2021 Draft Discussion - Bolts Pick 13th

[wu-dai clan]

I like Sewell as much as the next guy... but the cost would be too much.

https://boltbeat.com/2021/04/08/la-chargers-draft-trade-penei-sewell-worth/

Really hope we're not giving up picks this year. Such a deep draft at positions of need (especially secondary).
Really question giving up next year's 1st round pick, too.

:que:

[TexanBeerlover]

:anchorjump::anchorjump:

Penei Sewell/Tristen Wirfs ?

There is no model, other than you gotta be good.

I am no draft Cosmi early fan,
as he duplicates Norton & Pipkins.

Instead go for one of the myriad OTs later. Value.

You know shit, if that is your conclusion? Cosmi is definitely not a Norton or Pipkins, he is a moving, expanding pocket for Herbert LT. Did you somehow miss, fairly a lot of scouts have “NFL pundits have said” his 36 reps on bench press, tying Teven Jenkins? Don’t sleep on him brother, for he is impaler with immense upside. Your pigeon holing guys who are, or should be top 10 picks. Remember, it’s a process, time will decide. I’m not advocating Chargers select him #13 I’m advocating taking him later in trade back, adding a pick to be used to trade up earlier and grab corner. Follow me. Anything and I mean anything is an improvement @ LT, but Herbert doesn’t have to have Sewell, but would be nice, but what cost? He needs edge protection now, Center has been officially called off limits, next piece of the puzzle.

[Boltnut]

:que:

Responding to previous topic pre-Entiene convo...

[wu-dai clan]

The next, cold Lone Star long neck is on me Sir.

I could bite on Cosmi @#47.

[21&500]

The Dolphins GM has shown an elite level of gamesmanship with his draft picks. He’s clearly playing 4D chess, and he’s winning. The popular notion is that he traded from #12 back up to #6 because he’s targeting a specific player, Pitts or Chase. And that’s probably the case.

BUT...that #6 selection has unique value.

It’s looking more and more like the Falcons are gonna trade down with someone who wants a QB. Now, unless the Bengals trade out (which they probably won’t) that #6 pick is the final spot to secure the last QB.

The Dolphins could potentially trade that pick and receive even more than they traded away in order to get it. I admire them. They’re in a perfect strategic position.

Agreed, masterful.
now if they could only match their talent eval they would be dominating
(Tua > Herbert)
Same GM. Too bad for them that they bought my shit advice

[like54ninjas]

You know shit, if that is your conclusion? Cosmi is definitely not a Norton or Pipkins, he is a moving, expanding pocket for Herbert LT. Did you somehow miss, fairly a lot of scouts have “NFL pundits have said” his 36 reps on bench press, tying Teven Jenkins? Don’t sleep on him brother, for he is a paler with immense upside. Your pigeon holing guys who are, or should be top 10 picks. Remember, it’s a process, time will decide. I’m not advocating Chargers select him #13 I’m advocating taking him later in trade back, adding a pick to be used to trade up earlier and grab corner. Follow me. Anything and I mean anything is an improvement, LT, but Herbert doesn’t need Sewell, he needs edge protection now the Center has been officially called off limits.

To counter.....

Cosmi has some real technical issues. He is uber athletic but will need time to develop into a starter (1-2years). The upside Sam has is Elite level but will take time to achieve if he’s capable.

Sewell is a day 1 starter with even bigger upside. His natural skillset, size, and movement allowed him to dominate as a 18/19 year old as a Frosh/Soph. He won’t be 21 until week 5/6. As with Cosmi his arm measure about an 1” shorter than ideal but his tape never showed an issue.
Penei is so effective in the type of run, screen, and PA game I see us running from the multiple coaching pressers/comments.
I have Sewell graded as the best OT prospect since Ogden and Boselli. If we have a trade up possibility to secure this type of young talent for a few picks as the capital then so be it.

Wood is an astute football mind here at TPB. He’s always open for in-depth football discussions. There’s no need to besmirch his take because yours disagrees. I do it often as well, because I’m truly an asshole, but trying to be less of a direct ahole in football banter. Just a view from my view.

[Boltnut]

:anchorjump::anchorjump:

You know shit, if that is your conclusion? Cosmi is definitely not a Norton or Pipkins, he is a moving, expanding pocket for Herbert LT. Did you somehow miss, fairly a lot of scouts have “NFL pundits have said” his 36 reps on bench press, tying Teven Jenkins? Don’t sleep on him brother, for he is impaler with immense upside. Your pigeon holing guys who are, or should be top 10 picks. Remember, it’s a process, time will decide. I’m not advocating Chargers select him #13 I’m advocating taking him later in trade back, adding a pick to be used to trade up earlier and grab corner. Follow me. Anything and I mean anything is an improvement @ LT, but Herbert doesn’t have to have Sewell, but would be nice, but what cost? He needs edge protection now, Center has been officially called off limits, next piece of the puzzle.

I was once a "let's draft Cosmi" guy too. I think his athleticism is elite and he fits the outside zone scheme. But his 33" arms are a concern. I hate the theory that your OT's have to have 34" arms to play NFL LT... but the evidence is there. More importantly, I think TT subscribes to it. I'll stay @#13 and take Darrisaw.

[21&500]

I like Sewell as much as the next guy... but the cost would be too much.

https://boltbeat.com/2021/04/08/la-chargers-draft-trade-penei-sewell-worth/

Really hope we're not giving up picks this year. Such a deep draft at positions of need (especially secondary).
Really question giving up next year's 1st round pick, too.

I've mentioned my preference to trade future picks vs this draft partly for that reason but also, I expect a small but significant pattern... I expect it to be a "sellers market" (hope I'm not getting that wrong)
essentially with the uncertainty from no combine and many guys opting out, I think GMs will prefer to give up immediate assets (picks/players) for future picks, where they project to feel more certain about prospects after they play in 2021 and have a combine before the 2022 draft
So we will have to give up slightly less valuable 2022 to trade up for Sewell

[Boltnut]

The next, cold Lone Star long neck is on me Sir.

I could bite on Cosmi @#47.

Sorry my Wooded friend, I'm on the Darrisaw Train now. I've surrendered to the "long-arm" of the law...

I'll still take the beer...

[Guest]

I like Sewell as much as the next guy... but the cost would be too much.
https://boltbeat.com/2021/04/08/la-c...-sewell-worth/

Really hope we're not giving up picks this year. Such a deep draft at positions of need (especially secondary).
Really question giving up next year's 1st round pick, too.

No offense to Mr. Insdorf, the article's author, but trading our first and second and next year's first round pick to move up from #13 overall to #7 overall is unbalanced and, frankly, would be idiotic for us to consider. His article assumes that that would be the cost of such a trade, but that is a huge departure from the draft pick trading chart.

Here is a trade that is very nearly perfectly balanced on the NFL trading points chart.

DET trades us 1-7, 3-72 and 4-112, which is exactly 1800 points.

We trade to DET 1-13, 2-47, 3-77 and 6-185, which is 1800.8 points.

The trade is balanced and while trading away our second round pick, we actually move up 5 spots in round 3 and get a 4th round pick, while only adding a 6th round pick back.

The difference between #13 and #7 is only 350 points to begin with, which is the value of the #55 overall pick, so there is no way that that warrants surrendering an extra first round pick in addition to a second rounder that comes before pick #55.

If DET says give us next year's first round pick, we should tell them to go screw themselves.

[Bolt Dude]

Popper explains why the draft value chart does not apply for trades in the 1st round, and provides the most recent example:

“When discussing and evaluating trades in the later rounds, they typically align, to a degree, with the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart made famous by the Cowboys coach in the early 1990s. But those values can more or less be thrown out the window when you analyze trading up in the first round. The prices are higher because demand is higher and the team with the better pick holds pretty much all the leverage.

The trade value chart has changed over the last 30 years as the league has changed. More teams are using analytics in all facets of their decision-making. The league added compensatory picks for teams who lose players in free agency. The rookie wage scale was implemented in the 2012 CBA, significantly shrinking the contracts awarded to draft picks. All these trends and alterations impacted how teams value draft picks.

When moving up in the first round, though, a team is almost always going to overpay. That is the nature of the game. And we have a recent example to use for guidance. The Dolphins traded out of the No. 3 spot with the 49ers to No. 12. Miami then traded that No. 12 pick, No. 123 in the fourth round and a 2022 first-round pick to the Eagles for No. 6 and No. 156 in the fifth round.”

[GetBolted]

If Penei falls to 7 we certainly should go after him.....(honestly i'm fine with trading down to 4 to ensure we get him). IMHO he is plug and play and by a good margin the best LT in the draft. Shoot, him and Herb together again? Aside from the past connection there (Staley is all about relationships) How much would that help us develop a fan base and perhaps even a player pipeline in Oregon? Our RB's will be able to run, The Dime Lord will have lots of time to throw those deep ones...heck i think Kelly will flourish with some blocking and a head coach that isn't going to traumatize him for a couple of mistakes (one of which was just bad luck,IMO). I've ran alot of mocks and i can't help but feel the extra picks don't make up for the value lost between Penei and the next tackle. We've finally got a QB who is GOLD, let's get the matching LT. Thanks for having me here guys, Chargers were my first live NFL game in 90 (NASNI 90-94) and been a fan ever since!