Joshua Kelley, RB, UCLA - Discussion

[equivocation]

Absolutely. And AP was worth the pick when he was taken. But how many running backs in the last 20 years (it's been so long since LT was drafted) have been worth it? You basically have to be an all time great HOF RB to justify the pick. I just wouldn't be confident enough that any player would be that level player at the point I drafted them.

Like look at what has happened with Zeke and Gurley. Probably two of the top 5 backs we've had in the last decade. Even if they reach their ceiling they fall off so quickly and cost so much on that second contract.

LT and AP are it for me in the last 20 years. A few more years and Faulk was worth a first.

I can't think of another. That's the standard. 8 to 10 years of top 5 production with mutliple years at the top. Versatility helps.

There have been so many top 10 RBs who were not top picks.

[sonorajim]

LT and AP are it for me in the last 20 years. A few more years and Faulk was worth a first.

I can't think of another. That's the standard. 8 to 10 years of top 5 production with mutliple years at the top. Versatility helps.

There have been so many top 10 RBs who were not top picks.

Beast Mode (1st). MJD (2nd), Frank Gore (3rd), Early guys. Top RBs after the 3rd are relatively rare.

[equivocation]

2020

Aaron Jones - 5th
James Robinson - UDFA
David Montgomery - 3rd

2019

Chris Carson -7th
Marlon Mack - 4th
Aaron Jones - 5th

2018

Chris Carson - 7th
Phillip Lindsay -UDFA

2017

Kareem Hunt - 3rd
Jordan Howard -5th
CJ Anderson - UDFA

2016

Jordan Howard - 5th
DeMarco Murray -3rd
Jay Ajayi - 5th
David Johnson - 3rd
LaGarrette Blount - UDFA
Devonta Freeman - 4th
Lamar Miller - 4th


It goes on. Plus guys like Kamara (3rd) and Ekeler (UDFA). And there were a lot of good backs taken in the 2nd, which I think is okay for an elite RB. 2nd round RBs have arguably done better than 1st round RBs.

[like54ninjas]

Exceptional Special Talents, regardless of position, are worthy of high draft capital.

Rule of thumb…..

Top 20 = QB1, EDGE, OT, PCB, IDL (passrush traits)

Top 50 = OC, DS, ILB, NCB

Top 150 = WR, TE, OG, QB2

After 151 = NT, FB, PK, PT, STA, LS

[Maniaque 6]

If I remember well, T. Dorsett and E. Campbell were early picks in late 70's.

[powderblueboy]

There is just no way I would ever draft one in the first round. If they turn out to not be a top 5 back then you wasted your pick. If the do turn out to be a top 5 back you have to pay them a lot on their second contract and that can really bite you in the ass. Or you can let them walk after their first contract and then basically you only got 5 years out of your first round pick when you were correct on the evaluation. Yeah, 5 years of a probowl RB is better than no probowl years of Jerry Tillery, but the ceiling for what you can get out of other positions is just so much higher.

That is generally true of any player drafted in the 1rst. If Tillery turns into a decent player, does that make it a good pick? You can find plenty of defensive tackles picked in later rounds that became top players.

Mathews was chosen because LT left; Gordan was chosen because Mathews left.
They were neither the best selection, nor bad selections; but they were chosen because of a pressing team need.

Chargers next year can be selective; but if a bigger rb is the top player left in the 1rst, chargers should take him.

[powderblueboy]

2020

Aaron Jones - 5th
James Robinson - UDFA
David Montgomery - 3rd

2019

Chris Carson -7th
Marlon Mack - 4th
Aaron Jones - 5th

2018

Chris Carson - 7th
Phillip Lindsay -UDFA

2017

Kareem Hunt - 3rd
Jordan Howard -5th
CJ Anderson - UDFA

2016

Jordan Howard - 5th
DeMarco Murray -3rd
Jay Ajayi - 5th
David Johnson - 3rd
LaGarrette Blount - UDFA
Devonta Freeman - 4th
Lamar Miller - 4th


It goes on. Plus guys like Kamara (3rd) and Ekeler (UDFA). And there were a lot of good backs taken in the 2nd, which I think is okay for an elite RB. 2nd round RBs have arguably done better than 1st round RBs.

Other than David Johnson, Kamara & Ekeler, none of these players knock my socks off.
No doubt, some drafts will have elite runners available in the 3rd rounds.

[sonorajim]

2021 Lindy's #1 RBs , 18ea.
Three #1s, Eight 2nds, Three 3rds, One 5th - Jones, One 7th- Carson, 2 CFAs,. Ekeler, Robinson.
14 from draft rounds 1-3, four later. There are always anomalies but this is a typical distribution.

[Steve]

How do you measure explosion?

By watching them play football.

[wu-dai clan]

Still like JJ over Kelley.

[TexanBeerlover]

Not like Chargers are a running team, but you need balance and other teams are in the same boat so will have to wait & see whatever movement in roster cuts/waivers now.

[sonorajim]

Still like JJ over Kelley.

JJ gets a maybe from me. I liked his Steelers game. Don't like his injury struggles. We need RB depth that can take the field in games.
Kelley looks more reliable. Should be an open competition for RB #2. See what Rountree & Bradwell have in TC & preseason.