2022 TPB Members and Pundits Mock Draft Thread

[Boltnut]

6.5 sacks in 2 seasons is not a lot of sacks at the NCAA level for a first round edge draft pick. Why would we expect he gets more sacks as a pro? I didn’t think he looks fast on tape, but maybe i just can’t tell. The kid from FL State looks fast around the edge. He had 12 sacks last season.

IMO, Jermaine Johnson would be worth the #17 pick. Obvious speed and bend.

[Boltnut]

NFL OL get bull rushed by players weaker than Karlaftis.

Bull rush is not just about power. It's about timing and winning the hand battle.

Still haven't watched his film but "not strong enough to bull rush NFL OL" isn't really a thing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3YuioqgnAVc

[dmac_bolt]

He played 2 games last year. That's disingenuous. 7.5 sacks and 17 TFL as a frosh.

I do like JJ though.

So he’s an injury risk. He played 12 games last year and had 4.5 sacks. Thats mediocre at the college level for an elite edge rusher. If he can’t get to NCAA QBs, its not going to be easier at the next level. My own Cam Thomas at SDSU had 11.5 sacks and he’s a 2nd to 3rd rounder

[equivocation]

So he’s an injury risk. He played 12 games last year and had 4.5 sacks. Thats mediocre at the college level for an elite edge rusher. If he can’t get to NCAA QBs, its not going to be easier at the next level. My own Cam Thomas at SDSU had 11.5 sacks and he’s a 2nd to 3rd rounder

Joey Bosa had 5 sacks his last year in college.

Once again, sacks have low predictive value and low stability year over year.

[equivocation]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3YuioqgnAVc

I'll get to it eventually. I only have an hour or two a week for film. I like to watch at least 3 games 3x or 4x each. If I went off everyone's worst game I'd never want to draft anyone.

[beachcomber]

first three rounds clusters:

WR Garrett Wilson, Jameson Williams
ED Jermaine Johnson II

CB Kyler Gordon
RT Daniel Faalele

TE Cade Otton

[AK47]

Faalele will be a very good RT in NFL.
Starter as a rookie.
Potential pro bowl player by year 3.

Good looking prospect but speed rush? Any good tape of ANY prospect going against NFL caliber explosive speed rushers.

[Boltinloudguy]

Yep, I've already started mocking other guys in the 2nd round.
Who knows... Cosmi lasted until the #51 pick last year.

And I was surprised Cosmi lasted that long with his resume, those numbers and being a LT. I was really high on Cosmi. He has worked out well so far for the Commanders at RT. Cosmi going at 51 gives me a little more hope that Lucas could be there at 48.

[AK47]

Joey Bosa had 5 sacks his last year in college.

Once again, sacks have low predictive value and low stability year over year.

As a 1st rounder you need to show me at least 1 college season of 10+ sacks. Two is even better. Bosa had 13.5 in 2014 alone. Melvin Ingram had 10 in 2011.

In 3 seasons GK only had 14 sacks total. That's a red flag for me.

College Sacks: The quality by which a college prospect gets his sacks is somewhat of an indicator of sacks/qb pressure at the NFL level. Guys that padded their sack totals by getting 3 in one game against a poor o-line, getting them against RT's vs LTs, team coverage sacks, ect may translate as QB pressure at the NFL level rather than sacks. Clean sacks one-on-one against LT's. NFL caliber LT's are even better.

ALL THAT SAID

I had this college kid with very eerily similar college stats as Karlaftis. Low sack count in college. Made plays that jumped out the tv screen (or laptop screen). Kept him in my mock for 2nd-3rd round. Then Combine happened. Performed calculations using the ole' Waldo 34OLB calculations. Double checked said calculations because the 280+lb kid was putting up stats that seemed like errors. That kid was JJ Watt. Now I'm not saying Karlaftisis is the next JJ Watt. What I'll say is his ceiling likely is a poor man's JJ Watt. Dependent on combine numbers.

[Topcat]

As a 1st rounder you need to show me at least 1 college season of 10+ sacks. Two is even better. Bosa had 13.5 in 2014 alone. Melvin Ingram had 10 in 2011.

In 3 seasons GK only had 14 sacks total. That's a red flag for me.

College Sacks: The quality by which a college prospect gets his sacks is somewhat of an indicator of sacks/qb pressure at the NFL level. Guys that padded their sack totals by getting 3 in one game against a poor o-line, getting them against RT's vs LTs, team coverage sacks, ect may translate as QB pressure at the NFL level rather than sacks. Clean sacks one-on-one against LT's. NFL caliber LT's are even better.

ALL THAT SAID

I had this college kid with very eerily similar college stats as Karlaftis. Low sack count in college. Made plays that jumped out the tv screen (or laptop screen). Kept him in my mock for 2nd-3rd round. Then Combine happened. Performed calculations using the ole' Waldo 34OLB calculations. Double checked said calculations because the 280+lb kid was putting up stats that seemed like errors. That kid was JJ Watt. Now I'm not saying Karlaftisis is the next JJ Watt. What I'll say is his ceiling likely is a poor man's JJ Watt. Dependent on combine numbers.

Interesting analysis there, AK. I checked on Watt's and Karlaftis's college stats, and u are right. Watt only 11.5 sacks in 3 years. Karlaftis 14 sacks in 3 years (though he was injured in one of those years):

watt.JPG

karlaftis.JPG https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...rlaftis-1.html

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...jj-watt-1.html

[TexanBeerlover]

None of its going to matter, don’t see Karlaftis slipping by Philadelphia, but then Slater did fall right into Telesco’s lap.

I would personally run to the podium with the pick :troll:

[Boltjolt]

As a 1st rounder you need to show me at least 1 college season of 10+ sacks. Two is even better. Bosa had 13.5 in 2014 alone. Melvin Ingram had 10 in 2011.

In 3 seasons GK only had 14 sacks total. That's a red flag for me.

College Sacks: The quality by which a college prospect gets his sacks is somewhat of an indicator of sacks/qb pressure at the NFL level. Guys that padded their sack totals by getting 3 in one game against a poor o-line, getting them against RT's vs LTs, team coverage sacks, ect may translate as QB pressure at the NFL level rather than sacks. Clean sacks one-on-one against LT's. NFL caliber LT's are even better.

ALL THAT SAID

I had this college kid with very eerily similar college stats as Karlaftis. Low sack count in college. Made plays that jumped out the tv screen (or laptop screen). Kept him in my mock for 2nd-3rd round. Then Combine happened. Performed calculations using the ole' Waldo 34OLB calculations. Double checked said calculations because the 280+lb kid was putting up stats that seemed like errors. That kid was JJ Watt. Now I'm not saying Karlaftisis is the next JJ Watt. What I'll say is his ceiling likely is a poor man's JJ Watt. Dependent on combine numbers.

Watt only played DL for 2 seasons in college as he was a TE first and got converted.