2021 Draft Discussion - Bolts Pick 13th

[Boltnut]

No offense to Mr. Insdorf, the article's author, but trading our first and second and next year's first round pick to move up from #13 overall to #7 overall is unbalanced and, frankly, would be idiotic for us to consider. His article assumes that that would be the cost of such a trade, but that is a huge departure from the draft pick trading chart.

Here is a trade that is very nearly perfectly balanced on the NFL trading points chart.

DET trades us 1-7, 3-72 and 4-112, which is exactly 1800 points.

We trade to DET 1-13, 2-47, 3-77 and 6-185, which is 1800.8 points.

The trade is balanced and while trading away our second round pick, we actually move up 5 spots in round 3 and get a 4th round pick, while only adding a 6th round pick back.

The difference between #13 and #7 is only 350 points to begin with, which is the value of the #55 overall pick, so there is no way that that warrants surrendering an extra first round pick in addition to a second rounder that comes before pick #55.

If DET says give us next year's first round pick, we should tell them to go screw themselves.

Yeah, I get the trade chart and agree that the author's trade is not balanced. But he did give evidence of prior (actual) trades that were unbalanced.
Maybe it's because these trades were into the top-10....? I don't know. What I do know is that when teams are trading up, they are generally desperate/motivated.
Personally, I don't think we have to have a "generational" OT. I think we need a good one, though. Not a 3rd round development. Someone ready to go Day 1. Our short-windowed run for a Super Bowl starts 2 weeks from now. Next year's draft may complete this team... I don't want to surrender the key (next year's 1st rounder...?) to a SB run.

[Guest]

Popper explains why the draft value chart does not apply for trades in the 1st round, and provides the most recent example:

“When discussing and evaluating trades in the later rounds, they typically align, to a degree, with the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart made famous by the Cowboys coach in the early 1990s. But those values can more or less be thrown out the window when you analyze trading up in the first round. The prices are higher because demand is higher and the team with the better pick holds pretty much all the leverage.

The trade value chart has changed over the last 30 years as the league has changed. More teams are using analytics in all facets of their decision-making. The league added compensatory picks for teams who lose players in free agency. The rookie wage scale was implemented in the 2012 CBA, significantly shrinking the contracts awarded to draft picks. All these trends and alterations impacted how teams value draft picks.

When moving up in the first round, though, a team is almost always going to overpay. That is the nature of the game. And we have a recent example to use for guidance. The Dolphins traded out of the No. 3 spot with the 49ers to No. 12. Miami then traded that No. 12 pick, No. 123 in the fourth round and a 2022 first-round pick to the Eagles for No. 6 and No. 156 in the fifth round.”

I simply disagree that the team trading back holds all of the leverage. I think that fails to appreciate that team's situation. If the team cannot get the player that they want anyway by trading back, then they will not be open to trading back. If they are open, then that indicates they think they can trade back and still get what they want. Otherwise, they will not consider it. What they get if they are trading back properly is extra draft pick value for nothing (if they have determined that they are very likely going to get the player they want anyway). If they want that benefit, then they have to do even trades based upon the trade value chart.

To be clear, had I been Miami's GM I would have traded back to #12 from #3, but I would not have traded up to #6. I would have kept the full value of the fleecing of the 49ers.

There is a simple answer to teams that ask for too much and that answer is "NO!"

[equivocation]

Trade ups involving QBs are expensive. I think the only reason MIA gave up that much for 6 was what they just got for 3.

A third this year or second next year should get to 10 and maybe 8. Not what I'd do, but giving up multiple top 2 picks to move up to 7 is silly.

[Guest]

If Penei falls to 7 we certainly should go after him.....(honestly i'm fine with trading down to 4 to ensure we get him). IMHO he is plug and play and by a good margin the best LT in the draft. Shoot, him and Herb together again? Aside from the past connection there (Staley is all about relationships) How much would that help us develop a fan base and perhaps even a player pipeline in Oregon? Our RB's will be able to run, The Dime Lord will have lots of time to throw those deep ones...heck i think Kelly will flourish with some blocking and a head coach that isn't going to traumatize him for a couple of mistakes (one of which was just bad luck,IMO). I've ran alot of mocks and i can't help but feel the extra picks don't make up for the value lost between Penei and the next tackle. We've finally got a QB who is GOLD, let's get the matching LT. Thanks for having me here guys, Chargers were my first live NFL game in 90 (NASNI 90-94) and been a fan ever since!

Glad to see new posters!

I was curious about what I bolded. Fouts is in the Hall of Fame. Rivers should be in the Hall of Fame in 5 years. We have had a bunch of gold at the QB position over the years.

[Topcat]

I simply disagree that the team trading back holds all of the leverage. I think that fails to appreciate that team's situation. If the team cannot get the player that they want anyway by trading back, then they will not be open to trading back. If they are open, then that indicates they think they can trade back and still get what they want. Otherwise, they will not consider it. What they get if they are trading back properly is extra draft pick value for nothing (if they have determined that they are very likely going to get the player they want anyway). If they want that benefit, then they have to do even trades based upon the trade value chart.

To be clear, had I been Miami's GM I would have traded back to #12 from #3, but I would not have traded up to #6. I would have kept the full value of the fleecing of the 49ers.

There is a simple answer to teams that ask for too much and that answer is "NO!"

The chart is a rough guide, but it cannot take into consideration other variables such as supply and demand, especially at certain key positions such as QB, OT, EDGE and CB, bidding wars, and what a team will do for their targeted player.

[Guest]

Trade ups involving QBs are expensive. I think the only reason MIA gave up that much for 6 was what they just got for 3.

A third this year or second next year should get to 10 and maybe 8. Not what I'd do, but giving up multiple top 2 picks to move up to 7 is silly.

I was thinking the same thing. We know MIA is not trading up for a QB, but they just got two extra first round picks, so I could see them being a little bit more free and easy with their pick. As I stated, I would not have traded back up under PHI's offer had I been MIA's GM. I think it is a solid guess that they are positioning for Pitts, but I do wonder what they are planning to do with Gesicki (2 TE looks?), who they drafted in round 2 of the 2018 draft.

[GetBolted]

I loved Rivers...his talent and toughness are legend...Herbie has the emotional intelligence to go along with those virtues to hopefully take us to the next step....maybe i should have said "we finally have a QB that is platinum" Thank you for the kind welcome!

[Guest]

The chart is a rough guide, but it cannot take into consideration other variables such as supply and demand, especially at certain key positions such as QB, OT, EDGE and CB, bidding wars, and what a team will do for their targeted player.

I guess my point is that if I am trying to trade up, I am not interested in bidding war. Somebody else is welcome to overpay.

[Critty]

Sorry my Wooded friend, I'm on the Darrisaw Train now. I've surrendered to the "long-arm" of the law...

I'll still take the beer...

I think Darrisaw could struggle to pass protect as he seem to lack some awareness at times and then he also had too many low effort snaps.

Think there are some mid rd prospects that could be great value.

Christensen is one of the safer prospects even if he doesn't offer the upside of some of these other prospects.

And then Hudson is new to the position and plays with mean streak. Think he has quite a bit of upside.

[powderblueboy]

:anchorjump::anchorjump:

You know shit, if that is your conclusion? Cosmi is definitely not a Norton or Pipkins, he is a moving, expanding pocket for Herbert LT. Did you somehow miss, fairly a lot of scouts have “NFL pundits have said” his 36 reps on bench press, tying Teven Jenkins? Don’t sleep on him brother, for he is impaler with immense upside. Your pigeon holing guys who are, or should be top 10 picks. Remember, it’s a process, time will decide. I’m not advocating Chargers select him #13 I’m advocating taking him later in trade back, adding a pick to be used to trade up earlier and grab corner. Follow me. Anything and I mean anything is an improvement @ LT, but Herbert doesn’t have to have Sewell, but would be nice, but what cost? He needs edge protection now, Center has been officially called off limits, next piece of the puzzle.

Bench presses are not functional strength; but yeah, you can see Cosmi moving defensive ends with his upper body.
I've come around a bit with Cosmi.

[Boltnut]

I think Darrisaw could struggle to pass protect as he seem to lack some awareness at times and then he also had too many low effort snaps.

Think there are some mid rd prospects that could be great value.

Christensen is one of the safer prospects even if he doesn't offer the upside of some of these other prospects.

And then Hudson is new to the position and plays with mean streak. Think he has quite a bit of upside.

I get that the "low effort" plays are a concern. But his "longer" arms are ideal for pass blocking. And VT was a great running team... especially running to his gap. With pros surrounding him (and expectations higher) I would be surprised to see "low effort" from him in the NFL. His length and power can not be ignored. He has better balance than almost any prospect.

I'm not sold on a majority of the 2nd round prospects... especially considering all of the T-Rex armed prospects. Christensen (32 1/4 inch arms) is probably a guard in the NFL. The only "long armed" prospects (Spencer Brown and D'Ante Smith) are projects. Hudson is both a project and shorter arms (33 inches)...

[Boltnut]

1st OT Darrisaw

2nd CB/S
3rd CB/S
3rd Edge
4th-7th Depth, depth, and more depth.

This way, you complete you OL overhaul, protect Herbert, and get Staley the pieces to build his defense.