Coach Staley Discussion - Fired

[joebarnin]

Both were conventional and neither were as bad IMO. This call handed the game to the Browns on a silver platter. Until they Chargered.

Ah, there's the secret. If you make a dumb call but it's conventional, that's okay. It's only when you go against the grain that it's stupid.

Oh and by the way, the analytics folks think it was the right call, or at least not a bad one. Here's a quote from an article in The Athletic

The win probability math varied significantly among different models on this decision. Ben Baldwin’s model had the decision inherently giving the Chargers 11.7 percent in added win probability. ESPN’s model had the decision adding 5.2 percent in win probability. Next Gen Stats’ model — which had the yards to gain at 1.7 versus just one — had the Chargers losing 0.2 percent in win probability with the decision.

So two models think it was the right call, and one basically said it was 50/50. Now, maybe you don't "believe" in analytics. But Staley does, and we all know this. So if you think he should be fired for this call, then he should be fired because he uses analytics, period.

[Budsman]

Disagree.

The chance of converting a 4th and 2 is about 40%. Even less if the D is willing to climb up the receiver’s ass and dare the officials to throw a flag.

If you don’t get it, 95% chance you lose.

You really think we don’t get 2 yards more often than we would get 2 yards on any given play? I suspect that’s not borne out by the stats but ok…

[REH]

At least run the ball after avg 7 ypc during the game to pick up the 4th down. If you're going to make a bad 4th down call go with what has been working.

[Budsman]

Ah, there's the secret. If you make a dumb call but it's conventional, that's okay. It's only when you go against the grain that it's stupid.

Oh and by the way, the analytics folks think it was the right call, or at least not a bad one. Here's a quote from an article in The Athletic



So two models think it was the right call, and one basically said it was 50/50. Now, maybe you don't "believe" in analytics. But Staley does, and we all know this. So if you think he should be fired for this call, then he should be fired because he uses analytics, period.

This!!! You get it.

I love the hypocrisy of everyone being super happy with the idea of playing conservatively. I know lots of chargers games that have ended on last second field goals that fans lamented and called for the coaches head for allowing the opposing team to March into field goal position and win. Fans are just not used to using analytics in football. They are used to the tired old thinking and when a coach with the guts to make the tough calls does it all the fans and old school analysts moan and groan.

That’s the same thing that happened with the old time poker players when the young guns started coming in and using analytics and probabilities vs gut reactions. They old timers laughed and said it was the wrong way to do it, now everyone is doing it. The same will happen with this game, analytics will become the name of the game and going against the analytics will be seen as the controversial decision.

[Formula 21]

Ah, there's the secret. If you make a dumb call but it's conventional, that's okay. It's only when you go against the grain that it's stupid.

Oh and by the way, the analytics folks think it was the right call, or at least not a bad one. Here's a quote from an article in The Athletic



So two models think it was the right call, and one basically said it was 50/50. Now, maybe you don't "believe" in analytics. But Staley does, and we all know this. So if you think he should be fired for this call, then he should be fired because he uses analytics, period.

The analytics are based on the average team with an average QB. Not on an average team with a sub average QB.

So you trust your D to make a stop on your own 45, but you don’t trust your D to make a stop on the opponent’s 25?

[Budsman]

The analytics are based on the average team with an average QB. Not on an average team with a sub average QB.

So you trust your D to make a stop on your own 45, but you don’t trust your D to make a stop on the opponent’s 25?

You’re not seeing all the percentages. I trust our team to win 99.9 percent of the time if we pick up 2 yards on one play. I also trust our team to get 2 yards on any given play at least 60% of the time.

After watching our pass rush (or lack thereof) and mediocre Brissett carving up our defense all night I don’t have more than a 50/50 feeling that we stop them from getting into field goal range.

Think back to how many times you have watched the chargers fall into a prevent defense only to watch an opposing team March down the field to kick the winning field goal. Defending the whole field to stop them getting to the 40 yard line is much harder than picking up 2 yards on a play. Sure the play turned sour but I think the odds of Herbert finding 2 yards in a play is more than the odds of the chargers stopping Brissett from marching the browns into field goal range.

[Kellyb72601]

People keep wanting to call Staley stupid and true they did lose 2 games last year vs KC & the 'fade by going for it on 4th down but they also won at least 3 they would have lost. Cleveland likely would have won that game today had we punted. Chargers would have been in prevent defense, no pass rush all game long, only takes 2 mid-range completions to get from their 25 to our 40 & they would have gone for it every 4th down to get in position. The missed conversion actually helped our defense as forced them to play more aggressive and play for a stop. Cincinnati lost the football game tonight when they had to kick to Baltimore down 1 with 2 minutes left. It only took Baltimore about 30 seconds to get in field goal range. This isn't the 90's NFL anymore teams usually move the ball in those situations

[Budsman]

People keep wanting to call Staley stupid and true they did lose 2 games last year vs KC & the 'fade by going for it on 4th down but they also won at least 3 they would have lost. Cleveland likely would have won that game today had we punted. Chargers would have been in prevent defense, no pass rush all game long, only takes 2 mid-range completions to get from their 25 to our 40 & they would have gone for it every 4th down to get in position. The missed conversion actually helped our defense as forced them to play more aggressive and play for a stop. Cincinnati lost the football game tonight when they had to kick to Baltimore down 1 with 2 minutes left. It only took Baltimore about 30 seconds to get in field goal range. This isn't the 90's NFL anymore teams usually move the ball in those situations

[REH]

The trouble with football "analytics" is that it presumes all 4th and 2 plays are the same. It's much easier to pick up 4th and 2 when the game isn't on the line. Cleveland was going to sell out there.

[powderblueboy]

This!!! You get it.

I love the hypocrisy of everyone being super happy with the idea of playing conservatively. I know lots of chargers games that have ended on last second field goals that fans lamented and called for the coaches head for allowing the opposing team to March into field goal position and win. Fans are just not used to using analytics in football. They are used to the tired old thinking and when a coach with the guts to make the tough calls does it all the fans and old school analysts moan and groan.

That’s the same thing that happened with the old time poker players when the young guns started coming in and using analytics and probabilities vs gut reactions. They old timers laughed and said it was the wrong way to do it, now everyone is doing it. The same will happen with this game, analytics will become the name of the game and going against the analytics will be seen as the controversial decision.

Very few criticize Staley for not going for it.
Personally, i'd rather have Staley be more aggressive on defense and offense, instead of 4rth downs.

But when you go for it from your own 18, or from the 48 for today, in big moments - i have a hard time with it.

And by the way, i called Staley an idiot for that - not stupid.

[jamrock]

People keep wanting to call Staley stupid and true they did lose 2 games last year vs KC & the 'fade by going for it on 4th down but they also won at least 3 they would have lost. Cleveland likely would have won that game today had we punted. Chargers would have been in prevent defense, no pass rush all game long, only takes 2 mid-range completions to get from their 25 to our 40 & they would have gone for it every 4th down to get in position. The missed conversion actually helped our defense as forced them to play more aggressive and play for a stop. Cincinnati lost the football game tonight when they had to kick to Baltimore down 1 with 2 minutes left. It only took Baltimore about 30 seconds to get in field goal range. This isn't the 90's NFL anymore teams usually move the ball in those situations

You’re comparing Lamar Jackson and Justin Tucker to Jacoby Brissett and Chris York?

so, your theory is the defense played more aggressively than they normally would? The Browns were in FG range with one short completion over the middle. Brissett is not a premium passer. If our defense is so bad that it can’t hold the mighty 25th ranked passing attack of Jacoby Brissett and the Cleveland Browns out of fg range after a punt that should have put them inside their 20 with a minute to go and no TO’s, I could live with that.

but giving them the ball at a spot where they only needed a 10 yard completion to be in range for a game winning fg doesn’t make sense to me

[RollingThunder]

Disagree.

The chance of converting a 4th and 2 is about 40%. Even less if the D is willing to climb up the receiver’s ass and dare the officials to throw a flag.

If you don’t get it, 95% chance you lose.

Why do you keep repeating this? A penalty in that situation gives the Chargers a first down and the win. A penalty is not a negative so let the defenders be aggressive.