Justin Herbert - Bolts Franchise QB Official Discussion

[NOrvMeNow]

STATS STATS STATS STATS.....

Kirk Cousins is always at the top of the stats too. People don't seem to understand the impact on WINNING that guys actually have. If Keenan was our number 2 he'd be great but still about done due to age. The stats you list actually show how bad the Chargers offense is. Imagine any real contending team depending on him to be the man.

I'd agree that Keenan would work better as a number 2: he's being taken away at key moments as is.

The rest is nonsense.

[Bolt4Knob]

Patrick Mahomes won the Super Bowl in February and his best receiver was 2 years older than Keenan is now. Try again.

You cannot compare the Chargers to the Chiefs

One team is battling for the Super Bowl - the other is looking at a top 10 pick

Of course if the Chargers were 6-1 - they would be buyers. But when you are 2-4 looking at 6-11 in the face, time to prudent and pragmatic building a roster.

Here is the thing - last spring, if Mike Williams had the Allen contract and Allen had the Mike Williams contract - I would have been saying get rid of Mike Williams.

Newsflash folks. I want to win games and if that means moving on from the likes of Allen, Bosa and Mack to build a long term roster - I am for it
As this shit they got on the field - winning one of every three or four years, its not working

[jamrock]

You cannot compare the Chargers to the Chiefs

One team is battling for the Super Bowl - the other is looking at a top 10 pick

Of course if the Chargers were 6-1 - they would be buyers. But when you are 2-4 looking at 6-11 in the face, time to prudent and pragmatic building a roster.

Here is the thing - last spring, if Mike Williams had the Allen contract and Allen had the Mike Williams contract - I would have been saying get rid of Mike Williams.

Newsflash folks. I want to win games and if that means moving on from the likes of Allen, Bosa and Mack to build a long term roster - I am for it
As this shit they got on the field - winning one of every three or four years, its not working

Don’t focus on the players. It’s the coaches and GM. Until that part is right the ship won’t sail

[Bolt4Knob]

Don’t focus on the players. It’s the coaches and GM. Until that part is right the ship won’t sail

I totally get that... I know it starts with the Spanii Telesco and the coaches. There is no way at this point that Telesco should have a job - so owner incompetence

But sometimes, teams trade players to get draft capital to rebuild the roster. Hence, trade some players, maybe get some draft capital and fire Telesco and hope you get lucky again with a GM like butler who not only builds a roster but hires a quality head coach who hires quality assistant coaches

[Formula 21]

When NFL quarterbacks can’t make choices, defenses decide for them
Sally Jenkins

It’s hard to throw a touchdown pass when you’re buried under a 300-pound lineman. Forget passing yardage and all the shinier stats of quarterbacking. The most telling measure of a quarterback’s performance is sack rate, and it might be the most damning. Washington’s Sam Howell, or any other young quarterback for that matter, needs to get with that math if he wants to be NFL-capable, much less the franchise’s answer.[/COLOR]


As analytics go, it’s as good a predictor as any of a player’s potential. And it’s not a particularly forgiving one, because it tends to put the lie to that idea: “If only he had more help on the offensive line.” A QB with great pre- and post-snap judgments can bail out the most collapsing unit. Proof? Eli Manning won a Super Bowl after the 2011 season behind a unit that Pro Football Focus ranked 31st in the league. Any discussion of Howell’s record-pace sack total, with 40 in just seven games, of course must start with the merciful acknowledgment that no statistic is wholly on one person but is entangled among 11 teammates. Still, sack rate ultimately reflects the personal actions of the quarterback: his reads, recognition, clarity, decisiveness.

Perspectives and analysis on the NFL
The most interesting thing about the sack rate stat — and the reason it’s such a useful, if undervalued, scouting measure — is that the number travels. It follows a quarterback like a bad rear fender making a funny noise behind a car. Guys who get sacked a lot do it no matter who they play for, making offensive lines look instantly guilty. Howell had a high sack rate in college, yielding 47 his senior year. Brock Purdy? Never suffered more than 21 in college. Jalen Hurts’s high was just 24 between Alabama and Oklahoma. Sack rate is a consistent tell, “not only when QBs change teams, but when teams change QBs,” says Jason Lisk, a data analyst and writer for the website Team Rankings. Example: In the space of a single offseason between 2017 and 2018, the Indianapolis Colts’ sack rate dropped from more than 10 percent to just 2.7 percent, best in the NFL. The main reason? Andrew Luck — who missed the 2017 season with a shoulder injury — returned to replace a young Jacoby Brissett.

It’s no accident that the quarterback with the lowest sack rate in the modern era is Peyton Manning (3.1 percent, tied with Dan Marino), or that Patrick Mahomes (3.8), Drew Brees (3.8) and Tom Brady (4.5) also rank among the 10 lowest sack yielders. The Denver Broncos saw a miraculous improvement in a single summer in 2012, when Tim Tebow and his 10.9 percent sack rate departed and in came Manning, who though aging and zipper-necked after disc surgery, promptly plunged Denver’s sack rate to 3.4 percent, simply because he knew where the pressure was coming from and where he was going with the ball.

Mathematically, sacks are as bad, or in some cases worse, than turnovers. This is obviously counterintuitive to a young quarterback like Howell, with that tantalizingly pneumatic arm. He appears to think that holding the ball for something to develop, then eating it and taking the hit, for a sack rate of 13.5 percent, is better than a mistake or throwing it away — or dumping it off to Antonio Gibson, who has just 15 catches. It’s not. It’s really, really, not. The numbers bear this out.

According to numbers compiled by The Post’s Neil Greenberg, Howell has taken at least one sack on 32 drives this season — and his big-play potential has been unable to make up for those, with the Commanders punting on 59 percent of those possessions. That’s a huge donation of ground and clock time to the opposition, and it has a measurable effect on the scoreboard. Since 2018, according to the website TruMedia, an NFL sack has cost a team about 1.7 points. One way to think of Howell’s six sacks last week against the Giants is that that he might as well have given up 10 points. Lisk observes, “Your ideal interception rate isn’t zero. If you throw zero interceptions and took six sacks, you’re probably worse off.”

One of the best-ever explainers of how costly sacks are was David Cutcliffe. Now retired, Cutcliffe was the fellow who coached such unhesitating, flashing recognition into both the Mannings, first at Tennessee with Peyton and then with Eli at Ole Miss. Cutcliffe always likened the field maelstrom for a quarterback to “air traffic control, and it’s fast.” He wanted such decisiveness from his quarterbacks that he got impatient if a guy even hesitated over a menu. He swears he used the “menu test” as a recruiting filter. If a kid paused and said, “What looks good to you?” Cutcliffe crossed him off the list.

The Mannings under Cutcliffe learned to make judgments in just three clicks, “Presnap, post-snap, alarm,” Cutcliffe demanded. Presnap assessment was about making sure you were in the right play and protection, or adjusting it. Post-snap, you had to make an instant assessment as to whether your presnap judgment was right or wrong, and if it was wrong, “go like hell” to get out of it, Cutcliffe taught. If you got to the “alarm” stage, “Now we’re bad wrong,” he explained.

“If you’re not careful, what you end up doing is making a decision by indecision,” Cutcliffe said. “And that’s the worst one you make. Decision by indecision — you catch yourself flat footed while you’re waiting for an answer. Any time you hold the ball, you have already made a mistake, because the decision is going to be made for you. You’re going to be sacked or force a ball or quite likely turn it over.”

It’s not a bad description of how Howell’s been playing this season. A second-year QB is learning on the job, and the good news is that enlightenment can come at any moment. But he’s reaching the alarm stage all too often. And decisions are being made for him.[/COLOR]

[JOJAX85]

You know what, removing the tunnel vision Herbert has for Keenan so he stops locking in on him and forcing him the ball might be a good thing for Herbert and this team in the long run.

That was just a thought. I am fine with moving on from Williams, Mack , Bosa and think Keenan is the one veteran we should keep

Allen is Herbert's Joiner to Fouts. One of the greatest compliments I ever heard Fouts give Joiner was, "On 3rd.Down, I knew what he was going to do, I knew where he was going to be and I knew he was going to catch it". Can't blame Herbert for seeking out Allen. He doesn't have a Winslow nor a JJ or Chandler.

[Formula 21]

Interesting article. I think both Lombardi and Moore stressed this, make a decision and get the ball out of your hand.

[Wrbanwal]

That was a good read Formula. Thanks.

Wonder what those stats look like the last five years?

[BigBad]

We all know the defense is garbage.

Since Week 2, the Chargers have a designed rushing success rate of 22 percent. That is the worst rate in the league, according to TruMedia. No other team is below 27 percent.

So Hebert has no defense and no running game.

Yet the media only wants to talk about the QB.

[richpjr]

We all know the defense is garbage.



So Hebert has no defense and no running game.

Yet the media only wants to talk about the QB.

He also has a busted finger, is without his #2 WR and his all-pro center.

Football is a team game and QBs get too much credit when a team wins and when they lose but there are few QBs in the league who have to carry their team more than Herbert. If he has an off game, they simply won't win.

[Bolt4Knob]

He also has a busted finger, is without his #2 WR and his all-pro center.

Football is a team game and QBs get too much credit when a team wins and when they lose but there are few QBs in the league who have to carry their team more than Herbert. If he has an off game, they simply won't win.

And this Monday against the Jets, good defense. The Al Woods loss on the DLine - see how that hurts the run game and pass rush. That being said, the Chiefs and Cowboys really pressured Herbert. I hope Moore paid attention and compensates for that to give Herbert the extra time to make plays. As if you give a QB time, they can make plays

[dmac_bolt]

He also has a busted finger, is without his #2 WR and his all-pro center.

Football is a team game and QBs get too much credit when a team wins and when they lose but there are few QBs in the league who have to carry their team more than Herbert. If he has an off game, they simply won't win.

I think yes and no. QBs cannot win games all by themselves, they do need a team. But a QB can definitely not-win or even lose a game all by himself even with the best team around him. QBs are paid according to their positional importance and scarcity of elite talent.