Welcome Josh Palmer, WR, Tennessee (Pick #77)

[Guest]

I’m just baffled by Chain’s negativity about Palmer if those #s reflect his expectations. The projections look pretty damn good to me.

Okay, so you agree that Guyton "was pretty damn good" last year. Great, glad to hear it. I did not know that you were so high on Guyton. He had 511 yards on fewer than 60 targets last year--better than what I projected for Palmer.

So, if his numbers were great, why are we f*cking around with that by trying to force feed Palmer the ball when we already have a great #3 WR in Guyton?

Why all the negativity about Guyton, a player that has actually already proven that level of production?

[Guest]

You’re right in that Palmer didn’t do anything than just stay in the back of the end zone, however in that situation that’s the exact right thing to do. He’s in the back corner of the end zone to the side that Stick is running too, what is he supposed to do run away from the QB and make him throw back across his body and the width of the field while running? Worst case scenario Stick throws a jump ball there to give Palmer a chance to make a play and it goes out the back of the end zone. Is it a spectacular play by Palmer? No. Is it the correct play? Absolutely. Some of the praise is over the top for sure but that’s always the case in preseason, it’s all about getting everyone hyped up for the return of football.

I am not suggesting that the WR was wrong for staying in the back of the end zone as every other NFL WR would have done. I am just not giving him any credit for running a route and just standing there while the defender runs away from him, leaving him wide open. Every NFL WR should make that catch--without exception.

Palmer has not done much of anything this preseason to warrant the hype he has received. No spectacular plays and no great production. Tonight, he has been covered and also has a drop. 3 receptions for 26 yards with just over 10 minutes to go. Johnson has looked better--much faster, quicker, more open and more dangerous after the reception.

And in case anyone is keeping track, Johnson was an UDFA, not a third round pick.

[Guest]

Thats.a shame. Palmer has definite limits to his skill set, primarily burst and top speed. But he’s running in a man’s body, he’s not going to get pushed around by DBs, his routes are pretty crisp for a rookie, and he’s got a wide catch radius with vacuum paws for hands. He has a use, though at #4 on the depth chart with likelihood some situations call for #5 with speed, he’s not going to get the chances to hit 80 Rec or 1000 yards. Unless Dub gets hurt for an extended duration, which i hope doesn’t happen. I don’t expect Lance Alworth, so i won’t be as disappointed.

I remember TW took 3 years to learn how to go up and grab that ball and not let defenders just swipe away from him. I remember it took VJ 3 years to emerge as a dominate beast that then quickly commanded a huge FA 2nd deal and left. Palmer is ahead of schedule, the future is unknown.

Palmer simply does not have the upside of Tyrell Williams or VJ. Those players were just bigger, faster, better athletes than Palmer. Also, those players were more raw than Palmer at this point. Palmer will get some better, but not like Williams and VJ. The team cannot develop talent that is not there.

[HerbieFullyLoaded]

Palmer simply does not have the upside of Tyrell Williams or VJ. Those players were just bigger, faster, better athletes than Palmer. Also, those players were more raw than Palmer at this point. Palmer will get some better, but not like Williams and VJ. The team cannot develop talent that is not there.

His size and workout numbers are all extremely similar to CeeDee Lamb and people seem pretty high on that guy's upside. They play a similar game, Palmer is already a better route runner though.

[like54ninjas]

Crusher draws another into his web…….lol

[richpjr]

Crusher draws another into his web…….lol

No kidding. We get it, he hated the pick and will go to great lengths to make sure everyone knows it. Over and over again.

[equivocation]

He's the boulder and we're all Sisyphus. Boulders don't tire.

[RTPbolt]

Its obvious Palmer isnt Guyten and they have different skillsets. I do like Guyten but he had drop issues for all his speed and I question his ability to maintain his speed if he has to be in on too many plays. You make him out to be an absolute stud on paper Chain…he just isnt. He was a nice surprise but he is still young and not well developed yet but was a good fit for the deep stretch the field wr role. Is he a plus to the offense absolutely but so will Palmer be when he is in. Palmer is a move the chains WR with less focus on the deep ball that we have seen SO FAR…you have no idea if he is going to not have deeper routes…nostrodamus?

Here is the reality. Palmer and Guyten are not intended to be our #1 or #2 wrs THIS year. That said we have never had both Allen and Williams both play the entire year together so Id bet it sure aint Guyten they will plug into Allen or MWs spot…Guyten just doesnt perform their roles well enough since he is mainly relying on his speed at this point. Is Guyten going to improve sure but he doesnt have enough to step into the short and medium route roles to keep the chains moving which is critical to win TOP and keep our D fresh.

Palmer again last night showed very good hands and that he is reliable and will move the chains. I dont expect he will be getting many snaps unless we have injuries but I like how he plays and his frame and skillset are better suited to sub in for Allen and MW. Guyten I just dont think will take the hits if he has to be in the short and mid routes.

So lets shoot the horse…agree to disagree and root for both of these Charger players.

[Bolt Dude]

Okay, so you agree that Guyton "was pretty damn good" last year. Great, glad to hear it. I did not know that you were so high on Guyton. He had 511 yards on fewer than 60 targets last year--better than what I projected for Palmer.

So, if his numbers were great, why are we f*cking around with that by trying to force feed Palmer the ball when we already have a great #3 WR in Guyton?

Why all the negativity about Guyton, a player that has actually already proven that level of production?

Guyton was pretty damn good last year. As was Johnson.

Here’s the thing: this WR3 idea has got to go. The better way to conceptualize the WRs in this scheme is to think about them in packages. We’ve been hearing it over and over. There will be possession packages, stretch packages, red zone packages, goal line packages, and mixed packages. Skill sets will determine packages. Game situations will determine WR usage, not some imagined pecking order.

I know we’ll never push this boulder to the top of the mountain, but at least it’s decent exercise.

[CivilBolt]

Guyton was pretty damn good last year. As was Johnson.

Here’s the thing: this WR3 idea has got to go. The better way to conceptualize the WRs in this scheme is to think about them in packages. We’ve been hearing it over and over. There will be possession packages, stretch packages, red zone packages, goal line packages, and mixed packages. Skill sets will determine packages. Game situations will determine WR usage, not some imagined pecking order.

I know we’ll never push this boulder to the top of the mountain, but at least it’s decent exercise.

I agree. As Staley mentioned before he wants his WR room to look like an NBA starting 5. You have a point guard, power forward, center, etc. looking at our roster, I think we have that variation with Palmer in the mix.

[powderblueboy]

Palmer simply does not have the upside of Tyrell Williams or VJ. Those players were just bigger, faster, better athletes than Palmer. Also, those players were more raw than Palmer at this point. Palmer will get some better, but not like Williams and VJ. The team cannot develop talent that is not there.

The problem is that Tyrell didn't play big and he was/is very limited in the type of route he runs: drag patterns and deep posts.
He lacks the ability to track footballs; his catch radius is very small; his hands are subpar;
his route running was never crisp; he'd get muscled out of a pattern ending up in interceptions too often.
With Keenan, MW & Hunter Henry, he could stretch the field and give them more room to operate underneath...so he was a perfect fit.
Palmer as a rookie is way more physical than Tyrell ever was.

You are way too focused on top end speed & size. Tyrell's small catch radius and lack of physicality meant that he had to get large separation to get open.
Palmer doesn't need to fake people out of their jocks to be open.

With Keenan, MW & Hunter Henry, Tyrell could stretch the field and give them more room to operate underneath...so he was a perfect fit.
On the Raiders, he was a bust...a big expensive bust. He proved to be nothing more than a 3rd receiver.

[Steve]

Virtually every team in the NFL has an in-house analytics department--some of them with 5-12 full time employees. And nearly every team pays for PFF consultation services. A number of GMs and coaches have visited PFF's offices in Ohio to talk shop. Almost every time I hear someone criticize them, I discover they have very little familiarity with their process.

Football is a very traditional business w/lots of oldschool folks that weren't easy to convince. Just about every team buys in now.

Analytics completely took over baseball, and has all but conquered football. We will be very grateful that Staley loves analytics and that Spanos has finally started an analytics department.

I think teams are paying PFF for their service, because so many AGENTS are using PFF as a part of their marketing and football operations stuff, but not necessarily for use on the field, expect maybe as a quick look.

BUt as far as the overall PFF articles and scouting they do, when I read their draft stuff, it reads like black magic voodoo stuff. Like I said before, I think guys make up their minds who they like, then cherry pick stats to justify their stance.

A lot of their little studies are not that well thought through and miss some key points. There is a multi-part article that PFF points out that NFL teams overvalue pass rush. They do a lot of stats and hand waving, then seem to forget that modern NFL offenses are DESIGNED to throw the football in 2 or 3 seconds and the QB is not supposed to stay in the pocket and wait no matter what. The reason is that pass rush dictate to the offense how the game is played. You don't need any stats to prove that, it is in the nature of the game, how the game is played, so there is no way to run a statistical test that can remove that. It is inherent in every (passing) play.

As far as being scientific and systematic, in some ways traditional football was way ahead of other sports in terms of analytics. For the last 20 or 30 years, NFL teams spend large portions of their offseasons looking at film, and studying how their season went, and what can they do to improve things. There are things that "analytics" can add to football, but it will never take over from traditional film study. It may become more prominent as teams start to do way more data collection on their own, but I suspect that is what the large staff is doing.

But when it comes down to 4th and 1 or 2, late in the game, late in the season, with the playoffs on the line, teams don't give a shit what the NFL 4th down conversion percentage is. They want to know if they have a specific play to get that 1st down or TD, against the team they are playing or not. It is still going to come down to what plays and formations do they call, to get the matchup against a specific player to get the 1st down/TD.

People are speculating that teams are being taken over by analytics, but since no one has any idea how teams are using analytics in NFL teams, you really don't know.

NFL teams are famous for putting huge amounts of work into ANYTHING they feel will give them an advantage. Every NFL front office, coach and scout realizes that their backup jobs for all but the top 1% (who go into TV) is being a HS gym teacher. Most of these guys will do almost ANYTHING to stay in a game that pays them, and keeps them in the competitive environment (former NFL people are the most competitive people you will ever meet). None of it means that the game has been taken over by analytics. They are certainly using it, but to what degree, and do they use it as a primary thing or secondary?

FWIW, a lot of people are discovering that some of us have been doing a lot of analytics for a lot longer than it has been called analytics. I was encouraged by my employer a few years ago to start taking classes in it, only to discover that we had been doing a lot of "analytics" studies for YEARS before it was ever called analytics. Stuff like all the neural networks in machine learning, was all the rage back in the 90's, and it works well in some areas, and not so well in others. And a lot of science still uses techniques that are not part of analytics and machine learning, because their are other techniques that are a lot better (deterministic systems).