Justin Herbert - Bolts Franchise QB Official Discussion

[Velo]

Justin Herbert is 5th in total passing yardage, with 2927 yds through 10 games. Mahomes leads the league with 3,200, but he's played 11 games. Herbert is 4th in yds per game, 293, slightly topping Mahomes there. Herbert is 4th in TD passes with 22. Brady leads the league with 29; Mahomes is 2nd with 25, but again he's played one more game than the other top 5 QBs.

Herbert is a top 5 QB in the league now, no matter what his critics on this forum say about him.

[Steve]

Data supporting inconsistency claim
Week QBR
1 --- 43.8
2 --- 44.0
3 --- 79.9
4 --- 74.7
5 --- 87.4
6 --- 17.7
8 --- 19.4
9 --- 94.0
10 -- 54.5
11 -- 84.6
Season 67.0

So, evaluating by QBR (yes, I know there is more to the game than one stat, but it is about avoiding unconscious bias)
Out of 10 games, ONE mediocre game, week 10, 2 bad games, weeks 1 and 2, 2 horrible games weeks 6 and 8, and 5 outstanding games.

That is a VERY VERY disparate set of data, only 3 out of 10 are in the 20-70 range!!!!!!! 2 games below 20, and 5 games over 70!


That's what I mean by inconsistent.

Statistics are DESCRIPTIVE, not PREDICTIVE. They tell you the story of WHAT happened, NOT WHAT WILL HAPPEN.

Herbert had a great game in part because he had the time to do what he does best. He was going back and then was able to just react to the field. He had the time to really make decisions and extend plays. The inconsistency is the same thing that happens to most inconsistent offenses, the OL has struggled through a good part of the season, and you see it in Herbert's (and the WR and RB stats). Herbert has been playing well even when his QBR is lower, but not as well. On the lower QBR games, Herbert is getting rid of the ball, living for play, play after play, and then making some isolated big plays. Pretty much what Rivers had to do. It's the same old story, only Herbert is a better QB than Rivers and can make some bigger throws, but as far as the team around either one, neither has a great team, and both QB are (were) carrying their teams.

Herbert is somewhat inconsistent. It's not (completely) his fault. Everyone else needs to do their jobs better. When our WR has the time to get downfield and Ekeler has the room to catch the ball underneath and room to get going as a runner, then our O is great.


By the way QBR is a BULLSHIT STAT. There is no such thing as a PROPRIETARY statistic. ESPN can stuff QBR up their ass unless you know what it really means, and you cannot do that unless you know how it is calculated. Use some real stats and stop this nonsense with made-up numbers.

[Velo]

By the way QBR is a BULLSHIT STAT. There is no such thing as a PROPRIETARY statistic. ESPN can stuff QBR up their ass unless you know what it really means, and you cannot do that unless you know how it is calculated. Use some real stats and stop this nonsense with made-up numbers.

The poster uses Herbert's QBR to try to bring him down, not realizing that Herbert's QBR of 67.0 is actually the 2nd best in the league. Which is why I don't take anything said poster writes seriously.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

[ghost]

Gentlemen, this team is almost top 10 in series conversion rate, in the last 20 years.

[Boltjolt]

Gentlemen, this team is almost top 10 in series conversion rate, in the last 20 years.

That cant be, i keep reading that Lombardi needs to be fired.


Just wait when everybody has this system down!

[ghost]

Justin Herbert - Eclipses 7,000 yards passing in his 25th start.

[JustAnotherFan]

The poster uses Herbert's QBR to try to bring him down, not realizing that Herbert's QBR of 67.0 is actually the 2nd best in the league. Which is why I don't take anything said poster writes seriously.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

I think you are not reading my 2 posts carefully.
I used QBR to show how much better Herbert is compared to Tua and Burrow.
I used QBR to show that Herbert is 2nd in the league as a QB, which is INSANE for a 2nd year QB.

Since I like to be balanced, I searched inside my self for a valid criticism, I came up with inconsistency.

Somebody else said they did not think he was inconsistent.
So I made a second post, WITH DATA, to show that yes, he is inconsistent.

P.S.
To those who responded with reasons WHY he is inconsistent...
On a certain level, it does not matter.
If Herbert is to rise to the level we want him to, he has to overcome those things.
He really needs to get more consistent.

[Velo]

I think you are not reading my 2 posts carefully.
I used QBR to show how much better Herbert is compared to Tua and Burrow.
I used QBR to show that Herbert is 2nd in the league as a QB, which is INSANE for a 2nd year QB.

Since I like to be balanced, I searched inside my self for a valid criticism, I came up with inconsistency.

Somebody else said they did not think he was inconsistent.
So I made a second post, WITH DATA, to show that yes, he is inconsistent.

P.S.
To those who responded with reasons WHY he is inconsistent...
On a certain level, it does not matter.
If Herbert is to rise to the level we want him to, he has to overcome those things.
He really needs to get more consistent.

First, I thought you were another poster, and the remarks I made about not taking posts seriously do not apply to you. Apologies.

Second, the type of inconsistency you point out is to be expected from a young QB. There are always going to be growing pains, so IMO it's not even worth grousing about. Even veteran elite QBs have games where they don't play well. Reference Patrick Mahomes earlier this season. Even the GOAT Tom Brady has had some stinkers this season. He threw two INTs in a loss to the powerhouse WFT a few weeks ago. So hyper-focusing on the games Herbert, a 23-year-old with 25 starts - has not played up to the incredibly high standards that he set comes off as nit-picking, not "valid criticism."

[Velo]

That cant be, i keep reading that Lombardi needs to be fired.


Just wait when everybody has this system down!

My hope is that Lombardi can learn and grow as a coordinator, to become better at his job and learn to adapt to the talent he has at his disposal. If he is able to that, he is going to be fine, and successful.

[Xenos]

Obviously Herbert is quite dumb according to a certain poster lol. But all kidding aside, the kid is slowly getting better each and every game mentally. His processing will be up there eventually. And when it does, watch out!

[AKFlyFisher]

Justin Herbert is 5th in total passing yardage, with 2927 yds through 10 games. Mahomes leads the league with 3,200, but he's played 11 games. Herbert is 4th in yds per game, 293, slightly topping Mahomes there. Herbert is 4th in TD passes with 22. Brady leads the league with 29; Mahomes is 2nd with 25, but again he's played one more game than the other top 5 QBs.

Herbert is a top 5 QB in the league now, no matter what his critics on this forum say about him.

Except these are all gross numbers. He is third in the league in pass attempts, which should translate to those high gross numbers. The more instructive numbers are completion percentage -- i.e. a measure of accuracy (others will assert is skewed by drops) -- and QB ratings of some fashion.

Herbert has a completion percentage of 66.2 percent -- up 1.1 percent after Sunday night. He ranks 17th in completion percentage, behind Tannehill, Tua, and others. Herbert's QB rating -- the classic rating I remember first seeing on the back of a football card -- is 12th in the league at 98.4 -- which is almost identical to his rating from last year. Herbert's net yards per pass is 12th in the league at 6.8 yards.

As fans, we can be selective and ignore QBR and focus only on those areas where Herbert is top 5 in the league. But selectivity doesn't render a complete or accurate analysis. I think that creates unrealistic expectations. His completion percentage, his general QB ratings -- which I think are tied to processing -- must go up to be top 5. I think Drew Brees said it best the other morning, in that Herbert has all of the gifts and he is showing real growth in how he thinks about the game. Brees also commented that it is the mental side -- wanting to take on the problem solving challenges presented by defenses -- that becomes important. Herbert proved inadequate in several games this year on the mental side. But his last game -- against a depleted defense -- certainly proved that he is starting to see it better. Whether that happens consistently is the key, and next up is the Broncos.

Also, I am reminded that someone made the comment that Herbert's game on Sunday night was the greatest by a Charger QB in 20 years. While Herbert had a good game, this week is the 4 year anniversary of Rivers' Thanksgiving Day game in Dallas in 2017. Rivers' game was legendary: 27 - 33, 434 yards and 3 touchdowns. He had a passer rating of 149.1. Check it out here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uapOEYuX7Q

Rivers' accuracy was bonkers that day.

Lastly, I won't be posting here anymore and won't be reading posts anymore (no more lurking!). I apologize to the fans and in particular to the moderators for any problems I created (if there is a way to delete my account, I defer to you -- I consent to that and have been unable to find a way to do it the last few days). I've been a fan since the early 1990s (I'll never forget going to a wedding as a kiddo and having a pocket TV with me to watch a preseason game), and frankly at the end of the day, unintentionally generating animosity is still generating animosity and I don't like doing it. All the best to everyone and have a wonderful holidays.

[Bolt-O]

Accounts don't get deleted. You are always welcome to come back, unless you do get banned.

[Boltjolt]

Except these are all gross numbers. He is third in the league in pass attempts, which should translate to those high gross numbers. The more instructive numbers are completion percentage -- i.e. a measure of accuracy (others will assert is skewed by drops) -- and QB ratings of some fashion.

Herbert has a completion percentage of 66.2 percent -- up 1.1 percent after Sunday night. He ranks 17th in completion percentage, behind Tannehill, Tua, and others. Herbert's QB rating -- the classic rating I remember first seeing on the back of a football card -- is 12th in the league at 98.4 -- which is almost identical to his rating from last year. Herbert's net yards per pass is 12th in the league at 6.8 yards.

As fans, we can be selective and ignore QBR and focus only on those areas where Herbert is top 5 in the league. But selectivity doesn't render a complete or accurate analysis. I think that creates unrealistic expectations. His completion percentage, his general QB ratings -- which I think are tied to processing -- must go up to be top 5. I think Drew Brees said it best the other morning, in that Herbert has all of the gifts and he is showing real growth in how he thinks about the game. Brees also commented that it is the mental side -- wanting to take on the problem solving challenges presented by defenses -- that becomes important. Herbert proved inadequate in several games this year on the mental side. But his last game -- against a depleted defense -- certainly proved that he is starting to see it better. Whether that happens consistently is the key, and next up is the Broncos.

Also, I am reminded that someone made the comment that Herbert's game on Sunday night was the greatest by a Charger QB in 20 years. While Herbert had a good game, this week is the 4 year anniversary of Rivers' Thanksgiving Day game in Dallas in 2017. Rivers' game was legendary: 27 - 33, 434 yards and 3 touchdowns. He had a passer rating of 149.1. Check it out here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uapOEYuX7Q

Rivers' accuracy was bonkers that day.

Lastly, I won't be posting here anymore and won't be reading posts anymore (no more lurking!). I apologize to the fans and in particular to the moderators for any problems I created (if there is a way to delete my account, I defer to you -- I consent to that and have been unable to find a way to do it the last few days). I've been a fan since the early 1990s (I'll never forget going to a wedding as a kiddo and having a pocket TV with me to watch a preseason game), and frankly at the end of the day, unintentionally generating animosity is still generating animosity and I don't like doing it. All the best to everyone and have a wonderful holidays.

You didnt create problems but you have zero cred id assume with some here. Its zero w/ me. Again, its just you act like he has been in the league for years and he only has 25 starts....and doing some great things. Yes he is going to have a bad game here and there.

They all do, even seasoned vets....Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Rivers, etc...all of them.

But i wish you well and Happy Hollidays.