Welcome Josh Palmer, WR, Tennessee (Pick #77)

[powderblueboy]

I don't know if Guyton's YAC underperforms the NFL average, I'd have to see those numbers. But when you are catching a 60-yard bomb in the end zone delivered by Herb's rocket arm, there isn't going to be any YAC. We may never see Guyton's full potential because his targets are going to be limited with the Chargers because of all the weapons this offense has, unless there are injuries to receivers ahead of him. But I argue that for a #4 WR, Guyton is among the best if not that best at that level on the depth chart.

Guyton's 4.8 yards YAC minus his 3.4 yards separation equals 1.4 yards created on his own
It is at the bottom of the list for receivers which speaks to a lack of elusiveness post catch.
Lets call it the elusiveness metric.

Any receiver's YAC goes down catching a td pass; unfortunately, Guyton caught a mere 3.

I am starting to have my doubts about Guyton and need Chaincrusher to deliver an artful defense of this miserable stat to reassure me.

[Velo]

Guyton's 4.8 yards YAC minus his 3.4 yards separation equals 1.4 yards created on his own

Where are your sources?

[powderblueboy]

i

Where are your sources?

The same list chaincrusher provided us: next generation stats
https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/r...age-separation

The 'elusiveness metric' was my own concoction; its parameters being stats taken from that list.

I've commented ages ago on how Guyton is no threat after the catch:
my theory being that he is so happy to hold onto the ball, with his tiny hands, that he collapses in relief.

Now, i have some stats to back it up.

[SuperCharged]

i


I've commented ages ago on how Guyton is no threat after the catch:
my theory being that he is so happy to hold onto the ball, with his tiny hands, that he collapses in relief.

Now, i have some stats to back it up.

That is pretty much the way I see Guyton.

This pretty much says it all for me. You will not see Guyton back next year.

Jalen Guyton signed a 1 year, $965,000 contract with the Los Angeles Chargers, including an average annual salary of $965,000. In 2022, Guyton will earn a base salary of $965,000, while carrying a cap hit of $965,000. NFL contract specifics generally collected from verified reports.

[Velo]

The 'elusiveness metric' was my own concoction;

Uh huh, That's what I thought.

Slide to 13:35 on this vid, and tell me again Guyton is incapable of YAC. Guyton was an undrafted developmental project. He has developed nicely, he turned 25 last month and is just entering his prime. WRs who are No. 4 on the depth chart don't do what Guyton does. You keep wanting to compare to a No. 1 or No. 2 receiver. But he's a No. 4, and there isn't a better No. 4 WR in the league. That is why I say the Chargers have the deepest WR corps in the league.

[equivocation]

I love Guyton as a 4th WR, and he definitely brings a skill set to the team.

His game also has soke pretty strict limitations currently, and one of those is that on the whole, his contact balace and ability to break tackles is poor.

That 13:35 highlight is one of the ones I refer to when saying Guyton's best results are seam/post routes out of tight alignments or slot. That post/wheel combo on that snap in particular works with him because if teams press him the wheel route is wide open. That lets him get off the line and in the seam where he's dangerous.

He is better at spacing routes than breaking routes, and that's okay.

[powderblueboy]

I love Guyton as a 4th WR, and he definitely brings a skill set to the team.

His game also has soke pretty strict limitations currently, and one of those is that on the whole, his contact balace and ability to break tackles is poor.

That 13:35 highlight is one of the ones I refer to when saying Guyton's best results are seam/post routes out of tight alignments or slot. That post/wheel combo on that snap in particular works with him because if teams press him the wheel route is wide open. That lets him get off the line and in the seam where he's dangerous.

He is better at spacing routes than breaking routes, and that's okay.

i have no qualms with Guyton....i just happen to prefer Palmer.

[powderblueboy]

Uh huh, That's what I thought.

Slide to 13:35 on this vid, and tell me again Guyton is incapable of YAC. Guyton was an undrafted developmental project. He has developed nicely, he turned 25 last month and is just entering his prime. WRs who are No. 4 on the depth chart don't do what Guyton does. You keep wanting to compare to a No. 1 or No. 2 receiver. But he's a No. 4, and there isn't a better No. 4 WR in the league. That is why I say the Chargers have the deepest WR corps in the league.

Every receiver is capable of YAC;
Guyton is just less proficient than most.

I can show you an elusive iguana if there is enough tape.

[Guest]

The reason that the separation stat is incomplete and misleading has been posted already. Bad models lead to bad conclusions. But lets look deeper just at the data you rely on. You don’t account for the cushion stat that is right next to the separation stat. When we account for this stat, we find that Guyton actually LOST the most cushion initially given him by the defense and the reason for his increased separation is that defenses did not cover him as tightly as they don’t worry about his underneath route running ability (as he is sub-par there still).

Cush vs Sep
JP: 5.3 - 2.5 = 2.8
MW: 5.3 - 2.5 = 2.8
KA: 6 - 3.1 = 2.9
JG: 7 - 3.4 = 3.6

Did you really just post this? The above quoted post has to be the worst, mind numbingly lame post I have read this year and there have been some doozies. But this one takes the prize.

The amount of separation is all that matters. You get that separation means getting open, don't you? And the more open a WR is, the better that is for the offense, WR and QB, right?

Yes, defenders make the wise choice to give Guyton extra cushion because of his speed. That is part of how he creates separation and why he is useful as a WR. They cover Guyton lightly underneath (give him more cushion) because they do not want their behinds kicked on 50+ yard TD passes. It has nothing to do with any sort of assessment that Guyton does not run good patterns underneath. That is ridiculous. The reality is that they realize that they have their hands full with preventing the big play. Duh.

You see, not fast WRs with poor moves that lack extreme plus size and are not great when it comes to contested catches (like Palmer) are not that much of an asset when they have very little separation. It is not he same thing as throwing to Williams when he has no separation.

Also, the fact that defenders give Palmer next to zero respect despite his average 4.5 40 time is telling. As I have stated, his moves are below average in sharp contrast to the slower Allen, who is given a larger cushion because he has far superior moves compared to Palmer.

And now that you have decided to mention cushion, let me point out that the stat refutes another myth about Guyton that he "cannot get off of the line scrimmage". Absent somebody posting some stats on that, I call BS on that assertion. Can you see how that assertion does not fit with Guyton being given a huge average cushion by defenders?

[Velo]

Every receiver is capable of YAC;
Guyton is just less proficient than most.

I can show you an elusive iguana if there is enough tape.

He's a No. 4 option, No. 5, when you take into account Ekeler, who is 3rd in team receiving yardage. Plus, Guyton, again, is/was a UDFA developmental project. He only got 48 targets last season. He caught 31 of those for a 65% completion percentage. If there is another WR who is a team's 4th or 5th guy who is better than Guyton, please name him. Guyton stood out in OTAs this year and Staley praised him. He just turned 25, and his entering his prime. If there are no injuries to those on the depth chart ahead of him, his skills will be underutilized, and his receiving production may not go up much. It's a nice problem to have - too much talent. But if there are injuries, having a depth guy as good as Guyton, who is going into his 3rd season with Herbert, would prevent the offense from taking a step back because Guyton is primed and ready to step up. Championship teams have good depth, and Guyton provides that for Herbert and the receiving corps. There is one other thing that guarantees Guyton a roster spot - special teams. He is really starting to stand out in that capacity too. Find what Staley said about Guyton's special teams work at OTAs earlier this year.

[Guest]

i

The same list chaincrusher provided us: next generation stats
https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/r...age-separation

The 'elusiveness metric' was my own concoction; its parameters being stats taken from that list.

I've commented ages ago on how Guyton is no threat after the catch:
my theory being that he is so happy to hold onto the ball, with his tiny hands, that he collapses in relief.

Now, i have some stats to back it up.

Yards after the catch is very flukish stat. Still, Guyton was second among our WRs in that stat to Mike Williams.

For example, Williams had the best yards after the catch per reception numbers among our WRs. The reason for this was that he had two untouched 30+ yard run after the catch TDs (against CLE and PIT) baked into his stats, which, by themselves added almost a full yard to Williams' average yards after the catch per reception. Guyton had no similar plays as he caught his long passes already in the end zone.

I think this flukish nature of yards after the catch is pretty clear when one considers the subject. For example, a WR is not going to produce much yards after the catch if he is going to the ground to make the catch or if he is headed out of bounds on the catch. If the WR goes to the ball, his momentum may take him toward the line of scrimmage before he even begins to try to run with the ball. His momentum may take him into the original defender or another defender. The WR may need to leap top catch the ball. The throw may make the WR change his direction and cause him to lose momentum. A lot depends on how the reception is made and where the defenders are.

Even still, as noted above, Guyton was second among our top 4 WRs and, of course, Palmer was last. And if you use your created stat, which I think has no value, then Palmer scores 0.5 yards created after the catch, which would be more than twice as bad as the deficiency you are attributing to Guyton.

However, Guyton did lead our top 4 WRs in credited broken tackles per reception and his rate was more than twice that of the next highest rate for one of our top 4 WRs. Still, the number of broken tackles credited to all of our top 4 WRs was very small. (Guyton tied Williams for best among the 4 with 2, but did so on fewer than half of the receptions that Williams had.)

If you want to see Guyton's contact balance, I would recommend looking at Herbert's 2020 highlights for one of the games against DEN and the 2021 game against CIN. He is more difficult to bring down that one might think and he has shown this on several occasions.

Also, his hand size is listed at 9.25", not huge, but certainly not tiny.(39th percentile for NFL WRs per mockdraftable.com).

[Guest]

That is pretty much the way I see Guyton.

This pretty much says it all for me. You will not see Guyton back next year.

Jalen Guyton signed a 1 year, $965,000 contract with the Los Angeles Chargers, including an average annual salary of $965,000. In 2022, Guyton will earn a base salary of $965,000, while carrying a cap hit of $965,000. NFL contract specifics generally collected from verified reports.

Guyton was an exclusive right free agent this year. The team presented the offer they were required to give Guyton, which prevented him from negotiating with other teams. They were not going to overpay for a WR3-4 when they did not have to do so.

Since the team has no other NFL caliber deep speed threats at WR, I think they will continue to re-sign Guyton until they acquire one or more better deep speed options.

My understanding is that Guyton will be a restricted free agent next year. I could easily see the team placing a right-of-first-refusal tender on Guyton, which would pay him something along the lines of $2.433M+ for 2023 and allow the team to match any offer sheet signed by Guyton from another team, but with no draft pick compensation if they do not match and he leaves.

That way, a team is prevented from stealing Guyton without us having a chance to prevent that from happening, but we are under no obligation to match an offer that is too high (say somebody goes crazy and offers him $7M per season for example). The real test would happen when a team comes along and offers him something reasonable that is just outside the range of the tender, say $3M. Would we match or let him go in that situation? Absent a legitimate deep speed option, I would match at $3M.