Patriots at Chargers Pregame Discussion (wk 8)

[BlazingBolt]

Bellichick defense is not the recipe for a bounce back game for Herbert is my worry. I am really hoping we don't get two bad games in a row.

[Critty]

I still can't believe that Roberts and Hopkins were let go during the bye. And Chargers immediately picked them up.

Hopkins is the 20th most accurate kicker in NFL history.

Roberts is 20th all time as kick returner in NFL history.

My panic rate about special teams went from hair on fire to I'm not even sweating it anymore. They won't be perfect, but man they will be so much better than what it was.

[sonorajim]

Get this.Teams have gotten a lot of film now on the Chargers passing game. Meaning Herbert has to thread the needle more often now. Didn’t happen last week. Might be just as challenging this week. What now Staley and your now exclaimed “Super Star” QB? Thread the needle even more, I guess. Teams are starting to thwart completions Herbert made earlier in the season. I definitely noticed that against the Ravens drubbing of the Chargers pathetic passing offense. Me worried? Sort of. This game will tell the tale.

Having film doesn't mean they can cover Keenan & Mike. Everybody has had film of them for years. Keenan is the best route runner in the NFL and it's the exception when he isn't open. Double both and we have some pretty good TEs and other WRs, not to mention RB who catch. Basically, the only ones who can stop our passing game is us. Bad days can happen, re: Bal. Don't expect 2 in a row.

[Bolt4Knob]

I still can't believe that Roberts and Hopkins were let go during the bye. And Chargers immediately picked them up.

Hopkins is the 20th most accurate kicker in NFL history.

Roberts is 20th all time as kick returner in NFL history.

My panic rate about special teams went from hair on fire to I'm not even sweating it anymore. They won't be perfect, but man they will be so much better than what it was.

And I also think a philosophical change in looking at the roster. Vizcaino really hadn't lost the team a game yet - he just wasn't consistent. Now the return game was lacking. But for Telesco/Staley to see two areas of need and fix them - I think thats positive and something new.

My hope is Sunday that Roberts catches a lot of punts and has 1 maybe 2 opportunities for return. And that Hopkins has about 4 extra points and a couple field goal attempts

[Boltdiehard]

Whew lotta fear in here this week I can’t do it.

Justin and Brandon the Dragonslayers let’s go!

:anchorjump:

[sonorajim]

I’m not sure what Caslon posted about threading the needle made any sense either.

I think he meant that Herbert has to make every pass with pinpoint accuracy & timing now that teams have film of our 2021 passing offense.
Of course D is played by imperfect men. It would be liberating if we could count on teams to defend what we did instead of what we're doing.

[Critty]

And I also think a philosophical change in looking at the roster. Vizcaino really hadn't lost the team a game yet - he just wasn't consistent. Now the return game was lacking. But for Telesco/Staley to see two areas of need and fix them - I think thats positive and something new.

My hope is Sunday that Roberts catches a lot of punts and has 1 maybe 2 opportunities for return. And that Hopkins has about 4 extra points and a couple field goal attempts

DJak is asking for a trade from Rams.

Should Chargers pounce. Offer a conditional 7th.

He can still fly. Would likely be a better deep threat than Guyton. And can be back there on kickoff with Roberts as a threat. And if Roberts has to miss a game. Then DJak returns punts. Better depth/threat to make big plays.

If it doesn't work out. What was lost. I bet they could waive Guyton and nobody would pick him up and they could put him on the practice squad and release Hill.

[FoutsFan]

I think he meant that Herbert has to make every pass with pinpoint accuracy & timing now that teams have film of our 2021 passing offense.
Of course D is played by imperfect men. It would be liberating if we could count on teams to defend what we did instead of what we're doing.

He really had to thread the needle on the long throws to Williams vs. the Browns. Its like hitting a tea cup with a football at 75 yards. How does Herbert do it?

[CivilBolt]

I still can't believe that Roberts and Hopkins were let go during the bye. And Chargers immediately picked them up.

Hopkins is the 20th most accurate kicker in NFL history.

Roberts is 20th all time as kick returner in NFL history.

My panic rate about special teams went from hair on fire to I'm not even sweating it anymore. They won't be perfect, but man they will be so much better than what it was.

I’ll reserve my judgement until I see them play.

[Xenos]

Popper’s mailbag: nice to see Justin Jones practice all week. And good point about our other edge rushers.

https://theathletic.com/2922729/2021/10/29/what-changes-will-chargers-make-offensively-coming-out-of-the-bye-week-mailbag/

Coming off their bye week, the Chargers will host the Patriots on Sunday at SoFi Stadium.

This is a rematch of one of the Chargers’ worst losses in franchise history. The Patriots drubbed the Chargers, 45-0, at SoFi in early December last season. It marked the beginning of the end for Anthony Lynn. Both these teams look dramatically different entering this matchup. The Patriots have a new starting quarterback in rookie Mac Jones. The Chargers are certainly an improved group.

Some injury news before we get to questions.

Running back Austin Ekeler missed practice on Thursday and Friday. He is questionable for the game with a hip injury. Ekeler practiced fully Wednesday but felt some soreness in his hip afterward. Coach Brandon Staley said he is “real hopeful” Ekeler will be able to play against the Patriots.

Linebacker Drue Tranquill, who has not played since Week 5 because of a pectoral injury, is questionable, as well. Tranquill was limited in all three practices this week but was in pads Thursday. Staley said he is also “hopeful” that Tranquill will be able to play.

Defensive lineman Justin Jones remains on injured reserve, but he was designated for return on Monday and practiced all four days this week. “It’s still to be determined,” Staley said. “He’s looked good, but we’re just going to make sure of that final yes, and then we’ll go from there. But hopeful that he can play.”

You ask. I answer.

It’s the mailbag.


Do you envision any significant changes to the Chargers’ play calling after the bye week? — @dislacksick

The Chargers and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi will absolutely be making tweaks to their offensive approach and play calling coming out of the bye week. But I do not think they will rise to “significant changes.” The Chargers are still a good offense by pretty much every metric. They rank sixth in offensive expected points added per play, according to TruMedia, and they rank 11th in DVOA, Football Outsiders’ efficacy metric.

They do not need to make wholesale changes to their offensive scheming. Still, there is room to improve, and some tweaks could help raise this offense to a higher level.

The main point of emphasis for the offense coming out of the bye week revolves around improving efficiency on first and second down. Despite the solid overall output, the Chargers rank 23rd in EPA/play on early downs. They rank 26th in EPA/play on first down and 26th in EPA/play on first-down passes. They are relying too heavily on third- and fourth-down performance. That came back to bite them in the Ravens game. So the adjustments, for the most part, will center on improving on those early downs.

Lombardi mentioned three general areas in which he wanted to see continued development coming off the bye: the screen game, the play-action game, and the quarterback-movement game.

The last two go hand-in-hand. Designed rollouts and pocket-movement designs typically come off of play action. Justin Herbert was really good off of play action last season. The Chargers ranked 13th in the NFL in EPA/play on play action last season. This season, the Chargers rank 25th and are actually averaging negative EPA/play on play action. How do they improve this? More designed quarterback movement. It is a strength of Herbert’s and something the Chargers should lean into over their final 11 games of the season. Designed quarterback movement could help create more easy completions for Herbert on early downs and, in turn, help improve the efficiency on those downs.

The Chargers are passing often on early downs and first downs. This is not an aggressiveness issue. They just have to be more productive and efficient on those early-down passes.

“A strength of his is a strength of ours,” Staley said of Herbert and designed quarterback movement. “I don’t think you can ever have enough of it. Every game takes this shape of life of its own, and you’ve heard me say that. But I do think what you can do is kind of commit to a game plan, and on offense, you can do that with those specific plays because of where they come. You can kind of implement them at any down and distance, any field zone. So I think that’s a point of emphasis for us.”

In terms of the screen game, Lombardi said a big part of the adjustment moving forward will be “calling them in the right spot” and, in general, “having just a little more focus on that.”

So more quarterback movement, particularly off play action, and more screens. Those are the primary tweaks I think the Chargers will make offensively coming off the bye. And they have to find more consistency with the rushing attack.


Can we get a % on odds of a trade actually happening before the deadline? — @chargertkc

I think there is a 21 percent chance the Chargers will trade for a player before the deadline. It is a low number, I know. But, as I wrote earlier this week, Tom Telesco has never acquired a player via trade in season in his previous eight years as general manager. And that is not an accident. It goes against his philosophy of valuing draft picks and building through the draft. The Chargers have needs, particularly on the defensive line. Trading for a player, though, does not necessarily mean that need will be filled. Players become available for a reason — usually declining performance or injury. It is rare that a true difference-maker is available during the season. Because of this, I think there is a very good chance that Telesco stands pat at the deadline.

Why was Dustin Hopkins cut from WFT? Should we be cautiously optimistic? — @NathanTruth

Washington ultimately decided to move on from Dustin Hopkins because of some bad misses in key spots. He missed two extra points in a win over Atlanta in Week 4. And then in Week 6 against the Chiefs, he missed a 42-yarder with Washington leading 13-10. Kansas City scored on the next possession and finished the game on a 21-0 run to win 31-13.

The relationship had run its course. For the Chargers, he was an ideal fit. Both Staley and special teams coordinator Derius Swinton used the word “experience’ when discussing the Hopkins signing this week, and that is the overarching theme here. The Chargers needed a stabilizing force at kicker. Tristan Vizcaino is immensely talented, but he lacked that experience, and it was preventing him from performing well enough.

Hopkins is a proven kicker in this league. Since he joined the NFL in 2015, Hopkins has made 78.7 percent of his kicks between 42 and 48 yards, above the league average of 75.5 percent over that span. And he has made 68.7 percent of his kicks longer than 45 yards, above the league average of 67.4 percent during the span.

So yes, definitely reason to be optimistic. The only concern with Hopkins is that he has been relatively inconsistent from outside of 50 yards. He has made 14 of 27 such kicks in his career. That 51.9 percent make rate is well below the league average of 62.9 percent since 2015.

If he can make his extra points, though, he is a clear upgrade over Vizcaino, who the Chargers re-signed to their practice squad.


Why not make a push for DE? — @isupthere

I know a lot of Chargers fans have been disappointed with the edge rush so far this season, and the numbers bear that out. The Chargers rank 27th in total pressures with 70 and 29th in pressure rate, according to TruMedia. But I think there is some context some are missing that helps explain the relative lack of productivity.

The Chargers simply have not created enough true pass-rush situations this season, and that falls on the league-worst run defense. They are not stopping the run on first and second down, and that is setting up too many third-and-short or third-and-manageable downs for opposing offenses. Edge rushers make their money on third-and-long. And the Chargers are not creating enough third-and-longs.

In fact, the Chargers are tied with the Jaguarsfor the fewest third-and-7+ downs faced this season defensively with 28, according to TruMedia. And that correlates to pass-rushing productivity. The Dolphins, Bengals, Washington Football Team, Raiders, Brownsand Ravens all rank in the top 10 in number of third-and-7+ downs faced this season defensively. They also all rank in the top 10 in total pressures.

I like the Chargers’ group of edge rushers. I think Joey Bosa, Uchenna Nwosu, Kyler Fackrell and even rookie Chris Rumph have all played well this season. I do not think they need more talent. It comes down to creating more true pass-rushing situations. And that starts with stopping the run.


Will Justin Jones solve everything for the run defense? — @Lu_is_Martinez

No, Jones will not solve everything for the Chargers struggling run defense. But he will definitely help. Jones is a playmaker against the run, and they have missed his presence dearly. He will help them be more consistent in their run fits. He will take on double teams more physically. And he will provide the splash plays that will set the offense back and derail drives.

The Chargers are relying on Jones to give them a boost. Coming out of the bye week, the run defense is the single biggest concern for this team. Patriots coach Bill Belichick will undoubtedly attack that weakness. I am expecting Jones to play Sunday. We will see how big of an impact he can make.

[Xenos]

I think he meant that Herbert has to make every pass with pinpoint accuracy & timing now that teams have film of our 2021 passing offense.
Of course D is played by imperfect men. It would be liberating if we could count on teams to defend what we did instead of what we're doing.

Yeah but that’s not the problem on offense or what’s holding us back. Hence it doesn’t make any sense.

[powderblueboy]

Sorry, you're missing the point. And since you don't understand organic from mechanical in how it's related to impact and results......let's just move on.

The point is that you contend Brady is unique in that he alone (& maybe one other mortal) could have lead that Tampa Bay team to the Super Bowl title.
You just happen to be wrong, and then attempted to muddy the waters with some inappropriate analogy.

Now, we can move on.