2022 Official Chargers Season Discussion

[Bolt4Knob]

Gotta have to gamble in first 2 rounds or pay good money for one in FA. We never really replaced Melvin Ingram's ability to get QB pressure.

I wanted them to sign Reddick last year
'
one year 8m is all he cost

they have the cap space - Telesco and Staley just need to work harder and scout better... there are good players out there - find them and its not necessarily signing a 33 year old Von Miller or Chandler Jones

[AK47]

I wanted them to sign Reddick last year
'
one year 8m is all he cost

How the heck we missed that one?

[21&500]

You gotta look for guys whose legacies are incomplete
under achieving guys who have a chance to shine in Staley's scheme and potentially win a ring.
Clowney is that guy
He's already been paid and written off as nothing special
but here he has a great chance to take less money and become a brand again.
Helps our runD on the edge and is able to contain pesky Mahomes in the pocket.
id be interested in having a conversation with him/agent.

Edit: You know what you're getting with JC and that's a theme in FA we need to prioritize.

[foreigner]

How the heck we missed that one?

Friendly reminder: Telesco.

[Bolt4Knob]

Great article from The Athletic and Sheil Kapada and I think Telesco does a few below 1) falls in love with players, hence trading up and now trading down 2) free agency is iffy but he uses the draft to fill needs thats for sure 3) overrates his ability to evaluate talent


A 10-step guide for NFL teams to avoid a disastrous offseason

Sheil Kapadia 5h ago 70
The new league year in the NFL begins March 16 at 4 p.m. ET. That’s when free agents can officially sign new contracts and trades can be finalized.

But player movement will begin well before then. Teams can agree on trade terms at any time. The window for using franchise tags is already open. Some players will be released to create salary cap space. And others will agree to contract extensions.

So how should teams approach the next two months before the draft? How can they steer clear of mistakes in free agency and avoid disastrous trades? There’s no GM handbook (at least that I know of). But below are a set of guidelines that teams should follow to set themselves up for success.
1. Prioritize offensive efficiency above all else


Of the 20 teams that have made the championship round in the last five years, 18 (90%) had an offense that finished in the top quartile (8th or better) in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. And 13 (65%) had an offense that finished in the top five.

If we look at those same 20 teams, just eight (40%) had a top-quartile defense. And six (30%) had a defense that finished in the top five.

So what’s the point? In the 2022 version of the NFL, defense matters, but offense matters more. Teams that acknowledge that simple truth will have an edge over teams that dismiss it.

There are always going to be exceptions, but if you don’t build an efficient offense, your chances for sustained success are going to drop significantly. And offensive efficiency carries over from one year to the next more often than defensive efficiency. If you have the right quarterback and/or the right play-caller and/or a brilliant scheme, you have a great chance to be in the mix for a prolonged period of time.

If you don’t have an efficient offense, your team-building decisions and resource allocation should be geared toward developing one.
2. Do not — under any circumstances — fall in love


Teams are almost never just one player away. It’s natural to look at one weakness from the previous season and convince yourself that if you address it you’re headed to the Super Bowl. But it’s rarely that simple. Players get older or injured, or their play declines. Coaching staffs experience turnover. Locker room dynamics change. Rivals improve.

This period on the NFL calendar can be intoxicating for general managers, owners and coaches. It feels like there are so many different ways to improve the roster. But it’s important to have an honest assessment of the state of your franchise before jumping into free agency or making a big trade.

And discipline matters. “Walk-away” numbers can help remove emotion and can keep impulses in check. The idea is to come up with pre-defined parameters for how far you’re willing to go to land a player — either in free agency or via trade. If the price goes beyond your pre-determined mark, move on.

It sounds so simple, but these are high-pressure environments, and every year we see teams act irrationally, fall in love and decide they have to have a specific player.

Don’t make the Godfather offer. The initial disappointment of not landing him will fade, and you’ll have other options to improve your roster.
3. Don’t confuse possible for probable


This can apply to a number of different areas. The first is injuries. If within the first 60 seconds of discussing a player, someone says “if he can stay healthy” you should proceed with caution. Injuries stink. Often they’re out of a player’s control. Football is a violent game. But that’s why durability matters — a lot. It’s perfectly fine to take fliers on players who have had injury issues. But the injury history has to be a major factor in determining the resources you’re willing to commit. If a player has missed 20 games because of injury over the past three seasons, and you’re paying him under the assumption that he’s going to stay healthy, more often than not, you’re going to get burned.

Another example is age. “Hey, how about the miracles of science? Rams left tackle Andrew Whitworth just started 15 games and played great at the age of 40.” That’s true. Whitworth is also just the third offensive lineman since the merger to start at least 10 games in a season while in his 40s. The same idea applies to quarterbacks. Tom Brady just played great at the age of 44. Aaron Rodgers delivered MVP seasons at 37 and 38. Does that mean we should abandon everything we thought we knew about quarterbacks’ aging curves? Of course not. We would need more data to do that. Instead, we should just view Brady and Rodgers as the exceptions.

There are so many other areas where we can apply this rule. Josh Allen had accuracy issues during his first two NFL seasons. In year three, he completed 69.2% of his passes, and he’s now one of the NFL’s best players. Do you know how many teams are going to convince themselves that their quarterback can do what Allen did? A lot! And that will likely prove to be a mistake. Allen is a great story, but he’s most likely an outlier.

Again, there are outcomes that are possible and outcomes that are probable. It’s important to recognize the difference and not make a series of decisions based on hoping for the exception.
4. Use free agency — not the draft — to fill needs


NFL GMs love to talk about how they don’t draft for need. Of course, that’s never 100% true. Take the Kansas City Chiefs, for example. Let’s say they have a quarterback at the top of their draft board when it’s their turn to pick. Will they take him? Of course not. They have Patrick Mahomes. That would be an absurd waste of resources.

But in theory, the “best player available over need” philosophy is sound. Needs can change year to year or even week to week with injuries. If you reach in the draft to fill a specific position, you’re more likely to make a mistake.

That’s one reason why free agency is useful. Free agency is — for the most part — about filling needs. You can target specific positions. You have more information on players than you do on prospects. There’s still uncertainty, but at least there’s less guess work than there is in the draft.

For most teams, the goal should be to fill needs before the draft. There are obviously exceptions. Some teams are in such bad shape that it would be impossible to reach that specific threshold. But still, it should be the goal.

Most of the time when coaches and GMs say something is “a good problem to have” they are lying. But in this case, it applies. Say you sign a veteran linebacker to a reasonable deal. Then the draft falls a certain way and you use a second-round pick on a linebacker. He comes in, looks great and wins the starting job. Good problem to have! There’s nothing wrong with that process.

Always allow for draft picks to surprise and make an immediate impact. But don’t count on it. Use free agency as a safety net.
5. Don’t use significant resources for competency at QB


The NFL is in a strange place right now. It’s easier than ever to find competency at quarterback. Yet competency at quarterback has never mattered less.

What do I mean? Take a look around the league. How many teams have a quarterback situation that’s so bad you feel like they have no chance of making the playoffs next year? It’s probably fewer than five. The supply and demand dynamics are different than they used to be. Circumstances matter. Put a mediocre (or even below average) QB in a good situation, and you can be competitive. Teams need to understand that and operate accordingly.

You should always be chasing a quarterback like Mahomes or Allen or Aaron Rodgers — someone who can lift up everyone around them and is pretty much going to guarantee you a playoff spot every year. Those guys aren’t common, but you could make the case that there are at least seven or eight currently in the league with that kind of upside. Gambling on quarterbacks with high ceilings usually can be justified because the upside of hitting is so valuable.

Having said that, if you don’t have one of those guys, you don’t just sit the season out. You look for someone competent who can buy you time. The key is you shouldn’t commit significant money or draft capital when doing so. The way the league is set up right now, you can find someone like Teddy Bridgewater or Gardner Minshew at a reasonable price. That’s much more preferable than coughing up $25 to $35 million per year and/or draft picks for a player who might have a higher floor but still has a relatively low ceiling. Moves like that aren’t going to get you very far anyway, and you’re probably going to end up regretting them.
6. Don’t mistake the Rams’ model for your model


There’s plenty to admire about the Rams’ approach. They were aggressive. They were unconventional. And they won the Super Bowl.

But if other teams look at the Rams’ model and think, “Hey that could be us … ” they’re probably going to end up being disappointed. Los Angeles had some significant advantages — the biggest being Sean McVay. Remember how we talked about offensive efficiency being king? McVay produced a top-10 offense three times in four seasons with Jared Goff as his quarterback. Because of that, it was reasonable to think that Matthew Stafford could take the Rams to another level and that the floor with Stafford was going to be relatively high.

The Rams also had a strong offensive line, Cooper Kupp and two of the best defensive players in football in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. Even with all those things, they won their final three playoff games by a total of nine points.

It would be a mistake to suddenly think that the Rams’ way is the “right” way to build a contender. If a team is going to take a swing on a quarterback like Stafford, it better have the infrastructure in place — from coaching to offensive line to weapons — to help that quarterback succeed. It better hope for the same kind of injury luck that the Rams had. It better be willing to stockpile (and hit) on mid-to-late round picks to account for not having first rounders.

There is no one right way to build a Super Bowl champion. Teams should take honest inventory of their strengths and weaknesses and avoid recency bias before chasing the Rams’ model.
7. Target coaches and GMs who might be desperate


It’s not hard to identify the teams that are under a lot of pressure in 2022. One would be the Carolina Panthers. Matt Rhule is 10-23 in two seasons as the head coach. Owner David Tepper is embarrassed and losing patience. They are desperate to find a quarterback.

Rhule has the power in Carolina, and he knows he probably needs to make the playoffs next season to keep his job. If you are the GM of another team, you should be calling the Panthers often. Maybe you can offload a veteran or two and acquire some draft capital. Maybe there’s a talented player on a rookie contract that Rhule no longer believes in, and you can swoop in and acquire him.

It’s not just the Panthers. There could be other teams. The Arizona Cardinals won 11 games last year, but with the way their season ended, they have to be feeling some urgency going into 2022.

Bottom line: Most coaches and GMs like their jobs and want to keep them. They will sometimes make decisions that prioritize job security over the long-term interests of their franchise. Identify those teams and try to find value.
8. Employ the two-minute rule


What’s the two-minute rule? Any time you’re thinking of adding a player, take yourself to the final two minutes of a one-possession game and ask yourself: Can he help you win? If the answer is no, you might want to think twice (depending on the level of investment) about adding him.

Last year, roughly 44% of all NFL games were decided by seven points or fewer. The margin for error is small. If you have high draft picks or expensive players on the sideline in crunch time, it’s probably going to cost you.

Who does this rule apply to? Running backs — specifically running backs who aren’t dynamic as pass-catchers or reliable as blockers. Run-stuffing defensive tackles who aren’t effective pass rushers. And off-ball linebackers who are liabilities in coverage.

I’m not saying you can’t have any of those players on your roster. The other 58 minutes of the game still count. But you should exercise caution and spend wisely when allocating resources to those types of players.
9. Honestly assess the abilities of your coaching staff


This can work both ways. There are the “more with less” coaches. Players always matter. But these coaches have shown an ability to create wholes that are greater than the sum of the parts. As far as head coaches go, Bill Belichick and Mike Tomlin fit the description. If we’re talking offensive schemers and play-callers, Andy Reid, McVay and Kyle Shanahan deserve a mention. Having one of these coaches is a huge advantage. It can help determine where you might be able to get by without investing significant resources.

On the other hand, misevaluating or overrating your coaching staff can lead to mistakes. A team might identify a player in a bad situation and think, “Once we get him in our building with our coaches, his talent is going to shine through.” That can be a great strategy if your coaching staff is really providing an edge with player development. The problem is that’s not always the case.

Coaches play a big role in making personnel moves look good or look bad. When making decisions, it’s important to not overrate what your staff is capable of.
10. Don’t overrate your ability to evaluate talent


Building a Super Bowl-caliber roster is hard. Embrace the uncertainty. There are so many variables that determine how a player from one team is going to perform on another team: coaching, injuries, scheme, etc. Any time you’re thinking about acquiring a player, ask yourself two questions.

One, why is the player’s previous team moving on? You are going to be at an information deficit compared to the player’s previous team. Aside from full-on rebuilds, organizations are not incentivized to move on from players who can help them win games.

Two, if this move fails, what will be the reason why? Basically, you’re preemptively carving out worst-case scenarios. This can be extremely useful and can help you better understand what needs to happen for the player to succeed.

Sure things don’t exist. Go into every move acknowledging that, and build in flexibility whenever possible in case things go awry.

[Velo]

Do you think the Colts would give up DeForest Buckner for this year's 1st round pick? The Colts are slotted to pick just before the Chargers in 2022, but they traded that pick to the Eagles for Wentz, so they have no 1st round pick. They gave up their 1st pick in 2020, No. 13 overall, to the 49ers for Buckner, then signed him to a 4-year $84 mil contract extension. His cap hits are $16 mil in 2022, $19.75 mil in 2023 and $20.25 mil in 2024.

[lightsout42]

An interesting analysis of Tom Telesco's tenure as GM:

https://youtu.be/NQu-jEtlQYM

[Bolt4Knob]

Do you think the Colts would give up DeForest Buckner for this year's 1st round pick? The Colts are slotted to pick just before the Chargers in 2022, but they traded that pick to the Eagles for Wentz, so they have no 1st round pick. They gave up their 1st pick in 2020, No. 13 overall, to the 49ers for Buckner, then signed him to a 4-year $84 mil contract extension. His cap hits are $16 mil in 2022, $19.75 mil in 2023 and $20.25 mil in 2024.

Interesting thing about his cap hits - very little dead money to the Colts. So, they can trade him and not face the cap hits other teams usually do

I don't think they would trade him as he is so valuable. I am not sure he fits the Staley scheme - that is for others to figure out

And though his cap numbers can be lowered -- the Chargers need more than one DeForest Buckner. Granted, if he fits the scheme, don't hate it

[equivocation]

8. Employ the two-minute rule


What’s the two-minute rule? Any time you’re thinking of adding a player, take yourself to the final two minutes of a one-possession game and ask yourself: Can he help you win? If the answer is no, you might want to think twice (depending on the level of investment) about adding him.

Last year, roughly 44% of all NFL games were decided by seven points or fewer. The margin for error is small. If you have high draft picks or expensive players on the sideline in crunch time, it’s probably going to cost you.

Who does this rule apply to? Running backs — specifically running backs who aren’t dynamic as pass-catchers or reliable as blockers. Run-stuffing defensive tackles who aren’t effective pass rushers. And off-ball linebackers who are liabilities in coverage.

I’m not saying you can’t have any of those players on your roster. The other 58 minutes of the game still count. But you should exercise caution and spend wisely when allocating resources to those types of players.

This is the #1 issue on this board.

[Velo]

Interesting thing about his cap hits - very little dead money to the Colts. So, they can trade him and not face the cap hits other teams usually do

I don't think they would trade him as he is so valuable. I am not sure he fits the Staley scheme - that is for others to figure out

And though his cap numbers can be lowered -- the Chargers need more than one DeForest Buckner. Granted, if he fits the scheme, don't hate it

I'm just throwing out ideas, with the thought the the draft often being such a crap shoot (Tillery for example) and no good DT prospects in the first round in this draft. The Rams are willing to give up their premium draft picks for proven players, and look where it got them. There are only two starting slots on the interior DL, so filling one of those with a player like Buckner would greatly impact the run defense IMO. But it's probably just fantasy, I don't think the Colts would give him up.

[Bolt4Knob]

I'm just throwing out ideas, with the thought the the draft often being such a crap shoot (Tillery for example) and no good DT prospects in the first round in this draft. The Rams are willing to give up their premium draft picks for proven players, and look where it got them. There are only two starting slots on the interior DL, so filling one of those with a player like Buckner would greatly impact the run defense IMO. But it's probably just fantasy, I don't think the Colts would give him up.

No, its a good thought as you are right. Granted the article I posted above says to not copy the Rams. But if you can get a player in their prime for a FRP - its not the worst idea. I doubt Telesco has the cajones to do something like that plus the cost to get Buckner from a salary standpoint

But the Chargers do need to upgrade IDL: at minimum, two players signed in free agency plus a draft pick. If you count Justin Jones as one player, thats one more to add next to him (not Akiem Hicks please!)

I still think in free agency the Chargers will address IDL and maybe Edge. That is taking into account they sign MW, Nwosu, Justin Jones and Kyzir White. If they don't bring one of those four back - they can use free agency to address. I still have SIX major signings

The draft I think will be for RT and CB plus RB

[blueman]

You gotta look for guys whose legacies are incomplete
under achieving guys who have a chance to shine in Staley's scheme and potentially win a ring.
Clowney is that guy
He's already been paid and written off as nothing special
but here he has a great chance to take less money and become a brand again.
Helps our runD on the edge and is able to contain pesky Mahomes in the pocket.
id be interested in having a conversation with him/agent.

Edit: You know what you're getting with JC and that's a theme in FA we need to prioritize.

That last statement is gold. And I can see Clowney being a fit, sure.