2020 NFL Draft Discussion

[Topcat]

Gruden's offense is complicated and he is getting very comfortable in it now. He just needs more weapons. He has a running game with Jacobs, a good TE....2 in fact. Just needs a WR or two.

The only way I see the Raiders drafting a QB early would be because Gruden just loves QBs but Mayock is good at reeling him in to reality.
Unfortunately I get to read all the Raiders news here in Vegas lol. But I'll say this, they will be supported here,unlike the Bolts in LA.

We should of moved here. Spano's is good friends with the Mayor here and they are fans....I say they because Oscar Goodman was the Mayor and now his Wife is. Dean fucked up.....again.

On the other hand, Mayock is human and has erred also. Here's a story about Mayock's top 10 draft whiffs:

Throughout the years, Mike Mayock has had plenty of hits in his NFL draft evaluations. But like any human he is not perfect. Who are his biggest draft misses of the past ten years?

1. Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M (2014)
Mayock rated the 2012 Heisman Trophy winner as the highest quarterback in the draft over Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, and Jimmy Garoppolo. After struggling off the field, Manziel only lasted two seasons in the NFL after the Browns drafted him with the 22nd overall pick in 2014.

2. Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee (2013)
Patterson’s big-playmaking ability led to Mayock ranking him as the second best wide receiver in the draft, over DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, and Robert Woods. Patterson was ultimately the third wide receiver to come off the board at 29 overall. Since entering the league, he has been arguably the best kick returner in the NFL, but has yet to record 500 receiving yards or five touchdowns in a season.

3. Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri (2011)
2010 Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton was viewed as the consensus top quarterback in the 2011 NFL Draft, that is except for Mayock who had Gabbert rated higher. Newton, the 2015 MVP winner, was eventually the number one overall pick, and has been to three Pro Bowls . Gabbert on the other hand was the tenth overall pick, and has been one of the bigger draft busts of the past decade.

4. Le’Veon Bell, RB Michigan State (2013)
Mayock’s 94th overall prospect was taken in the second round at pick 48 by the Steelers. He is arguably the most dynamic running back in the NFL and has been to three Pro Bowls. Bell helped revolutionize the position as the ultimate two-way threat as he can even line up at wide receiver.

5. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson (2013)
Despite having some of the most reliable hands in the draft, Hopkins was his fifth rated receiver. He has since been named a First-Team All-Pro twice, and will likely be named one in 2019 for the third year in a row. Hopkins has topped 1,000 yards four seasons, two of which he surpassed 1,500 receiving yards.

6. Mitchell Schwartz, OT, California (2012)
Schwartz was Mayock’s eighth rated tackle, and 62nd overall prospect. Six seasons after the Browns made him the third tackle drafted at 37 overall, he has recorded over 100 consecutive career starts and was named a 2018 All-Pro right tackle with the Chiefs.

7. Darius Leonard, LB, South Carolina State (2018)
As a rookie, Leonard led the NFL with 163 tackles on top of seven sacks and four forced fumbles. He was named a First-Team All-Pro and is a favorite to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. Leonard was drafted by the Colts at 36 overall, but he was Mayock’s 87th rated prospect. It’s still early, but this looks like a major whiff for the Raiders new general manager.

8. Kevin White, WR, West Virginia (2015)
White broke out as a senior at West Virginia recording over 1,400 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. He left an impression on Mayock, who rated him as the highest receiver in the draft over Amari Cooper. Cooper has since topped 1,000 yards receiving three times in his four-year career, while White has failed to top 200 yards in a season and has started just five games.

9. Mark Sanchez, QB, USC (2009)
After throwing for over 3,000 yards and 34 touchdowns as a junior, Mayock had Sanchez as his highest rated quarterback over Georgia’s Matthew Stafford. Ten years later, Sanchez is a backup on the Redskins, and Stafford has recorded over 38,000 passing yards.

10. Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College (2011)
Castonzo has actually had a productive NFL career having started 116 games at left tackle for the Colts who selected him with the 22nd overall pick. Nevertheless, he appears on this list because Mayock had him rated higher than both Tyron Smith and Nate Solder, who were both drafted higher and are still two of the best offensive tackles in the NFL.

https://www.silverandblackpride.com/...past-ten-years

[blueman]

First round, it’s the shits.

[Critty]

Of course the Chargers should attempt to acquire the #1 overall pick.

Bengals talking to multiple teams trying to drive the price as high as possible.

The problem for Telesco is the Dolphins have the ammo to make a much better offer.

The other issue for Bengals is if they trade back to #5 But still want a QB other teams could trade up to to #3 or #4 and take Hebert and Tua.
So.....there is a risk for Bengals to move back too far.

In the end I think Bengals stay put.
But a surprise team like the Lions could move up to #1.
I'm guessing, but i think that HC Patricia would like to move on from Stafford. Bengals feel more comfortable moving back to #3 so they can still draft Herbert or Tua. Lions draft Burrow, he sits 1 season behind Stafford, then Lions trade Stafford the next off season.

Dolphins move up 1 spot to block teams from getting to Tua.

1. Lions. Burrow-QB (Trade/Cin)
2. Redskins. Young-DE
3. Bengals. Herbert-QB (Trade/Det)
4. Dolphins. Tua-QB (Trade/NYG)
5. Giants. Simmons-LB
6. Chargers. ?????

[Critty]

If there is a way for Chargers to get #1 overall, does the price even matter?

Can't a team just fill the missing picks with veteran free agents who have experience and a couple udfa that step up. Would those unknown draft picks do better than know veteran free agents?

Three 1st rd picks

Bosa, James, Williams, Fluker, Verrett, Gordon, Tillery, Luiget, Mathews, English, Ingram, Cason, Davis

Of the last 13 1st rd picks.
Three players. Bosa, James, Ingram.
Those would be the players that truly hurt if you traded away 1st rd picks to move up. The other 10 1st rd picks, im guessing would be okay to give up for a franchise QB.

[Boltjolt]

On the other hand, Mayock is human and has erred also. Here's a story about Mayock's top 10 draft whiffs:

Throughout the years, Mike Mayock has had plenty of hits in his NFL draft evaluations. But like any human he is not perfect. Who are his biggest draft misses of the past ten years?

1. Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M (2014)
Mayock rated the 2012 Heisman Trophy winner as the highest quarterback in the draft over Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, and Jimmy Garoppolo. After struggling off the field, Manziel only lasted two seasons in the NFL after the Browns drafted him with the 22nd overall pick in 2014.

2. Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee (2013)
Patterson’s big-playmaking ability led to Mayock ranking him as the second best wide receiver in the draft, over DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, and Robert Woods. Patterson was ultimately the third wide receiver to come off the board at 29 overall. Since entering the league, he has been arguably the best kick returner in the NFL, but has yet to record 500 receiving yards or five touchdowns in a season.

3. Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri (2011)
2010 Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton was viewed as the consensus top quarterback in the 2011 NFL Draft, that is except for Mayock who had Gabbert rated higher. Newton, the 2015 MVP winner, was eventually the number one overall pick, and has been to three Pro Bowls . Gabbert on the other hand was the tenth overall pick, and has been one of the bigger draft busts of the past decade.

4. Le’Veon Bell, RB Michigan State (2013)
Mayock’s 94th overall prospect was taken in the second round at pick 48 by the Steelers. He is arguably the most dynamic running back in the NFL and has been to three Pro Bowls. Bell helped revolutionize the position as the ultimate two-way threat as he can even line up at wide receiver.

5. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson (2013)
Despite having some of the most reliable hands in the draft, Hopkins was his fifth rated receiver. He has since been named a First-Team All-Pro twice, and will likely be named one in 2019 for the third year in a row. Hopkins has topped 1,000 yards four seasons, two of which he surpassed 1,500 receiving yards.

6. Mitchell Schwartz, OT, California (2012)
Schwartz was Mayock’s eighth rated tackle, and 62nd overall prospect. Six seasons after the Browns made him the third tackle drafted at 37 overall, he has recorded over 100 consecutive career starts and was named a 2018 All-Pro right tackle with the Chiefs.

7. Darius Leonard, LB, South Carolina State (2018)
As a rookie, Leonard led the NFL with 163 tackles on top of seven sacks and four forced fumbles. He was named a First-Team All-Pro and is a favorite to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. Leonard was drafted by the Colts at 36 overall, but he was Mayock’s 87th rated prospect. It’s still early, but this looks like a major whiff for the Raiders new general manager.

8. Kevin White, WR, West Virginia (2015)
White broke out as a senior at West Virginia recording over 1,400 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. He left an impression on Mayock, who rated him as the highest receiver in the draft over Amari Cooper. Cooper has since topped 1,000 yards receiving three times in his four-year career, while White has failed to top 200 yards in a season and has started just five games.

9. Mark Sanchez, QB, USC (2009)
After throwing for over 3,000 yards and 34 touchdowns as a junior, Mayock had Sanchez as his highest rated quarterback over Georgia’s Matthew Stafford. Ten years later, Sanchez is a backup on the Redskins, and Stafford has recorded over 38,000 passing yards.

10. Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College (2011)
Castonzo has actually had a productive NFL career having started 116 games at left tackle for the Colts who selected him with the 22nd overall pick. Nevertheless, he appears on this list because Mayock had him rated higher than both Tyron Smith and Nate Solder, who were both drafted higher and are still two of the best offensive tackles in the NFL.

https://www.silverandblackpride.com/...past-ten-years

What does this have to do with being a GM, already having a QB who can play and talking Gruden out of him thinking he needs a high round pick QB?

There isn't a GM out there that hasn't had a failed first round pick. They have a 50/50 and a reason and why we shouldn't trade down from #6.

[Maniaque 6]

Dolphins move up 1 spot to block teams from getting to Tua.

1. Lions. Burrow-QB (Trade/Cin)
2. Redskins. Young-DE
3. Bengals. Herbert-QB (Trade/Det)
4. Dolphins. Tua-QB (Trade/NYG)
5. Giants. Simmons-LB
6. Chargers. ?????

In that case, the Chargers would have the best OL in the draft at 6.
A QB at 37 ? The best DT available ?

With wise choices, the Chargers can be in the mix next year.

[Boltjolt]

Of course the Chargers should attempt to acquire the #1 overall pick.

Bengals talking to multiple teams trying to drive the price as high as possible.

The problem for Telesco is the Dolphins have the ammo to make a much better offer.

The other issue for Bengals is if they trade back to #5 But still want a QB other teams could trade up to to #3 or #4 and take Hebert and Tua.
So.....there is a risk for Bengals to move back too far.

In the end I think Bengals stay put.
But a surprise team like the Lions could move up to #1.
I'm guessing, but i think that HC Patricia would like to move on from Stafford. Bengals feel more comfortable moving back to #3 so they can still draft Herbert or Tua. Lions draft Burrow, he sits 1 season behind Stafford, then Lions trade Stafford the next off season.

Dolphins move up 1 spot to block teams from getting to Tua.

1. Lions. Burrow-QB (Trade/Cin)
2. Redskins. Young-DE
3. Bengals. Herbert-QB (Trade/Det)
4. Dolphins. Tua-QB (Trade/NYG)
5. Giants. Simmons-LB
6. Chargers. ?????

Don't think Miami needs to trade up there and why wouldn't the Giants take a OT with their crappy OL?.

[FarAwayBoltFan]

There isn't a GM out there that hasn't had a failed first round pick. They have a 50/50 and a reason and why we shouldn't trade down from #6.

The 50/50 fail rate of 1st round picks is what makes trading down to pick up an additional 1st round pick advisable. Pick up an additional 1st rounder for next year to increase the likelihood of success.

If you have one 1st round pick, you have a 50% chance of getting 1 successful player.
If you have two 1st round picks, you have a 75% chance of getting 1 successful player.

[Boltjolt]

The 50/50 fail rate of 1st round picks is what makes trading down to pick up an additional 1st round pick advisable. Pick up an additional 1st rounder for next year to increase the likelihood of success.

If you have one 1st round pick, you have a 50% chance of getting 1 successful player.
If you have two 1st round picks, you have a 75% chance of getting 1 successful player.

Not buying that. Picking higher in the first round is a bigger chance to land a good player than later. I haven't looked but I would think more top 10 players succeed than not.

[gzubeck]

Hate to say this but if the chargers gave the bungles our first and next years first then maybe Bosa might be more inclined to stay with the chargers. He could actually see a future plus his own big payday! imjustsayin.

[FarAwayBoltFan]

Not buying that. Picking higher in the first round is a bigger chance to land a good player than later. I haven't looked but I would think more top 10 players succeed than not.

It is possible that top 10 picks succeed more than lower picks but I've never read anything that breaks down success based on where in the 1st round a pick is made. The articles and statistical analyses I've read over the years normally analyze either the success rate of 1st rounders as a group or compares the % success of 1st and 2nd rounders to the success of later round players. (Success is normally defined as whether a player is still in the league after 5 years or so. I presume based on the premise that the best ability is availability.)

The articles normally conclude that the success rate of 1st rounders is lower than other rounds due to a lot of factors like 1st round players being drafted on measurables and potential rather than proven success, 1st rounders being thrust into starting jobs sooner than later players, 1st rounders relying on athleticism rather than working to master a craft, etc.

Based on what I have read, the success rate of 1st rounders is normally lumped together and put somewhere around 50%. Additionally, my post was based on a previous poster's comment that 1st round success was 50/50. If true, than drafting a single successful player in the 1st round increases from 50% with 1 pick to 75% with 2 picks. That was why I suggested trading down in this draft for an additional 1st round pick in next years draft.

Note that you stated, "chance to land a good player," and then stated, "more top 10 players succeed than not." Those are potentially different things. We would need to define a "good player" as opposed to a "successful" one in order to compare them. For example there are backup QBs that have been in the league for 10 plus years that, based on the definition, qualify as successful but are definitely not any good.

Again, I have never seen an analysis of draft value (successful or good) ranking picks based on the precise # of the pick in the 1st round. It could be out there. If it is than it could very well support your position that, "more top 10 players succeed than not." It could very well be true. I just have no way of knowing so will stick with the information I do have which relates to 1st rounds picks as a whole.

As a whole, players selected in the 1st round succeed roughly half of the time. So, the more 1st round picks, the more chance of success.

Note that a quick google search pulled up the following:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/74206-what-are-an-nfl-first-round-picks-odds-for-success

https://fisherpub.sjfc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1064&context=sport_undergrad

[dmac_bolt]

It is possible that top 10 picks succeed more than lower picks but I've never read anything that breaks down success based on where in the 1st round a pick is made. The articles and statistical analyses I've read over the years normally analyze either the success rate of 1st rounders as a group or compares the % success of 1st and 2nd rounders to the success of later round players. (Success is normally defined as whether a player is still in the league after 5 years or so. I presume based on the premise that the best ability is availability.)

The articles normally conclude that the success rate of 1st rounders is lower than other rounds due to a lot of factors like 1st round players being drafted on measurables and potential rather than proven success, 1st rounders being thrust into starting jobs sooner than later players, 1st rounders relying on athleticism rather than working to master a craft, etc.

Based on what I have read, the success rate of 1st rounders is normally lumped together and put somewhere around 50%. Additionally, my post was based on a previous poster's comment that 1st round success was 50/50. If true, than drafting a single successful player in the 1st round increases from 50% with 1 pick to 75% with 2 picks. That was why I suggested trading down in this draft for an additional 1st round pick in next years draft.

Note that you stated, "chance to land a good player," and then stated, "more top 10 players succeed than not." Those are potentially different things. We would need to define a "good player" as opposed to a "successful" one in order to compare them. For example there are backup QBs that have been in the league for 10 plus years that, based on the definition, qualify as successful but are definitely not any good.

Again, I have never seen an analysis of draft value (successful or good) ranking picks based on the precise # of the pick in the 1st round. It could be out there. If it is than it could very well support your position that, "more top 10 players succeed than not." It could very well be true. I just have no way of knowing so will stick with the information I do have which relates to 1st rounds picks as a whole.

As a whole, players selected in the 1st round succeed roughly half of the time. So, the more 1st round picks, the more chance of success.

Note that a quick google search pulled up the following:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/74206-what-are-an-nfl-first-round-picks-odds-for-success

https://fisherpub.sjfc.edu/cgi/viewc...port_undergrad

Perhaps Trading down increases the odds of getting a Fluker + Buster Fucking Davis instead of a single Joey MFer Bosa? Its a theory. I don’t think I buy that all 1R picks have the same odds, or teams a 31 wouldn’t pay to trade with teams at 2 or 3. Or 6. Common sense, fellas ...