Welcome Josh Palmer, WR, Tennessee (Pick #77)

[Bearded14YourPleasure]

The reason why the lack of speed/separation matters is that without deep speed on the field, defenses can squat on us (move their defenders closer to the line of scrimmage with impunity). This happened in 2019 when our speed receiver (Tyrell Williams) left for Oakland and we did not have Guyton and Johnson playing for us like we did last year. We need players getting reps that can stretch the field. Taking reps from Guyton and Johnson is not a good thing. Having a backup for Williams is fine. But I do not care for Allen, Williams and Palmer on the field at the same time in a 3 WR set.

Are you forgetting Williams is a top 3 WR in terms of yards per catch over the last 2-3 years? I would love for teams to lower coverages with those three on the field and watch MW stride past them over and over and over. You don’t need to run a sub 4.3 to get open deep. If it was all about speed then guys like Travis Benjamin and John Ross would be superstars.

[Bolt-O]

Nice Senior Bowl practice reps. I hope it translates to the pros, and he becomes the 'steal of the draft', like Keenan Allen.

[Formula 21]

.1 second in the 40 equates to about 1 yard extra distance over 40 yards. Sure that's significant, but it doesn’t account for receivers running 5 yards or more deeper than his defender. Smarts, slipperyness, route running, defense mistakes, body positioning, elevating and adjusting to the ball all count as much or more than pure speed. Don’t forget about hands and the ability to win the ball in the air. You win with the tools god gave you and you work to develop. .1 extra speed is just a small part of the equation.

[like54ninjas]

.1 second in the 40 equates to about 1 yard extra distance over 40 yards. Sure that's significant, but it doesn’t account for receivers running 5 yards or more deeper than his defender. Smarts, slipperyness, route running, defense mistakes, body positioning, elevating and adjusting to the ball all count as much or more than pure speed. Don’t forget about hands and the ability to win the ball in the air. You win with the tools god gave you and you work to develop. .1 extra speed is just a small part of the equation.

You mean 0.01 seconds?
1 full second (depending on speed of athletes) in the forty would translate to 10+ yards.

[Guest]

You better not watch many games this season. You’ll get depressed seeing those 3 on the field together often.

If so, Herbert's INT rate is virtually guaranteed to increase.

[Formula 21]

You mean 0.01 seconds?
1 full second (depending on speed of athletes) in the forty would translate to 10+ yards.

Take .1 of that. .1 seconds translates to 1 yard. 4.4 versus 4.5

[SuperCharged]

Are you forgetting Williams is a top 3 WR in terms of yards per catch over the last 2-3 years? I would love for teams to lower coverages with those three on the field and watch MW stride past them over and over and over. You don’t need to run a sub 4.3 to get open deep. If it was all about speed then guys like Travis Benjamin and John Ross would be superstars.

I think that is a bit irrelevant. YPC is a good stat, but not when the player is catching only 3 to 4 balls a game. MW has never lived up to his 1 round pick. He's had a couple decent games against the Chiefs.

He simply hasn't lived up to the 7th overall pick. He will be gone when his contract is up.

[Guest]

Palmer 1v1 at SeniorBowl

So, there are a few things to notice right away.

His reportedly great hands are not all that great. They are not bad, but not great. There was one drop and one drop/defensive hack (looked like it was going to be dropped, but was also hacked at).

He had all kinds of trouble gaining separation on some of the reps, especially against press coverage. He actually looked tight and unathletic, not fluid at all with one exception discussed below. Lots of chopped steps to try to set up time consuming moves. I doubt he has time to do that kind of stationary tire drill during NFL game action. He was thrown open on a couple of reps.

He was not impressive in the air, so I do not get where people are coming from when they suggest that that is a strength for him. There were limited reps, but he is clearly nowhere close to being in the league of Mike Williams on ability to make plays in the air. No explosion at all and that is confirmed when double checking and seeing that his vertical leap was only 34".

Some of the DBs playing against him had no clue. One guy lined up in the next county to defend him, so he caught an uncontested short pass over the middle. I would be shocked if any WR failed to make that catch.

The two impressive plays he had included a nice catch when he was thrown open and when he stuck his leg in the ground on the post pattern to gain real separation. That latter move was a quality move.

Overall, he looks like a deep reserve, the kind of player that could be drafted later in the draft than round 3 or, honestly, signed as a street free agent.

Again, the video actually caused me to like the pick even less as it makes me believe that the pick was more of a reach than the slight reach I originally thought it was.

[Silversurfer]

A 3rd round special teams body, how would this guy beat out Guyten and Johnson remains to be seen.

[like54ninjas]

So, there are a few things to notice right away.

His reportedly great hands are not all that great. They are not bad, but not great. There was one drop and one drop/defensive hack (looked like it was going to be dropped, but was also hacked at).

He had all kinds of trouble gaining separation on some of the reps, especially against press coverage. He actually looked tight and unathletic, not fluid at all with one exception discussed below. Lots of chopped steps to try to set up time consuming moves. I doubt he has time to do that kind of stationary tire drill during NFL game action. He was thrown open on a couple of reps.

He was not impressive in the air, so I do not get where people are coming from when they suggest that that is a strength for him. There were limited reps, but he is clearly nowhere close to being in the league of Mike Williams on ability to make plays in the air. No explosion at all and that is confirmed when double checking and seeing that his vertical leap was only 34".

Some of the DBs playing against him had no clue. One guy lined up in the next county to defend him, so he caught an uncontested short pass over the middle. I would be shocked if any WR failed to make that catch.

The two impressive plays he had included a nice catch when he was thrown open and when he stuck his leg in the ground on the post pattern to gain real separation. That latter move was a quality move.

Overall, he looks like a deep reserve, the kind of player that could be drafted later in the draft than round 3 or, honestly, signed as a street free agent.

Again, the video actually caused me to like the pick even less as it makes me believe that the pick was more of a reach than the slight reach I originally thought it was.

Good thing you’re not a scout, in the personnel department, or have anything to do with scheme design/play calling.
I guess we all have differing opinions at times. If nothing else, you stand with conviction even when incorrect.

[Guest]

Are you forgetting Williams is a top 3 WR in terms of yards per catch over the last 2-3 years? I would love for teams to lower coverages with those three on the field and watch MW stride past them over and over and over. You don’t need to run a sub 4.3 to get open deep. If it was all about speed then guys like Travis Benjamin and John Ross would be superstars.

Williams had his highest YPC, but lowest catch per target season in 2019. Williams left and Benjamin was injured. Teams squatted on us, daring Rivers to throw more deep balls. He did with mixed results that included his third worst passer rating as a starter and 20 INTs along with the aforementioned lowest catch per target rate for Williams as a full time player.

That is what you get when defenses do not fear the long pass as much.

The thing that made the offense of any value at all last year was its big play explosive nature at times, which also helped Allen and Williams by taking pressure off of them. Players like Johnson and Guyton played a critical role for us. Reducing their reps in 3 WR sets is a step in the wrong direction, just as it was when we lost Tyrell Williams.

The two things that would have made sense would have been to get a fast WR that was better at all WR skills when compared to Johnson and Guyton or an even faster version of Johnson and Guyton.

I agree 100% with those that say that speed is not everything. Allen and Williams are perfect examples of that. I just do not agree with pairing non-speed with only non-speed as it tends to reduce the options toward which a defense has to give serious attention.

[Guest]

Good thing you’re not a scout, in the personnel department, or have anything to do with scheme design/play calling.
I guess we all have differing opinions at times. If nothing else, you stand with conviction even when incorrect.

Here are a few questions for you.

Do you admit all of the following (shown clearly in the video)?

1. He had 1 or more dropped passes in a fairly limited number of reps shown.
2. He demonstrated no discernable elite or even good aerial talent in the video, including no leaping explosion (also confirmed by his 32nd percentile vertical leap).
3. Some of his moves were very slow (such as when he was chopping steps to try to set up a cut at times).
4. He had trouble gaining quick separation on multiple plays.
5. He demonstrated no explosiveness in terms of top end speed.

If so, then what are we even talking about? That combination of observations does not suggest good value at 3/77.

What exactly did you see that you thought was good on the video?

As for my takes, two days ago, in another thread, I identified Chicago and Houston as having had the best and worst drafts, respectively. In still another thread, a poster posted yesterday the grades given teams by numerous (like 20) pundits grouped together and averaged to see where the teams should be ranked in terms of their draft. The result--Chicago was first and Houston was last. So you may wish to abandon the questionable narrative that suggests that I am not seeing it when it comes to assessing how the teams did with their drafts.