2021 Draft Discussion - Bolts Pick 13th

[Charge!]

It proves you don't have to have 34" arms to succeed at LT because there is more to playing LT than using your arms. Feet matter a lot as well imo.
There are other OTs that aren't optimal height or have long arms succeeding while slow footed long arm taller guys have failed.

Just like you thinking a QB has to have a rocket arm, dozens of other QBs that don't have one have proved otherwise

Ive heard multiple OL experts such as Gil Brandt and others say that arm length is a huge issue for most OL trying to play OT, especially LT.... because best pass rushers are usually coming from that side and that side is usually the blind side for most QB's..... They also question Slater as an OT.....

True that there are some rare exceptions and one thing I have noticed about the exceptions it the rare exceptions are those whose every other skill and characteristic is off the charts. Their other skills make up for the shortness of their arms..... the reason longer arms is important is that the player with the longer arms has control and can hold......keeping the shorter armed player from grabbing him...... more important in pass blocking than run blocking..... this difference is more important than a rocket arm for a QB..... though if 2 QB's are smart and insanely accurate and one has a stronger arm, the stronger armed QB can reach more places on the field forcing defenses to cover more area,.,... also ball gets to receiver quicker...... and ball can be squeezed into tighter windows....

Most of the exceptions are HOFers or future HOFers..... question is, are these shorter armed OT's so exceptional that they can overcome that deficiency? Most say Sewell yes.... most experts go either way on Slater....... and most think AVT is best as an OG in NFL..... Many of the other OT's like Carmen(he said teams are telling him he may end up being a guard) are also going to end up being OG's.....

Ive read a number of people say that Chargers could use an all pro at OT or at OG so they would take Slater (if Sewell is gone) and try him at LT but if it does not work out, he will likely be an all pro at Guard..... so at least we fill a need for now and future with a great player.... so at least if he is not a flop like Fluker then we won't be hurting ourselves if we take Slater even if LT does not work out.....is Slater one of those exceptions? .......and what does coaching staff think of Pipkins???

[wu-dai clan]

Sewell and Jenkins tape show solid technical skills in displacing a longer limbed defender’s hand/arm from body contact. This allows them to control the vast majority of reps regardless of the opponents length advantage along with their overall size, athleticism, and grip strength.
This technical flaw is Little’s main issue in passpro. He released 3 different training clips and showed on his proday that this has been a focus.
All 3 have the skillset to be highly successful NFL OTs.

Another factor we don’t talk about enough when concerning Oline play is domination blocks.
Allowing JH10 3.5+ seconds, pancakes, 5+ yard drive blocks, combo to second level seal blocks, 2 defenders wash/combo blocks, open field movement block on 2nd/3rd level defender.
These are chunk play igniters and late game soul takers.

Good football post.

I would like to add a different point.

Often on running plays, it is a chip or glancing strike that springs big plays. This is where playing wide not narrow, technique, angles, vision, lateral mobility, the like, come into focus.

To repeat Greg Cosell's comments, OTs are transitioning towards athleticism and away from pass pro sets.

Let's see how many of these short armed offensive linemen turn out to be ok.

Find potential value picks by not pigeonholing these guys with archaic metrics in a changing NFL.

[like54ninjas]

Good football post.

I would like to add a different point.

Often on running plays, it is a chip or glancing strike that springs big plays. This is where playing wide not narrow, technique, angles, vision, lateral mobility, the like, come into focus.

To repeat Greg Cosell's comments, OTs are transitioning towards athleticism and away from pass pro sets.

Let's see how many of these short armed offensive linemen turn out to be ok.

Find potential value picks by not pigeonholing these guys with archaic metrics in a changing NFL.

I think the combo of length and athleticism is the new evolving requirement as well as size.
Teams are looking for 6’4” - 6”8”, 315#-335#, long limbed/wingspan, with the athleticism of a late 90’s/early2000’s TE movement skills.
These traits are needed to counter these big, long, athletic freaks coming out on the defensive front.
Always exceptions to a rule but the profile has changed and will continue to.
I like several of the day 3 OT prospects to develop over a Storm Norton.

[Guest]

It proves you don't have to have 34" arms to succeed at LT because there is more to playing LT than using your arms. Feet matter a lot as well imo.
There are other OTs that aren't optimal height or have long arms succeeding while slow footed long arm taller guys have failed.

Just like you thinking a QB has to have a rocket arm, dozens of other QBs that don't have one have proved otherwise

I agree that there are examples of players that did not quite have 34" arms that could play LT effectively. But they stand out because in many cases that lack of arm length is meaningful.

Also, I thought Herbert would be better than Burrow and Tagovailoa because he is smarter and more physically gifted and it really was not even close when Herbert represented a strong armed QB and the others possessed weak to low average arm strength. So far, I am looking very good on that call. Less gifted players can succeed, but I am not prioritizing in such a way to take the less gifted player when it comes to the parts of the game that cannot be coached.

So if you are aware of a negative trait, that needs to be factored into the draft analysis. AVT has the shortest arm length of any non-center OL draft candidate in this entire draft class. That is not just a no for LT, that is a "hello no". Maybe AVT can play LT in the NFL after all, but when the player is nowhere close to the desired metric, I am not going to assume that everything will work out fine if we draft him to play LT. IMO, that is stupid draft strategy, kind of like trading up to draft a physically challenged Manti Te'o.

Give me someone that has succeeded in college and has the measurables that are predictive of success, or, as in the case of Sewell, give me a strong reason why the deficiency will not matter that much. And do not give me an OT candidate that is short, light and has short arms. Even if he can play OT in the NFL, I sure as hell do not want to gamble a first round pick when that much risk of crash and burn at OT is being presented.

Again, such players will get drafted and may work out fine, but choosing riskier players is generally not the best draft strategy with your first round draft pick. We can live with solid and good, but not great. We cannot have a bust at OT. There is always some risk of bust, but the goal is to minimize that risk to the extent possible so that you are assured of having a useful player.

[wu-dai clan]

I have seen Jesse bates as the comp for Moehrig. Nowhere have a I seen Moehrig as a top 15 draft candidate. He is usually listed as a bottom half of the first round pick. The team could consider him in trading back in, but I would rather have one of the top CBs in that scenario (if we do not take one at #13).

Simmons as selected with a 3C pick by Denver. Of course, I would take Moehrig if he were available at that point, but that seems about 100% not likely to happen.

I believe the issue is that I value Moehrig more Staley's defense than others. He has definitely shot up boards from round two to #20, even #17.

Minkah is a better comp than Bates IMV. He was selected #11 overall and has been All Pro the last two seasons !!

Also, I prolly value MDavis more than yourself. There are midround corners I like. We need two. That area of need is right there with OL.

[wu-dai clan]

I think the combo of length and athleticism is the new evolving requirement as well as size.
Teams are looking for 6’4” - 6”8”, 315#-335#, long limbed/wingspan, with the athleticism of a late 90’s/early2000’s TE movement skills.
These traits are needed to counter these big, long, athletic freaks coming out on the defensive front.
Always exceptions to a rule but the profile has changed and will continue to.
I like several of the day 3 OT prospects to develop over a Storm Norton.

I am not getting the lack of love for your guy Little. He looks excellent in his workouts lately. The tape is quite impressive.

For me, @#47 or @#77.

[like54ninjas]

I agree that there are examples of players that did not quite have 34" arms that could play LT effectively. But they stand out because in many cases that lack of arm length is meaningful.

Also, I thought Herbert would be better than Burrow and Tagovailoa because he is smarter and more physically gifted and it really was not even close when Herbert represented a strong armed QB and the others possessed weak to low average arm strength. So far, I am looking very good on that call. Less gifted players can succeed, but I am not prioritizing in such a way to take the less gifted player when it comes to the parts of the game that cannot be coached.

So if you are aware of a negative trait, that needs to be factored into the draft analysis. AVT has the shortest arm length of any non-center OL draft candidate in this entire draft class. That is not just a no for LT, that is a "hello no". Maybe AVT can play LT in the NFL after all, but when the player is nowhere close to the desired metric, I am not going to assume that everything will work out fine of we draft him to play LT. IMO, that is stupid draft strategy, kind of like trading up to draft a physically challenged Manti Te'o.

Give me someone that has succeeded in college and has the measurables that are predictive of success, or, as in the case of Sewell, give me a strong reason why the deficiency will not matter that much. And do not give me an OT candidate that is short, light and has short arms. Even if he can play OT in the NFL, I sure as hell do not want to gamble a first round pick when that much risk of crash and burn at OT is being presented.

Again, such players will get drafted and may work out fine, but choosing riskier players is generally not the best draft strategy with your first round draft pick. We can live with solid and good, but not great. We cannot have a bust at OT. There is always some risk of bust, but the goal is to minimize that risk to the extent possible so that you are assured of having a useful player.

Very well said.

[like54ninjas]

I am not getting the lack of love for your guy Little. He looks excellent in his workouts lately. The tape is quite impressive.

For me, @#47 or @#77.

Without game tape for 2 seasons (less 1 game), will he fall from where is talent, tape, performance, and POTENTIAL/projection should predicate.

[Stinky Wizzleteats+]

That misses the point. All other things being equal, the longer armed boxer has the advantage. Reach is a desired trait in boxing.

How long are Mike Tyson's arms? He did ok... How long are Melvin Ingram's arms? (At the risk of bringing up an old debate.) It's more important how the arms are used. Bossa is hugely successful because of how he uses what he has not because he has 33" arms...

[wu-dai clan]

Without game tape for 2 seasons (less 1 game), will he fall from where is talent, tape, performance, and POTENTIAL/projection should predicate.

I could go Farley/Little 1-2.

wu is a value shopper.

Assess the risk.
Consider the talent level.
Perfect fit re PON.

[Guest]

You haven't proved anything except that you love to argue and act like your opinions and conjecture are facts.

I get that 34 or more is ideal. And there are great left tackles that have those prototype traits. no doubt. And that is the nfl trend to want those arm at 34 or above.

But as Staley tweeted. He extended those T rex arms and laughs in your face about measurables.

All these player made pro bowl as left tackles with T Rex arms Staley, Peters, Thomas, Boselli, Samuels, Matthews, Long, Hopkins, Faneca, Glenn, Light, Clifton, Gross, Roos, Deihl, Penn, Lewan.

And Sewell could be another and if Walker Little plays left tackle at a pro bowl level in his future that will be another. Slater if he can get it done will be another.

How long were Anthony Munoz arms?

If my arms are 33 but I'm quick out of my stance and my hands fire and get on you before yours get to me, you could have the reach advantage but I've already won, so your longer arms did what there? Like a boxer. Your reach did what if I already moved like a butterfly closed the distance and then stung like a bee by putting a straight right through your teeth.
All I'm saying is I'm giving players who performed at a high level at left tackle a chance to see what they can do in mini camp and pre-season vs 1st team starters before I move them inside. To start off by saying T Rex arms he is a guard, I really hope that is what all the scouts think of Sewell-OT and let him fall to #13.

:stirpot::larry:

You are agreeing with my position, which is that less than 34" is not ideal. By not ideal, I mean that it is something that must be factored into the overall analysis.

Also, as another poster noted, there are degrees of separation from 34". Half an inch short of desired is worthy of some consideration. One inch short is worthy of additional consideration. An inch and a half or more short is worthy of still greater consideration. AVT and Christensen are the two shortest armed non-center OL candidates in the whole draft class, so they get lots of negative consideration. They almost certainly will not be playing LT in the NFL.

You can cite examples of successes to the contrary just like you can cite short QBs and slower WRs. But the point you keep missing is that teams do not typically draft assuming that the negative traits do not matter. Russell Wilson is a short and successful QB. He was also drafted in round 3, not round 1.

My discussion mainly deals with our pick at 1-13. I understand why Sewell can overcome his slightly short arms. There has been discussion about him having a superior anchor. If anyone is thinking about playing Slater at LT, that is a riskier proposition because his arms are even shorter and he weighs 25-30 pounds less than Sewell. He is just a smaller man. I have never suggested that he is absolutely incapable of playing LT in the NFL. What I have consistently said is that there is greater risk associated with picking a player like Slater because of his size issues.

There is always the risk that a player will be a bust, but teams can and should minimize that risk by avoiding as much risk of a bust as they can. If we had not signed Feiler and Aboushi, I think selecting Slater would have made tons of sense because he could fill one of 3 holes on the OL. But now we know that we have solid starters at OG, so the focus is really much more of an OT focus, which brings Slater's size issues into greater consideration because he may not upgrade us that much at OG, so what he adds is very limited if he can only play OG (at least in the short term). And, honestly, we should be able to get a quality OG later in the draft if that is our goal.

[Tol]

1. Jags- Trevor Lawrance
2. Jets- Zach Wilson
3. 49rs- Mac Jones
4. ATL- Justine Fields
5. Cincy- Penei Sewell
6. Fins- Ja'marr Chase
7. Lions- Kyle Pitts
8. CAR- Christian Darrisaw
9. Donks- Micah Parsons
10. Boys- Rashawn Slater
11. Giants- Patrick Surtain
12. Philly- Joe Horn
13. Bolts-???

No trade back, TBP.....who you got?

So WR Jaylen Waddle, WR DeVonta Smith and CB Caleb Farley still on the board?

It's a fun exercise. I've been trying to tune my top 13 big board sans QB's.

I was pretty high on Jeff Okudah last year early in the draft process, and he's still got a career ahead of him, but he had a disappointing season in 2020. So with this class being very deep at CB, I might not be enthused to take a corner at 13, especially the 2nd or 3rd ranked. I wouldn't expect anything big from Farley in season 1.

WR's taken in the top half of round 1 haven't exactly been big hitters in their first season either. Nor is WR a glaring need. We got huge production from our non-drafted guys Guyton and Johnson. I do love the nickname "Slim Reaper" though.

Here's what no one is talking about... with the top 2 LT's off the board in this scenario, the Chargers could draft the number 1 ranked player at one of the most sought after positions... EDGE Rusher. I admit I haven't really focused on this specific cluster, but we do have a need here. Having a solid pass rush certainly helps against the Chiefs.

Kwity Paye and Jaelan Phillips are in my top 15 sans QB's, but Phillips concussion history scares me off. So with everyone gushing over the receivers and corners I'm going to pull the 'Kansas City Shuffle' and take Kwity Paye.