Welcome Josh Palmer, WR, Tennessee (Pick #77)

[DerwinBosa]

I’m just glad we don’t have any WRs that run sub-4.6 40s. I mean what would we do if we had a slow WR like Cooper Kupp?

Months ago I mentioned what goes through my mind whenever I read your posts. This one in Dan Fouts' voice had me laughing out loud more than ever.

Keep it up, please.

[powderblueboy]

Yards after the catch is very flukish stat. Still, Guyton was second among our WRs in that stat to Mike Williams.

For example, Williams had the best yards after the catch per reception numbers among our WRs. The reason for this was that he had two untouched 30+ yard run after the catch TDs (against CLE and PIT) baked into his stats, which, by themselves added almost a full yard to Williams' average yards after the catch per reception. Guyton had no similar plays as he caught his long passes already in the end zone.

I think this flukish nature of yards after the catch is pretty clear when one considers the subject. For example, a WR is not going to produce much yards after the catch if he is going to the ground to make the catch or if he is headed out of bounds on the catch. If the WR goes to the ball, his momentum may take him toward the line of scrimmage before he even begins to try to run with the ball. His momentum may take him into the original defender or another defender. The WR may need to leap top catch the ball. The throw may make the WR change his direction and cause him to lose momentum. A lot depends on how the reception is made and where the defenders are.

Even still, as noted above, Guyton was second among our top 4 WRs and, of course, Palmer was last. And if you use your created stat, which I think has no value, then Palmer scores 0.5 yards created after the catch, which would be more than twice as bad as the deficiency you are attributing to Guyton.

However, Guyton did lead our top 4 WRs in credited broken tackles per reception and his rate was more than twice that of the next highest rate for one of our top 4 WRs. Still, the number of broken tackles credited to all of our top 4 WRs was very small. (Guyton tied Williams for best among the 4 with 2, but did so on fewer than half of the receptions that Williams had.)

If you want to see Guyton's contact balance, I would recommend looking at Herbert's 2020 highlights for one of the games against DEN and the 2021 game against CIN. He is more difficult to bring down that one might think and he has shown this on several occasions.

Also, his hand size is listed at 9.25", not huge, but certainly not tiny.(39th percentile for NFL WRs per mockdraftable.com).

Flukish?

Your criteria has a collection of slugs in its top 5:

Rondale Moore, Byron Pringle, Mecole Hardman, Braxton Berrios, Cole Beasley

My top 5 at least has a few studs:

Jamar Chase, Rondale Moore, Mecole Hardman, Chris Godwin, Deonte Harris ....

along with a few slobs from your list.

Quite frankly, the NGS separation rankings is the very definition of flukish......Jamar Chase is near the bottom.


Tyreek Hills numbers alone should make one question the entire thing.

[Velo]

You fail miserably to realize that Keenan Allen got those opportunities in 2013 because the top two receivers (Danario Alexander and Malcom Floyd) got injured. Joshua Palmer caught 33 passes for 353 yards and four touchdowns with two Pro Bowl-caliber receivers ahead of him. Who knows what he would have done if Allen and Mike Williams went down for the season? I guess you do, since you've already determined that Palmer won't amount to anything.

When Palmer had to step up in place of KA when KA was on the COVID list, Palmer did a good job.

[richpjr]

Popper's thoughts on Palmer:

The Chargers did not make any significant additions to their wide receiver room this offseason, and I think a big part of that was their belief in Palmer, a 2021 third-round pick. On top of solid hands and sharp route-running, Palmer has an outstanding work ethic. He is regularly the last player on the practice field. He throws with Herbert after practice more than any other receiver on the roster. He had a commendable rookie season, but I see him making a big jump in his second year.

“He’s been much more confident,” Herbert said in the spring. “This year, it’s a different Josh Palmer out there and he knows exactly what he’s doing.”

I expect Palmer to distance himself as the clear third wide receiver during camp.

[Duck of Death]

I think someone else alluded to this - but the problem with the ‘average separation’ metric is that it cannot account for how a given receiver was deployed (downfield threat vs underneath), nor the type of coverage he may have typically faced. Some cases in point - Ja’marr Chase, Devonta Smith, & Tee Higgins all had lower avg separation numbers than Palmer (all 2.3 vs 2.5 for JP). No one is claiming that JP is a better separator than the aforementioned.

As for elite traits, well wasn’t Cooper Kupp taken in the 3rd round because he didn’t appear to have any elite traits? I believe Walter Football stated that he was a “jack of all traits, but master of none.” And no, I don’t think JP is the next Kupp, but I am very optimistic about his future. Ditto for Guyton.

[Velo]

Popper's thoughts on Palmer:

That's why I say the Chargers have the deepest WR corps in the league - with Palmer and Guyton 3-4 on the depth chart, it doesn't get any better.

[equivocation]

at just under a mill JG is a steal and no-brainer to keep on the roster. even after the RFA tender and he gets 2.5m I'd still keep him on the roster unless someone shows up from the undrafted pool this year or next that shows more.

No one is talking about cutting Guyton that I can see. I think he's made a niche for himself in the NFL.

[Lefty2SLO]

I think someone else alluded to this - but the problem with the ‘average separation’ metric is that it cannot account for how a given receiver was deployed (downfield threat vs underneath), nor the type of coverage he may have typically faced. Some cases in point - Ja’marr Chase, Devonta Smith, & Tee Higgins all had lower avg separation numbers than Palmer (all 2.3 vs 2.5 for JP). No one is claiming that JP is a better separator than the aforementioned.

As for elite traits, well wasn’t Cooper Kupp taken in the 3rd round because he didn’t appear to have any elite traits? I believe Walter Football stated that he was a “jack of all traits, but master of none.” And no, I don’t think JP is the next Kupp, but I am very optimistic about his future. Ditto for Guyton.

I think as fans we 'metric' and 'stat' ourselves to death. At the end of the day does the player in question do his job well and enhance the team's ability to win games? That's really ALL that matters - the rest is just opinions. Boy oh boy we REALLY need training camp to begin in earnest!!!!!

JG and JP have different jobs to do in this offense. We really should have another developmental speed burning WR on the roster / PS. I believe that Palmer can provide adequate replacement value (NOT matching - adequate) for KA or Mike Williams should either miss a game or 2, but we don't have a replacement for JG on the roster. CC is right about that - we don't have another 4.3 guy to take the top off if JG goes down.

[equivocation]

That's why I say the Chargers have the deepest WR corps in the league - with Palmer and Guyton 3-4 on the depth chart, it doesn't get any better.

There was a stretch of games in the middle of the season where Williams was playing injured and neither Guyton nor Palmer really stepped up. In particular I'm looking at the NE and BAL games where the defense really roughed Guyton up at the line and neutralized him. Games where Guyton could get a clean release (NYG, CIN) or where Palmer started improving it really had a positive impact on how open the offense was. Those NYG and CIN games were also when Guyton got more slot snaps (I know, repeating myself)

So I can see that trend continuing. I can see Lombardi doing a better job putting Guyton in position to succeed. But I'd have to actually see it first. Those BAL and NE games were ugly for our WR group.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/3932430/year/2021

[Lefty2SLO]

There was a stretch of games in the middle of the season where Williams was playing injured and neither Guyton nor Palmer really stepped up. In particular I'm looking at the NE and BAL games where the defense really roughed Guyton up at the line and neutralized him. Games where Guyton could get a clean release (NYG, CIN) or where Palmer started improving it really had a positive impact on how open the offense was. Those NYG and CIN games were also when Guyton got more slot snaps (I know, repeating myself)

So I can see that trend continuing. I can see Lombardi doing a better job putting Guyton in position to succeed. But I'd have to actually see it first. Those BAL and NE games were ugly for our WR group.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/game...2430/year/2021

BAL and NE also had better defenses and very very good defensive coaching . . . . If we lose our top 2 receivers the offense will NOT be the same, no matter how good 3 & 4 are. Same with every team in the league. I do agree with Velo - however you rate them JP and JG are better 3 / 4 receivers than anyone else's in the league I can think of offhand.

[Steve]

I think as fans we 'metric' and 'stat' ourselves to death. At the end of the day does the player in question do his job well and enhance the team's ability to win games? That's really ALL that matters - the rest is just opinions. Boy oh boy we REALLY need training camp to begin in earnest!!!!!

JG and JP have different jobs to do in this offense. We really should have another developmental speed burning WR on the roster / PS. I believe that Palmer can provide adequate replacement value (NOT matching - adequate) for KA or Mike Williams should either miss a game or 2, but we don't have a replacement for JG on the roster. CC is right about that - we don't have another 4.3 guy to take the top off if JG goes down.

Agree with the 1st point. And if either Williams or Allen goes down, then there is the depth thing.

As far as having another speed guy in the O, that will probably happen at some point. However, it is not just speed guys who can get deep. Mike Williams doesn't have a great 40 time, but he is a deep threat. A lot of long-legged, deep strider types have been. For us, Floyd, VJ and Williams are all good examples, but I know I am forgetting some. Allen is also more of a route runner type, but he has gotten a pretty fair share of big plays over the top, and I wouldn't consider him one of the long-legged types either. Point is, while speed is great to have, it is not the only way to spread a defense out, which is the real goal.

In time, like next season, I wouldn't be surprised if JG, even if he has a big season moves on. Mostly, that is because we are $13 mill over next season's cap. While I am not suggesting that we can't get under the cap and find enough money to sign our rookies, with the money we have tied up in Allen and Williams, and Palmer being a fairly high pick, JG might have to move on if he needs a really big check, opening up a roster spot for a speed guy.

The biggest problem is that with Hill being so popular among fans and coaches, I think it is going to be tough to find a decent speed guy. THere are a lot of those speed guys who can't play worth a damn, and I think teams are reaching for WR with any amount of speed. I'm not against going for one, but you have to be careful and not leave roster holes reaching for guys.

[equivocation]

BAL and NE also had better defenses and very very good defensive coaching . . . . If we lose our top 2 receivers the offense will NOT be the same, no matter how good 3 & 4 are. Same with every team in the league. I do agree with Velo - however you rate them JP and JG are better 3 / 4 receivers than anyone else's in the league I can think of offhand.

Allen was 100% and Williams was injured but playing. We weren't missing the top 2 WRs.

These are the types of defenses we need to beat to win a championship.