2020 Chargers Re-draft

[powderblueboy]

Simmons, by himself, is worth Herbert and Murray combined--actually almost dead on based upon where the players should have been drafted. That we also could have two additional first round values made what we did just that much worse.

Further, Taylor is better than Gordon. He would have given us a more powerful runner with some speed. It would have been a nice fit. Jones is this year's Keenan Allen--a good player that unexpectedly falls a full round or more below where he should be drafted based upon quirks in team draft boards. It is not that teams valued him as a third round player, but rather when they went to draft in round two, teams found players they rated higher still on the board.

And, just to be clear, if we had traded out of #6 for picks #18 and #26 and had taken Herbert and Murray with picks #18 and #26, I would have had zero issue with that as the value would have been there.

In that scenario, we still would have been drafting Taylor at #37 and Jones at #71.

Simmons, by himself, is not worth as much to the Chargers as the Cardinals. Players go to teams, not draft slots.
In a base D, Simmons is a safety. Chargers already have James - they aren't hurting there.

As for Jones, he's a 3rd round talent. He went where he should have gone. Every GM passed on him twice.
Seven GMs, in need of shoring up the Oline, didn't even consider him a 3rd round talent. That Spud Melkin from
Draft Ace had him going in the first is irrelevant.

[Guest]

Simmons, by himself, is not worth as much to the Chargers as the Cardinals. Players go to teams, not draft slots.
In a base D, Simmons is a safety. Chargers already have James - they aren't hurting there.

As for Jones, he's a 3rd round talent. He went where he should have gone. Every GM passed on him twice.
Seven GMs, in need of shoring up the Oline, didn't even consider him a 3rd round talent. That Spud Melkin from
Draft Ace had him going in the first is irrelevant.

Okay, as gently as I can point this out, I think you might be missing a few things.

First, if you have Bosa and Ingram and Chase Young is on the board, you take Chase Young because he is the best player in the draft. Simmons is the second best player in the draft, so if he is on the board and Young is not on the board, you take him. His upside is actually better than James' upside was entering the NFL. If I had to play Simmons at James' position, I would likely ultimately end up starting him over James. Thankfully, I would not have to do that.

Instead, James and Simmons both would have been on the field and would not have been playing the same position. Simmons would have started at WILL in our base defense. The guy is 6'4" and 238 pounds. I know that might get lost with his sub-4.4 40 and his ability cover WRs much less TEs, but he has some size to him and very good hips for that size. He is just a freak of an athlete.

Further, that both James and Simmons can play so many positions would have, with just a little creativity, driven opponents nuts. There would have been a synergistic effect with Simmons combining with James that would have been difficult to play against, especially when trying to keep track of the other top defenders. Basically, we blew the chance to make the defense something special and it is the defense that will be leading the charge for us for the immediate future.

Regarding your views on Jones, you write as if only some obscure big board had Jones rated as a first round player. Just to help you get the idea of what the general consensus was regarding the players being discussed, here is how some of the more known pundits had the players ranked:

CBS: Simmons #3, Jones #17, Herbert #18, Murray #22, and Taylor #31.
Drafttek: Simmons #3, Herbert #12, Murray #26, Jones #28, and Taylor #41.
Sporting News: Simmons #2, Murray #21, Herbert #22, Jones #29, and Taylor #39.
Sports Illustrated: Simmons #4, Herbert #20, Murray #21, Taylor #29 and Jones #30.
Matt Miller: Simmons #4, Murray #19, Herbert #27, Taylor #30 and Jones #33.
Mel Kiper: Simmons #4, Herbert #9, Murray #18, Taylor #35 and Jones #40.

The range for Simmons is from #2 to #4 overall. The average of the ranks is 2.83.
The range for Herbert is from #9 to #27 overall. The average of the ranks is 18.
The range for Murray is from #18 to #26 overall. The average of the ranks is 21.17.
The range for Jones is from #17 to #40 overall. The average of the ranks is 29.50.
The range for Taylor is from #29 to #41 overall. The average of the ranks is 34.50.

Right away we can see that Simmons is ranked far higher than Herbert and the others because he is a much better player. Right away we can see that the consensus is that Jones is a first round talent and that Taylor is a solid early second round talent. Based upon consensus of rank and chart value, Simmons by himself is worth slightly more than Herbert and Murray combined.

GMs do get it wrong so any type of discussion that because the GMs did it, that is the true value of the player is just absurd. Our GM likely did get it wrong by passing on Simmons and compounded the error by trading up to get Murray when there was gretaer value to be had by not doing so (Taylor and Jones combined are worth more than Murray).

[like54ninjas]

Okay, as gently as I can point this out, I think you might be missing a few things.

First, if you have Bosa and Ingram and Chase Young is on the board, you take Chase Young because he is the best player in the draft. Simmons is the second best player in the draft, so if he is on the board and Young is not on the board, you take him. His upside is actually better than James' upside was entering the NFL. If I had to play Simmons at James' position, I would likely ultimately end up starting him over James. Thankfully, I would not have to do that.

Instead, James and Simmons both would have been on the field and would not have been playing the same position. Simmons would have started at WILL in our base defense. The guy is 6'4" and 238 pounds. I know that might get lost with his sub-4.4 40 and his ability cover WRs much less TEs, but he has some size to him and very good hips for that size. He is just a freak of an athlete.

Further, that both James and Simmons can play so many positions would have, with just a little creativity, driven opponents nuts. There would have been a synergistic effect with Simmons combining with James that would have been difficult to play against, especially when trying to keep track of the other top defenders. Basically, we blew the chance to make the defense something special and it is the defense that will be leading the charge for us for the immediate future.

Regarding your views on Jones, you write as if only some obscure big board had Jones rated as a first round player. Just to help you get the idea of what the general consensus was regarding the players being discussed, here is how some of the more known pundits had the players ranked:

CBS: Simmons #3, Jones #17, Herbert #18, Murray #22, and Taylor #31.
Drafttek: Simmons #3, Herbert #12, Murray #26, Jones #28, and Taylor #41.
Sporting News: Simmons #2, Murray #21, Herbert #22, Jones #29, and Taylor #39.
Sports Illustrated: Simmons #4, Herbert #20, Murray #21, Taylor #29 and Jones #30.
Matt Miller: Simmons #4, Murray #19, Herbert #27, Taylor #30 and Jones #33.
Mel Kiper: Simmons #4, Herbert #9, Murray #18, Taylor #35 and Jones #40.

The range for Simmons is from #2 to #4 overall. The average of the ranks is 2.83.
The range for Herbert is from #9 to #27 overall. The average of the ranks is 18.
The range for Murray is from #18 to #26 overall. The average of the ranks is 21.17.
The range for Jones is from #17 to #40 overall. The average of the ranks is 29.50.
The range for Taylor is from #29 to #41 overall. The average of the ranks is 34.50.

Right away we can see that Simmons is ranked far higher than Herbert and the others because he is a much better player. Right away we can see that the consensus is that Jones is a first round talent and that Taylor is a solid early second round talent. Based upon consensus of rank and chart value, Simmons by himself is worth slightly more than Herbert and Murray combined.

GMs do get it wrong so any type of discussion that because the GMs did it, that is the true value of the player is just absurd. Our GM likely did get it wrong by passing on Simmons and compounded the error by trading up to get Murray when there was gretaer value to be had by not doing so (Taylor and Jones combined are worth more than Murray).

While I agree with most everything you state but team boards are vastly different than the amateur draftniks employed by media outlets.
So Jones (any player) may have been ranked higher by amateurs but not by the professionals making decisions.
Jones is a third round talent because that is his draft slot.
Will Jones, Taylor, etc outplay their draft position? Maybe. Will Herbert or Murray? Maybe
I had Simmons as the #1 overall prospect and if up to me he is the pick. I didn’t grade QBs and stated I’ll trust our brain trust when we do.
Murray was my #9 overall prospect and an BEAST of a consolation prize, imv.

[chris9341]

post #30, you stated,
Originally posted by chris9341 View Post
Although there is the other option we could have drafted Simmons and then tank this up coming in the hopes of drafting Trevor Lawrence.

LMAO you're like the fake news where you only put one tiny part of what I say in there and take it out of context of what I was trying to say. Because if you would have actually read the entire thing you would have seen that I also said I wasn't a fan of tanking and i don't think anyone here is either. I'll explain what I was trying to get a cross when I said we could have drafted Simmons and no where did I say that if we drafted Simmons that we would tank our season and if you thought that then your reading comprehension isn't that good. Anyways the point I was trying to make was that if we took Simmons in order for us to get Lawrence or hell even Fields we would have to almost tank our season something that I am not a fan of and I also said I don't think anyone here is either. So in other words if we didn't get our QB this year then we would have been in the same situation next year and there's only two ways your getting Lawrence or Fields and that is to just really suck or tank your season maybe not intentionally but we don't know how Tyrod Taylor is going to do as QB. Just to clarify I am not a fan of my team tanking which if you would have read my entire statement of what I originally said you would know that.

[powderblueboy]

Okay, as gently as I can point this out, I think you might be missing a few things.

First, if you have Bosa and Ingram and Chase Young is on the board, you take Chase Young because he is the best player in the draft. Simmons is the second best player in the draft, so if he is on the board and Young is not on the board, you take him. His upside is actually better than James' upside was entering the NFL. If I had to play Simmons at James' position, I would likely ultimately end up starting him over James. Thankfully, I would not have to do that.

Instead, James and Simmons both would have been on the field and would not have been playing the same position. Simmons would have started at WILL in our base defense. The guy is 6'4" and 238 pounds. I know that might get lost with his sub-4.4 40 and his ability cover WRs much less TEs, but he has some size to him and very good hips for that size. He is just a freak of an athlete.

Further, that both James and Simmons can play so many positions would have, with just a little creativity, driven opponents nuts. There would have been a synergistic effect with Simmons combining with James that would have been difficult to play against, especially when trying to keep track of the other top defenders. Basically, we blew the chance to make the defense something special and it is the defense that will be leading the charge for us for the immediate future.

Regarding your views on Jones, you write as if only some obscure big board had Jones rated as a first round player. Just to help you get the idea of what the general consensus was regarding the players being discussed, here is how some of the more known pundits had the players ranked:

CBS: Simmons #3, Jones #17, Herbert #18, Murray #22, and Taylor #31.
Drafttek: Simmons #3, Herbert #12, Murray #26, Jones #28, and Taylor #41.
Sporting News: Simmons #2, Murray #21, Herbert #22, Jones #29, and Taylor #39.
Sports Illustrated: Simmons #4, Herbert #20, Murray #21, Taylor #29 and Jones #30.
Matt Miller: Simmons #4, Murray #19, Herbert #27, Taylor #30 and Jones #33.
Mel Kiper: Simmons #4, Herbert #9, Murray #18, Taylor #35 and Jones #40.

The range for Simmons is from #2 to #4 overall. The average of the ranks is 2.83.
The range for Herbert is from #9 to #27 overall. The average of the ranks is 18.
The range for Murray is from #18 to #26 overall. The average of the ranks is 21.17.
The range for Jones is from #17 to #40 overall. The average of the ranks is 29.50.
The range for Taylor is from #29 to #41 overall. The average of the ranks is 34.50.

Right away we can see that Simmons is ranked far higher than Herbert and the others because he is a much better player. Right away we can see that the consensus is that Jones is a first round talent and that Taylor is a solid early second round talent. Based upon consensus of rank and chart value, Simmons by himself is worth slightly more than Herbert and Murray combined.

GMs do get it wrong so any type of discussion that because the GMs did it, that is the true value of the player is just absurd. Our GM likely did get it wrong by passing on Simmons and compounded the error by trading up to get Murray when there was gretaer value to be had by not doing so (Taylor and Jones combined are worth more than Murray).

Where do i begin?

First of all, Mel Kiper, Matt Miller, et al., are single individuals assessing a draft: not entire scouting departments. Their takes are entertaining, and sometimes informative, but no single franchise in the NFL uses any of these lists in ranking players. It's telling that nobody traded up to take advantage of Josh Jones 'falling' on draft day. A first round quality OT makes it to the 3rd round and nobody trades up? Please stop torturing yourself in believing Telesco allowed pure gold to slip through his fingers. You constantly seem to drift off into this reverie that a few 'experts' in the media have established the definitive rankings and all GMs must abide by their judgments. Personally, i didn't think much of Josh Jones and didn't understand the fuss.

Secondly, Tom Telesco & the Chargers also had a ranking system. I'm fairly certain Telesco didn't have the averaged ranking system of the cumulative media outlets on his lap as a secondary resource on draft day. His rankings seem to have gone...

1. Joe Burrow
2. Chase Young
3. Andrew Thomas
4. Isaiah Simmons
5. Tua T.
6. Justin Herbert

He probably ranked Simmons above Herbert, but felt that a QB has greater value than a safety/will. Go figure! He certainly didn't consider Herbert a reach. If other teams, already with incumbent quarterbacks, rated Herbert lower, that's immaterial. If you personally have a different ranking system, then your complaint is duly noted. Don't feel offended if others don't share your sense of loss. Once again, you draft players to fit into your team, not to collect ranking points so that the media will declare you a draft day winner. If simmons turns out to be Troy Polamalu & Herbert blows, than Telesco failed.

[Guest]

While I agree with most everything you state but team boards are vastly different than the amateur draftniks employed by media outlets.
So Jones (any player) may have been ranked higher by amateurs but not by the professionals making decisions.
Jones is a third round talent because that is his draft slot.
Will Jones, Taylor, etc outplay their draft position? Maybe. Will Herbert or Murray? Maybe
I had Simmons as the #1 overall prospect and if up to me he is the pick. I didn’t grade QBs and stated I’ll trust our brain trust when we do.
Murray was my #9 overall prospect and an BEAST of a consolation prize, imv.

That is one explanation for a faller in the draft. Another is that a higher level prospect gets passed over by teams because even though they have the player in question rated higher than the draft slot being selected, they have yet another player rated even higher than the player in question.

Just because actual teams passed a player over does not mean that that player is rightfully a third round talent. GMs get it wrong a lot. We could talk about Telesco's third round history with gems such as Watt, Mager, Tuerk, Feeney and Pipkins. And just as Telesco appears to have gotten those picks wrong in terms of overvaluing the player's ability, so too is it possible for GMs to undervalue a player's ability.

If it were one or two analysts that had Jones as a late first round or early second round pick, then I could see there being more debate. But in this case, the vast majority had Jones as a late first round pick or early second round pick. That type of consensus is trustworthy in my view absent an unknown medical or non-football issue.

I do not agree with any sort of view that essentially suggests, "Well, that's where they drafted him, so that is his value." That amounts to calling NFL GMs infallible and that is ridiculous. There is such a thing as a "good value pick" which is defined as a pick that appears to carry greater value than the draft slot in which the player was selected.

My point is that this year's draft fell perfectly for us in that we could have had three such good value picks in rounds one through three if we had just done the smart thing and taken Simmons and not traded for Murray.

[Guest]

Where do i begin?

First of all, Mel Kiper, Matt Miller, et al., are single individuals assessing a draft: not entire scouting departments. Their takes are entertaining, and sometimes informative, but no single franchise in the NFL uses any of these lists in ranking players. It's telling that nobody traded up to take advantage of Josh Jones 'falling' on draft day. A first round quality OT makes it to the 3rd round and nobody trades up? Please stop torturing yourself in believing Telesco allowed pure gold to slip through his fingers. You constantly seem to drift off into this reverie that a few 'experts' in the media have established the definitive rankings and all GMs must abide by their judgments. Personally, i didn't think much of Josh Jones and didn't understand the fuss.

Secondly, Tom Telesco & the Chargers also had a ranking system. I'm fairly certain Telesco didn't have the averaged ranking system of the cumulative media outlets on his lap as a secondary resource on draft day. His rankings seem to have gone...

1. Joe Burrow
2. Chase Young
3. Andrew Thomas
4. Isaiah Simmons
5. Tua T.
6. Justin Herbert

He probably ranked Simmons above Herbert, but felt that a QB has greater value than a safety/will. Go figure! He certainly didn't consider Herbert a reach. If other teams, already with incumbent quarterbacks, rated Herbert lower, that's immaterial. If you personally have a different ranking system, then your complaint is duly noted. Don't feel offended if others don't share your sense of loss. Once again, you draft players to fit into your team, not to collect ranking points so that the media will declare you a draft day winner. If simmons turns out to be Troy Polamalu & Herbert blows, than Telesco failed.

Again, your take that because Telesco went with his ranking system, that somehow validates his choices is absurd. Telesco has had some draft hits, but also some draft misses like every other GM.

The consensus that stands against him suggests that he is wrong in the absence of other evidence until he is proven so by the actual player results. That is likely not so much of an if as it is a when in this case.

I mean, he could have drafted K.J. Hill in the first round with Simmons on the board and it would be the same point, just a little more obvious. But, of course, you would be saying, "Well, he went with his board and Hill was the right team fit because that is how he valued it and Telesco has a scouting department and media analysts are just entertainers."

As for my "duly noted" complaint, the whole point of the discussion and thread is that many of us think that Telesco left a lot of meat on the NFL draft bone in this year's draft. That thinking might have something to do with the fact that he did.

[Guest]

LMAO you're like the fake news where you only put one tiny part of what I say in there and take it out of context of what I was trying to say. Because if you would have actually read the entire thing you would have seen that I also said I wasn't a fan of tanking and i don't think anyone here is either. I'll explain what I was trying to get a cross when I said we could have drafted Simmons and no where did I say that if we drafted Simmons that we would tank our season and if you thought that then your reading comprehension isn't that good. Anyways the point I was trying to make was that if we took Simmons in order for us to get Lawrence or hell even Fields we would have to almost tank our season something that I am not a fan of and I also said I don't think anyone here is either. So in other words if we didn't get our QB this year then we would have been in the same situation next year and there's only two ways your getting Lawrence or Fields and that is to just really suck or tank your season maybe not intentionally but we don't know how Tyrod Taylor is going to do as QB. Just to clarify I am not a fan of my team tanking which if you would have read my entire statement of what I originally said you would know that.

Your original statement that I quoted can be read as suggesting that taking Simmons somehow lends itself to tanking whereas taking Herbert would not. My point was that, if anything, I would reverse that. The team is a virtual lock to be worse in 2020 by taking Herbert and not Simmons.

Also, if we have the #1 pick in next year's draft, we should, of course, take Lawrence notwithstanding the fact that we took Herbert in this year's draft.

[21&500]

Your original statement that I quoted can be read as suggesting that taking Simmons somehow lends itself to tanking whereas taking Herbert would not. My point was that, if anything, I would reverse that. The team is a virtual lock to be worse in 2020 by taking Herbert and not Simmons.

Also, if we have the #1 pick in next year's draft, we should, of course, take Lawrence notwithstanding the fact that we took Herbert in this year's draft.

Oh man, that would be something.
id definitely do it and they are very similar players imo.

We can always trade one of them to the Browns for multiple 1sts, manzel--I mean Baker should bust by then.

[Boltjolt]

That is one explanation for a faller in the draft. Another is that a higher level prospect gets passed over by teams because even though they have the player in question rated higher than the draft slot being selected, they have yet another player rated even higher than the player in question.

Just because actual teams passed a player over does not mean that that player is rightfully a third round talent. GMs get it wrong a lot. We could talk about Telesco's third round history with gems such as Watt, Mager, Tuerk, Feeney and Pipkins. And just as Telesco appears to have gotten those picks wrong in terms of overvaluing the player's ability, so too is it possible for GMs to undervalue a player's ability.

If it were one or two analysts that had Jones as a late first round or early second round pick, then I could see there being more debate. But in this case, the vast majority had Jones as a late first round pick or early second round pick. That type of consensus is trustworthy in my view absent an unknown medical or non-football issue.

I do not agree with any sort of view that essentially suggests, "Well, that's where they drafted him, so that is his value." That amounts to calling NFL GMs infallible and that is ridiculous. There is such a thing as a "good value pick" which is defined as a pick that appears to carry greater value than the draft slot in which the player was selected.

My point is that this year's draft fell perfectly for us in that we could have had three such good value picks in rounds one through three if we had just done the smart thing and taken Simmons and not traded for Murray.

So do draftniks. Mel Kiper is considered a draftnik....I guess but he is no scout. Nobody has hired him to be a scout for them and some have even asked....who the hell is Mel Kiper when he rips teams picks.

Actually I think NFL Draft scout is the only site that is run by any NFL people. It used to be anyways.

GMs do get it wrong a lot, but they are the ones picking so they matter the most and if all 32 are passing multiple times on Jones....maybe there is something to it? They have scouting teams.

I don't get worked up about it and just hope who we drafted work out.

[Panamamike]

Oh man, that would be something.
id definitely do it and they are very similar players imo.

We can always trade one of them to the Browns for multiple 1sts, manzel--I mean Baker should bust by then.

Why? Fields is a better QB imo.

[21&500]

Why? Fields is a better QB imo.

Sure. You get the point.