Welcome Josh Palmer, WR, Tennessee (Pick #77)

[sonorajim]

Not sure I agree, I still believe Palmer is one injury away from an amazing breakout season.

One early season ending injury to KA or MW would do it.
Otherwise it'll be a nice uptake in targets while we rest the studs to prevent the above.

[Guest]

It's not the QB's choice who to go for 1st. That is dictated by the play and coverage. QB lines up, calls the play, then starts making the pre-snap reads. Again, a lot of the plays you evidently think he is open (ie the DB is not that close) is either the 2nd level coverage passing him off to the 3rd level, or the 2nd level guy taking lanes away, so that while they look open, they really aren't.

I agree that Allen was used to much on option and crossing routes, but my impression was that it was because Guyton was not very good at it. That is an area that either Ekeler coming out of the slot, or a TE could really help at. Either that, or if Palmer develops. But you have to attack the middle of the field, or the posts on odd 3rd level coverages, or the fades, fly's and flag's on even deep coverages aren't going to be there.

If Palmer continues to develop and is indeed geting bigger and more physical, then he may be an option to attack the middle of the field. But you really need plenty of different options or the D knows what is coming, and it is a lot harder to beat when that happens.

I never stated that it was the QB's choice regarding which receiver to target first. I am saying that in point of fact Herbert ends up not looking for Guyton until the end of his progression on the vast majority of passing plays. I noted for almost the entire season last year that the team was consistently misusing and underutilizing Guyton.

The average separation information shows that Guyton had the best separation of our WRs. So that is not me imagining that. That is the reality. It seems that you think that if the QB did not look for Guyton, that means he was not open. I disagree. I seriously doubt there is a radical difference in separation on plays on which Guyton was targeted versus plays on which he was not. In fact, because the QB often came to Guyton so late and at times out of desperation on a tight window throw after all other options had failed, I think there is a pretty good chance that Guyton's separation was actually slightly larger on plays on which he was not targeted, though I do not have any data one way or the other on those plays, just my suspicion.

Guyton is the best WR we have for running crossing routes because he can run away from coverage and use his speed to produce big gains exactly as we used to use Tyrell Williams--catch the ball on the run, beat the defender to the edge and turn it upfield. How sophisticated of a route runner do you think Tyrell Williams was for us? I would say not very. Of course, it would help to have another WR that had the speed to help clear out the area that Guyton would be running into, but why have two speedy options when you can have K.J. Hill instead? :facepalm1:

And, of course, Allen is the worst candidate to run the medium/deep crossing routes because he cannot run away from anyone, including many LBs in today's NFL, which increases the likelihood that the pass will be undercut and picked off, which happened at least twice last year. Also, Allen is not likely to turn those crossing routes into TDs whereas Guyton is more likely to do so.

Unfortunately, I think Palmer's lack of ability to gain separation makes him a poor choice for passes into the middle of the field. Also, his frame is just not big enough to be covered and open at the same time even if he is muscularly maxed out. People seem to think he is bigger than Guyton. The measurements suggest otherwise. I am good with letting Mike Williams attack the middle and with Allen attacking the short middle (because Allen gains quick separation before the DBs can recover). I agree with you that Everett (TE) and Ekeler (in the short middle) can be useful as well in this capacity too.

[Guest]

One early season ending injury to KA or MW would do it.
Otherwise it'll be a nice uptake in targets while we rest the studs to prevent the above.

I think Palmer's stats would increase, but he is not as good as Tyrell Williams or Keenan Allen were when they had those kinds of opportunities. Just because a a player has a starter's stats doe snot mean that he will produce like an elite starter even in a good offense for a WR.

At the end of the day, Vincent Brown could only be Vincent Brown. And while I think Palmer could do a little better than Brown did, I do not see any sort of thousand yard season or anything all that close to that for Palmer, especially with Palmer being a low yards per reception WR.

[21&500]

Not sure I agree, I still believe Palmer is one injury away from an amazing breakout season.

Super hopeful too.
but I can't help but immediately think about the third round pick after him (Tre McKitty)
I need to see some ROI soon

[dmac_bolt]

I never stated that it was the QB's choice regarding which receiver to target first. I am saying that in point of fact Herbert ends up not looking for Guyton until the end of his progression on the vast majority of passing plays. I noted for almost the entire season last year that the team was consistently misusing and underutilizing Guyton.

The average separation information shows that Guyton had the best separation of our WRs. So that is not me imagining that. That is the reality. It seems that you think that if the QB did not look for Guyton, that means he was not open. I disagree. I seriously doubt there is a radical difference in separation on plays on which Guyton was targeted versus plays on which he was not. In fact, because the QB often came to Guyton so late and at times out of desperation on a tight window throw after all other options had failed, I think there is a pretty good chance that Guyton's separation was actually slightly larger on plays on which he was not targeted, though I do not have any data one way or the other on those plays, just my suspicion.

Guyton is the best WR we have for running crossing routes because he can run away from coverage and use his speed to produce big gains exactly as we used to use Tyrell Williams--catch the ball on the run, beat the defender to the edge and turn it upfield. How sophisticated of a route runner do you think Tyrell Williams was for us? I would say not very. Of course, it would help to have another WR that had the speed to help clear out the area that Guyton would be running into, but why have two speedy options when you can have K.J. Hill instead? :facepalm1:

And, of course, Allen is the worst candidate to run the medium/deep crossing routes because he cannot run away from anyone, including many LBs in today's NFL, which increases the likelihood that the pass will be undercut and picked off, which happened at least twice last year. Also, Allen is not likely to turn those crossing routes into TDs whereas Guyton is more likely to do so.

Unfortunately, I think Palmer's lack of ability to gain separation makes him a poor choice for passes into the middle of the field. Also, his frame is just not big enough to be covered and open at the same time even if he is muscularly maxed out. People seem to think he is bigger than Guyton. The measurements suggest otherwise. I am good with letting Mike Williams attack the middle and with Allen attacking the short middle (because Allen gains quick separation before the DBs can recover). I agree with you that Everett (TE) and Ekeler (in the short middle) can be useful as well in this capacity too.

Maybe Herbert’s progressions are to look for Guyton last because Guyton is only open is after he runs deep. Maybe Guyton only has that separation after he’s been running deep. Maybe he is scripted to run less shorter routes because he’s not as good at those (That is the consensus, after all)?

Idunno - a lot of missing data details to make absolute adamant statements of “fact”. And yet you do …

We all understand your view of Palmer. Its fine to have your opinion. We all get it. A lot of us don’t agree Palmer is as deficient and hobbled for success as you do. How about we all just wait for the season to reveal itself. You don’t need to repeat your same arguments another 100 times. Everything you posted here you have already said multiple times.

btw they cut KJ Hill last year

[Guest]

Maybe Herbert’s progressions are to look for Guyton last because Guyton is only open is after he runs deep. Maybe Guyton only has that separation after he’s been running deep. Maybe he is scripted to run less shorter routes because he’s not as good at those (That is the consensus, after all)?

Idunno - a lot of missing data details to make absolute adamant statements of “fact”. And yet you do …

We all understand your view of Palmer. Its fine to have your opinion. We all get it. A lot of us don’t agree Palmer is as deficient and hobbled for success as you do. How about we all just wait for the season to reveal itself. You don’t need to repeat your same arguments another 100 times. Everything you posted here you have already said multiple times.

btw they cut KJ Hill last year

First, I merely said that Herbert usually did not come to Guyton until late in his progressions. That was simply what I believe to be a factual statement. And while I certainly believe that Lombardi misused and underutilized Guyton, it was not necessary for me to emphasize that to establish my point which was nothing more than Guyton usually came late in Herbert's progressions. That alleged fact was all I needed to establish my point.

Yes, I know that the team cut K.J. Hill last year. The second speedy WR I was referring to without naming him was Tyron Johnson. The fact that they cut K.J. Hill last year makes their failure to keep Johnson even worse than the idiocy that it was when it first happened. The difference between talent (Johnson) and not talent (Hill) was clear from moment one and Staley just blew that one.

Having Johnson would have provided that second speedy WR that I referenced to run clear out type patterns for the crossing routes of Guyton. It also would have given us a second speedy WR to run those crossing routes. All of this would be much better than Allen running deeper crossing routes as he did last year, which resulted in multiple INTs basically because we were stupid in our personnel allocation, which was something I first began noticing and posting about pretty early on least year with what Lombardi was doing. But again, I think Lombardi did do a very good job with how he used Williams, so he gets credit for that.

Regarding my "in fact" statement, I stated that I think there is a good chance that Guyton's separation may have been even greater on plays on which he was not targeted. "In fact" refers to the fact of what I am thinking and I am 100% sure I know what I am thinking. People are free to challenge whether or not what I am thinking is correct, but they would have to have their heads pretty far up their backsides to suggest that I do not know what I am thinking and that they somehow do.

And until my previous post, I do not recall ever specifically addressing Palmer's ability to be physical in terms of attacking the middle of the field. But I do agree that I believe Palmer is more limited in his ability as a WR than others on this forum seem to think.

[Steve]

I never stated that it was the QB's choice regarding which receiver to target first. I am saying that in point of fact Herbert ends up not looking for Guyton until the end of his progression on the vast majority of passing plays. I noted for almost the entire season last year that the team was consistently misusing and underutilizing Guyton.

You should lead with that next time.

[Fleet 1]

LOL Josh Palmer > Camp Discussion

This thread is taking away from what we all should be discussing and thats camp. I think we have beaten the horse dead right?

I mean ill do what you guys want. But is it time to move on?

I expect to see an increase of 11/12 personell this season. Around a 75% type deal. Guyton will be that deep speed factor to compliment MW and Keenan. Palmer is coming off his rookie season. Takes 3 years to develop guys is the common rule of thumb. Im not getting the anti Palmer stuff. I think when he cleans up his routes he can do some of the things Keenan does.

I expect to see more KA/MW/JG sets than KA/MW/JP sets. I think Palmer is a nice spell for Keenan. I sort of felt like we drafted Palmer to play that Keenan role. More of a possession type.

I also felt that Staley took a jab at Guyton during a combine interview. Suggesting that guys like him can easily telegraph a play if they are not complete type players. Routes etc. But it sounds like he is rounding out his game.

I expect to draft a stud WR in the coming years anyways. Its just where they NFL is trending.

[Guest]

You should lead with that next time.

Perhaps, but I did not know anyone interpreted my post the way that you did until your post raised that possibility. And once raised by you, in my response to you, I did lead with the portion that you quoted.

[equivocation]

Lots of stud WRs entered the league the last couple years.

But now teams want 3 stud WRs. Supply up but demand also up a lot.

[Pat_Swindle]

It was a running joke at old Charger forums, whenever someone broke the rules they got a forum "vacation" to cabo

I'm too much of a forum newbie here. Still learning the ropes, but duly noted on the free trip to Cabo. Sounds wonderful.

[blueman]

How does a team underutilized and misuse a receiver who is 3rd worst in the LEAGUE at getting off the LOS? By putting him on the field in the first place?? Makes absolutely no sense.