POLL: Will TT Pick Up Tillery's 5th Year Option?

[Xenos]

Here is my take: I think Tillery will have a sensational year for two reasons:
1) Contract year: With his option not picked up, he is in a contract year. If this does not motivate him, nothing will.
2) Start studded D': With the addition of Mack, Jackson, it will create additional opportunities for other members to shine, Tillery being one of them.

Watch him do really well on passing downs this year. Assuming he’s only on the field for that.

[blueman]

Watch him do really well on passing downs this year. Assuming he’s only on the field for that.

Even on the runs?

[Xenos]

Even on the runs?

Yes, even on the 3rd and 5+ yard runs lol.

[Guest]

For those who have just entered this thread:

Chaincrusher has expressed concern that teams will run on Tillery on passing downs; the inference being that the Chargers should never allow him to enter the game even then.

Xenos, countering, demanded that Chaincrusher furnish proof that teams actually have run successfully on the Chargers, with Tillery in the game,
on passing downs.

Chaincrusher, sensing a trap, pivoted skillfully away, employing his tried and true method of pretending not to understand the request - or reinterpreting it, and then ushered in an avalanche of paragraphs meant to bring Xenos to his knees, culminating in a further trashing of Tillery with a grab bag of stats.

Xenos, somehow able to weather the avalanche , attempted to redirect the conversation back to his original request: that of furnishing some type of proof that Tillery parts his hair on the left side as opposed to the right.

Stay tuned for Chaincrusher's next opening salvo of complete disdain for Xenos' position, followed by 10 meticulously worded paragraphs delineating the epic shadow that Tillery has cast over the entire franchise.:nod:

Your post is ridiculous.

I expressed a concern about Tillery as a run defender.

When asked for proof, I pointed out that I have watched all of Tillery's games and that my observations were supported by Tillery's absolutely abysmal run defending grades, which I cited. I further pointed out that Tillery was the worst run graded DL player on our team. I pointed out that our run defense was suspect to begin with and backed that with our season average of 4.6 YPC against in all formations, including those designed to stop running plays.

I stated the obvious by pointing out that when we are in nickel and dime on third and long, we do not defend the run as well as we do in other formations such as base and short yardage. That means that on average we give up more than 4.6 YPC against.

I noted that my specific concern with Tillery in the game on 3rd down and 10 or less, teams could frequently gash us for 7-8+ yards and possibly go for it on 4th down depending on field position. I stated the additional obvious point that if we average greater than 4.6 YPC against in nickel and dime, then some runs are going to be greater than that average, which are the runs I am talking about.

I pointed out that what Tillery gives us a pass rusher is very little above what one would expect from an unskilled pass rusher and that the specific difference is approximately two sacks per season. I made a comparison to Chris Jones and stated that it is not as if Tillery is giving us Chris Jones level production with at or near double digit sacks. In Tillery, we are talking about a pass rusher that barely gives us one sack every 4 games.

I further noted that Tillery does not typically push the pocket as a pass rusher. I pointed out that a pocket pushing pass rusher would work better with Bosa and Mack because the QB would not be able to step up with such a pass rusher, thereby enhancing sack totals for Bosa and Mack. I noted that it would be different if the pass rusher were someone like Chris Jones, meaning someone who generated double digit or near double digit sack totals every year.

Xenos admitted that "everyone knows" Tillery is a terrible run defender further validating my position. He ignored the evidence and focused his comments on some random 3rd and 5 nonsense about which I had made not a single comment in an apparent effort to shift the focus of the discussion since I had offered an avalanche of evidence to support my position.

I know you are a big Tillery homer, but this is ridiculous even for you even with your extreme bias.

[Guest]

This segment of The Powder Blues will return after this commercial break:

Jerry Tillery Highlights!!!!!

Well, it turns out that the joke is on us.

Did you actually watch the "highlights" that were less than a minute and a half of actual game footage? On one play, the NE RB drags him for several additional yards because Tillery is too weak to get the RB on the ground. On another, they show Tillery tripping up a runner who ends up gaining 5+ yards. On a third play, he is unblocked and fails to tackle the runner until he has already picked up three yards. On a QB run by Newton, he does stop Newton, but only after the NE OL has reestablished the line of scrimmage two yards down the field. These are his "highlights"?

Noticeably absent from the highlights is a single TFL on a running play. That's right, apart from his 3 sacks in 2020, Tillery did not have even one TFL in 747 snaps in 2020. This may have had something to with his 2020 run defense grade of 37.8.

[AK47]

Well, it turns out that the joke is on us.

Did you actually watch the "highlights" that were less than a minute and a half of actual game footage? On one play, the NE RB drags him for several additional yards because Tillery is too weak to get the RB on the ground. On another, they show Tillery tripping up a runner who ends up gaining 5+ yards. On a third play, he is unblocked and fails to tackle the runner until he has already picked up three yards. On a QB run by Newton, he does stop Newton, but only after the NE OL has reestablished the line of scrimmage two yards down the field. These are his "highlights"?

Noticeably absent from the highlights is a single TFL on a running play. That's right, apart from his 3 sacks in 2020, Tillery did not have even one TFL in 747 snaps in 2020. This may have had something to with his 2020 run defense grade of 37.8.

All I know is Tillery is probably having his real estate agent close on that New York condo. Since his 5th year option isn't picked up. We can probably wrap up this thread.

[Guest]

All I know is Tillery is probably having his real estate agent close on that New York condo. Since his 5th year option isn't picked up. We can probably wrap up this thread.

Is that where his post-NFL career is going to be?

[Xenos]

Your post is ridiculous.

I expressed a concern about Tillery as a run defender.

When asked for proof, I pointed out that I have watched all of Tillery's games and that my observations were supported by Tillery's absolutely abysmal run defending grades, which I cited. I further pointed out that Tillery was the worst run graded DL player on our team. I pointed out that our run defense was suspect to begin with and backed that with our season average of 4.6 YPC against in all formations, including those designed to stop running plays.

I stated the obvious by pointing out that when we are in nickel and dime on third and long, we do not defend the run as well as we do in other formations such as base and short yardage. That means that on average we give up more than 4.6 YPC against.

I noted that my specific concern with Tillery in the game on 3rd down and 10 or less, teams could frequently gash us for 7-8+ yards and possibly go for it on 4th down depending on field position. I stated the additional obvious point that if we average greater than 4.6 YPC against in nickel and dime, then some runs are going to be greater than that average, which are the runs I am talking about.

I pointed out that what Tillery gives us a pass rusher is very little above what one would expect from an unskilled pass rusher and that the specific difference is approximately two sacks per season. I made a comparison to Chris Jones and stated that it is not as if Tillery is giving us Chris Jones level production with at or near double digit sacks. In Tillery, we are talking about a pass rusher that barely gives us one sack every 4 games.

I further noted that Tillery does not typically push the pocket as a pass rusher. I pointed out that a pocket pushing pass rusher would work better with Bosa and Mack because the QB would not be able to step up with such a pass rusher, thereby enhancing sack totals for Bosa and Mack. I noted that it would be different if the pass rusher were someone like Chris Jones, meaning someone who generated double digit or near double digit sack totals every year.

Xenos admitted that "everyone knows" Tillery is a terrible run defender further validating my position. He ignored the evidence and focused his comments on some random 3rd and 5 nonsense about which I had made not a single comment in an apparent effort to shift the focus of the discussion since I had offered an avalanche of evidence to support my position.

I know you are a big Tillery homer, but this is ridiculous even for you even with your extreme bias.

For the last time since you have reading comprehension problems. Tillery being a bad run defender has nothing to do with using him exclusively on obvious passing downs. I used the 3rd and 5+ analogy because you stupidly believed that it needed to be at least 3rd and 11 yards for Tillery to be on the field.

https://www.thepowderblues.com/forum/forum/los-angeles-chargers-forum-nfl-forum-padres-forum/the-los-angeles-chargers-forum/1341559-poll-will-tt-pick-up-tillery-s-5th-year-option?p=1346229#post1346229

But the reality of the NFL is that most teams are not going to run on third down when it’s 5+ yards. And us giving up 4.6 ypc is an average and doesn’t take into account the downs and distance. Last year our third down defense sucked because we allowed third and short which led to runs on that down, or if we did hold a team to 3rd and long (5+ yards) we gave up a conversion through a blown coverage because of injuries to our DBs.

Having stout run defenders like Austin and Sebastian on the first two downs will allow us to play Tillery exclusively on third and 5+ yards to rush the passer which is his strength, while mitigating his bad run defense since teams are less likely to run in the scenario.

[Guest]

For the last time since you have reading comprehension problems. Tillery being a bad run defender has nothing to do with using him exclusively on obvious passing downs. I used the 3rd and 5+ analogy because you stupidly believed that it needed to be at least 3rd and 11 yards for Tillery to be on the field.

https://www.thepowderblues.com/forum/forum/los-angeles-chargers-forum-nfl-forum-padres-forum/the-los-angeles-chargers-forum/1341559-poll-will-tt-pick-up-tillery-s-5th-year-option?p=1346229#post1346229

But the reality of the NFL is that most teams are not going to run on third down when it’s 5+ yards. And us giving up 4.6 ypc is an average and doesn’t take into account the downs and distance. Last year our third down defense sucked because we allowed third and short which led to runs on that down, or if we did hold a team to 3rd and long (5+ yards) we gave up a conversion through a blown coverage because of injuries to our DBs.

Having stout run defenders like Austin and Sebastian on the first two downs will allow us to play Tillery exclusively on third and 5+ yards to rush the passer which is his strength, while mitigating his bad run defense since teams are less likely to run in the scenario.

You still do not get it. Tillery being a bad run defender compromises his ability to be used on passing downs unless the distance needed for a first down is very long.

Both of SJD and Johnson are not going to be on the field when we play nickel/dime on 3rd and long if we are using Tillery.

Also, SJD and Johnson are not exactly the second coming of Jamal Williams as run defenders either. The run defending improvement over Justin Jones and Linval Joseph is marginal. Your discussion of them as "stout run defenders" is incorrect. Johnson and SJD posted PFF run defending grades of 53.9 and 65.0, respectively (compared to 93.9 for Jamal Williams in 2007).

Beyond that, you seem to understand that 4.6 YPC against is an average, but you fail to account for how an average becomes an average. In order for the average to be an average, some of the runs are going to be longer than 4.6 YPC against. And the ability to break off longer runs is enhanced when we 1) play a formation that does not defend the run as well (nickel/dime) and 2) play our worst run defending DL player while also playing a reduced number (2) of interior DL players.

In those cases, opponents have a very good chance of getting a better gain that our average YPC against. Those 7-8+ yard gains that I have previously referenced become much more likely. The running game remains a viable option for our opponents, even on 3rd and long, especially if their field position is such that they could go for it on 4th down if the opponent picked up most, but not quite all of the yardage needed for a first down.

Creating this kind of potential option for opponents is just not worth the very, very little that Tillery adds as a pass rusher. People on this forum post as if Tillery is a good pass rusher. Let me dispel that myth right now. He is not. His PFF pass rush grade in 2021 was 53.4. Not good.

Your concept of using him as a designated pass rusher, when he is not a great pass rusher is unimpressive. In my view, what he adds in his own sacks (an extra two sacks over the course of an entire season over what one would expect from a completely unskilled pass rusher) would be at least fully offset by what a pocket pusher, something Tillery is not, would give us in in terms of setting up additional sacks for Bosa and Mack by preventing the QB from stepping up in the pocket.

Basically, in terms of net pass rush result, Tillery gives us nothing. And for that nothing, we get one of the worst run defending DL players in the NFL. That is why our defense absolutely played better last year when Fehoko played while Tillery was out and Fehoko is a complete scrub UDFA player (but one that happened to post a higher PFF run defending grade than Austin Johnson and much higher than Jerry Tillery).

[Xenos]

You still do not get it. Tillery being a bad run defender compromises his ability to be used on passing downs unless the distance needed for a first down is very long.

Both of SJD and Johnson are not going to be on the field when we play nickel/dime on 3rd and long if we are using Tillery.

Also, SJD and Johnson are not exactly the second coming of Jamal Williams as run defenders either. The run defending improvement over Justin Jones and Linval Joseph is marginal. Your discussion of them as "stout run defenders" is incorrect. Johnson and SJD posted PFF run defending grades of 53.9 and 65.0, respectively (compared to 93.9 for Jamal Williams in 2007).

Beyond that, you seem to understand that 4.6 YPC against is an average, but you fail to account for how an average becomes an average. In order for the average to be an average, some of the runs are going to be longer than 4.6 YPC against. And the ability to break off longer runs is enhanced when we 1) play a formation that does not defend the run as well (nickel/dime) and 2) play our worst run defending DL player while also playing a reduced number (2) of interior DL players.

In those cases, opponents have a very good chance of getting a better gain that our average YPC against. Those 7-8+ yard gains that I have previously referenced become much more likely. The running game remains a viable option for our opponents, even on 3rd and long, especially if their field position is such that they could go for it on 4th down if the opponent picked up most, but not quite all of the yardage needed for a first down.

Creating this kind of potential option for opponents is just not worth the very, very little that Tillery adds as a pass rusher. People on this forum post as if Tillery is a good pass rusher. Let me dispel that myth right now. He is not. His PFF pass rush grade in 2021 was 53.4. Not good.

Your concept of using him as a designated pass rusher, when he is not a great pass rusher is unimpressive. In my view, what he adds in his own sacks (an extra two sacks over the course of an entire season over what one would expect from a completely unskilled pass rusher) would be at least fully offset by what a pocket pusher, something Tillery is not, would give us in in terms of setting up additional sacks for Bosa and Mack by preventing the QB from stepping up in the pocket.

Basically, in terms of net pass rush result, Tillery gives us nothing. And for that nothing, we get one of the worst run defending DL players in the NFL. That is why our defense absolutely played better last year when Fehoko played while Tillery was out and Fehoko is a complete scrub UDFA player (but one that happened to post a higher PFF run defending grade than Austin Johnson and much higher than Jerry Tillery).

Prove to me that the distance has to be very long on 3rd down. Show me the breakdown otherwise you’re full of nonsense like usual.

[equivocation]

According to the sharpfootballstats.com database in 2021 teams ran on 3rd and long 13.2% of the time and were successful on 23% of runs. Teams were successful on 28% of passes.

[Xenos]

According to the sharpfootballstats.com database in 2021 teams ran on 3rd and long 13.2% of the time and were successful on 23% of runs. Teams were successful on 28% of passes.

Does this site have further breakdown like the distance on 3rd down and which team was on defense?