Coach Staley Discussion - Fired

[PhilaBoltster]

I would have been ok going for it with it if there were 2 minutes left and Cleveland had timeouts. That’s a completely different story.

[richpjr]

Staley is going to keep going for it at unconventional times when the analytics say it increases our chances of winning so as long as he is here people better buckle up on 4th down.

[captaind]

The day after I haven't changed my mind about it.

I can appreciate Staley's aggressiveness, as we have had coaches to the extreme in the other direction. But he lacks sound judgment. Today was a case of being aggressive just for the sake of being aggressive.

This kid is too rash and too inexperienced. He needs experienced coordinators around him if he's going to succeed going forward.

[richpjr]

From MMQB:

Conor Orr: Brandon Staley, coach, Chargers. Part of me feared Staley was taken into a storage room deep in the Chargers’ facility and bullied by a conservative management type into stopping his outlier fourth-down decisions, which, mathematically, aren’t really outlier fourth-down decisions. His call to go for a fourth-and-1 against the Browns with 1:14 left in the fourth quarter, even if it didn’t work out (and even if it wasn’t the right play), was the right call from a mathematical standpoint. I am all for Staley doing what makes sense, even if it's not from a locale on the field that Mark Schlereth would approve of during a game.

[wu-dai clan]

Nate Burleson says Chargers are 7-0 when making questionable calls on 4th down at the end of games.

Bill Cowher, sitting next to Nate, swallows his cud.

[Air Coryell 84]

I thought the 4th down call today was the right call and was glad he went for it. I thought if they punted it they would lose the football game as cleveland would still have 1:14 left and their kicker can hit from 60. It only takes 2 completions to get in FG range starting from your own 25. I just didn't think he'd go for it due to reaction if he didn't make it. I'm glad he proved me wrong (even though they didn't convert the 4th down). It was the right decision & analytics back that up. It was a strong go.

Analytics didn’t predict a whiffed FG, and everyone knows that’s the ONLY reason we won.

[Air Coryell 84]

Amazing how the Bolts seem to have a knack for hiring HC/s who consistently make bonehead blunder game decisions...Staley, Lynn, MM...

You forgot Norv Turner

[JupiterBolt]

this is interesting…

[Air Coryell]

Staley should be fired for not bringing anything to the defensive side of the ball (as advertised) and hiring an inexperienced DC, etc., that has not worked. The offense, while choppy, is OK enough with a stout defense and special teams. The bonehead 4th down calls are just that. I also think he should have kicked the fg on the opening drive on 4th and 2 from the 28.

[MusicMakerInMe]

You’re comparing Lamar Jackson and Justin Tucker to Jacoby Brissett and Chris York?

so, your theory is the defense played more aggressively than they normally would? The Browns were in FG range with one short completion over the middle. Brissett is not a premium passer. If our defense is so bad that it can’t hold the mighty 25th ranked passing attack of Jacoby Brissett and the Cleveland Browns out of fg range after a punt that should have put them inside their 20 with a minute to go and no TO’s, I could live with that.

but giving them the ball at a spot where they only needed a 10 yard completion to be in range for a game winning fg doesn’t make sense to me

Exactly. Remember, all Cleveland had to do was pick up 15-20 yards. If you want to talk "modern NFL" plenty of the best teams can pick up 15-20+ yards late, easy: KC, Buffalo, Philly, etc. any legit team.

Those stats and analytics don't account for Cleveland selling with a 40 yard pass on 2nd down.

Most teams would go to the flats or one really good intermediate play, spikes the ball and game over with a 30-40 yard FG.

Maybe Cleveland was giving a "gentleman's chance" by taking a low percentage play rather than the friendly gift-wrapped W similar to how Shanahan called a more complex play when they went for 2 points about 15 years ago. I think if I remember right, Shanahan said something along the lines of: "Yeah the ref messed up that play in our favor, so I called a more difficult play to even things out." That pass downfield may have been that. Put speculation all to say, that's a real dumb tactic against most teams.

[Formula 21]

Ah, there's the secret. If you make a dumb call but it's conventional, that's okay. It's only when you go against the grain that it's stupid.

Oh and by the way, the analytics folks think it was the right call, or at least not a bad one. Here's a quote from an article in The Athletic



So two models think it was the right call, and one basically said it was 50/50. Now, maybe you don't "believe" in analytics. But Staley does, and we all know this. So if you think he should be fired for this call, then he should be fired because he uses analytics, period.

Except those analytics were based on an average team with an average qb. We were playing a team with a backup qb. No way does he drive down the field into scoring position in about a minute and 15 seconds.


And you trust your D to stop them when they’re on your 45, but not when they’re on their 25? What’s the analytics say about that? Put the O 30 yards further down the field and expect them to have a better chance to win the game?

What’s analytics have to say about remaking game time? 4th and 2 in the 1st quarter is different than 4th and 2 on the last play of the game. On the last play of the game, penalties don’t matter. The game is lost if the 1st down is made, even by penalty. The DB can be all over the WR because penalties don’t matter. At other times in the game, penalties do matter because you don’t want to give up the first down by penalty.

I believe in analytics, but you have to adjust them based on the opponent. If we were playing KC in KC with 3 timeouts left, the decision would be more sound and I’d have no problem with it.

[richpjr]

And you trust your D to step them when they’re on your 45, but not when they’re on their 25? What’s the analytics say about that? Put the O 30 yards further down the field and expect them to have a better chance to win the game?

I think Staley, like all coaches, uses coach-speak after the game about the comfort level he had of the D making a stop. He was watching the same thing we were and the offense was playing FAR better than the D. Hell, if their QB walks for the first down instead of gifting us with his one bad pass of the day, this situation never even comes up as we'd be the team scrambling to come from behind. Not hard to see why he felt the O had a better chance to ice the win than the D had of stopping, especially with the analytics backing the decision up. Not know what the analytics said at the time, I would have punted. If I had access to them, I am not sure I would punt.