2021 Draft Discussion - Bolts Pick 13th

[like54ninjas]

Once again, I love Sewell, but let's really look at what it would cost. I think our first and second this year and maybe a 3rd next year to move up to Carolina's spot.

Let's just say we could get Darrisaw and Cosmi with those two picks. Let's assign some values to likely outcomes for these players. This is where people get into trouble. We really overestimate how good the top players will be.

Perennial probowl caliber (Top 5 LT): Sewell 20%, Darrisaw 10%, Cosmi 5%.
Above average starter (Top 6-11 LT): Sewell 20%, Darrisaw 15%, Cosmi 10%
Average starter (Top 12-23 LT): Sewell 20%, Darrisaw 20%, Cosmi 20%
Below average starter (Remaining starting tackles): Sewell 20%, Darrisaw 25%, Cosmi 25%
Bust (Not starting caliber): Sewell 20%, Darrisaw 30%, Cosmi 40%.

Those are pretty reasonable numbers. I think I'm being a little longer to Sewell and harder on Darrisaw than history suggests, but I like Sewell.

Sewell has a 60% chance of being an average starter or better. Darrisaw and Cosmi have an 80% chance one of them become an above average starter or better and a 16% both turn into average or better starters (assume one moves to RT). Additionally, it costs am extra third to get Sewell.

You scenario is completely subjective. It comes down to how you have the prospects graded and their future projections. This will be different by team as team boards vary greatly.

So for me, as the Charger GM/Head Armchair Scout, I have Sewell graded as the #1 overall prospect. He is worth #13, #47, #185, and 2 - (2022) picks. If I can get him for less by targeting him at trade up for #7 instead of #4, I can accept that as our team’s plan and live if he goes earlier.
Now I do have 2 other OT prospects graded as plus or equivalent value @#13 in Little (risk of time off/projection of future success) and Jenkins but both of those carry much greater risk of success than Sewell.

My evil genius plan that has been brewing lately is the idea that most pundits think Little is going mid day 2.
Trade #13, #97, #159 & 1st-2022 for #7.
#7 - Penei Sewell
#47 - Walker Little
#77 - Ifeatu Melifonwu

[Bolt4Knob]

Patriots, Packers, Colts (since Ballard took over), Steelers, and the Eagles have been teams that have historically generally acquired additional draft capital by trading down and/or letting FAs walk to gain comp picks.

You can evaluate the success or failure of these teams how you would like.

Ravens have been very good about the compensatory pick strategy. Its why they have not signed any free agents that will offset them getting I believe 3rd and 4th rounders next spring - until next Tuesday.

Playing the comp pick game just to play it - not smart. You have to sign the better free agent if the dollars are reasonable. Same with trading down - activity for activity doesn't mean squat

I guess with Telesco he really has never traded down - only up with minimal success. I guess Gordon was moderate and Murray is tbd. And he doesn't play the comp game - one of the bottom of the league.

At best he is an average GM to me so taking away more picks in the hopes he nails Sewell - I think is the wrong strategy for Telesco. I want him to work harder actually and dig deeper into prospects

[electricgold]

I've got a strategy and think I've been clear about it... am not enamored by the talent in the top of the first, as much prefer trading down and taking my chances closer to the bottom of round one.... thx all the same,

Watched some film on TE Pro Wells see you have him on your list..... This guy would fit in nicely with the TE's we have hope we get him later in the draft.

[like54ninjas]

Patriots, Packers, Colts (since Ballard took over), Steelers, and the Eagles have been teams that have historically generally acquired additional draft capital by trading down and/or letting FAs walk to gain comp picks.

You can evaluate the success or failure of these teams how you would like.

Steelers rarely trade down or up. The stand Pat and pick when they are slotted. They are not active in FA. A true build through the draft franchise.
Colts have had moderate success but are looking for a long term solution at QB. TPD.
Patsies lots of picks but very limited success in those picks. Just spent $200+ in UFA’s to compensate for failed drafts. No TB12 no playoffs.
Eagles has had success in small runs over the past 20 years.
Packers have had AR. They have drafted well. Made 1 trade and 1 monster FA signing in the 90’s that lead to their SB.

[Boltjolt]

I've got a strategy and think I've been clear about it... am not enamored by the talent in the top of the first, as much prefer trading down and taking my chances closer to the bottom of round one.... thx all the same,

I wouldn't mind a trade down but don't want to go to the bottom of round one and doubt we are trading down three times. There are some good players, maybe just not the positions you are targeting

[eaterfan]

You scenario is completely subjective. It comes down to how you have the prospects graded and their future projections. This will be different by team as team boards vary greatly.

So for me, as the Charger GM/Head Armchair Scout, I have Sewell graded as the #1 overall prospect. He is worth #13, #47, #185, and 2 - (2022) picks. If I can get him for less by targeting him at trade up for #7 instead of #4, I can accept that as our team’s plan and live if he goes earlier.
Now I do have 2 other OT prospects graded as plus or equivalent value @#13 in Little (risk of time off/projection of future success) and Jenkins but both of those carry much greater risk of success than Sewell.

My evil genius plan that has been brewing lately is the idea that most pundits think Little is going mid day 2.
Trade #13, #97, #159 & 1st-2022 for #7.
#7 - Penei Sewell
#47 - Walker Little
#77 - Ifeatu Melifonwu

But mine isn't completely subjective. Mine is based around a 40% bust rate for 1st round OTs and a bit higher for 2nd round OTs. I halved that for Sewell because he has a top 5-10 grade from most draft scouts. Darrisaw is about that since he has a mid first grade and I put Cosmi at the lower end because he's a late first early second round grade.

I'm sure people have looked at it, but going through each OT drafted in the first 10 picks, the second 10 picks, and so on and see how they've done. I'd imagine I'm not terribly far off from my numbers. Now, that's comparing draft positions to draft projections, but generally no one is better than average at picking players successfully, so differing on the consensus is just as likely to be wrong as right. And that's kind of the point as to why acquiring more draft capital had usually been a pretty successful strategy.

If Sewell turns out to be the best OT in football the next decade he's definitely worth 3 first round picks, but I think we are greatly overestimating the chances he is close to that.

[equivocation]

The thing about trading down is that teams don't trade up just for the slot. They are targeting specific players. It's more of an opportunity than a strategy.

I prefer trading down as I see a lot of value in the 20 to 50 range and this team needs lunch pail types but you can't count on it.

[powderblueboy]

I really hope he nails the LT in the draft, but I gotta give him credit for addressing the IOL, which IMV was more problematic than the tackles (although it was all terrible).

I feel like I’m all pre-drafted out. Rarely is anything said that hasn’t already been hashed and rehashed. Thinking of inducing an 8 day coma.

There has been absolutely no discussion on how the draft should be tailored to attack KCs weaknesses and fortify against their strengths.

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[like54ninjas]

How many here think Walker Little will be OTB @#47?

[Silversurfer]

There has been absolutely no discussion on how the draft should be tailored to attack KCs weaknesses and fortify against their strengths.

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Only hope is that Mahomo or Tyreek child beater hill gets injured. We have always matched up well with them in games. Maybe this year we don't beat ourselves without Lynnsanity as our coach. With a LT and a solid line protecting J.H maybe we can compete in a shoot out.

[gzubeck]

You scenario is completely subjective. It comes down to how you have the prospects graded and their future projections. This will be different by team as team boards vary greatly.

So for me, as the Charger GM/Head Armchair Scout, I have Sewell graded as the #1 overall prospect. He is worth #13, #47, #185, and 2 - (2022) picks. If I can get him for less by targeting him at trade up for #7 instead of #4, I can accept that as our team’s plan and live if he goes earlier.
Now I do have 2 other OT prospects graded as plus or equivalent value @#13 in Little (risk of time off/projection of future success) and Jenkins but both of those carry much greater risk of success than Sewell.

My evil genius plan that has been brewing lately is the idea that most pundits think Little is going mid day 2.
Trade #13, #97, #159 & 1st-2022 for #7.
#7 - Penei Sewell
#47 - Walker Little
#77 - Ifeatu Melifonwu

Detroit GM would look like a genius for doing this and Tom Telesco would for sure get fired! The other two picks and Telesco keeps his job without giving away the farm.

Sorry didn't realize you were not giving away our second rounder. Two firsts should be sufficient but hey throw in a fourth or fifth rounder anyway.

[gzubeck]

How many here think Walker Little will be OTB @#47?

Depends on what the top 8 teams do in the draft. If Cinci, detroit, or Carolina don't take slater or sewel they will take little before #47.