2020 Draft Prospect Discussion

[Charge!]

Okay, let's take a close look at Love in the Fresno St. game. Both teams at 4-4, evenly matched. Fresno in a bit of a down year with a new QB. What I see in Love is some talent, makes some great plays, but will need some more discipline to avoid picks in the NFL. A few things I noticed:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7onbnrSfSE8

8:25: Love totally drills the rock into a tight window for a TD catch.

10:17: Love forces the rock into double coverage; it's caught, but this could have easily been picked.

10:45: Very nice touch and placement for a TD catch.

14:48: Long ball is underthrown, but caught. This could be an indication of not so great arm strength.

21:15: Nice throw on the run for a completion in crunch time. Helped set up game-winning FG.

I do like Love's intangibles. Needs some coaching up for better decision-making. Is he worth #6? Maybe. Maybe not. That's up to our coaching staff to decide.

I agree, there is definitely something to like about him...... rather get Burrow or Tua because they played so consistently well against top competition, but if we fail to do that, Love has potential.

[Charge!]

Ive been thinking the exact reverse - that gimmick system retarded his development as a QB. He's got mad skills imo, put him in a proper NFL program with a good QB coach and he could exceed Love. perhaps. or not lol.

but that gimmick system works really well against weak competition, which is why Hebert and Mariota racked up huge stats...... Hebert is like alot of big strong armed QB's...... who have a canon arm and no touch...... its very common...... like the buffalo QB..... and many others......

I cant guarantee that Hebert will fail in NFL like every other massively talented oregon QB, , but 4 years of not having touch does not really indicate that he will succeed.......

The buffalo QB, Allen, was not consistently accurate in college and guess what..... he is the same in NFL.....

Rivers was accurate at every level and in NFL...... same for manning and other top QB's........ ball throwing accuracy is not learned as an adult...... kids either have it or they dont.......

[Sgt Schultz]

Rivers was accurate at every level and in NFL

I recall Rivers missing a lot of short passes in his early years. I believe Steve said at the time that he was holding the ball wrong and had bad footwork for short passes.

[like54ninjas]

If Simmons was 248 instead of 238, my nipples would be hard. I see Safety as at best the fourth biggest need on defense behind DT, ILB, and CB. Add in OLB ahead of S, S is arguably our strongest group on the D side (I am assuming Adderley becomes a wicked backfield ball hawk, btw - so grain of salt tharr).

If Simmons can line up in the box half the time in base formations and not get blown up, he'd be monster and count me in. Can he? (i'm a horrible scout, i can't judge something this important!). I thought LSU was pretty effective at neutralizing him out of the game entirely in the Champ Game.

edit: I also once saw San Diego State completely erase Khalil Mack out of their puny potato bowl game and rush for 249 yards, another 200+ pass. and he turned out to be an ok player in the NFL . so one bowl game does not a player make.

Who are the top 10 WILLs in the league?
Top 10 three down MIKEs?


Here is a PFF list for 2019
10. JOE SCHOBERT, CLEVELAND BROWNS - 6’ - 245#

2018 OVERALL GRADE RANK: 11

Schobert's move away from edge defender and two off-ball linebacker has paid dividends for the Browns' defense. He earned career highs in overall grade (78.2) and coverage grade (87.7) a year ago, a sign that he's well on his way to move up this list if he can stay healthy and continue to pick up the position quickly. 9. JORDAN HICKS, ARIZONA CARDINALS - 6’ 1” - 236#

2018 OVERALL GRADE RANK: 10

Hicks rebounded from an Achilles injury that limited him to just 268 snaps in 2017 to record an overall grade of 80.7 in 2018, 10th-best among 92 qualifying linebackers. It was the second time in his first four seasons that Hicks has found himself among the top-10 at the position. In 2016, he graded at 88.3, which put him behind only Luke Kuechly and Jerrell Freeman. His only two seasons that didn’t end on Injured Reserve produced two campaigns where Hicks showed himself to be among the top-10 players at the position. 8. DANNY TREVATHAN, CHICAGO BEARS - 6’ 239#

2018 OVERALL GRADE RANK: 19

Trevathan has earned an 80.0 overall grade across his 1,766 defensive snaps over the past two seasons (2017-18), which rankings ninth among the 77 off-ball linebackers with 800 or more defensive snaps played in the two-year span. He also ranks fifth in pass-rush grade (80.8) and 12th in coverage grade (78.6) among the same group of qualifiers.

[Editor's Note: Here are links to all of PFF's lists of the top-10 players by position entering the 2019 NFL season. For all of the advanced stats and grades we speak to in the articles, subscribe to PFF's ELITE subscription today!]

QB | RB | WR | TE | T | IOL | DI | EDGE | LB | CB | S 7. DARIUS LEONARD, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - 6’ 2” - 230#

2018 OVERALL GRADE RANK: 7

While Leonard’s raw tackle totals jumped off the page throughout his rookie season, they shouldn’t take away from an incredibly promising performance in all facets of the game. He earned overall grades north of 70.0 as a run defender (70.8), a tackler (85.4), pass rusher (73.4) and as a coverage defender (84.8). He’ll be a key component of Matt Eberflus’ defense moving forward. 6. JAYLON SMITH, DALLAS COWBOYS - 6’ 2” - 242#

2018 OVERALL GRADE RANK: 6

A torn ACL and MCL in his junior year at Notre Dame pushed him from being a sure-fire first-round pick in the 2016 NFL draft to a question mark, but Smith overcame those questions emphatically this year. Among off-ball linebackers with 50 or more pass-rush snaps, his 27.8 win percentage as a pass rusher ranked first, while he was one of six off-ball linebackers with 500 or more coverage snaps to allow one or fewer touchdowns in coverage. 5. LEIGHTON VANDER ESCH, DALLAS COWBOYS - 6’ 4” - 255#

2018 OVERALL GRADE RANK: 4

Vander Esch ended his rookie season as one of only four linebackers who earned grades north of 80.0 in run defense and coverage, while his overall grade of 84.9 was good for fourth among all players at the position. The former Boise State Bronco’s 54 total stops were the fifth-most among linebackers, and his five forced incompletions in coverage are good for fourth-most among rookies. It may only be one year, but the Cowboys seem to have secured the next great star at the linebacker position. 4. LAVONTE DAVID, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS - 6’ 1” - 233#

2018 OVERALL GRADE RANK: 12

From PFF's Connor Price on David:

“David saw 348 run-defense snaps and secured 33 run stops in 2018, earning a run-stop percentage of 9.4% that ranked 13th among the 94 linebackers with at least 100 run-defense snaps. He also recorded a run-defense grade of 72.5 that ranked 25th at his position.

However, gone are the days of the one-trick pony: David has adapted to the NFL’s modern style of linebacker play a-la Deion Jones and has also been one of the league’s best coverage linebackers. Over the last two years, only Demario Davis and (47) and Blake Martinez (43) have produced more coverage stops than David’s 42, while David’s 88.5 coverage grade ranks third among the 109 linebackers with at least 200 coverage snaps since 2017.” 3. DEION JONES, ATLANTA FALCONS - 6’ - 222#

2018 OVERALL GRADE RANK: —

Jones’ breakout season in 2017 was truly spectacular. The 2016 second-round pick turned in an elite 91.7 coverage grade across 719 coverage snaps in his sophomore season in the NFL, a single-season mark that ranks first among the 88 off-ball linebackers with 300 or more coverage snaps as second-year players in the PFF era (2006-18).

Injuries kept us from seeing Jones build on his impressive 2017 season, but we at PFF are confident he can return to form when healthy and should be valued as one of the NFL’s top off-ball linebackers.

From PFF’s Austin Gayle on why Atlanta should jump at extending Jones early:

“Jones didn’t quite return to form when he came back from injury in Weeks 13-17, but that shouldn’t keep the Falcons’ brass from banking on him bouncing back. He’s proved he can excel in coverage across a significant sample size, a sought-after but a rarely found trait in off-ball linebackers. The injury combined with the timing of the contract extension could very well have Atlanta rostering the league’s best coverage linebacker on a bargain.” 2. LUKE KUECHLY, CAROLINA PANTHERS - 6’ 3” - 238#

2018 OVERALL GRADE RANK: 2

Kuechly has earned 90.0-plus overall grades in each of the past five seasons, all while earning 85.0-plus coverage grades each year. He and Bobby Wagner share the NFL lead among off-ball linebackers in forced incompletions (32) since 2014, but it’s Kuechly that owns the sole lead in coverage stops (129) in the five-year span. 1. BOBBY WAGNER, SEATTLE SEAHAWKS - 6’ - 242#

2018 OVERALL GRADE RANK: 1

Wagner finished the year ranked first in overall grade (91.9), coverage grade (90.4) and run-defense grade (91.8) among qualifying off-ball linebackers in 2018. Only two off-ball linebackers in the PFF era (2006-18) have earned 90.0-plus marks in all three facets: Wagner in 2018 and Kuechly in 2015. Wagner also missed just one tackle across 140 attempts this past season.

Though Kuechly isn’t too far off the Seahawks phenom, Wagner takes the cake for top off-ball linebacker in the NFL right now coming off one of the best seasons we’ve ever seen at the position

[richpjr]

Rivers was accurate at every level and in NFL...... same for manning and other top QB's........ ball throwing accuracy is not learned as an adult...... kids either have it or they dont.......

Here are some fun facts for you.

In their 4 year college careers:

Rivers completed 63.6 percent of his passes.
Herbert completed 64.0 percent of his passes.

Rivers and Herbert each threw 95 TD passes (but Herbert did it in 417 fewer pass attempts)

Rivers threw 34 interceptions.
Herbert threw 23 interceptions.

Rivers averaged 7.9 yards per pass
Herbert averaged 8.2 yards per pass

We all know Herbert has a much stronger arm and is a very mobile QB.

So I guess by just about every single category, Herbert is a better QB prospect than Rivers was. Because, after all, accuracy is not learned as an adult, right?

[Charge!]

Off-season is all about apologizing, lol. Herbert’s negatives are all about somebody else’s fault, just like River’s. Love made mistakes and we should crucify him lol. Hurts can’t throw, et al.

Looking at these young QBs, it’s all about what you think they CAN do at the next level. Everybody thinks one hit wonder Burrow, cuz he found the right system, will be can’t miss in the pros. Tua if healthy can be even more. Herbert can learn and grow and be a winning QB. Ditto Love but with a longer curve. Hurts has folks split, I think he can be as good a pro as any of the above, some think Eason or Fromm. But it’s all conjecture based on faulty ie non-NFL playing data.

So who are the Chargers in love with? No idea, but I bet we come out of this draft with a QB in rounds 1 or 2. If they drop a 1st on somebody, I will totally roll with it cuz all these guys seem like they MAY have IT. But no fucking way of knowing unless you open the box lol. Hope TT and co. are doing their homework.

all good and valid points....... but Burrow is unique because no QB has ever had a season like that....... he actually threw 7 TD passes in the first half of a bowl game against a decent team.... that was insane......most experts rank Burrow and Tua as nearly cant miss, like Rivers, Manning, and big ben were thought of...... but all the other QB's him this draft have some kind of major issues...... so like you said, no one really knows how good or bad they will do in NFL.....

...and as fans of a team without a QB, all we can really do is hope for the best..... lol

[like54ninjas]

but that gimmick system works really well against weak competition, which is why Hebert and Mariota racked up huge stats...... Hebert is like alot of big strong armed QB's...... who have a canon arm and no touch...... its very common...... like the buffalo QB..... and many others......

I cant guarantee that Hebert will fail in NFL like every other massively talented oregon QB, , but 4 years of not having touch does not really indicate that he will succeed.......

The buffalo QB, Allen, was not consistently accurate in college and guess what..... he is the same in NFL.....

Rivers was accurate at every level and in NFL...... same for manning and other top QB's........ ball throwing accuracy is not learned as an adult...... kids either have it or they dont.......

Josh Allen’s completion % increased by 6% (58%), while improving TDs/INTs - 20/9 (10/12), and increasing AVG YPA from 6.5 to 6.7. That on 120 more pass attempts. Sounds like pretty good progress from 1 year to next. Will it continue? Unknown.

[Charge!]

Here are some fun facts for you.

In their 4 year college careers:

Rivers completed 63.6 percent of his passes.
Herbert completed 64.0 percent of his passes.

Rivers and Herbert each threw 95 TD passes (but Herbert did it in 417 fewer pass attempts)

Rivers threw 34 interceptions.
Herbert threw 23 interceptions.

Rivers averaged 7.9 yards per pass
Herbert averaged 8.2 yards per pass

We all know Herbert has a much stronger arm and is a very mobile QB.

So I guess by just about every single category, Herbert is a better QB prospect than Rivers was. Because, after all, accuracy is not learned as an adult, right?

That comment that you cannot teach accuracy is correct...it came from a lifelong career QB coach..... and same thing has been said buy other QB coaches.....

those are just stats....... and QB's that run that kind of quick pass flanker screen type systems have high completion ratios and receivers get lots of RAC......completion percentage has nothing to do with throwing the ball accurately....

huge difference between NC State and Oregon.....huge difference in competition....... Rivers was MVP of 5 bowl games for his passing ability(BTW...which is why we draft QB's)..... Hebert won his bowl games as a runner not a passer....in fact he sucked at passing in rose bowl and senior bowl...... HUGE difference.....

I hate when people use pure stats and dont actually look at the game.......... Hebert has a stronger arm than Rivers but Rivers has consistent touch and accuracy...... most of Hebert's good stats came against horrible defenses that left first read receivers wide open .......

Rivers was know for clutch play.... Hebert has not been known for that......

[Charge!]

Josh Allen’s completion % increased by 6% (58%), while improving TDs/INTs - 20/9 (10/12), and increasing AVG YPA from 6.5 to 6.7. That on 120 more pass attempts. Sounds like pretty good progress from 1 year to next. Will it continue? Unknown.

sorry but completion percentage is NOT accuracy.......... and the bills win games because of defense and running not Allens passing ability..... Allen is more of a runner than passer he is not consistently accurate.....allen does not complete passes when needed......

[richpjr]

That comment that you cannot teach accuracy is correct...it came from a lifelong career QB coach..... and same thing has been said buy other QB coaches.....

those are just stats....... and QB's that run that kind of quick pass flanker screen type systems have high completion ratios and receivers get lots of RAC......completion percentage has nothing to do with throwing the ball accurately....

huge difference between NC State and Oregon.....huge difference in competition....... Rivers was MVP of 5 bowl games for his passing ability(BTW...which is why we draft QB's)..... Hebert won his bowl games as a runner not a passer....in fact he sucked at passing in rose bowl and senior bowl...... HUGE difference.....

I hate when people use pure stats and dont actually look at the game.......... Hebert has a stronger arm than Rivers but Rivers has consistent touch and accuracy...... most of Hebert's good stats came against horrible defenses that left first read receivers wide open .......

Rivers was know for clutch play.... Hebert has not been known for that......

I do not disagree that you cannot teach accuracy, I merely point out that Herbert was just as accurate a passer as Rivers was in college. And yes, I actually did watch Herbert play which is why I chuckle at your he has no touch claim because it was not at all what I saw. Does he have the touch of Rivers? No but your claim that he slings every pass pass like a rocket is just not close to being true. And add in how much better he looked after working with a QB coach and he may end up drafted higher than Rivers was.

[21&500]

That comment that you cannot teach accuracy is correct...it came from a lifelong career QB coach..... and same thing has been said buy other QB coaches.....

those are just stats....... and QB's that run that kind of quick pass flanker screen type systems have high completion ratios and receivers get lots of RAC......completion percentage has nothing to do with throwing the ball accurately....

huge difference between NC State and Oregon.....huge difference in competition....... Rivers was MVP of 5 bowl games for his passing ability(BTW...which is why we draft QB's)..... Hebert won his bowl games as a runner not a passer....in fact he sucked at passing in rose bowl and senior bowl...... HUGE difference.....

I hate when people use pure stats and dont actually look at the game.......... Hebert has a stronger arm than Rivers but Rivers has consistent touch and accuracy...... most of Hebert's good stats came against horrible defenses that left first read receivers wide open .......

Rivers was know for clutch play.... Hebert has not been known for that......

maybe this life long coach was just bad?

[like54ninjas]

maybe this life long coach was just bad?

my other question, amongst many on Charge’s QB zero variance analysis/etc, why no names/etc?
vague reference to “one lifelong “ and then “by other” QB coaches