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  • #25
    Tend to agree Lone but really I'm a skeptic that either will be a good pro.
    Herbert looked great in shorts with no defense in front of him but we expected that as some said he would have a great combine. Said the same about Hurts.

    Tape is King here with the QBs. Once again for me, coming from Rivers its hard to love these guys asside from Burrow.
    Whoever we get, I'll just hope for the best.

    Comment


    • #26
      Personally I always found the argument of Jalen Hurts "Will Run after first read" a bit harsh and with very little leverage against his recent work.

      First off, you don't amass - 3,851 yards which rank 9th in the nation, 32 TD which rank 11th in a 4 way tie with TUA, HERBERT and Sam Ehlinger - when you will take off if your first progression is covered.

      Second, Kyler Murray's last year in Oklahoma threw for 4,361 yards and rushed for 1001 yards. If Kyler has a full year of experience in the system and still rush over 1000 yards, naturally one would assume this Kyler Murray's oklahoma offensive scheme will involve the QB running. Jalen Hurts basically went there to run the exact offense and did it pretty well consider the amount of experience he had or the lack of, in the offense. On top of that his footwork is better. He pivot and align decently with his target on his check down compare to anything he had done prior and he looks stronger, functionally stronger.

      https://www.foxsports.com/college-fo...og?season=2017

      This is game logs for Kyler Murray's first year in Oklahoma, he play sparingly but his pass to run ratio is 3/2, that is almost the same ratio as Jalen Hurts at 1.45~ pass to rush ratio. At this point (Similar in Blocking but not identical to the scheme Baker was in), this system have a large amount of play that involve the QB running if he sees fit. There is a disdain difference between, "A QB choose to run first in a fight or flight" and "A QB is told to run if the option is open".

      Also, this is Jalen's first year playing at Oklahoma, whose to say he won't make similar improvement as Kyler did if he has a second year.

      He really only had run more than he threw in 1 game, which is against that TCU zone that just wrecked the Oklahoma passing game.

      https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/40

      TCU is top 7 in holding to opp to 360 passes only on the year, 11th in int with 22, top 8 against passing in yardage. But yet allowed 22 TDs.
      So if you look at Jalen Hurts' Stat in that game, it basically was a well call game to take what was given by the defense. You know its going to be tough to pass against them so they run, and did it well 28 attempts, 173 yards and 2TD with a 6.2 yards avg. Even with a season low 52% completion rate in that game,he still manage to throw 2 TD only 1 int and took the W home.

      I am having a hard time finding the game tape and i rather not just post the link to a highlight to eval. So no tape eval for this game from me.

      PS: One thing Jalen Hurts said a few weeks back caught my ears. He said nothing in Alabama help him to succeed as a QB..... Here is a list of Nick Saban's QB and he was there since 2007

      https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...a/passing.html

      Yeah I would have to say Nick Saban is more often than not on the miss side as a QB developer. Mind you these are not low class recruit coming out of high school neither. Even in the case of Tua which he is playing well and he showed off his talent; but you have seen very little improvement from year to year. All he did was win, not improve.
      Last edited by C'monchargers; 02-29-2020, 11:26 AM.

      Comment


      • #27
        Originally posted by C'monchargers View Post
        Personally I always found the argument of Jalen Hurts "Will Run after first read" a bit harsh and with very leverage against his recent work.

        First off, you don't amass - 3,851 yards which rank 9th in the nation, 32 TD which rank 11th in a 4 way tie with TUA, HERBERT and Sam Ehlinger - when you will take off if your first progression is covered.

        Second, Kyler Murray's last year in Oklahoma threw for 4,361 yards and rushed for 1001 yards. If Kyler has a full year of experience in the system and still rush over 1000 yards, naturally one would assume this Kyler Murray's oklahoma offensive scheme will involve the QB running. Jalen Hurts basically went there to run the exactly offense and did it pretty well consider the amount of experience he had or the lack of, in the offense. On top of that his footwork is better. He pivot and align decently with his target on his check down compare to anything he had done prior and he looks stronger, functionally stronger.

        https://www.foxsports.com/college-fo...og?season=2017

        This is game logs for Kyler Murray's first year in Oklahoma, he play sparingly but his pass to run ratio is 3/2, that is almost the same ratio as Jalen Hurts at 1.45~ pass to rush ratio. At this point (Similar in Blocking but not identical to the scheme Baker was in), this system have a large amount of play that involve the QB running if he sees fit. There is a disdain difference between, "A QB choose to run first in a fight or flight" and "A QB is told to run if the option is open".

        Also, this is Jalen's first year playing at Oklahoma, whose to say he won't make similar improvement as Kyler did if he has a second year.

        He really only had run more than he threw in 1 game, which is against that TCU zone that just wrecked the Okalahoma passing game.

        https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/40

        TCU is top 7 in holding to opp to 360 passes only on the year, 11th in int with 22, top 8 against passing in yardage. But yet allowed 22 TDs.
        So if you look at Jalen Hurts' Stat in that game, it basically was a well call game to take what was given by the defense. You know its going to be tough to pass against them so they run, and did it well 28 attempts, 173 yards and 2TD with a 6.2 yards avg. Even with a season low 52% completion rate in that game,he still manage to throw 2 TD only 1 int and took the W home.

        I am having a hard time finding the game tape and i rather not just post the link to a highlight to eval. So no tape eval for this game from me.

        PS: One thing Jalen Hurts said a few weeks back caught my ears. He said nothing in Alabama help him to succeed as a QB..... Here is a list of Nick Saban's QB and he was there since 2007

        https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...a/passing.html

        Yeah I would have to say Nick Saban is more often than not on the miss side as a QB developer. Mind you these are not low class recruit coming out of high school neither. Even in the case of Tua you have seen very little improvement from year to year. All he did was win, not improve.
        Good stuff....it doesn't change my opinion of Hurts, which is he needs tons of work as a pocket QB, and is not a sure thing for this league...but it's nice to read good, well thought out arguments. FWIW, I would be just fine if we pick him up at 37, giving him a shot...might even entertain giving up a 4th to move into the very late first if necessary, and also nab that 5th year option...vital for a QB you will probably redshirt.
        Lone Bolt's 1st Round Clusta-Sewell gone...no QBs needed
        Micah Parsons LB
        Rashawn Slater OT/OG
        Patrick Surtain CB
        Caleb Farley CB
        Ja'Marr Chase WR
        Kyle Pitts TE
        Alijah Vera-Tucker OT/OG
        Azeez Ojulari OLB
        Jaycee Horn CB

        Comment


        • #28
          Originally posted by Lone Bolt View Post
          My post combine rankings....

          1. Joe Burrow- Not as high as some on this kid...not the best tools in the draft. But they are good tools, he has good size...and on the biggest stage there is, outside of the NFL itself, he flat out got it done, one year or not. He earned the spot, so I am giving it to him. Conclusion: Won't be available

          2. Tua Tagovailoa- Tua is so good at what he does well....and there is a lot he does well....that many overlook some really key areas. Like size, durability, and true long ball talent. Still, he has earned his spot on this list as well. I really don't like him for the Chargers, but if this guy was in reach for us? We would almost certainly take him into the new stadium/era with us, and I can't say I would be disappointed...just worried and anxious every time I saw him take a hit. Conclusion: Probably won't be available, but makes too much sense not to draft if he is.

          3. Justin Herbert- This prospect bothered me, because despite the raw talent he had, which was talked about for 3 seasons, he never really broke out like anticipated. The film isn't as great as the stats. However, after showcasing some wheels in the Rose Bowl, and winning both practice and game MVP at the Senior Bowl...and now with a really nice combine...as I said in another thread, the clay you have to work with is just too good to pass up. Also...I like what I see in the interviews...it's not the most important thing, but I like the kid...he is someone I would like to root for as a Charger. Conclusion: Possibly available, and would definitely draft at #6.

          4. Jalen Hurts- Like his combine performance. Wheels and arm top notch. Great playaker. Needs work from the pocket, progressing thru reads before running, per watching film, but he really fits Lynn IMO...not saying I have the inside track on what Lynn wants in a QB, just speculation. If we roll with Tyrod, it might be a really good situation for all involved, to scoop him up in the second. Conclusion: Draft second round

          5. Jordan Love-Added this on edit, see eval below, would draft in second round maybe, but boom or bust prospect IMO


          6. Jacob Eason- Still think he has the best arm overall in the draft, both power and touch. I wish he had another year of film to watch...not as mobile as I would like, but not a statue. Conclusion: Not sure he fits Lynn, but I would draft him second round. Conclusion: Draftable in second round

          7. Jake Fromm- I think this guy has got great character, and is a great football player...but may be limited by his physical gifts both athletically and arm wise...I think in the right system, he could be really good in the NFL...but that's not us, I don't believe. Conclusion: Not a fit, do not draft

          What about Jordan Love? Still evaluating, will insert him in near future, but I gotta go to work! LOL...
          Hurts is growing to be my 1st favorite option at our QB situation. I just love how the kid carries himself. He's a team 1st guy. Strong as a bull. Very calm. I think it will translate well when the bullets are flying.

          Comment


          • #29
            Originally posted by Lone Bolt View Post

            Good stuff....it doesn't change my opinion of Hurts, which is he needs tons of work as a pocket QB, and is not a sure thing for this league...but it's nice to read good, well thought out arguments. FWIW, I would be just fine if we pick him up at 37, giving him a shot...might even entertain giving up a 4th to move into the very late first if necessary, and also nab that 5th year option...vital for a QB you will probably redshirt.
            Thanks. And FWIW these are just opinions, and that's....pretty much it. There are so much more to it to be a QB than just tapes and stats, how they think is just as important too. So just my take, I stick to my gun and still believe he will surprise some people. He is not that far away. Compare to Love, he is so far ahead. The fear in Love's game is, does this year affect him like Hackenberg was in Penn State? Which is he develop so much bad habit that it has lingering affect to his game. This year Love's flash play, you can routinely pick out those that makes you think "man that almost was a really bad play". That's scary. He has to correct his mechanics. His read is suspect at times so he might have a steeper learning curve; so if you have to teach him how to move and teach him the basics of things; how long it takes for him to be ready?

            Back to Hurts, I think my favorite thing about him is he might be there for a value pick. Objectively as much as I like what he has done so far, he does have a market value. In every draft, there are movers and there are values, I see him on the value side. In 2015, Dak Prescott was arguably the best QB in the SEC but slide all the way to 4th. So I do see the possiblity this year, after the rush, the market exhaust and some value tend to fall. He probably be there pass top tier 2nd and beyond. His past tapes, switching teams, etc doesn't scream draft me. Team can easily ration to draft somebody else "more qualify".

            Comment


            • #30
              Fun watch here:

              https://twitter.com/NFL/status/12331...t-144385930%2F

              Comment


              • #31
                Originally posted by C'monchargers View Post
                Personally I always found the argument of Jalen Hurts "Will Run after first read" a bit harsh and with very little leverage against his recent work.

                First off, you don't amass - 3,851 yards which rank 9th in the nation, 32 TD which rank 11th in a 4 way tie with TUA, HERBERT and Sam Ehlinger - when you will take off if your first progression is covered.

                Second, Kyler Murray's last year in Oklahoma threw for 4,361 yards and rushed for 1001 yards. If Kyler has a full year of experience in the system and still rush over 1000 yards, naturally one would assume this Kyler Murray's oklahoma offensive scheme will involve the QB running. Jalen Hurts basically went there to run the exact offense and did it pretty well consider the amount of experience he had or the lack of, in the offense. On top of that his footwork is better. He pivot and align decently with his target on his check down compare to anything he had done prior and he looks stronger, functionally stronger.

                https://www.foxsports.com/college-fo...og?season=2017

                This is game logs for Kyler Murray's first year in Oklahoma, he play sparingly but his pass to run ratio is 3/2, that is almost the same ratio as Jalen Hurts at 1.45~ pass to rush ratio. At this point (Similar in Blocking but not identical to the scheme Baker was in), this system have a large amount of play that involve the QB running if he sees fit. There is a disdain difference between, "A QB choose to run first in a fight or flight" and "A QB is told to run if the option is open".

                Also, this is Jalen's first year playing at Oklahoma, whose to say he won't make similar improvement as Kyler did if he has a second year.

                He really only had run more than he threw in 1 game, which is against that TCU zone that just wrecked the Oklahoma passing game.

                https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/40

                TCU is top 7 in holding to opp to 360 passes only on the year, 11th in int with 22, top 8 against passing in yardage. But yet allowed 22 TDs.
                So if you look at Jalen Hurts' Stat in that game, it basically was a well call game to take what was given by the defense. You know its going to be tough to pass against them so they run, and did it well 28 attempts, 173 yards and 2TD with a 6.2 yards avg. Even with a season low 52% completion rate in that game,he still manage to throw 2 TD only 1 int and took the W home.

                I am having a hard time finding the game tape and i rather not just post the link to a highlight to eval. So no tape eval for this game from me.

                PS: One thing Jalen Hurts said a few weeks back caught my ears. He said nothing in Alabama help him to succeed as a QB..... Here is a list of Nick Saban's QB and he was there since 2007

                https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...a/passing.html

                Yeah I would have to say Nick Saban is more often than not on the miss side as a QB developer. Mind you these are not low class recruit coming out of high school neither. Even in the case of Tua which he is playing well and he showed off his talent; but you have seen very little improvement from year to year. All he did was win, not improve.
                Not saying he cant BE a good NFL QB, just that he needs a lot of work.

                Hurts ran the ball 233 times last season (340 pass att). That is Lamar Jackson and Tim Tebow range......2 QBs than ran after their first and seldom second pregressions. All three of those guys have well over over 600 carries to their career,.... Hurts with the least of teh 3 but he didnt play hardly at all his last season in Alabama.

                CeeDee Lamb will be a top 12 drafted player and he had 65 of those receptions for 1398 yards, 14 TDs. Only one other player on that team had over 20 receptions (43) which was Rambo. So id say that #1 progression isnt so far off. You got a great WR, try and get him the ball.

                I like Hurts.....preferably in the 3rd but wont complain if they use a 2nd......and hope he can be close to what Lamar is his second season. Just wish he was sitting behind Rivers instead of Tyrod while learning.

                Burrow is still my #1 but as i said, whoever we get, i'll hope for the best and i DO think Hurts is right up Lynn's alley for what he wants in a QB.

                Comment


                • #32
                  Originally posted by C'monchargers View Post
                  That's awesome...best interview material I have seen on Hurts. Usually he is kinda chillin....playing too cool for school...liked hearing him open up a bit, joke around...and watching his eyes light up when talking Xs and Os...good stuff.
                  Lone Bolt's 1st Round Clusta-Sewell gone...no QBs needed
                  Micah Parsons LB
                  Rashawn Slater OT/OG
                  Patrick Surtain CB
                  Caleb Farley CB
                  Ja'Marr Chase WR
                  Kyle Pitts TE
                  Alijah Vera-Tucker OT/OG
                  Azeez Ojulari OLB
                  Jaycee Horn CB

                  Comment


                  • #33
                    Originally posted by Boltjolt View Post

                    Not saying he cant BE a good NFL QB, just that he needs a lot of work.

                    Hurts ran the ball 233 times last season (340 pass att). That is Lamar Jackson and Tim Tebow range......2 QBs than ran after their first and seldom second pregressions. All three of those guys have well over over 600 carries to their career,.... Hurts with the least of teh 3 but he didnt play hardly at all his last season in Alabama.

                    CeeDee Lamb will be a top 12 drafted player and he had 65 of those receptions for 1398 yards, 14 TDs. Only one other player on that team had over 20 receptions (43) which was Rambo. So id say that #1 progression isnt so far off. You got a great WR, try and get him the ball.

                    I like Hurts.....preferably in the 3rd but wont complain if they use a 2nd......and hope he can be close to what Lamar is his second season. Just wish he was sitting behind Rivers instead of Tyrod while learning.

                    Burrow is still my #1 but as i said, whoever we get, i'll hope for the best and i DO think Hurts is right up Lynn's alley for what he wants in a QB.
                    340/233 = 1.45~ thats what i was talking about that was comparable to Kyle Murray's 3/2 = 1.5 pass to rush ratio when he came in to play those small minute in 2017. In that system, it has variety of routes, usually the lesser receiver will run those easy route that are almost decoylike and his primary target will handle the more complicated route. You see Ceedee will run a wheel route and Hurts check down and hit him on the third check. Those route takes time to develop and timing has to be right, so if you are not familiar with the system, those timing can be miss and QB are not encourage to keep looking in that system.

                    You are right, Hurts didn't have as much field time as the others which making his 9700+ career passing yard all more impressive. I believe the "he is stuck on #1 progression thing" a bit of the difference in how we interpret stats.

                    This is the receiving stats for the 2018 sooner, the Kyler Murray sooners.

                    https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...homa/2018.html

                    Marquise Brown: 75 reception, 1318 yards and 10 touchdown

                    CeeDee Lamb: 65 reception, 1150 yards and 11 touchdown

                    Next up.....

                    Grant Calcaterra: 26 reception, 396 yards and 6 TD (Rambo had a grand total of 8 reception this year, not exactly a star here)

                    Look familiar? Besides their primary targets the QB generally is not encourage to keep looking, you see, you see; you miss, don't try too hard. And those secondary receivers number won't be call unless it is in redzone situation when you see all those secondary receivers' reception to TD ratio is insane like (20%+)

                    Here is 2019:

                    https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/oklahoma/2019.html

                    Ceedee Lamb: 62 reception, 1327 yards and 14 td

                    Rambo: 43 reception, 743 yards and 5 td

                    Then the rest will be the rest. So for not being familiar with the offense, he is keeping the efficiency of the offense to a good degree considering the talent they had lost last year.


                    PS: Would love for him to learn behind Rivers too but I am glad the Rivers saga is over TBH. I have a feeling the Chargers would've drafted differently if it wasn't for the sake of trying to keep Rivers happy. Not a sly, just being honest.
                    Last edited by C'monchargers; 02-29-2020, 04:14 PM.

                    Comment


                    • #34
                      Originally posted by Lone Bolt View Post

                      That's awesome...best interview material I have seen on Hurts. Usually he is kinda chillin....playing too cool for school...liked hearing him open up a bit, joke around...and watching his eyes light up when talking Xs and Os...good stuff.
                      Yeah it was a pretty basic play but regardless, he handled it well. I like that video because you see the easy route which are the crosses which you see you throw. And you see the "swing" which is an anticipation concept which the ball should be thrown when the pick happens. And he identify the play correctly so kudo. I also want to see him throw that "swing", I want to see him hit that on the regular without being just a tad bit short.

                      Comment


                      • #35
                        Originally posted by C'monchargers View Post

                        PS: One thing Jalen Hurts said a few weeks back caught my ears. He said nothing in Alabama help him to succeed as a QB..... Here is a list of Nick Saban's QB and he was there since 2007

                        https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...a/passing.html

                        Yeah I would have to say Nick Saban is more often than not on the miss side as a QB developer. Mind you these are not low class recruit coming out of high school neither. Even in the case of Tua which he is playing well and he showed off his talent; but you have seen very little improvement from year to year. All he did was win, not improve.
                        Your PS is extremely interesting.
                        2020 ADOPT-A-BOLT CHOICES

                        Kenneth “K9” Murray (LB) #56

                        Joe Reed (WR-KR) #12

                        Comment


                        • #36
                          Originally posted by like54ninjas View Post

                          Your PS is extremely interesting.
                          Yeah didn't think about it until i heard him say it, then i thought about Miami dolphins and Joey Harrington...... and the long list of QB under his wing. Tua will improve with better coaching, he has what coaches can't teach, which is a great arm.

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