2021 Draft Discussion - Bolts Pick 13th

[Parcells]

I see nothing here written about Radunz with less than 2 weeks to go.

From what I gather on Radunz, he's that classic project. Sometimes with projects you get Courtney Van Buren or Trey Pipkins and sometimes you get David Bakhtiari. He feels like a classic Chargers pick who then doesn't develop.

[Parcells]

Agree. That 2019 Notre Dame tape wasn’t his best. He made big steps towards being a complete LT in the 2020 season.

I think with Darrisaw you're drafting him at 13 based in part on what he showed this year and in part what he's shown from a trajectory. Then there's the fact that he has physician traits that just aren't common. He's not the guy I'm in love with at 13, but I don't think he lasts much beyond 13 if we pass on him or trade back. Furthermore, I feel more and more confident that Sewell and Slater are both off the board by 11. I don't think Slater makes it past the NYG. They may end up trading back, but we can't count on that. If we want Sewell of Slater, we have to trade up. If we want Darrisaw, we probably have to take him at 13. And while I'm not in love with him at 13, I've come to accept it. Now Darrisaw at 19 or 20, that's a different story.

[Bolt Dude]

For those zeroing in on pass protection, here’s some excellent data:


True Pass Sets represent snaps in which an offensive tackle pass-protects specifically without play-action, rollouts, and screens, with more than a three-man rush, and with between two and four seconds to throw the ball. This gives a more accurate picture of true pass protection.


In 212 true pass sets in 2018 and 2019, Sewell allowed one sack, two quarterback hits, and six quarterback hurries.

Slater allowed five sacks and 35 total pressures in true pass sets as a right tackle in 2017 and 2018. He cleaned that up to a monstrous degree when moving to the left side in 2019, with no sacks, no quarterback hits, and three quarterback hurries on 142 sets.

In 291 career true pass sets, Darrisaw allowed three sacks, four quarterback hits, and 17 quarterback hurries. He allowed zero sacks and just six pressures on 269 pass-blocking snaps last season, according to Pro Football Focus.

In 495 true pass sets (a comparatively high number in this class) over three seasons, Cosmi allowed just three sacks and 23 total pressures.

You have to go back a ways to find the numbers, but over 680 NCAA pass-blocking snaps, Little allowed just 22 total pressures — four sacks, four quarterback hits, and 14 quarterback hurries. All four of those sacks, three hits, and 11 pressures came on true pass sets.

Source: https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/l...wn-slater/amp/

[Bolt Dude]

I hate to do this again, but if you have an hour and a quarter listen to today's Athletic Football show. They go DEEP into offensive line prospects with Brandon Thorne, line guru.

It's free.

https://theathletic.com/podcast/211-...w/?episode=121

This link sends me to a podcast about AAA baseball from 2019.

[Topcat]

For those zeroing in on pass protection, here’s some excellent data:


True Pass Sets represent snaps in which an offensive tackle pass-protects specifically without play-action, rollouts, and screens, with more than a three-man rush, and with between two and four seconds to throw the ball. This gives a more accurate picture of true pass protection.


In 212 true pass sets in 2018 and 2019, Sewell allowed one sack, two quarterback hits, and six quarterback hurries.

Slater allowed five sacks and 35 total pressures in true pass sets as a right tackle in 2017 and 2018. He cleaned that up to a monstrous degree when moving to the left side in 2019, with no sacks, no quarterback hits, and three quarterback hurries on 142 sets.

In 291 career true pass sets, Darrisaw allowed three sacks, four quarterback hits, and 17 quarterback hurries. He allowed zero sacks and just six pressures on 269 pass-blocking snaps last season, according to Pro Football Focus.

In 495 true pass sets (a comparatively high number in this class) over three seasons, Cosmi allowed just three sacks and 23 total pressures.

You have to go back a ways to find the numbers, but over 680 NCAA pass-blocking snaps, Little allowed just 22 total pressures — four sacks, four quarterback hits, and 14 quarterback hurries. All four of those sacks, three hits, and 11 pressures came on true pass sets.

Source: https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/l...wn-slater/amp/

Good info...so, if we go CB or D-line @#13, Cosmi at #47 starting to look pretty good...

[eaterfan]

This link sends me to a podcast about AAA baseball from 2019.

Hmmm. Sorry buddy, it works for me. Just Google "Athletic NFL Show" and I'm sure it will come up for you.

[Bolt Dude]

Good info...so, if we go CB or D-line @#13, Cosmi at #47 starting to look pretty good...

I’d keep in mind 2 things:

1. These are college stats. When transposing the data for NFL play it’s important to take arm length into account.

2. The ACC has more quality pass rushers than the other conferences. This year, there are more draftable edge prospects from the ACC than Big 10, SEC, Big 12, and Pac 12...combined.

[Bolt4Knob]

Good info...so, if we go CB or D-line @#13, Cosmi at #47 starting to look pretty good...

Little or Cosmi

[eaterfan]

Good info...so, if we go CB or D-line @#13, Cosmi at #47 starting to look pretty good...

I think there's a better chance Slater makes it to 13 than Cosmi makes it to 47. I read a lot of mock drafts and at this point it seems like Slater makes it to us at 13 about 33% of the time and Cosmi getting to 47 is about 20%. Anything can happen and I also think how early Slater goes and if the Chargers take an OT at 13 will obviously impact whether Cosmi hits at 47. Honestly, I wouldn't be upset if they took both if they were available at our 13th and 47th picks.

[Bolt Dude]

I think there's a better chance Slater makes it to 13 than Cosmi makes it to 47. I read a lot of mock drafts and at this point it seems like Slater makes it to us at 13 about 33% of the time and Cosmi getting to 47 is about 20%. Anything can happen and I also think how early Slater goes and if the Chargers take an OT at 13 will obviously impact whether Cosmi hits at 47. Honestly, I wouldn't be upset if they took both if they were available at our 13th and 47th picks.

Here’s the odds in my head...

At #13:
Sewell 5%
Slater 40%
Darrisaw 80%
Jenkins 90%

At #47:
Jenkins 5%
Radunz 20%
Cosmi 40%
Little 65%
Spencer Brown 75%
D’Ante Smith 90%

*33” arms cut off eliminates Christensen, Eichenberg, and AVT.

[TexanBeerlover]

Here’s the odds in my head...

At #13:
Sewell 5%
Slater 40%
Darrisaw 80%
Jenkins 90%

At #47:
Jenkins 5%
Radunz 20%
Cosmi 40%
Little 65%
Spencer Brown 75%
D’Ante Smith 90%

*33” arms cut off eliminates Christensen, Eichenberg, and AVT.

Sewell 5%
Slater 20%
Darrisaw 30%
Jenkins 50%
Cosmi 99%

Jenkins 1%
Cosmi 10%
Radunz 25%
Brown 60%
Little 70%

AVT is a plug n play elite OG who has versatility to kick outside if needed. Eichenbert a strep below AVT and Christensen inside, possibly Center as best position eventually.

[Bolt Dude]

Sewell 5%
Slater 20%
Darrisaw 30%
Jenkins 50%
Cosmi 99%

Jenkins 1%
Cosmi 10%
Radunz 25%
Brown 60%
Little 70%

AVT is a plug n play elite OG who has versatility to kick outside if needed. Eichenbert a strep below AVT and Christensen inside, possibly Center as best position eventually.

Interesting. Only 30% that Darrisaw makes it to #13? 50% for Jenkins? How do you see that playing out?

There’s a chance that a team might favor Darrisaw over Slater just because of physical traits, but that would elevate Slater’s odds to more than 20%.

If 3 teams in the top 12 go OT, it’d be CIN, CAR, and DAL. But I can’t see 4 teams taking an OT before us. There’s no way.