Welcome Josh Palmer, WR, Tennessee (Pick #77)

[DragonIce]

Depends if you're talking about the book or the movie.

in the book he kills Saruman, and then is shot by a hobbit archer I believe.

Any friend of Tolkein is a friend of mine. Read the books twice and watched the series three or four times over. Bought Part I & II of extended. But not III, not yet. A sleep disorder (and age) eats at my memory.

The movie scene shows WormTongue being generously spared at Rohan, and merely kicked out...and down many stone steps of Rohan.

Was he treated justly at Rohan? It seems from my view The Tongue

[dmac_bolt]

Let's be perfectly clear about that. In 2017, Alex Smith led the NFL in QB rating with KC, which just goes to show what kind of difference Reid, a strong OL and KC's top notch skill players can make in terms of a QB's results.

Before Mahomes played a down in 2018, I believed that Smith's 2017 QB rating, which led the league, would not bested by the QB rating of Mahomes as a first year starter.

I based this view on the belief that Mahomes would likely not have as high of a completion percentage as Smith and would likely throw twice as many INTs. Completion percentage and INTs are two of the four QB rating components.

Let me once again point out that the two components of the QB rating formula that I commented on, I got exactly right. Mahomes did throw twice as many INTs and his completion percentage was lower.

But what I did not anticipate (as neither I nor anyone not on KC's team could have) was that Reid would break out a new offense tailored to Mahomes' strengths and would so well design his system that Mahomes had a statistical explosion in TDs early in the season while defenses tried to figure out what KC was doing and Mahomes had a strong number in yards per attempt as well.

My analysis was 100% exactly correct as far as it went, but my ultimate conclusion ended being wrong because the other two components of the QB rating formula were so high for Mahomes that it more than offset the two QB rating categories that I got exactly right, which, again, were the only two on which I commented.

Again, the ultimate passer rating conclusion was wrong, but my statistical projections were very, very accurate. So, I actually think I did a great a job of nailing the statistical categories that I predicted.

You should focus longer on your conclusion and less on your lengthy self-flattering prologue. The key takeaway is your analytical model was fatally flawed, causing your self-described astute analysis to result in a completely incorrect prediction.

Seriously, just think it over for a bit.

[powderblueboy]

It's late, and I'm fading. Will my BoltUp brothers permit me an off-topic question...

Remember that character WormTongue from Tolkein's Lord of the Rings? The guy who seduced all of Rohan with deceitful words? I'm fuzzy on what became of him at the end?

It seems somewhat on-topic.

Yes, he's posting on one of the Charger forums. Goes by the name of Chargerfreak.
His less adept brother posts here.

[Boltjolt]

Kind of like Mahomes being overrated and Alex Smith being the better option?

You ever accepted being wrong about that one now that Smith has retired?

Chain never admits when he is wrong. Thats the attorney in him. I think they are schooled to never admit they are wrong lol.

What Chain is not is a football coach. To keep saying Palmer was a bad pick and isnt any good is short sighted. It is KJ Hill that id prefer Johnson over, NOT Palmer. Palmer is a keeper.

If we really want a return man that just catches the ball, that is aiming low imo. Trade for the Dolphins WR Jakeem Grant who is actually a good return man and cut KJ or put him on the PS.

[richpjr]

It is KJ Hill that id prefer Johnson over, NOT Palmer. Palmer is a keeper.

The problem is that we need someone who can catch a punt and evidently Hill is the only WR we have (or had) that can do it. Johnson was never competing with Palmer (or Hill), he was competing with Guyton for the speed WR role and Guyton is a better overall WR than Johnson is. Now whether we should have kept him as our #6 WR instead of one of the QBs or a guy like Pipkins is a different story.

I think most of us will be pretty happy with what we see from Palmer this year.

[Guest]

A bad cause requires many words.

That is not necessarily true at all. Written proofs can be complex in many fields.

[Guest]

Chain never admits when he is wrong. Thats the attorney in him. I think they are schooled to never admit they are wrong lol.

What Chain is not is a football coach. To keep saying Palmer was a bad pick and isnt any good is short sighted. It is KJ Hill that id prefer Johnson over, NOT Palmer. Palmer is a keeper.

If we really want a return man that just catches the ball, that is aiming low imo. Trade for the Dolphins WR Jakeem Grant who is actually a good return man and cut KJ or put him on the PS.

Hear me on this. I was dead wrong about Bosa. I hated the pick. I was wrong about my conclusion regarding Mahomes' passer rating in 2018 versus Alex Smith's in 2017. I want to be wrong about Palmer. I think I pretty much always admit when I am wrong. However, in presenting instances like with Mahomes in 2018 where I was both right and wrong, I think it is okay to discuss both and not let others suggest that I was somehow only completely wrong.

I understand that others put Palmer over Johnson, including our coaching staff. I disagree and that is okay. If Palmer is better than Johnson and a good contributor in the deep passing game, I will be ecstatic to be so wrong about him and will happily hear many on this forum giving me the business about it. That would be great.

I think almost everyone agrees that Johnson should have been kept over Hill. If we were going to keep Hill as our dedicated PR, we should have kept 6 WRs (which is a normal allotment) and kept Johnson as one of the 6.

I see a lot of dead weight on the roster right now and we all (at least all of us who were Chargers fans at the time) saw that Johnson did a good job for us last year, so that is a little difficult to stomach.

[Topcat]

It seems somewhat on-topic.

Yes, he's posting on one of the Charger forums. Goes by the name of Chargerfreak.
His less adept brother posts here.

Ah yes, good old Freak from the other forum. The one who proclaimed himself "Emperor," demanded that we all bow to him, and who infamously said, "there is no way in Hades the Chargers draft Derwin James."

[Boltjolt]

Ah yes, good old Freak from the other forum. The one who proclaimed himself "Emperor," demanded that we all bow to him, and who infamously said, "there is no way in Hades the Chargers draft Derwin James."

Yep, that clown. Glad he chose to stay there where he fits better lol.

[Guest]

You should focus longer on your conclusion and less on your lengthy self-flattering prologue. The key takeaway is your analytical model was fatally flawed, causing your self-described astute analysis to result in a completely incorrect prediction.

Seriously, just think it over for a bit.

Because I did not predict that a first year starter would throw 50 TD passes (top 2 number all time) or have a top seven single season yards per attempt figure among all QBs for the entire decade?! I think I will go ahead and give myself a pass on not making that prediction. Mahomes' performance in those categories were statistical outliers to say the least. Mahomes has not come close to duplicating that performance in either category since 2018. In 2019, Mahomes had only just over half as many TDs.

My approach was pretty sound. If there are four categories in the passer rating formula and you strongly suspect that one QB will do significantly worse than the other in two of the categories, including twice as bad in one category, it just might be reasonable to conclude that the second QB is not likely to make up the difference in the other two categories. My conclusion blew up when I ran into statistical outliers in both of the other two categories.

In fact, even if you kept the statistical outlier in YPA and just gave Mahomes his TD average of 32 from 2019 and 2020 combined, a very healthy number for a first year starter, my conclusion about Smith's 2017 passer rating likely being better than Mahomes' 2018 passer rating would have held up. But the extreme statistical outliers killed me on the conclusion.

[Guest]

Yeah....nobody on the team, who watched the guy rocket throws all over the practice field for a year, would ever imagine that a dope like Reid would tailor an offense around his quarterback strengths. Inconceivable!

The point is that defenses had not seen the plays and initially struggled to defend against them. The number of passing TDs (50) on a team with Kareem Hunt, the league's reigning rushing leader at the time, was not anticipated.

[Panamamike]

Because I did not predict that a first year starter would throw 50 TD passes (top 2 number all time) or have a top seven single season yards per attempt figure among all QBs for the entire decade?! I think I will go ahead and give myself a pass on not making that prediction. Mahomes' performance in those categories were statistical outliers to say the least. Mahomes has not come close to duplicating that performance in either category since 2018. In 2019, Mahomes had only just over half as many TDs.

My approach was pretty sound. If there are four categories in the passer rating formula and you strongly suspect that one QB will do significantly worse than the other in two of the categories, including twice as bad in one category, it just might be reasonable to conclude that the second QB is not likely to make up the difference in the other two categories. My conclusion blew up when I ran into statistical outliers in both of the other two categories.

In fact, even if you kept the statistical outlier in YPA and just gave Mahomes his TD average of 32 from 2019 and 2020 combined, a very healthy number for a first year starter, my conclusion about Smith's 2017 passer rating likely being better than Mahomes' 2018 passer rating would have held up. But the extreme statistical outliers killed me on the conclusion.

There are five categories.... If you only used 4 your prediction model was inherently flawed to begin with, and thus your conclusion as to the reason why the passer ratings differed. You only get part marks once again.

https://www.pro-football-reference.c.../qb-rating.htm

Those categories make up the input for the calculation.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.spo...culated/%3famp


you can use that calculator to run your theories as to whether or not keeping one stat static ypa and modifying the touchdowns and compare them across years. Why make guesses when you can actually make calculations? I would do it myself but I I've had a long day .

And Smith had a fantastic year his last year starting it was by far the best year of his career. I always liked him and it was a damn shame what happened to him in Washington.