2020 Draft Prospect Discussion

[Topcat]

https://sports.yahoo.com/quantifying...171552291.html

Justin Herbert

Distance (Usage Rate) Left Outside Left Middle Right Middle Right Outside Total
20+ (16.08%) 9/19 (6 TD) 11/20 (3 TD) 10/16 (3 TD) 13/23 (5 TD) 43/78 (17 TD)
16-20 (9.28%) 9/15 (1 TD) 4/8 (1 INT) 5/10 (1 INT) 8/12 (3 TD) 26/45 (4 TD, 2 INT)
11-15 (14.64%) 5/9 (1 TD) 12/21 (2 TD 1 INT) 21/27 (3 TD, 2 INT) 8/14 46/71 (6 TD, 3 INT)
6-10 (14.64%) 6/11 (1 TD) 13/18 (2 TD) 14/19 ( 1 INT) 16/23 (1 INT) 49/71 (3 TD, 2 INT)
1-5 (22.89%) 22/25 24/28 (1 TD) 30/35 (2 TD, 1 INT) 19/23 (1 TD) 95/111 (4 TD 1 INT)
0 (22.06%) 23/24 (6 TD) 32/34 (1 TD) 28/33 (2 TD) 14/16 97/107 (9 TD)

This shows me Herbert spreads the ball all over the field, short, intermediate and long. You actually DON'T want your QB to be slinging the rock long too much, because the percentages of a completion drop off quite a bit compared to short and intermediate routes. I like what I see in these stats.

[Maniaque 6]

https://sports.yahoo.com/quantifying...171552291.html

Justin Herbert

Distance (Usage Rate) Left Outside Left Middle Right Middle Right Outside Total
20+ (16.08%) 9/19 (6 TD) 11/20 (3 TD) 10/16 (3 TD) 13/23 (5 TD) 43/78 (17 TD)
16-20 (9.28%) 9/15 (1 TD) 4/8 (1 INT) 5/10 (1 INT) 8/12 (3 TD) 26/45 (4 TD, 2 INT)
11-15 (14.64%) 5/9 (1 TD) 12/21 (2 TD 1 INT) 21/27 (3 TD, 2 INT) 8/14 46/71 (6 TD, 3 INT)
6-10 (14.64%) 6/11 (1 TD) 13/18 (2 TD) 14/19 ( 1 INT) 16/23 (1 INT) 49/71 (3 TD, 2 INT)
1-5 (22.89%) 22/25 24/28 (1 TD) 30/35 (2 TD, 1 INT) 19/23 (1 TD) 95/111 (4 TD 1 INT)
0 (22.06%) 23/24 (6 TD) 32/34 (1 TD) 28/33 (2 TD) 14/16 97/107 (9 TD)

That's incredible ! 45% of his passes were from 0 to 5 yards.
From 6 to 20, he is just around 60% and he has 13 TDs and 7 INTs.
Is he a first rounder ?

[pigskin]

https://sports.yahoo.com/quantifying-quarterbacks-tua-tagovailoa-173041673.html

Here is Tua

10/18 (5 TD)	4/7 (3 TD, 1 INT)	5/11 (2 TD, 1 INT)	5/10 (2 TD)	24/46 (12 TD, 2 INT)
1/2	5/5	6/8	6/10 (2 TD)	18/25 (2 TD)
3/8 (1 TD)	18/23 (5 TD, 1 INT)	4/10	2/5	27/46 (6 TD, 1 INT)
13/18 (2 TD, 1 INT)	14/18 (3 TD)	10/17 (2 TD)	5/7	42/60 (7 TD, 1 INT)
10/16 (1 INT)	13/14 (1 TD)	19/20 (1 TD)	9/12 (2 TD)	51/62 (4 TD, 1 INT)
9/9	21/23	16/16 (1 TD)	10/12 (1 TD)	56/60 (2 TD)
46/71 (8 TD, 2 INT)	75/90 (12 TD, 2 INT)	60/82 (6 TD, 1 INT)	37/56 (7 TD)	218/299 (33 TD, 5 INT

[pigskin]

https://sports.yahoo.com/quantifying-quarterbacks-jalen-hurts-165608761.html

and Jalen

11/25 (1 TD)	9/16 (3 TD, 1 INT)	7/18 (2 TD, 1 INT)	11/20 (5 TD, 1 INT)	38/79 (11 TD, 3 INT)
5/7 (1 TD)	5/7 (2 TD, 1 INT)	9/11	5/7 (3 TD, 1 INT)	24/32 (6 TD, 2 INT)
12/19 (1 INT)	14/17 (2 TD)	24/27 (1 INT)	8/12	58/75 (2 TD, 2 INT)
10/14 (2 TD)	19/24 (3 TD, 1 INT)	26/30 (6 TD)	4/13	59/81 (11 TD, 1 INT)
16/19 (1 TD)	11/13	13/18 (2 TD)	16/18 (2 TD)	56/68 (5 TD)
15/15	19/23 (1 TD)	26/32 (1 TD, 1 INT)	11/11	71/81 (2 TD, 1 INT)
69/99 (5 TD, 1 INT)	77/100 (11 TD, 3 INT)	105/136 (11 TD, 3 INT)	55/81 (10 TD, 2 INT)	306/416 (37 TD, 9 INT)

[21&500]

Thanks. Very interesting statistical breakdown.

It’s funny that they mention Alex Smith, that’s the comp I’ve had for him for a while too.
system qb, and not in a bad way
provide him a system with clearly defined rules and watch him apply himself.
great multi-sport athlete who is fairly new to the position
may never be confused for an alpha like 17, but a good OC can win with him.
at 6 I’d be hopeful

[Boltjolt]

This shows me Herbert spreads the ball all over the field, short, intermediate and long. You actually DON'T want your QB to be slinging the rock long too much, because the percentages of a completion drop off quite a bit compared to short and intermediate routes. I like what I see in these stats.

You do?

We don't run that type of offense at all and Herbert was under 30% of his passes going for 6-15 yards.....like I been saying. He throws a ton of 0-5 yards passes. Which inflates his completion%.

The only QBs in last year's draft to have under 30% were Minshew, Tyree Jackson who is already in the XFL and Stidham. All day 3 picks. Usully QBs are in the 34 to 35 % area.

The guy mentioned he has some unusual misses in his passes in that range.....as I also mentioned when watching him play.
I'm just a skeptic of Herbert as all. Sux that QBs get over drafted because at 6, I don't like Herbert either.

Considering Rivers was drafted 4th......Herbert I don't think is that close a prospect that Rivers was, except that he can run and Rivers cant.

[Boltjolt]

Also keeping in mind that for Tua and Hurts, they had very good WRs and will be first round picks.

[beachcomber]

You do?

We don't run that type of offense at all and Herbert was under 30% of his passes going for 6-15 yards.....like I been saying. He throws a ton of 0-5 yards passes. Which inflates his completion%.

The only QBs in last year's draft to have under 30% were Minshew, Tyree Jackson who is already in the XFL and Stidham. All day 3 picks. Usully QBs are in the 34 to 35 % area.

The guy mentioned he has some unusual misses in his passes in that range.....as I also mentioned when watching him play.
I'm just a skeptic of Herbert as all. Sux that QBs get over drafted because at 6, I don't like Herbert either.

Considering Rivers was drafted 4th......Herbert I don't think is that close a prospect that Rivers was, except that he can run and Rivers cant.

know you like Burrow and Bridgewater, and agree.... just don't see the merits in drafting someone just to draft a QB @6.... does not bode/spell well going forward me fears, and....

didn't know that 'bout Stidham, as have seen plenty of clips where he drops dimes on some rather long throws/bombs.... (good stuff/research)

[Topcat]

You do?

We don't run that type of offense at all and Herbert was under 30% of his passes going for 6-15 yards.....like I been saying. He throws a ton of 0-5 yards passes. Which inflates his completion%.

The only QBs in last year's draft to have under 30% were Minshew, Tyree Jackson who is already in the XFL and Stidham. All day 3 picks. Usully QBs are in the 34 to 35 % area.

Did you read the write-up on him or just look at the stats? The guy mentioned he has some unusual misses in his passes in that range.....as I also mentioned when watching him play.

Agree that with Rivers, he threw mostly intermediate stuff, sometimes with a lot of ill-advised long shots that got picked. You're right that Herbert threw a lot of really short stuff, but he also had a lot of intermediate and some long passes. Maybe we need to go to a more short pass attack, mixed with the ground game. I called for this repeatedly, especially when Rivers kept forcing the rock long into coverage, resulting in picks, incompletes and sacks. Having said that, it is important to have a speedster deep threat, for the occasional long ball, and to keep the opposing D from stacking the box. But short pass attack can be very effective.

[like54ninjas]

You do?

We don't run that type of offense at all and Herbert was under 30% of his passes going for 6-15 yards.....like I been saying. He throws a ton of 0-5 yards passes. Which inflates his completion%.

The only QBs in last year's draft to have under 30% were Minshew, Tyree Jackson who is already in the XFL and Stidham. All day 3 picks. Usully QBs are in the 34 to 35 % area.

The guy mentioned he has some unusual misses in his passes in that range.....as I also mentioned when watching him play.
I'm just a skeptic of Herbert as all. Sux that QBs get over drafted because at 6, I don't like Herbert either.

Considering Rivers was drafted 4th......Herbert I don't think is that close a prospect that Rivers was, except that he can run and Rivers cant.

So you are faulting what % of Herbert’s passes were thrown between 6-15 yards? He was 95/142 which is a 67% completion rate.

[Boltjolt]

Agree that with Rivers, he threw mostly intermediate stuff, sometimes with a lot of ill-advised long shots that got picked. You're right that Herbert threw a lot of really short stuff, but he also had a lot of intermediate and some long passes. Maybe we need to go to a more short pass attack, mixed with the ground game. I called for this repeatedly, especially when Rivers kept forcing the rock long into coverage, resulting in picks, incompletes and sacks. Having said that, it is important to have a speedster deep threat, for the occasional long ball, and to keep the opposing D from stacking the box. But short pass attack can be very effective.

Yes but you act like Rivers was a career throw the rock up and pray type. He had 23 INTs in 2017 and 2018 combined.
I bet he has his typical season this year with a better OL. 20 INTs for him is NOT the norm. Just trying too hard to make something happen.

[like54ninjas]

Yes but you act like Rivers was a career throw the rock up and pray type. He had 23 INTs in 2017 and 2018 combined.
I bet he has his typical season this year with a better OL. 20 INTs for him is NOT the norm. Just trying too hard to make something happen.

Phil’s 14 year starting career average 28/14 TDs/INTs. Phil only had 2 of 14 seasons with under 10 INTs. Throw in his career 73/40 of fumbles/lost and that is about 17 turnovers per season, more than 1 per game. You can see how he isn’t what AL wants at QB with turnovers/ball security.