Welcome Josh Palmer, WR, Tennessee (Pick #77)

[dmac_bolt]

As far as the WR group goes, it is usually best to have a mix of guy with different skill sets. An offense is more than a bunch of plays in a playbook. It is about having options to attack what a defense will do to stop it. Being able to go deep and get yards and/or points really adds to an offense. But you can't necessarily live off it. Being too one dimensional is a problem, as the Raiders struggled with for years. Some fans and TV guys get "romantic", thinking they want tons of guys who fit their idea of what a prototype WR should be, but if you look at really strong position groups, they tend to have complimentary players.

The other thing to remember is that while some positions are hard to rotate (OL & QB), lots of teams have been able to mix in the quality snaps with as many good players as are available. Certainly, from a cap perspective, Williams and Allen will always get more snaps, but since we play 11 personnel (3 WR sets), there are still plenty of snaps at 3rd WR, as well as subbing in at #1 and 2 WR as well.

As far as what position groups we play, if Palmer and/or Guyton really step up, I think we will be seeing more and more 3 WR (11) vs 2 TE (21) and 2 RB (12) groups. While NFL defenses acknowledge that they need quality nickel and dime guys because of the predominance of 11 personnel, many teams still have a pretty big drop-off between their starters and their sub package guys. If the 3 WR gives us a big mismatch, then the O is going to lean more that way.

Another big factor in that mix will be how well the base 5 OL can protect Herbie. Extra TE is often just a 6th OL.

[Guest]

Telesco and company re-signed Mike Williams because he's a stud. I doubt at any point they said, "We need to re-sign Mike Williams because it's clear Joshua Palmer doesn't have what it takes to be a #1 or #2 receiver." Palmer's long-term status will be determined down the road. Luckily, unlike you, the coaching staff and front office will give him a chance to prove himself.

Maybe it was before your time (based upon your date of joining the forum), but on this forum around this time last year (before the 2021 season) there was all kinds of discussion about how Palmer would replace Williams after the 2021 season and that the team should not try to re-sign Williams.

I think the team absolutely did take stock of what it had and did not have at the WR position when deciding what to do with Mike Williams. Of course they made projections for their WRs both with and without Williams when making that decision.

You post as if there is something left to be determined about Palmer. Yet, there is no mystery here. There are no elite abilities to develop like there were with Vincent Jackson, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Tyrell Williams. Palmer "proving himself" gets us nowhere near those other four receivers I listed. If Palmer replaces either Williams or Allen, that is a downgrade. Downgrades should be avoided.

[Guest]

The part you seem to be forgetting was that Allen (when he was a rookie) is nothing like the Keenan Allen of today. His route running was good by college standards, but not by NFL standards. A couple of years later (and a lot of hard work) and Allen is much closer to the player we see today.

Palmer and Guyton have a lot of development to do. Personally, I think they are similar, with Palmer being somewhat better at this point. He is a big, athletic receiver who runs good routes by college standards, but needs to step up his technique and guile to take his route running to the NFL level, and further if he is going to be a top WR.

Neither Palmer or Guyton is where they need to be if they are going to be long term answers.

Allen always had the ability to set up and shake defenders quickly, even in 2013. And yes, he did get even better at that, but his natural ability was always elite in that respect. Even in early 2014, he made prime Legion of Boom Richard Sherman look absolutely silly.

Palmer is the polar opposite of that. While Palmer has legitimate average NFL WR speed (solid, not great), his moves are significantly below average. Of our top 4 WRs, he had the least average separation. NFL defenders did not need to respect his speed all that much or his moves at all and played against him with a smaller average cushion when compared to most of our other WRs. Palmer can improve that some and become low average to average in that area, but the natural ability in that area just is not there.

The problem with Palmer is that he just does not have any elite or even really plus traits upon which to build. With regard to each of our WRs, just ask, "How does he win?" I submit the answer is obvious with respect to Allen, Williams and Guyton and was obvious with Vincent Jackson and Tyrell Williams. How does Palmer win? That's the problem.

I agree that neither Palmer nor Guyton are long term answers as #1 or #2 WRs. I think Guyton is the best complementary #3 WR to Allen and Williams because he offers the deep speed that they do not, which creates more options for the offense.

Also, Palmer is really not that big. He is the same height as Guyton and Guyton outweighs him by two pounds, making Palmer the smallest of our top 4 WRs.

[equivocation]

https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/personnel-grouping-frequency.html

last year 61% of snaps were 11 personnel. 3rd WR is a starter.

[dmac_bolt]

If Chain was GM, we’d have Huntley trying to throw it deep to Tbilly. The prosecution rests its case.

[Guest]

Palmer has one trait all elite WRs possess: ability to create separation. It was huge in his college career and on display in his short game last season a lot, Can’t-Get-Off-The-Line Guyton should take lessons, it’ll help him keep his job.

Seriously, I have already posted that stat that shows that your statement is just dead, dead, dead wrong and completely the opposite of the true facts.

In point of fact, in 2021, Guyton was the best of our top four WRs (Allen, Williams, Guyton, Palmer) on average at gaining separation and Palmer tied for last of the four with Williams at gaining separation. Here is the stat for you:

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation

So, no, Palmer does not have that trait to create separation like you are claiming. In fact, it is his greatest weakness--that he does not get open and has poor moves when compared to most NFL WRs (which is why he does not get open despite having average NFL WR speed). Separation does not matter as much for Williams as it does for Palmer because he has a bigger body and has elite ability to make contested catches.

Honestly, I have no idea what games you have been watching, but the stats line up with the reality that I saw last year and that I pointed out going all the way back to when we first drafted Palmer. The problem was present even on his highlight videos and during his Senior Bowl practice reps.

[Guest]

If Chain was GM, we’d have Huntley trying to throw it deep to Tbilly. The prosecution rests its case.

Totally false. Herbert is the best QB in the NFL. Huntley or a player like Huntley has been discussed a potentially cheap upgrade at the backup QB position.

Johnson worked very well with Herbert, leading the entire NFL in 2020 at producing the highest QB rating among qualified receivers when targeted. My position was and is that he should have been kept. Keep in mind that Staley chose to keep K.J. Hill over Johnson when Hill literally did and does nothing better than Johnson. The stated reason for keeping Hill was special teams and Johnson, we all came to find out, does that better than Hill also. So, Staley made the wrong decision. That much is obvious, though the "my guy only needs to be better than K.J. Hill standard" is not exactly a difficult one to overcome.

I mean, for Pete's sake, we have produced highest passer rating when targeted in the whole league (Johnson) versus K.J. Hill. SMH....

[Guest]

https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/p...frequency.html

last year 61% of snaps were 11 personnel. 3rd WR is a starter.

Right, when I did the math, I got a slightly higher number. That is why it is so important for that #3 WR to be Guyton most of the time because his skillset is much more complementary to those of Allen and Williams than Palmer's is.

[Steve]

Allen always had the ability to set up and shake defenders quickly, even in 2013. And yes, he did get even better at that, but his natural ability was always elite in that respect. Even in early 2014, he made prime Legion of Boom Richard Sherman look absolutely silly.

Palmer is the polar opposite of that. While Palmer has legitimate average NFL WR speed (solid, not great), his moves are significantly below average. Of our top 4 WRs, he had the least average separation. NFL defenders did not need to respect his speed all that much or his moves at all and played against him with a smaller average cushion when compared to most of our other WRs. Palmer can improve that some and become low average to average in that area, but the natural ability in that area just is not there.

The problem with Palmer is that he just does not have any elite or even really plus traits upon which to build. With regard to each of our WRs, just ask, "How does he win?" I submit the answer is obvious with respect to Allen, Williams and Guyton and was obvious with Vincent Jackson and Tyrell Williams. How does Palmer win? That's the problem.

I agree that neither Palmer nor Guyton are long term answers as #1 or #2 WRs. I think Guyton is the best complementary #3 WR to Allen and Williams because he offers the deep speed that they do not, which creates more options for the offense.

Also, Palmer is really not that big. He is the same height as Guyton and Guyton outweighs him by two pounds, making Palmer the smallest of our top 4 WRs.

Allen did his best work as a rookie vs zone coverage. His ability to get open vs man coverage was inconsistent. He has good reps and bad, but that is inconsistent, and that is bad overall. However, his work with Gates and Floyd (and the coaches), he eventually developed into a complete WR.

We will just have to agree to disagree. Watching all 22 I don't see the same things. Palmer does a fine job of getting open and establishing positions to make the catch. Guyton may have moments where he separates, but a lot of times he is running right from one coverage player straight into another defender's area of responsibility. So, while he may be further away from the DB, that doesn't make him more open. Similarly, Herbert's ability to "throw" players open negates the need to need to be wide open. That is what makes NFL Franchise QB's worth what they are worth.

WR don't necessarily need elite measurables to become elite players. Look back at Steve Largent, Chad Johnson and many others. Jerry Rice, for example, had a 4.6 40 time coming out of college back in the day. However, he was a really good route runner (eventually) and played much faster than his straight-line speed, since he maintained his speed through his cuts. The NFL HOF is full of guys who may have lacked elite measurables. There is also just being on the same page as the QB, which is a vastly underrated part of playing WR.

Simply put, Palmer is going to win by his route running, body positioning, and catch radius. Plenty of good WR do that. Guys like Antonio Brown win in the same way, and they lack elite qualities, and for a while, he was the best WR in football. Receivers and QB have to have a lot of unspoken communication and understanding of playing together, which it seems like Palmer has with Herbert.

There have been plenty of smaller WR who have been elite productions. Remember the Smurfs, for the Washington Redskins in the early Redskins days. Antonio Brown is 5'10"185 lbs.

I never said anything about Guyton or Palmer being (or not being) #1 or #2 WR. If you go back and read the post, I said they can sub in and get some snaps in the #1 or #2 spots, giving Allen and/or Williams a breather. While individual stats for Allen and Williams may suffer somewhat by taking them off the field a bit more, if Palmer and Guyton can raise their game, they can be productive part of the rotation and mkae everyone better as a result, even if their stats are not as good.

[NoMoreChillies]

I just wanna see Guyton catch more bombs
I just wanna see Palmer catch more hot reads/ contested catches

Play each WR to their strengths

[Boltjolt]

Also, Palmer is really not that big. He is the same height as Guyton and Guyton outweighs him by two pounds, making Palmer the smallest of our top 4 WRs

These are the ridiculousness arguments we must endure lol.
Guyton outweighs him by 2 whole lbs you say? Therefore making Palmer not very big :facepalm1:.

Maybe before weigh ins this year Palmer should wait to take a dump til afterwards
or
perhaps he adds a little muscle and by golly catches Guytons extra girth of 2 lbs.

I think going below 180 lbs for a WR is getting in that small area. Ideally I like bigger than 180. Not anyone over 200 is a small WR imo.
TBilly was 197 when he was on our team.

[sonorajim]

Allen always had the ability to set up and shake defenders quickly, even in 2013. And yes, he did get even better at that, but his natural ability was always elite in that respect. Even in early 2014, he made prime Legion of Boom Richard Sherman look absolutely silly.

Palmer is the polar opposite of that. While Palmer has legitimate average NFL WR speed (solid, not great), his moves are significantly below average. Of our top 4 WRs, he had the least average separation. NFL defenders did not need to respect his speed all that much or his moves at all and played against him with a smaller average cushion when compared to most of our other WRs. Palmer can improve that some and become low average to average in that area, but the natural ability in that area just is not there.

The problem with Palmer is that he just does not have any elite or even really plus traits upon which to build. With regard to each of our WRs, just ask, "How does he win?" I submit the answer is obvious with respect to Allen, Williams and Guyton and was obvious with Vincent Jackson and Tyrell Williams. How does Palmer win? That's the problem.

I agree that neither Palmer nor Guyton are long term answers as #1 or #2 WRs. I think Guyton is the best complementary #3 WR to Allen and Williams because he offers the deep speed that they do not, which creates more options for the offense.

Also, Palmer is really not that big. He is the same height as Guyton and Guyton outweighs him by two pounds, making Palmer the smallest of our top 4 WRs.

3 guys 6-0 to 6-1, 210 - 212 smallest is an honorary title. The weight differences can change by the hour.