Joe Lombardi is the Chargers Offensive Coordinator

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  • Lyth
    Registered Charger Fan
    • Sep 2018
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    Originally posted by therber219 View Post

    Scary thing about this, is that is what they tried last year, and cost them what, 4 games? because they couldn't run? Sounds like what cost Lynn his job....hopefully thsi works out different!!
    That only works if you can run the ball when you need to. We didn't have the line or the backs.

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    • Xenos
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      Originally posted by Lyth View Post

      That only works if you can run the ball when you need to. We didn't have the line or the backs.
      If we want to make it far and win a championship, we will need to eventually be able to run better. We can definitely keep passing like nobody's business but eventually like the Bills, we will run into problems. Got to get some better beef on this OL this offseason.

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      • Lyth
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        • Sep 2018
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        Originally posted by Xenos View Post

        If we want to make it far and win a championship, we will need to eventually be able to run better. We can definitely keep passing like nobody's business but eventually like the Bills, we will run into problems. Got to get some better beef on this OL this offseason.
        I don't think our backs are right either. EK is good, but not the type of runner who can wear down a defense to give you those 1st downs in the 4th quarter. Tough to evaluate the rest with the line we have, but they don't seem like the answer to the problem of short, tough yards.

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        • Parcells
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          Originally posted by Lyth View Post

          I don't think our backs are right either. EK is good, but not the type of runner who can wear down a defense to give you those 1st downs in the 4th quarter. Tough to evaluate the rest with the line we have, but they don't seem like the answer to the problem of short, tough yards.
          While I don’t love our backs, I also agree with the idea that it’s not where to spend capital while we’re building. Invest that draft capital in the O-line to protect Herbert.

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          • PR#1
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            • Aug 2019
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            Right. Follow bills model and bring in 3 new FA olineman.

            Tevi lamp and Feeney are FA. Let them go.

            Grab LT for 1st pick in the draft.

            If new oline can run block, running problems solved and Herbie gets protection he needs

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            • gzubeck
              Ines Sainz = Jet Bait!
              • Jan 2019
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              Originally posted by PR#1 View Post
              Right. Follow bills model and bring in 3 new FA olineman.

              Tevi lamp and Feeney are FA. Let them go.

              Grab LT for 1st pick in the draft.

              If new oline can run block, running problems solved and Herbie gets protection he needs
              Feeney and Herb are best Buds so unless we try to get half of what he's worth he probably stays. Tevi if reasonable will probably stay as well. Lamp....I don't know know...he's never really reached his expected potential and gets burned at the worst times.
              Chiefs won the Superbowl with 10 Rookies....

              "Locked, Cocked, and ready to Rock!" Jim Harbaugh

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              • Fleet
                TPB Founder
                • Jun 2013
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                Not sure if posted. Too busy to look. lol

                NEW OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR ANALYSIS: AFC


                BY C.D. CARTER
                January 29, 2021, 12:49 pm ET
                Updated On: January 29, 2021, 3:18 pm ET
                FacebookTwitterRedditEmailPrintIt's the time of year when offensive coordinators are replenished as the ineffective OCs get the ax and effective ones get promotions. That turnover creates a never-ending cycle of fantasy speculation -- speculation in which I will happily participate.

                Below are some preemptive looks at new offensive coordinators in the AFC and what they might mean for fantasy football valuations in the coming months. Free agency and the NFL draft could, of course, void large swaths of this analysis. Nevertheless!


                LA Chargers offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi


                I’ll try not to get bogged down analyzing the myriad failures of Lombardi’s first go-round as offensive coordinator. His stint in Detroit was -- not to be dramatic -- an unmitigated disaster. Under head coach Jim Caldwell in 2014, Lombardi botched his chance to rip opposing defenses with Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and Golden Tate in their primes. He was unceremoniously dispatched after a wretched start to the 2015 season, failing to center the offense around Megatron -- who, for the zoomers, was a big, fast wideout who humiliated opponents in the 2010s -- and turning Stafford into Alex Smith.

                “I felt a strong run game, a good play-action passing game would have given (Stafford) some protection and allowed those receivers to get downfield,” Lombardi said after he was fired. “I thought (that) plan would be successful. Obviously, for whatever reason, whether it was a poor plan or not executed, it certainly didn’t work out the way we were hoping it would.”

                Here’s to hoping the hard lessons from his disastrous stint in Detroit are fresh on Lombardi’s mind as he takes over an offense headed by a signal caller, Justin Herbert, coming off one of the great rookie campaigns in NFL history. Let us pray.

                Lombardi’s comments on how he’ll coach the LA offense have, so far, been short of terrible for fantasy purposes. He told reporters this week that an uptempo attack would be “a part of what we’re building here.” While it’s hardly a commitment to running a fast-paced, aggressive offense, it seems Lombardi and new head coach Brandon Staley are at least considering the upside of such an approach. Herbert thrived in 2020 with the Chargers leading the league in offensive snaps per game (70.4), driven in part by a defense that couldn’t stop anyone. More of the same with an offseason of further development for fantasy’s eighth highest scoring QB in 2020 could make Herbert the target for drafters who fade the first half dozen quarterbacks off the draft board. Even if his touchdown rate dips below his 2020 rate of 5.2 percent, Herbert should offer a sky-high yardage floor if the Bolts embrace the uptempo offensive approach Lombardi alluded to during his introductory presser.

                A fast-paced offense predicated on plenty of drop backs for Herbert could also make Mike Williams and Hunter Henry undervalued fantasy prospects in 2021. In Herbert’s 15 starts, Williams led the team in air yards by a wide margin while seeing a 14 percent target share. That Williams’ path to every-week starter status in 12-team leagues probably still hinges on an Allen injury shouldn’t dissuade fantasy players from using a later round pick on Williams -- especially in best ball formats and deeper leagues with multiple flex spots. The prospect of Williams missing two games for every one of his acrobatic downfield catches remains.

                Herbert’s propensity for targeting tight ends was a curiously under-discussed trend in 2020. Chargers tight ends combined for nine touchdowns and a 24 percent target share, with Henry naturally leading the pack with a 16 percent target share while missing three games. Lombardi and Staley letting Herbert cook -- apologies to Seahawks truthers -- could easily make Henry a value option in a draft season that will see two or three tight ends go in the first two rounds.

                Both Lombardi and Staley have talked up an analytics-driven approach to fourth down play calling and (presumably) run-pass splits -- an offensive strategy that would mark a dramatic departure from the Anthony Lynn-era Chargers. Then there’s this: Lombardi this week compared Austin Ekeler to Alvin Kamara, which might not be the most stunning comp considering Kamara might be the only pass-catching running back better than Ekeler. Lombardi comes from the Saints, where he watched Sean Payton utilize pass catchers out of the backfield better than any team in the league. Lest we forget, before Kamara became a PPR deity, Darren Sproles eclipsed 100 targets in back-to-back seasons for the Saints, piling up a combined 161 receptions in 2011-12. In 2007, Lombardi’s first year as an offensive assistant under Payton, Reggie Bush racked up 98 targets in 12 games (8.17 per game). This is a needlessly drawn out way of saying Lombardi comes from a rich tradition of force feeding pass catchers out of the backfield. Ekeler should continue as a PPR cheat code in 2021.

                I’m wary of drawing comparisons for how Lombardi treated Megatron in Detroit and how he might use Keenan Allen in LA since the similarities between Megatron and Allen end with both being human beings who play receiver in the NFL. Calvin Johnson -- who averaged four yards more per reception than Allen -- drew 128 targets in Lombardi’s offense, his fewest outside his rookie season. If Lombardi learns his lesson and Herbert continues to pepper Allen -- as he did throughout 2020 -- Allen should be among the safest wideouts in fantasy next season. Allen, after all, was seventh in expected fantasy points among wide receivers in Herbert’s rookie year, commanding a 27 percent target share despite missing two games and parts of others. He would have eclipsed a 30 percent target share with 16 healthy games.

                I agree with my younger and more handsome Rotoworld colleague, Hayden Winks, who predicted Staley and Lombardi would operate a pass-heavy offense and play to Herbert’s strengths -- the assumption of rational coaching, of course, being subject to reality.
                New York Jets offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur


                The younger of the juggling LaFleur brothers has been under Kyle Shanahan’s tutelage since 2014 in Cleveland, most recently serving as the Niners’ passing game coordinator from 2019-2020. If he’s taken his longtime boss’s offensive approach to heart, he could be a boon for Jets skill position players, especially whoever gets the team’s lead-back role.

                Some would say it’s pointless to write about the Jets’ offense until we know if Deshaun Watson will get his (reported) wish and join the team. Others would agree. But I’ll give it a go.

                Shanahan’s offenses have traditionally leaned on the running attack in neutral and positive game script. The 49ers in 2020 had the 12th lowest pass rate in neutral and positive script, which was exceedingly rare for the injury-ravaged team. In 2019, the Niners sported the second lowest overall pass rate. In 2018, it was 10th lowest. You get it: LaFleur comes from a run-heavy tradition. That doesn’t mean the team won’t predicate its offense on Watson if he lands with the Jets, but with budding superstar left tackle Mekhi Becton, it’ll be well worth keeping tabs on who might lead the New York backfield in 2021. For now, La’Mical Perine, Frank Gore, Ty Johnson, and Josh Adams make up the team’s running back depth chart. After flashing in limited opportunity last year, Johnson -- signed through 2022 -- could be a name to monitor.
                Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator Todd Downing


                Downing gets the job vacated by Arthur Smith’s departure to Atlanta, where he’ll look to #establish with the Falcons. Downing, who has been the Titans’ tight end coach, inherits one of the run-heaviest offenses in the NFL, especially when game script is on the Titans’ side. Tennessee had the lowest pass rate in positive game script in 2019 and had the fourth lowest in 2020. Handing the ball to Derrick Henry when one has the lead is probably too tempting a formula from which to stray. I would expect Downing to maintain the Titans’ high-T offensive mentality in 2021.

                This is Downing’s second shot as an OC after he was the Raiders’ coordinator in 2017. The Raiders that season had the league’s ninth lowest pass rate in neutral situations, averaging the third lowest offensive plays per game with a brutally slow-paced approach. Probably we can’t come to too many conclusions about Downing based on the Raiders’ 2017 personnel: young(ish) Derek Carr, completely washed Marshawn Lynch, and Michael Crabtree as the team’s WR1. Now he’ll work with Ryan Tannehill, Derek Henry, and A.J. Brown, who had flashes of utter dominance despite fighting through serious knee injuries in 2020. There’s little indication for now that Tennessee’s offense will change dramatically with Downing in charge. There likely won’t be enough pass volume to support more than one or two fantasy-relevant pass catchers in the Titans’ offense.
                Colts offensive coordinator Marcus Brady


                Brady comes into the Colts’ OC job with six years of coordinating experience in the CFL, where he coached before Frank Reich hired him. I think it’s a safe assumption that Reich will continue to call plays in 2021. That leaves little room for speculation of how Indy’s offense might change in the coming year.

                Whichever QB is under center for the Colts this season will have a quietly explosive surrounding cast, with Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines in the backfield and Parris Campbell and Michael Pittman catching passes, as T.Y. Hilton is as good as gone from Indianapolis. If the Colts’ infuriating three-man tight end rotation narrows this offseason, the position could prove valuable for fantasy purposes. Reich’s offense is theoretically friendly for tight ends, as evidenced by Jack Doyle, Mo Alie-Cox (a restricted free agent), and Trey Burton (an unrestricted free agent) combining for a 27 percent target share in 2020. Indy tight ends had a collective target share of 32 percent in 2019. That’s … a lot.
                Steelers offensive coordinator Matt Canada


                Canada, hired in what may be a blatant violation of the Rooney Rule by the Rooneys’ team, will take over the Pittsburgh offense after offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner and line coach Shaun Sarrett were let go in January.

                Expect the Steelers to talk endlessly this offseason about establishing the run in 2021 after a season in which Pittsburgh had the second highest neutral pass rate (behind only Jacksonville). James Conner is going to test free agency and probably won’t be back with the Steelers, opening the backfield for a new lead back. Maybe that’s Anthony McFarland or Benny Snell -- whom Mike Tomlin praised vociferously late in the 2020 season -- or maybe it’s a rookie or free agent. Whoever gets the gig, expect them to get every chance to see volume in an offense that will look to atone for its pass-heavy sins of 2020 and run a more balanced offense, for better or worse. McFarland, by the bye, played under Canada at the University of Maryland and rushed for more than 1,000 yards. That familiarity might at least give McFarland a fleeting shot at being the guy, though no one would be shocked if the Steelers spend an early-round draft pick on a running back as a sacrifice to the Run Game Gods.

                Canada’s hire means the Steelers won’t have to learn a new offensive language in 2021. And there’s this from The Athletic’s Sean Gentille: “There’s going to be more motion and play action. No way around that; it’s why you hire Matt Canada.”

                Gentille emphasized that Canada is considered an adaptable play caller, and the The Athletic’s Mike Kaboly said “Canada’s offense is all about creating confusion on the defensive side of the ball and allowing the offensive linemen to have better angles on blocks. His scheme should complement what Roethlisberger and the offense already do well.”

                Ben Roethlisberger has already conceded to restructuring his massive contract to give it one more go with the Steelers. JuJu Smith-Schuster’s potential departure in free agency -- the team doesn’t seem all that into bringing back their slot receiver -- could create a narrow target tree for Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool, both of whom would benefit tremendously from another season with a pass-first approach.

                Gentille said Claypool could be further utilized as a rusher in Canada’s offense after he scored on two of his ten rushing attempts in 2020. Wideout Quadree Henderson, Gentille pointed out, had 631 yards on 60 rushes under Canada at the University of Pittsburgh in 2016. I must include this disclaimer: Wide receiver rushing production is classic fantasy football fool’s gold. Don’t chase it.
                Jaguars offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell


                Urban Meyer’s exceptionally uninspiring offensive coordinator hire has a play calling history ten miles long (I printed it out, trust me). Five of Bevell’s offenses have finished the season as a top-ten scoring unit in his 15 years as an OC or head coach. Bevell’s offenses have been among the five run-heaviest in the league six times over his career, including three years in which his offenses ran the ball more than anyone. Drafting Trevor Lawrence probably doesn’t mean the Jags are going to #establish in 2021, but the trend is undeniable: Bevell is among the most conservative play callers in recent NFL history.

                Nevertheless, there is hope for the 2021 Jacksonville offense. Bevell’s 2019 Lions Offense was an aggressive, explosive unit that shredded opponents before Matthew Stafford suffered a season-ending back injury. Detroit had the league’s tenth highest neutral pass rate during Stafford’s nine-week run in 2019. Stafford was red hot, averaging 312.5 yards and throwing 19 touchdowns in eight games. With Meyer’s forward-thinking offensive tendencies, latter-day Bevell could plunge Lawrence head first into an aggressive passing attack.

                Bevell’s recent love affair with the long ball could be an excellent development for D.J. Chark. Headed into the 2020 season, Bevell's offenses averaged the sixth highest deep ball rate among current NFL play callers, per 4for4’s TJ Hernandez. Chark, a downfield ball hawk, had the second highest average depth of target among wideouts who averaged at least seven targets per game in 2020, according to Hernandez. Chark also led the team with a 20 percent air yards share. While he probably won’t see the volume necessary to become a fantasy WR1, his usage in a Meyer/Bevell offense with Lawrence under center could make Chark a no-brainer WR2 -- unless, of course, the team signs a superior free agent wideout.

                Unless James Robinson continues to operate as the preeminent workhorse back, he’s not going to return value in 2021. The chances of the Jaguars failing to upgrade their backfield this offseason are about the same as me embracing the Robust RB draft strategy. The team moving on from Chris Thompson should further boost Robinson’s early-offseason average draft position. Beware.

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                • Lyth
                  Registered Charger Fan
                  • Sep 2018
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                  Originally posted by Parcells View Post

                  While I don’t love our backs, I also agree with the idea that it’s not where to spend capital while we’re building. Invest that draft capital in the O-line to protect Herbert.
                  There are two ways to think about that. Are you more protected on 3rd and 10 or 3rd and 2? Herbert has made the most of obvious passing downs, it just seems like we have alot of them. Not a good way to keep a QB healthy no matter what line you have. I agree, line is top priority. We have to look at backs too though. We don't need an Earl Campbell, but sometimes you need to force a yard or two. I don't care if they line Lamp up at tailback as long as he can get it done.

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                  • Xenos
                    Registered Charger Fan
                    • Feb 2019
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                    Here's some more thoughts from Popper:
                    Don't worry, Chargers fans. New offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi will let Justin Herbert throw the ball.


                    Don’t overreact to Lombardi’s comments on his run-pass philosophy
                    A certain quote caused quite a stir on social media earlier this week, but I think a lot of the reaction was misguided and overblown.

                    Lombardi was asked for his general thoughts on the game trending toward more pass-heavy offenses. Does he believe in establishing the run? Or, with a quarterback as talented as Justin Herbert, would he be willing to pass more and take advantage of that gifted arm?

                    “I think every situation is different,” Lombardi said. “I heard a high school coach (tell) me once when I was really young, just starting out in coaching, he said, ‘You pass to score and you run to win.’ And it takes you a while to kind of figure out what he meant by that. But if you just look at bare statistics, you know every time a quarterback drops back to pass, you average 7.5 to 8 yards per pass and you might average 4.5 yards per run. So, man, it’s easier sometimes to get big plays and chunks and get the ball downfield passing it. But if you have no running game, then it becomes harder to throw. So I think there’s got to be a balance.

                    “There are times in the game when you really want to be able to run, whether you’re in the red zone or late in the game and you’ve got the lead. So I think it’s important to have some balance, but I think when you’ve got a quarterback as talented as Justin, definitely, you want to let him throw the ball when it’s appropriate. That’s for sure.”

                    I tweeted out the adage from the high school coach — “You pass to score and you run to win” — and people lost their minds, particularly those who are more analytically inclined. But I do not think this answer, overall, was that surprising.

                    Lombardi is parroting the philosophy of the man he learned under for 15 seasons: Saints head coach Sean Payton.

                    Payton is aggressive and throws on early downs. But he also believes in having a strong run game. It is one of the main reasons why the Saints have spent so much draft capital on offensive linemen during Payton’s tenure. The idea is to build a lead early in the game by passing, and then close out the game with a strong rushing attack that can burn clock.

                    This is what Lombardi was getting at with that old saying from the high school coach. A better way to frame it is: You pass to build the lead and run to close out the game. Obviously, it is important to diverge from that formula when necessary, like when your running game is floundering. But the idea is logical.

                    Having the option of running the ball efficiently, particularly late in games, is not a bad thing. You just need the personnel — read: offensive line — to do it. The Chargers must bring in more talent up front if they want to have this option available. I believe that will be a priority for general manager Tom Telesco this offseason.

                    Otherwise, I thought Lombardi’s answer checked a lot of boxes. He acknowledged that passing is more efficient on aggregate than running. He acknowledged the importance of taking advantage of Herbert’s skill set.

                    Lombardi is going to bring a lot of Payton’s philosophy to Los Angeles. From 2011 to 2020, the Saints were the second-most pass-heavy team on early downs in the NFL at 55.8 percent, trailing only the Packers, according to rbsdm.com. The Chargers, meanwhile, passed on 51.8 percent of their early downs last season under Anthony Lynn and coordinator Shane Steichen to rank 20th in the NFL.

                    Things are changing. Do not worry. Herbert is the focal point, and the Chargers will be passing more on early downs. When Lombardi says “balance,” he is not referring to a 50-50 split. He is merely identifying the benefits of being able to mix it up.

                    One important note, though: Balance is good if both the run and pass games are equally effective, but if one lags behind the other, then maintaining balance is counterproductive. It is important to lean into your strengths.


                    Can Lombardi learn from the mistakes he made in Detroit?
                    Lombardi’s last and only shot at calling plays in the NFL came with the Lions in 2014-15. It did not end well. Lombardi was fired after 23 games. He never jelled with Matthew Stafford, who was 26 and just entering the prime of his career, or head coach Jim Caldwell.

                    I asked Lombardi what he learned from that experience in Detroit, and I thought his answer was both illuminating and encouraging.

                    “The biggest thing is just being able to be more flexible,” Lombardi said. “Spending so much time in New Orleans and doing things one way, you kind of get used to that. When you’re put into a new situation where the schedule is different, and maybe you’re around coaches that weren’t used to doing things the way that you were used to, just having the flexibility to adjust a little bit better, maybe, than we did back then. That’s the biggest thing, just the flexibility to adjust when things aren’t the way that you’re used to them being.”

                    This is a crucial lesson. Successful coaches mold their schemes and concepts around their players. Coaches who remain stubborn in their approach and force players to adapt — like square pegs in round holes — are destined for failure.

                    Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll learned this. When Daboll got his first chance to call plays with the Browns in 2009, he was not very open to outside ideas from players. As quarterback Derek Anderson told our Robert Mays, “‘He kind of wanted to do his own thing. Like, ‘Hey, that’s not how I see it. That’s not how I see us going.’”

                    But he grew and developed and changed his approach, and, as Mays wrote in this great profile, Daboll’s newfound collaborative mindset is part of what has allowed him to flourish in Buffalo.

                    The first step is self-awareness, and Lombardi clearly understands how important it is to be “flexible,” as he put it. Only time will tell if he has actually grown, like Daboll did. Lombardi’s comments lead me to believe he has.

                    Comment

                    • Topcat
                      AKA "Pollcat"
                      • Jan 2019
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                      Originally posted by Fleet View Post
                      Not sure if posted. Too busy to look. lol

                      NEW OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR ANALYSIS: AFC


                      BY C.D. CARTER
                      January 29, 2021, 12:49 pm ET
                      Updated On: January 29, 2021, 3:18 pm ET
                      FacebookTwitterRedditEmailPrintIt's the time of year when offensive coordinators are replenished as the ineffective OCs get the ax and effective ones get promotions. That turnover creates a never-ending cycle of fantasy speculation -- speculation in which I will happily participate.

                      Below are some preemptive looks at new offensive coordinators in the AFC and what they might mean for fantasy football valuations in the coming months. Free agency and the NFL draft could, of course, void large swaths of this analysis. Nevertheless!


                      LA Chargers offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi


                      I’ll try not to get bogged down analyzing the myriad failures of Lombardi’s first go-round as offensive coordinator. His stint in Detroit was -- not to be dramatic -- an unmitigated disaster. Under head coach Jim Caldwell in 2014, Lombardi botched his chance to rip opposing defenses with Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and Golden Tate in their primes. He was unceremoniously dispatched after a wretched start to the 2015 season, failing to center the offense around Megatron -- who, for the zoomers, was a big, fast wideout who humiliated opponents in the 2010s -- and turning Stafford into Alex Smith.
                      Wait a minute. In 2014, Lombardi as OC helped coach the Lions to an 11-4 record. Not exactly "botching" it...and Megatron had over 1,000 receiving yards in only 13 games...not exactly "botching" it...these writers are so lazy they can't even look up some simple stats...



                      The official source for NFL news, video highlights, fantasy football, game-day coverage, schedules, stats, scores and more.

                      Comment

                      • Formula 21
                        The Future is Now
                        • Jun 2013
                        • 16374
                        • Republic of San Diego
                        • Send PM

                        LA Chargers offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi


                        I’ll try not to get bogged down analyzing the myriad failures of Lombardi’s first go-round as offensive coordinator. His stint in Detroit was -- not to be dramatic -- an unmitigated disaster. Under head coach Jim Caldwell in 2014, Lombardi botched his chance to rip opposing defenses with Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and Golden Tate in their primes. He was unceremoniously dispatched after a wretched start to the 2015 season, failing to center the offense around Megatron -- who, for the zoomers, was a big, fast wideout who humiliated opponents in the 2010s -- and turning Stafford into Alex Smith.

                        “I felt a strong run game, a good play-action passing game would have given (Stafford) some protection and allowed those receivers to get downfield,” Lombardi said after he was fired. “I thought (that) plan would be successful. Obviously, for whatever reason, whether it was a poor plan or not executed, it certainly didn’t work out the way we were hoping it would.”

                        Here’s to hoping the hard lessons from his disastrous stint in Detroit are fresh on Lombardi’s mind as he takes over an offense headed by a signal caller, Justin Herbert, coming off one of the great rookie campaigns in NFL history. Let us pray.

                        Lombardi’s comments on how he’ll coach the LA offense have, so far, been short of terrible for fantasy purposes. He told reporters this week that an uptempo attack would be “a part of what we’re building here.” While it’s hardly a commitment to running a fast-paced, aggressive offense, it seems Lombardi and new head coach Brandon Staley are at least considering the upside of such an approach. Herbert thrived in 2020 with the Chargers leading the league in offensive snaps per game (70.4), driven in part by a defense that couldn’t stop anyone. More of the same with an offseason of further development for fantasy’s eighth highest scoring QB in 2020 could make Herbert the target for drafters who fade the first half dozen quarterbacks off the draft board. Even if his touchdown rate dips below his 2020 rate of 5.2 percent, Herbert should offer a sky-high yardage floor if the Bolts embrace the uptempo offensive approach Lombardi alluded to during his introductory presser.

                        A fast-paced offense predicated on plenty of drop backs for Herbert could also make Mike Williams and Hunter Henry undervalued fantasy prospects in 2021. In Herbert’s 15 starts, Williams led the team in air yards by a wide margin while seeing a 14 percent target share. That Williams’ path to every-week starter status in 12-team leagues probably still hinges on an Allen injury shouldn’t dissuade fantasy players from using a later round pick on Williams -- especially in best ball formats and deeper leagues with multiple flex spots. The prospect of Williams missing two games for every one of his acrobatic downfield catches remains.

                        Herbert’s propensity for targeting tight ends was a curiously under-discussed trend in 2020. Chargers tight ends combined for nine touchdowns and a 24 percent target share, with Henry naturally leading the pack with a 16 percent target share while missing three games. Lombardi and Staley letting Herbert cook -- apologies to Seahawks truthers -- could easily make Henry a value option in a draft season that will see two or three tight ends go in the first two rounds.

                        Both Lombardi and Staley have talked up an analytics-driven approach to fourth down play calling and (presumably) run-pass splits -- an offensive strategy that would mark a dramatic departure from the Anthony Lynn-era Chargers. Then there’s this: Lombardi this week compared Austin Ekeler to Alvin Kamara, which might not be the most stunning comp considering Kamara might be the only pass-catching running back better than Ekeler. Lombardi comes from the Saints, where he watched Sean Payton utilize pass catchers out of the backfield better than any team in the league. Lest we forget, before Kamara became a PPR deity, Darren Sproles eclipsed 100 targets in back-to-back seasons for the Saints, piling up a combined 161 receptions in 2011-12. In 2007, Lombardi’s first year as an offensive assistant under Payton, Reggie Bush racked up 98 targets in 12 games (8.17 per game). This is a needlessly drawnout way of saying Lombardi comes from a rich tradition of force feeding pass catchers out of the backfield. Ekeler should continue as a PPR cheat code in 2021.

                        I’m wary of drawing comparisons for how Lombardi treated Megatron in Detroit and how he might use Keenan Allen in LA since the similarities between Megatron and Allen end with both being human beings who play receiver in the NFL. Calvin Johnson -- who averaged four yards more per reception than Allen -- drew 128 targets in Lombardi’s offense, his fewest outside his rookie season. If Lombardi learns his lesson and Herbert continues to pepper Allen -- as he did throughout 2020 -- Allen should be among the safest wideouts in fantasy next season. Allen, after all, was seventh in expected fantasy points among wide receivers in Herbert’s rookie year, commanding a 27 percent target share despite missing two games and parts of others. He would have eclipsed a 30 percent target share with 16 healthy games.

                        I agree with my younger and more handsome Rotoworld colleague, Hayden Winks, who predicted Staley and Lombardi would operate a pass-heavy offense and play to Herbert’s strengths -- the assumption of rational coaching, of course, being subject to reality.
                        Now, if you excuse me, I have some Charger memories to suppress.
                        The Wasted Decade is done.
                        Build Back Better.

                        Comment

                        • Formula 21
                          The Future is Now
                          • Jun 2013
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                          • Republic of San Diego
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                          I wouldn't be happy if they turned Herbert into Alex Smith that’s for sure.
                          Now, if you excuse me, I have some Charger memories to suppress.
                          The Wasted Decade is done.
                          Build Back Better.

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