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LANDOVER, Md. -- There's a new leader in the MVP race. Philip Rivers, listed before the NFL season as a 50-1 shot at Bovada to win, has rocketed to 4-1 odds and overtaken Peyton Manning as the betting favorite entering Week 6. Anyone inclined to protest should first watch a three-hour video presentation starring Rivers and his San Diego Chargers against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2.
Rivers became the fourth quarterback since the 2013 opener to beat Seattle, but he also produced the highest passer rating and Total QBR score against the Seahawks over that time. It was close to a perfect game against a defense unaccustomed to giving much ground. And it's a leading reason for Rivers topping my list of MVP candidates to this point.
Late Monday night, I solicited MVP insights from cornerback Richard Sherman and free safety Earl Thomas in the Seahawks' locker room following their 27-17 victory over the Washington Redskins at FedEx Field. They faced Aaron Rodgers, Rivers and Manning in their first three games. Sherman and Thomas split their votes at the top, with one favoring Rivers and the other taking Manning. I've sprinkled their thoughts into my ranking of the six leading candidates.
1. Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers (4-1 odds)
On pace for: 4,618 yards, 38 TDs, 6 INTs
"Rivers is playing great football, and he is playing with a team a lot of people did not expect to be as good as they are, to be executing like they are," Sherman said in casting his early vote for Rivers. "I would give it to him because I think he is doing a lot with less than other guys. He is a grinder in the game. He is a competitor. He is a fighter in the game. We had a play where we knocked the ball out of his hands, he juggled it, got it back and tossed it up. He is that kind of grind-it-out, gritty player, and that is what allows him to succeed."
Winning the AFC West would help differentiate Rivers from Manning, who figures to keep pace on the stat sheet and then some. Rivers solved the Seahawks' defense to a degree that Manning did not. That is another mark in his favor. He is completing 70.3 percent of his passes while leading the league in both passer rating (116.3) and Total QBR (84.8). Manning is right behind, however.
2. Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos (9-2)
On pace for: 5,172 yards, 48 TDs, 12 INTs
The interception pace doesn't mean much this early in the season: Rivers has thrown two and Manning has thrown three. It's early. Manning entered the season as a 3-1 MVP favorite ahead of Drew Brees (11-2). He likely would remain the odds-on favorite if he could have finished off the Seahawks in Seattle, but he never got the ball in overtime. No matter, according to one expert witness.
"I would go with Peyton Manning," Thomas said. "I just think he can see the field better than any quarterback. He understands the game. The game is so slow for him. I can just tell by the way that he played us. Even though we lost the game in San Diego, you have to add a lot of factors to that. It was so hot and we still had a chance to win at the end of the game. I had a good bead on him [Rivers]. I just think Peyton Manning is the better quarterback."
3. Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts (5-1)
On pace for: 5,174 yards, 45 TDs, 19 INTs
Luck is averaging a league-high 47 dropbacks per game, which would be the most over the course of a season since Matthew Stafford averaged 48.3 in 2012. Luck is a volume player, which reflects just how much the Colts rely upon him to carry their team. Luck is on pace for career highs in completion rate (68.1), yards per attempt (7.5), touchdowns, passer rating (100.0) and QBR (76.5).
"He gets better every year," Thomas said. "I was watching him Sunday just staying patient in the pocket and being able to feel what is going on around him without panicking. He does a great job with that."
Thomas said his top three would consist of Manning, DeMarco Murray and Luck.
4. DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys (6-1)
On pace for: 2,144 yards on 416 carries with 16 TDs
Murray is getting the opportunities he needs to factor now that the Cowboys have committed to running the ball a higher percentage of the time (even though they recently said they'll manage his workload). Murray's 130 carries are 46 more than he had through five games in any of his previous three seasons. He had 217 carries all last season and is now on pace to surpass that total in the first half of the Cowboys' ninth game.
"I have been playing him since college, and I always watch him now," Thomas said. "We had a rivalry. He was always a dynamic player. It's hard to tackle him in space. He put on some weight and it slowed him, but he is finding his mojo again. You can tell. They are finding their formula. That's all it is in football. You find what your team is good at, and you stick with it."
5. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers (8-1)
On pace for: 3,696 yards, 38 TDs, 3 INTs
Rodgers won the MVP for the 2011 season, when he averaged 309.5 yards passing per game and 9.3 yards per attempt with 45 TDs and six INTs. The raw numbers aren't quite there this season, but the Packers' offense is gaining momentum after rough road games against Seattle and Detroit.
6. J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans (20-1)
On pace for: 6.5 sacks
Watt has gone from 20.5 sacks in 2012 to 10.5 last season to two sacks through five games this season, making it tougher for him to command attention by his stats (although his game-changing pick-six in the Texans' win over the Bills helped with that). He remains widely acknowledged as the best defensive player in the league, however, and now the Texans are playing well enough to take a 3-2 record into Week 6. No defensive player has won the award since Lawrence Taylor did in 1986.
When I asked Sherman which defensive player, if any, he might consider worthy, he thought for a long time and said it was tough to think of one at this point. He then put in a plug for teammate Bobby Wagner, who should factor for the Pro Bowl, at least -- particularly with San Francisco's NaVorro Bowman sidelined.
Notes
Niners clamping down: The 49ers' defense is leading the league in yards per catch allowed at 3.6, well beneath the 5.3-yard league average. It's a testament to the way San Francisco has tackled and generally played with efficiency despite being without tackling machine Bowman and top pass-rusher Aldon Smith. Indianapolis (7.5), Atlanta (7.0) and New England (6.6) are at the other end. Seattle led the league in YAC allowed last season and ranked second to the 49ers entering Monday night.
Early read on Carr: The book on Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr coming out of Fresno State said he had plenty of talent but too frequently crumbled in the face of the rush. That dovetailed with the reputation his brother, David, developed during his career with the Houston Texans. But when an NFL assistant coach watched Carr against New England earlier this season, he didn't see a quarterback playing scared. "This Carr might be put together better mentally," the coach said. "My thoughts were that when it gets hot in the pocket, he may screw it up, but that has not happened. For a young guy, he is doing good." He added that this is especially true given the lack of supporting talent he has around him. "You cannot name a wide receiver for that team," he said.
Broncos' concerns: Manning can carry an offense, and there's a chance his current receiving corps can be better than the 2013 version, but for the Broncos to be at their best when it matters, they need to rediscover the ground game that made them whole late last season. That will be more difficult after Montee Ball suffered a groin injury that could sideline him for weeks.
Ball averaged 6.4 yards per carry on early downs from Week 13 last season into the divisional round of the playoffs. He has averaged 3.0 yards per carry on those runs since that time. Last season, Denver developed its ground game in time for cold-weather games. There's still time to do the same in 2014, but Ball's injury complicates those efforts in the short term, at least. Settling for 500-plus yards from a pass-heavy offense isn't a bad fallback, of course.
Rivers became the fourth quarterback since the 2013 opener to beat Seattle, but he also produced the highest passer rating and Total QBR score against the Seahawks over that time. It was close to a perfect game against a defense unaccustomed to giving much ground. And it's a leading reason for Rivers topping my list of MVP candidates to this point.
Late Monday night, I solicited MVP insights from cornerback Richard Sherman and free safety Earl Thomas in the Seahawks' locker room following their 27-17 victory over the Washington Redskins at FedEx Field. They faced Aaron Rodgers, Rivers and Manning in their first three games. Sherman and Thomas split their votes at the top, with one favoring Rivers and the other taking Manning. I've sprinkled their thoughts into my ranking of the six leading candidates.
1. Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers (4-1 odds)
On pace for: 4,618 yards, 38 TDs, 6 INTs
"Rivers is playing great football, and he is playing with a team a lot of people did not expect to be as good as they are, to be executing like they are," Sherman said in casting his early vote for Rivers. "I would give it to him because I think he is doing a lot with less than other guys. He is a grinder in the game. He is a competitor. He is a fighter in the game. We had a play where we knocked the ball out of his hands, he juggled it, got it back and tossed it up. He is that kind of grind-it-out, gritty player, and that is what allows him to succeed."
Winning the AFC West would help differentiate Rivers from Manning, who figures to keep pace on the stat sheet and then some. Rivers solved the Seahawks' defense to a degree that Manning did not. That is another mark in his favor. He is completing 70.3 percent of his passes while leading the league in both passer rating (116.3) and Total QBR (84.8). Manning is right behind, however.
2. Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos (9-2)
On pace for: 5,172 yards, 48 TDs, 12 INTs
The interception pace doesn't mean much this early in the season: Rivers has thrown two and Manning has thrown three. It's early. Manning entered the season as a 3-1 MVP favorite ahead of Drew Brees (11-2). He likely would remain the odds-on favorite if he could have finished off the Seahawks in Seattle, but he never got the ball in overtime. No matter, according to one expert witness.
"I would go with Peyton Manning," Thomas said. "I just think he can see the field better than any quarterback. He understands the game. The game is so slow for him. I can just tell by the way that he played us. Even though we lost the game in San Diego, you have to add a lot of factors to that. It was so hot and we still had a chance to win at the end of the game. I had a good bead on him [Rivers]. I just think Peyton Manning is the better quarterback."
3. Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts (5-1)
On pace for: 5,174 yards, 45 TDs, 19 INTs
Luck is averaging a league-high 47 dropbacks per game, which would be the most over the course of a season since Matthew Stafford averaged 48.3 in 2012. Luck is a volume player, which reflects just how much the Colts rely upon him to carry their team. Luck is on pace for career highs in completion rate (68.1), yards per attempt (7.5), touchdowns, passer rating (100.0) and QBR (76.5).
"He gets better every year," Thomas said. "I was watching him Sunday just staying patient in the pocket and being able to feel what is going on around him without panicking. He does a great job with that."
Thomas said his top three would consist of Manning, DeMarco Murray and Luck.
4. DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys (6-1)
On pace for: 2,144 yards on 416 carries with 16 TDs
Murray is getting the opportunities he needs to factor now that the Cowboys have committed to running the ball a higher percentage of the time (even though they recently said they'll manage his workload). Murray's 130 carries are 46 more than he had through five games in any of his previous three seasons. He had 217 carries all last season and is now on pace to surpass that total in the first half of the Cowboys' ninth game.
"I have been playing him since college, and I always watch him now," Thomas said. "We had a rivalry. He was always a dynamic player. It's hard to tackle him in space. He put on some weight and it slowed him, but he is finding his mojo again. You can tell. They are finding their formula. That's all it is in football. You find what your team is good at, and you stick with it."
5. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers (8-1)
On pace for: 3,696 yards, 38 TDs, 3 INTs
Rodgers won the MVP for the 2011 season, when he averaged 309.5 yards passing per game and 9.3 yards per attempt with 45 TDs and six INTs. The raw numbers aren't quite there this season, but the Packers' offense is gaining momentum after rough road games against Seattle and Detroit.
6. J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans (20-1)
On pace for: 6.5 sacks
Watt has gone from 20.5 sacks in 2012 to 10.5 last season to two sacks through five games this season, making it tougher for him to command attention by his stats (although his game-changing pick-six in the Texans' win over the Bills helped with that). He remains widely acknowledged as the best defensive player in the league, however, and now the Texans are playing well enough to take a 3-2 record into Week 6. No defensive player has won the award since Lawrence Taylor did in 1986.
When I asked Sherman which defensive player, if any, he might consider worthy, he thought for a long time and said it was tough to think of one at this point. He then put in a plug for teammate Bobby Wagner, who should factor for the Pro Bowl, at least -- particularly with San Francisco's NaVorro Bowman sidelined.
Notes
Niners clamping down: The 49ers' defense is leading the league in yards per catch allowed at 3.6, well beneath the 5.3-yard league average. It's a testament to the way San Francisco has tackled and generally played with efficiency despite being without tackling machine Bowman and top pass-rusher Aldon Smith. Indianapolis (7.5), Atlanta (7.0) and New England (6.6) are at the other end. Seattle led the league in YAC allowed last season and ranked second to the 49ers entering Monday night.
Early read on Carr: The book on Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr coming out of Fresno State said he had plenty of talent but too frequently crumbled in the face of the rush. That dovetailed with the reputation his brother, David, developed during his career with the Houston Texans. But when an NFL assistant coach watched Carr against New England earlier this season, he didn't see a quarterback playing scared. "This Carr might be put together better mentally," the coach said. "My thoughts were that when it gets hot in the pocket, he may screw it up, but that has not happened. For a young guy, he is doing good." He added that this is especially true given the lack of supporting talent he has around him. "You cannot name a wide receiver for that team," he said.
Broncos' concerns: Manning can carry an offense, and there's a chance his current receiving corps can be better than the 2013 version, but for the Broncos to be at their best when it matters, they need to rediscover the ground game that made them whole late last season. That will be more difficult after Montee Ball suffered a groin injury that could sideline him for weeks.
Ball averaged 6.4 yards per carry on early downs from Week 13 last season into the divisional round of the playoffs. He has averaged 3.0 yards per carry on those runs since that time. Last season, Denver developed its ground game in time for cold-weather games. There's still time to do the same in 2014, but Ball's injury complicates those efforts in the short term, at least. Settling for 500-plus yards from a pass-heavy offense isn't a bad fallback, of course.
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