Originally posted by Formula 21
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Oh and by the way, the analytics folks think it was the right call, or at least not a bad one. Here's a quote from an article in The Athletic
The win probability math varied significantly among different models on this decision. Ben Baldwin’s model had the decision inherently giving the Chargers 11.7 percent in added win probability. ESPN’s model had the decision adding 5.2 percent in win probability. Next Gen Stats’ model — which had the yards to gain at 1.7 versus just one — had the Chargers losing 0.2 percent in win probability with the decision.
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