Tweet
Another nice article that plays devil’s advocate to passing it so much on first downs. This time the Bills are the example. Passing can be as predictable as running up the middle on first downs if you don’t mix it up.
4. The Bills came out passing (and passing some more) until they had set a record for the Sean McDermott era as head coach. Was that the right approach in their shocking 9-6 defeat to Jacksonville?
Kansas City, Buffalo and Seattle ranked first through third, respectively, on the Cook Index last season, meaning they passed most frequently on early downs, early in games. All three offenses lost traction at various points against 2-deep coverages, leading The Athletic’s Ted Nguyen and I to ask last week whether Kansas City in particular had reached the limitsof pass-happiness.
Even if Buffalo had pulled out a victory, there is no question this season has seen the Bills regress on offense. They ranked fourth in offensive EPA per game through Week 13 last season. They rank 15th since, counting playoffs, and Sunday they suffered through their worst single-game EPA performance on offense since 2019 Week 17, when Matt Barkley played most of the game. Worse for Buffalo, the Jaguars entered Sunday ranked 29th in defensive EPA per game.
The Bills were especially one-dimensional against the Jaguars, despite the game remaining close. They finished this game with a season-high 81 percent reading on the Cook Index, executing 17 pass plays with only four rushing plays on early downs in the first 28 minutes. For the full game, the Bills executed pass plays on 82 percent of early downs, Buffalo’s highest percentage in 77 games under McDermott.
Buffalo, like Kansas City against Green Bay, struggled creating explosive plays in the passing game. The Bills gained more than 15 yards on only 8.9 percent of qualifying attempts (16 percent is the league average). The Chiefs were at 6.3 percent against the Packers, second-lowest for them in a game since the start of last season. Kansas City’s lowest since then was against Buffalo in Week 5. Its third-lowest was against the Giants last week.
“The passing game is way more efficient until you have a 50-10 pass-to-run ratio,” a veteran coach said. “How good does the passing game look then?”
Kansas City, Buffalo and Seattle ranked first through third, respectively, on the Cook Index last season, meaning they passed most frequently on early downs, early in games. All three offenses lost traction at various points against 2-deep coverages, leading The Athletic’s Ted Nguyen and I to ask last week whether Kansas City in particular had reached the limitsof pass-happiness.
Even if Buffalo had pulled out a victory, there is no question this season has seen the Bills regress on offense. They ranked fourth in offensive EPA per game through Week 13 last season. They rank 15th since, counting playoffs, and Sunday they suffered through their worst single-game EPA performance on offense since 2019 Week 17, when Matt Barkley played most of the game. Worse for Buffalo, the Jaguars entered Sunday ranked 29th in defensive EPA per game.
The Bills were especially one-dimensional against the Jaguars, despite the game remaining close. They finished this game with a season-high 81 percent reading on the Cook Index, executing 17 pass plays with only four rushing plays on early downs in the first 28 minutes. For the full game, the Bills executed pass plays on 82 percent of early downs, Buffalo’s highest percentage in 77 games under McDermott.
Buffalo, like Kansas City against Green Bay, struggled creating explosive plays in the passing game. The Bills gained more than 15 yards on only 8.9 percent of qualifying attempts (16 percent is the league average). The Chiefs were at 6.3 percent against the Packers, second-lowest for them in a game since the start of last season. Kansas City’s lowest since then was against Buffalo in Week 5. Its third-lowest was against the Giants last week.
“The passing game is way more efficient until you have a 50-10 pass-to-run ratio,” a veteran coach said. “How good does the passing game look then?”
Comment