2021 Draft Discussion - Bolts Pick 13th

[BayAreaBoltz]

LOL...if that happens, you will probably have your choice of best rush LB(Parsons) best coverage/blitz LB(JOK) best Guard prospect since Q Williams(AVT) and best Edge(Phillips)....nothing to Boo Hoo about....you take a star and move on....if those players are the consolation prize, I'll consider myself consoled....

I guess? I mean, I think I'd boo hoo, since our biggest needs (OT, CB, and S). And I would love to address OT or CB with one of those top 3 at each position. Missing out on that, we fill those spots with less-skilled. So, yes, I'd love an edge or LB. But, our needs, according to Staley, are OT and CB.

[Topcat]

Let’s play a game.
What’s the draft order of OTs?

R1
1. Sewell (33 1/4”)
2. Slater (33”)
3. Darrisaw (34 1/2”)
4. Jenkins (33 1/2”)
R2
5. Radunz (34”)
6. Little (33 3/4”)
7. Cosmi (33”)
8. Brown (34 3/4”)
R3
9. D’Ante (35 1/4”)
10. Ball (35”)

No I haven’t forgotten Mayfield or Leatherwood or Eich. But they don’t crack the top 10.

*edit* adding arm length

No AVT-Rex? Jeremiah has him ranked as the 3rd best OT after Slater and Sewell...

https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-50-2021-nfl-draft-prospect-rankings-3-0https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-50-2021-nfl-draft-prospect-rankings-3-0

[Topcat]

The quote from Polian that TT pulled up recently explains why he will not trade down.

"If Dwight Freeney is good enough to draft at 20, he's good enough to draft at 11."

Fluker got drafted @#11...

[Topcat]

Here's another arm length chart that shows a lot of T-Rexes playing at a high level:

arm-length 2.jpg

https://www.pff.com/news/does-arm-length-affect-ot-play

[Topcat]

Any guesses on which one is Fluker?

Fluke must be this one:

fluke chart.JPG

[Topcat]

Shudda read the Escalator Clause.

Alright you
Trenchers with tight sphincters.

About this arm length shite...

Are you even aware that AVT was dinged up vs Thibodeaux ?

As Ben Fennell just stated on GAC podcast, arm length is but one factor. It is to be combined with other components, such as game tape, and ability to compensate with technique, like independent hand work.

Let's take other measurables. There is the forty time and there is the 10 yard split. Cannot leave out the 3 Cone or the Short Shuttle. But then there is this thing called "ease of movement." You see, effective NFL athleticism is not based merely on results from a track meet, an electronic timer or a tape measure.

So who do you want, Leatherwood or Slater ?

I'm just getting started...

Here's some further background on AVT's going up against Thibodeaux:

avt.JPG

https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/lists/2021-nfl-draft-offensive-tackles-penei-sewell-rashawn-slater/

[Bolt Dude]

No AVT-Rex? Jeremiah has him ranked as the 3rd best OT after Slater and Sewell...

https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jere...t-rankings-3-0

He’s a lock as a guard, but there are some questions as a tackle. So I think whoever drafts him will play him inside first. He may very well end up as a tackle, but not immediately.

If I’m wrong I’d be pleasantly surprised.

[Formula 21]

Here's some further background on AVT's going up against Thibodeaux:

avt.JPG
https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/l...ashawn-slater/

Id be happy with AVT too. Brings a higher floor to a “don’t miss” draft slot.

[equivocation]

Take away the sacks he gave up, and he gave up fewer sacks!

[equivocation]

Fluke must be this one:

fluke chart.JPG

Has anyone actually validated this data? It's always tough using pfffff with proprietary data but I just went through the combine numbers of every starting OT in the AFC that year and the only 2 I could find with arms under 33" are Tyson Clabo (32.75") and Michael Roos (32"). I couldnt find data on Chris Clark, Cameron Bradfield, and Austin Howard.

Unless all the short arm OTs are in the NFC that constellation skews WAY to the left from published data. Or theyre using a bunch of backups with low snap counts and "normalizing" to 500 snaps? Either way, seems super misleading.

[DragonIce]

No AVT-Rex? Jeremiah has him ranked as the 3rd best OT after Slater and Sewell...

https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jere...t-rankings-3-0

I find your list with the only evaluation/measurement being "arm length"....misleading. I could use other words, but I'm a gentleman. At least sometimes. :cheers:

It's a very valid consideration. But if that's all it was...let's just go looking for big long-armed dudes down on the streets. You could find 40 a day if you tried.

[Steve]

It's a biased sample to begin with.

How many guys have the bulk to play OL in the NFL and not have a frame that is 6'3" or more? Pretty small number. A lot of the guys who are 6'6" or longer, just don't have the bulk. And how many of guys who are on the short arm/heavy side are athletic enough to be NFL OL, which is a pretty small subset of the overall population to begin with.

Plus, the coaching bias that believes in this nonsense is already putting guys with short arms at DT and interior OL, so not that many of them are even getting the chance.

The other thing they are doing is using the overall grade player had. So some (most) of the players on that list have very, very small sample sizes. It is hard to use a graph like that and include everyone. It would have been nice if they had color coded them by the number of pass blocking snaps or something. The normalizing thing they did was nice from a comparison standpoint, but it assumes that guys with low snap counts are just as good as 10 year starters, and PFF own work shows that OL tend to peak around year 4, so normalizing alone is not enough.