Justin Herbert - Bolts Franchise QB Official Discussion

[dmac_bolt]

You weren't paying attention during the 2012 season, clearly.

The Baltimore Ravens' defense you're praising was old in 2012. Ray Lewis retired after that season and Ed Reed was released. The defense and special teams gave up 35 to Denver in the Divisional Round, and the defense alone gave up 29 to the 49ers in the Super Bowl. That pales in comparison to the Giants' defenses in 2007 and 2011 never giving up more than 20 in the playoffs while going up against Jeff Garcia, Tony Romo, Brett Favre, Tom Brady (twice), Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, and Alex Smith. That's four MVP quarterbacks--and three first-ballot Hall of Famers who will many will have in their top ten or 15 for quarterbacks of all time. In fact, the Giants' defense gave up 20 points only once during the 2007 and 2011 playoffs, in a 37-20 win over the Packers (the only time Eli led the offense to more than 24 points in his entire postseason career).

Flacco threw three touchdown passes each in the 2011 Divisional Round, AFC Championship Game, and Super Bowl. Two years later Flacco took the Ravens to the Divisional Round and threw four touchdown passes against the Patriots, the Super Bowl champs that year, in a 35-31 loss. Flacco in his playoff career has 25 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions, and played in three conference championship games, one of which was during his rookie year, and another in the 2011 season, in which his wide receiver, Lee Evans, dropped what should have been a game-winning touchdown pass against the Patriots, followed by the Ravens' kicker missing a short field goal that would have tied it and sent it to overtime.

But, yeah, Flacco sucks and Eli, who led the Giants' offense to 19 and 17 points in his Super Bowl wins and had 18 touchdown passes and nine interceptions in his postseason career, was the main reason the Giants won those Super Bowls, and his exorbitant contract had nothing to with the Giants missing the playoffs seven out of the last eight years of his career? It was all Tom Coughlin's and Jerry Reese's fault when Eli was throwing 17 touchdown passes and 28 interceptions in 2013? OK, got it.

What about Russell Wilson winning only one playoff game and never getting back to a Super Bowl after he signed his second contract in 2014? Aaron Rodgers failing to get back to the Super since 2010? Still not answering these questions. I wonder why.

Derek Carr is so much better than many other teams' starting quarterbacks, yet he couldn't throw for more than 307 yards in any of his 15 games this season, something Jarrett Stidham (who can only get a starting job in the USFL or XFL) exceeded in his first start? How does that work?

As far as Mahomes' contract goes, his cap number was very low in 2020, when they reached his second Super Bowl. He currently has the highest cap hit percentage, at 17.2, and is playing against a team that has much better personnel along both sides of the line and many other areas. You put Mahomes on the Eagles and the betting lines will be much more in favor of the Eagles. Currently the Eagles are favored by 1.5, when they have they the much inferior quarterback and far less experienced head coach. Why is that?

Flacco had a good run of several seasons (was it 4?) where he put up solid top quartile starter performance, and Flacco did later seemingly turn completely to shit and a horrible awful coach-killing starting QB. Both statements are true why are you two fighting about which one is right?

Eli sucked - luckiest little prick to ever win 2 SBs, amiright?

[gzubeck]

Flacco had a good run of several seasons (was it 4?) where he put up solid top quartile starter performance, and Flacco did later seemingly turn completely to shit and a horrible awful coach-killing starting QB. Both statements are true why are you two fighting about which one is right?

Eli sucked - luckiest little prick to ever win 2 SBs, amiright?

I would take Ten Years of Good Luck plus Herbert!

[richpjr]

Interesting to think we still control Herbert for 4 more years of "reasonable" money:

Burrow, Herbert, Hurts poised to sign major extensions, but what will deals look like?

Jeff Howe
Feb 28, 2023

INDIANAPOLIS — The check’s on the table for the 2020 quarterback class.

Four teams have compelling decisions to make this offseason with their QBs on rookie deals: Pay them now to keep them happy and perhaps save some money down the line or continue to maximize the value of their budget salaries. So what will they do?

“That’s the billion-dollar question,” one NFL personnel executive observed.

While it might seem like an easy solution for the Bengals with Joe Burrow and the Chargers with Justin Herbert — and maybe even with the Eagles and Jalen Hurts — it still takes two sides to strike a deal. Now more than ever, quarterbacks recognize they’re a business entity unto themselves, so they don’t necessarily need to rush into the big payday as much as they might have been inclined to do even a few years ago.

The money isn’t going anywhere.

“The reality is these guys aren’t taking hometown discounts anymore, and I wouldn’t either,” said an assistant coach, who along with other league officials in this story, was granted anonymity so that he could speak freely. “I’d know if I (continue to play well), I can just wait a year and get more money. They’ve gotten so expensive at that position, honestly, the money you’d save isn’t that much anymore.”

Burrow, Herbert, Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa are all eligible for contract extensions this offseason for the first time in their careers. As first-round draft picks in 2020, Burrow, Herbert and Tagovailoa have one year remaining on their deals plus a fifth-year option in 2024, so their teams have plenty of time. Hurts doesn’t have the fifth-year option because he was a second-round pick, so his contract expires after the 2023 season. Of course, the franchise tag remains in play for all.

Those financial elements are crucial from a negotiating standpoint. Based on projections from Over The Cap, Burrow and Herbert are in line for fifth-year options worth $29.504 million, while Tagovailoa’s will be worth $23.171 million. (Tagovailoa’s will increase to $29.504 million if he’s on the initial Pro Bowl roster next season, while Burrow and Herbert would be projected to earn $32.416 million if they become second-time Pro Bowlers.)

If the franchise tag continues to rise in value by $3 million annually — a rough estimate based on the past two years — it’d be worth $35.5 million for Hurts in 2024 and $38.5 million for the others in 2025. A second consecutive tag increases in value by 120 percent, which would project at $42.6 million for Hurts in 2025 and $46.2 million for the others in 2026.

Burrow is already on the books for $5.545 million in 2023, so the parameters of his negotiations would open with $119.749 million guaranteed over four years, factoring in his current salary, the fifth-year option and two franchise tags. Using the same model, it’d be $118.438 million for Herbert and $112.609 million for Tagovailoa. Hurts’ deal would require $82.304 million guaranteed through three years.

If roughly 65 percent of the contracts are guaranteed — a fair approximation for all deals outside of Deshaun Watson’s unique and fully guaranteed pact — that’d put Burrow and Herbert around $180 million in total dollars, Tagovailoa at $170 million and Hurts at $125 million.

And presumably, that’s just the launching point. The contracts will almost certainly exceed those projections.

The teams have already factored these numbers into their budgets, so they’re equipped to go year to year if necessary, as the Ravens have been doing with< Lamar Jackson. However, they also know it can be beneficial to get a head start on discussions.

“It depends if you identify that person as a franchise quarterback or not,” another executive said. “If it’s Tua, I’m going to wait. If it’s Herbert or Burrow, it probably behooves you to engage earlier. Otherwise, the price is going to go up. If they have good representation and you’re immediately eligible after three years, you have year four, the fifth-year option and two tags, so there is some leverage on the club side.

“I’m sure you can reach some compromise. A negotiation by definition is a series of compromises. It’s realistic of an expectation. A fourth year, fifth-year option and tag-tag is a four-year deal right there. I don’t think you have to wait from a cap standpoint of continuing to build your roster. You do have to forecast a little bit, but at least in the first year of that extension, you’re still going to be able to manage it cap-wise.”

The Dolphins might be in more of a holding pattern with their negotiations due to Tagovailoa’s medical concerns. Tagovailoa enjoyed a breakout 2022 campaign and was an MVP candidate midway through the season before he was shut down following a series of concussions. From a business standpoint, especially when dealing with franchise-quarterback money, it probably makes the most sense to extend the evaluation period on Tagovailoa.

Burrow and Herbert were drafted to be franchise quarterbacks, and they’ve delivered from the start. But there’s something interesting to consider with each.

Burrow tore his ACL as a rookie, and Herbert played through fractured rib cartilage last season. Typically, players are motivated to sign early to take advantage of the guaranteed money and mitigate the risk of an injury, but that might not be the case anymore.

“This is a generality, but this is how I kind of read this,” the first executive began. “These guys feel indestructible like, ‘If I’m that f—ing good, it doesn’t matter if I tear my ACL, because I’ll be back in 10 months, and I’ll still be the same quarterback.’ Five or 10 years ago, it just felt like guys were more about getting paid right now because, ‘What if I get hurt?’ The quarterbacks and agents now are more savvy in the business of the NFL and where the financials are heading compared to the previous core guys.

“The guys who are really good are probably more willing to bet on themselves and wait to get the right deal just because they know everything is going up. They see the popularity of the league. They see the financials with the cap and the TV deals. There’s no way ever the quarterback salaries are going down.”

Case in point: Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott suffered a gruesome ankle injury in 2020 and signed a four-year, $160 million extension in 2021. Career-derailing injuries aren’t as much of a concern as they used to be due to advances in medical work and rule changes that protect quarterbacks more than ever.

Plus, quarterbacks are well aware of the exploding market. Matt Ryan became the first quarterback in history to sign a deal worth $30 million annually in 2018. Within about two years, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Prescott signed contracts in excess of $40 million annually.

Just last offseason, Aaron Rodgers ($50.27 million annually), Russell Wilson ($49 million), Kyler Murray ($46.1 million) and Watson ($46 million) all surpassed Mahomes’ $45 million benchmark. Nearly every new deal makes the previous one obsolete, potentially raising the question of when Mahomes will decide to rework his contract.

Five years ago, Ryan recalibrated the entire market. Now, a quarterback making $30 million annually would be the 12th highest-paid player at the position. It’s not inconceivable, with the skyrocketing salary cap, to think the same will be said about the $50 million mark in another five years.

“You’re trying to gauge whether you can save money by doing it a year ahead,” the coach said. “I think there’s more value (for the team) if you’re willing to go through your rookie deal like the Ravens have with Lamar, and if we can’t do a deal, we’ll franchise you and then just have to pay the big money later. At that point, the cap has gone up. We’ve hopefully had more success and production while you’re cheaper.

“If you can try to negotiate through the fifth year while they’re still cheaper, you can say you’ll franchise them for the sixth year. At least you get six years of reasonable money. Even the franchise at that point is one year of expensive money. I don’t think Burrow or those guys are going to say they’d sign a year early and save you some money. Those guys are smart. They look at all of the other contracts and know they’re getting paid.”

So the back-and-forth will surely start this offseason for Burrow, Herbert and Hurts, while Tagovailoa would conceivably do better to prove his production is sustainable post-injury. As the market shows, good quarterbacks will get paid regardless, so they’ve got time on their side.

The relationships between the quarterbacks and teams appear to be sustainable for the long haul, and the deals are inevitable. The impending contracts indicate the marriages are off to resounding successes.

“If you have a guy in the, say, ‘A’ category — you’d put Burrow and Herbert in there, maybe Hurts — you try to get ahead of it, because the price is only going up,” the first executive said. “I wouldn’t personally worry too much about squeezing out another year (on the rookie deal). The counterbalance to that is you have to cut a bunch of guys. Well yeah, but if you don’t and you wait another year, the price might be another $10 million a year. You don’t know.

“Is there cost certainty around $45 million? Yes. With the cap going up, is it reasonable if the guy is good enough, which those guys are, then the answer is, yes. You try to get him happy paying him early and hopefully getting a little bit of a win on the structure, so it doesn’t totally prohibit you from doing a couple other things year to year with the rest of your team.”

[dmac_bolt]

Interesting to think we still control Herbert for 4 more years of "reasonable" money:

That post you commented on was a lot of words for me to read without dozing off, but he is right that just in terms of dollars it would be cheaper to use the option and tag years as that will definitely be less than the next superstar QB contract. A LT contract allows them to backload the cap hit, kick the can and all that. But in just absolute dollars, his contract will be more than those values.

sorry, I’m still laughing at the dollars given to Wilson and Murray … give me a minute

[gzubeck]

Interesting to think we still control Herbert for 4 more years of "reasonable" money:

They are going to need a salary cap just for the QB position pretty soon. Maybe like 20% of entire teams payroll for each season?

[Maniaque 6]

In two years, how much the francise tag will cost for a QB ?

[richpjr]

In two years, how much the francise tag will cost for a QB ?

Less than what he'd get paid in a market setting contract. Having said that, I fully expect they get him signed.

[Maniaque 6]

It's about 32 millions $

[dmac_bolt]

Herbie is The Golden God. Just reposting in case anyone forgets…

[chargeroo]

Herbie is The Golden God. Just reposting in case anyone forgets…

But if we cut him, we can save a lot of salary cap misery. Heck, we could add three other QB's to replace him and have money left over for that speedy WR people want.

[Lefty2SLO]

But if we cut him, we can save a lot of salary cap misery. Heck, we could add three other QB's to replace him and have money left over for that speedy WR people want.

Humor is the best defense against despair . . . . .

[powderblueboy]

But if we cut him, we can save a lot of salary cap misery. Heck, we could add three other QB's to replace him and have money left over for that speedy WR people want.

You mean trade him for a 1rst & 2nd rounder to a quarterback needy team.

Two firsts & two 2nds would make many here giddy!