2021 Official Chargers Season Discusssion

[Panamamike]

9 plus months without football meaning live action in which actual hard hits are being delivered and players are playing hard for a win/roster spot. Sure practices have guys playing for roster spots but there is always a priority to not hit someone too hard (rightfully so).

They ran more plays in the last 2 days, against another team, with more hits, then they will ever receive in every preseason game combined. They also got to focus and concentrate plays on situational aspects and parts the field that are not readily available in numbers in the preseason. They actually know what they're doing, even if you don't. There's a risk of injury on any snap. Minimize those chances by focusing on value added snaps only.

How many red zone snaps did they practice in the last few days against the niners? How many of those snaps are going to get in the preseason. Same can be said for two-minute drill, 4 minute drill, and special teams.

Do a little research of snap counts of starters in the league in preseason this year and get back to me later. And please don't tell me that an extremely limited amount of snaps means didley piss.

How many starters did the Rams try to go there in preseason game 1? There's people harping on this board that Palmer only played well against backups. This is true for most young guys in their first or second preseason because the other teams starters aren't in the game.

[chargeroo]

What I saw in those scrimmages was people wrapping up and not hitting. To each is own Mike..

[richpjr]

What!

https://clutchpoints.com/2-chargers-...21-nfl-season/

Good Lord, that is some of the worst speculation I have read in a long time.

[Xenos]

Here’s another long, detailed, and analytical deep dive into Herbert’s sophomore season. Will there be a regression?

https://theathletic.com/2647353/2021/08/18/will-chargers-quarterback-justin-herbert-regress-in-2021-after-roy-campaign/

It took an unfortunate injury to Tyrod Taylor, but Justin Herbert took the NFL by storm last season, throwing his way into prominence after setting rookie records for touchdowns and completions while also putting up impressive yardage totals. But after such an explosive performance, it makes sense to ask: Can he keep it up? How likely is it that 2021 will be disappointing for him and Chargers fans?

Quarterbacks who have poor rookie years don’t all become busts, but QBs who have good rookie years are far more likely to be good quarterbacks in the long run. Even if Herbert “regresses,” there’s a good chance Chargers fans still will be happy with him.

In order to ask the question about whether or not Justin Herbert will regress, we need to figure out what that means. Herbert hit some impressive volume records as a rookie but also ranked fourth among rookie quarterbacks in attempts since 2010, making it a bit easier to hit the touchdown and completion marks he set.

What stats track better for quarterback quality and impact on winning? Things like efficiency and the ability to produce from play to play. Luckily for Herbert, he did well there, too, ranking 10th among 31 rookie QBs since 2008 with at least 300 passing attempts in era-adjusted yards per attempt. His adjusted net yards per attempt, a measure that incorporates sacks, touchdowns and interceptions, ranks him fifth in that group.

So why would we even consider the possibility that Herbert could take a step back?

(Just FYI, this isn’t new territory. Multiple analysts have looked into the numbers and asked the same questions — which The Athletic’s Daniel Popper explored a few months ago — and the outlook isn’t generally positive. We can take a look at many of the reasons for that and see how well they hold up.)

The first reason is completely external to Herbert’s play: a shift in head coach, offensive coordinator and scheme. Eric Eager, a data analyst for Pro Football Focus, looked over the history of quarterbacks switching coordinators in their second season, and the overall numbers look pretty bad. To some degree, however, that’s to be expected. Not many quarterbacks who had good rookie years saw their coordinators leave. When looking only at rookie quarterbacks with high PFF scores who saw their coordinators leave, the effect largely disappears.

In this case, new Chargers coordinator Joe Lombardi is well regarded as an offensive mind. But you never know how successful a new coordinator will be until you see the offense, and there’s much more room to fail than thrive. It’s a concern, one that’s magnified by a subpar performance by the Detroit Lions offense under Lombardi in 2014.

There are a few ways to construct a comparison case for Herbert. One is to look at high-performing rookies, like Herbert, and check out how well they fared in their second year in the league. Another is to take a look at rookies closest to Herbert’s rate numbers.

The issue here is that these are two completely different sets of quarterbacks, as Herbert’s plaudits are largely volumetric. The high-performing rookies who won in rate metrics generally regressed a bit but stayed above NFL average. Those closest to Herbert’s rate numbers largely stayed around NFL average but improved slightly.

We can split the difference and look at those who matched Herbert in era-adjusted volume and rate statistics — players whose yards per attempt (YPA) and adjusted net yards per attempt (ANYA) were near league average but whose passing yards per game were 10 percent higher than the league’s average. That leaves us with three quarterbacks: Andrew Luck, Cam Newton and Baker Mayfield.

That’s not a bad group to be compared to from a career perspective, but as second-year players, there wasn’t much immediate progression by the group. Newton did create additional production on the ground, but that doesn’t seem like a likely outcome for Herbert.

Given that we have a fairly small group of players to compare to Herbert’s overall passing profile, it might be better to look at what predicts future performance in general among quarterbacks, regardless of rookie status. The most common concern expressed for Herbert is his remarkable performance under pressure and his ability to sustain that into his second year.

That’s not a knock on Herbert. As Sam Monson of PFF puts it, “A quarterback playing lights out under pressure or in high-leverage situations may be justifiably praised for that performance, but it doesn’t necessarily mean he can repeat it in the future.” The research at Sports Info Solutions found the same thing, that performance under pressure can explain quarterback outcomes but doesn’t do a very good job providing information about future performance.

There are likely several reasons for this, and one is surely the lower number of snaps under pressure than snaps in a clean pocket. But that can’t be the only explanation because larger samples of pressured pocket performances demonstrate low stability when compared to smaller samples of clean-pocket performances.

One reason might be, as PFF’s Kevin Cole put it, clean pockets tend to be similar while each pressured pocket can be different in its own way. That could be one explanation for why performance under pressure isn’t that stable from season to season when compared to clean pockets — we’re including dissimilar situations, like interior pressure on a quick snap and edge pressure on a long bootleg.

Herbert’s 26th-ranked performance in a clean pocket is the biggest concern here and suggests that he could lose some ground heading into next season as that stays more or less the same while his performance under pressure comes back down to earth.

If Herbert’s performance under pressure regresses to the NFL average and his performance in a clean pocket improves only a little bit, his passer rating over the season would decrease by six points. If we decrease the amount of pressure Herbert sees, courtesy of the Chargers’ significant investment in the offensive line, that only reduces it from a six-point change to a five-point change.

There’s also the concern that his production is overly reliant on deep passes, which are also less stable than other measures from year to year. When excluding deep throws and short throws behind the line of scrimmage, his accuracy and yards per attempt are 25th in the league.

Magnifying that is the fact that his depth-adjusted completion rate is 22nd in the league. That is a fairly stable statistic from year to year as it accounts for the difficulty of throws at all levels of the field without being overly sensitive to big-yardage gains that come from deeper passes. While this isn’t as big a concern as his performance in a clean pocket, it’s certainly another mark against the notion that Herbert will keep up the same level of play.

There are a couple of other concerns, statistically, as well. He has a high rate of negatively graded throws, which tend to follow quarterbacks from year to year more than neutrally or positively graded throws. Even if those throws aren’t turnover-worthy plays (they aren’t for Herbert), they represent a lot of opportunities left on the table.

His performance also spikes on third down. That’s a good thing — everybody wants their quarterback to do better in high-leverage situations. But it’s also unstable, and his early-down performance is below the NFL average. It’s not only better to avoid third down if at all possible, but it’s more sustainable to perform better on earlier downs.

All of these statistical splits only suggest that Herbert might not be as explosive in 2021, not that he’s suddenly a bad investment for the franchise. That said, there are a fair number of signs of optimism for Herbert this coming season, reasons to think he won’t regress as much as statistical detractors say.

The first good sign is that it’s not actually all that unusual for a rookie to perform at Herbert’s level in a clean pocket. While he didn’t match Russell Wilson or Robert Griffin III for performance in a clean pocket, he ranks 18th of 47 rookies in PFF’s database for clean-pocket grade going back to 2008, performing better than players like Luck, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.

His overall performance in rate statistics — 17th in yards per attempt, 15th in net yards per attempt, 14th in expected points per play and 15th in PFF grade — was well above that of a typical rookie quarterback, even if it’s average across the NFL. His performance in yards per attempt and adjusted net yards per attempt rank 10th and sixth among rookies, respectively, since 2008. Even a slight improvement in his overall talent level in his second year would mean pretty significant value for the Chargers.

Not only that, some of the most alarming signs for Herbert aren’t there. His rate of turnover-worthy plays (TWPs) was extremely low last season, with only Tom Brady, Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Staffordthrowing fewer per dropback. If anything, Herbert’s interception rate should drop a little bit, as TWPs are more stable than interceptions.

In addition to his ability to avoid turnover-worthy throws, his rate of contested targets was only slightly above average among quarterbacks, and his receivers weren’t winning contested catches at an unusually high rate either, meaning he wasn’t throwing too many 50/50 balls. When he was, his receivers weren’t unduly rewarding him for risky plays that might not go his way in 2021.

He also doesn’t have to worry about some other areas where regression tends to rear its ugly head. One example is play action. While quarterbacks almost universally perform better on play-action dropbacks than they do on standard dropbacks, the amount by which they improve varies dramatically from year to year.

Herbert’s performance on play action was better than league average, but not by enough to be concerned that a snapback in performance would hurt him too much. When switching from play action to standard dropbacks, he fell from 13th in PFF grade to 15th. The same thing is true of his performance against non-blitz passing defenses, where he fell from 12th against the blitz to 16th against non-blitz defenses.

The best thing for Herbert might be what the Chargers have done to surround him with talent. In addition to receivers like Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, they drafted receiver Josh Palmer in the third round. Losing Hunter Henry hurts, and it’s unlikely that Jared Cookcan fill the gap left by his absence, but it’s easy to overstate the impact tight ends have on an offense, especially if they aren’t among the league’s best.

Instead, the biggest gains might be had along the offensive line, where the Chargers have added first-round pick Rashawn Slater and free-agent center Corey Linsley. Other free-agent additions like Matt Feiler and Oday Aboushi, who will play left guard and right guard, respectively, should provide some immediate upgrades as well, while Brian Bulaga continues to man the right tackle spot.

Because Herbert doesn’t tend to invite pressure — he has one of the fastest times to throw on non-play-action passes — this should result in immediate gains for the offense. His response to pressure is encouraging, too. Even if his “play under pressure” stats aren’t sustainable, it’s clear that Herbert won’t fail because he’s afraid to take a hit or step up into the pocket.

This also ignores the fact that Herbert gains the dual benefit of a semi-normal offseason where he gets to take first-team reps. In a year without OTAs to get acclimated to the overall offensive design and a training camp environment that didn’t give him too much exposure to the receiving cast he would be working with, it would have been tough for Herbert to improve chemistry with and comfort in the offense he eventually led. This year, he won’t have to worry about that, though he still has the hurdle of learning a new offense. A new offense won’t stop him from gaining a better understanding of his receivers’ tendencies, and that can be big for quarterbacks.

From a film perspective, there’s a lot to love with Herbert, but also a number of things he needs to improve upon. When looking solely at his traits, his impressive arm strength has stood out the most and is the biggest reason one might be optimistic about his level of play.

While his overall accuracy isn’t bad at the most basic level — he gets the ball to his receivers and avoids defenders — there are sometimes ball placement concerns when it comes to leading receivers into positive yards after the catch. This limits the value of good offensive design and cuts back on the number of yards a receiver will get. Not only that, but it makes it tougher for receivers to reel in throws when the ball either leads them into defenders or forces them to adjust outside of their frame.

That’s not to say he never leads receivers into big plays, either.

That skill has improved over time, as has his ability to more quickly diagnose the type of defenses he sees. He hasn’t had a particular weakness to the blitz, man coverage or zone coverage. Herbert isn’t overly reliant on his first read, nor is he too quick to move on from his initial look. He gets away from that first read at about the same rate as an average quarterback, throws to his second read about as often as the average NFL thrower and hits checkdowns at the same rate as well.

Nor is he overly reliant on wide-open throws that might not be there next season. He’s perfectly capable of making tight-window throws, throws that are a half-step open and throws that are acres open — something one might not expect given how talented his receiving corps is. It would be easy to lean on Keenan Allen’s ability to generate space, wait a second before throwing and hit the open man in stride, but Herbert hits tough throws as well and generated a lot of value over the middle in a crowded field.

That said, he still needs to improve on throw timing, as he has relied more on arm strength than a good internal clock to get the ball to his target on time.

While that allows defensive backs to close down on route concepts and jump throws, his ability to get back ahead of them with a faster throw has allowed him to ignore that issue. Over time, that will catch up to him, and he’ll need to make sure that the ball comes out as the route breaks.

Many of the arguments for Herbert’s regression are actually arguments that his hype had more to do with volume than with value. That’s fine, but it means that any decrease in volume will be seen as a sign of regression, even if he performs at the same level in his second year.

As an example, if Herbert threw the ball as often as second-year quarterback Daniel Jonesdid in 2020 — about average for an NFL passer last season — he’d only throw for 3,265 yards and 23 touchdowns, ranking 19th in both categories. If he only manages to meet those marks next season with a similar number of throws, it will look a lot like “regression,” when in reality he simply was throwing the ball less.

That might not even be a bad thing. The Chargers could improve defensively or on special teams, which might prevent them from having to throw when behind. That wasn’t the reason for Herbert’s high volume last season, but with a new coaching philosophy in place, it could mean he throws the ball less as the team may not need “hero ball.” This would allow Lombardi to run the ball more late in games to close things out. In short, a better year for the Chargers might mean less volume for Herbert even if he performs just as well as he did last season.

On balance, there’s probably more evidence that Herbert will underperform than overperform. But the case for or against him isn’t particularly strong in either direction, and there’s a lot more evidence to be positive about his long-term outlook.

It’s tough to predict how quarterbacks will progress. But the point is, we shouldn’t merely take it as a given that rookie quarterbacks will get better. Dak Prescott, Baker Mayfield and Jameis Winston all took relative downturns in their second seasons. One of the best rookie performances we’ve seen in recent years came from Robert Griffin III, who didn’t just regress — he lost his starting position and is currently without a team. Josh Allen looked extremely poor by the same metrics as a rookie and now could be an MVP candidate.

Where will Herbert fall on the spectrum? We’ll find out more this fall.

[Ghost of Quacksaw]

What!

https://clutchpoints.com/2-chargers-...21-nfl-season/

A clear example of a publication making up shit on the fly.

[sonorajim]

The odds are that Staley has run his preseason program by his staff, analytics, sports performance and team leaders.
He isn't flipping a coin. Nothing is perfect, including Staley, his program or his resources.
I like the part where an effort is being made to move forward on all fronts.
Same old, same old has produced unsatisfying results.

[Boltjolt]

Okay, okay, in that case...
I
...and many others call him "Butterfingers Benji"...

You and a few others us more accurate.

[Bolts&noles]

Any word on how the kickers did yesterday?

[UglyTruth]

They ran more plays in the last 2 days, against another team, with more hits, then they will ever receive in every preseason game combined. They also got to focus and concentrate plays on situational aspects and parts the field that are not readily available in numbers in the preseason. They actually know what they're doing, even if you don't. There's a risk of injury on any snap. Minimize those chances by focusing on value added snaps only.

How many red zone snaps did they practice in the last few days against the niners? How many of those snaps are going to get in the preseason. Same can be said for two-minute drill, 4 minute drill, and special teams.

Do a little research of snap counts of starters in the league in preseason this year and get back to me later. And please don't tell me that an extremely limited amount of snaps means didley piss.

How many starters did the Rams try to go there in preseason game 1? There's people harping on this board that Palmer only played well against backups. This is true for most young guys in their first or second preseason because the other teams starters aren't in the game.

I disagree with your “They actually know what they're doing, even if you don't” take first of all. You assume that because their professionals. I bet you thought the same thing about Mike McCoy. My dog Rio knew more about football than he did. If you talk to Cardinals fans, they will give you even some more colorful language.

And you seem to claim that coaches like Andy Reid and Bruce Arians are stupid for putting their starting HOF QBs like Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes out there in preseason. Bill Bellichek put out his starting QB as well. So now are you saying that you know more than them? These are three coaches who combined have more championship rings than you do brain cells.

You quoted my post and made an argument in the first paragraph but didn’t even address my point….where are these guys getting hit violently in practice? I can tell you…never. My whole point is that these guys aren’t used to getting the physical contact in practice that they would in preseason.

Again I hope you are right on this and it doesn’t impact the Chargers health.

[Formula 21]

Friday news

— Defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw conditioned on a side field as he remains out of action with a shoulder injury. He wandered over behind the Chargers sideline to watch the action, and several times point out, quite loudly, how “soft” he believed L.A.’s offense looked.

[21&500]

Friday news

— Defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw conditioned on a side field as he remains out of action with a shoulder injury. He wandered over behind the Chargers sideline to watch the action, and several times point out, quite loudly, how “soft” he believed L.A.’s offense looked.

I really hope some of our guys responded ....

[Formula 21]

I really hope some of our guys responded ....

I worry that their DL is going to kick our 2nd string OL’s asses all over the field in the game today.