Official 2019 Pre Draft Discussion

[powderblueboy]

In lieu of Jeremiah's comments, why so little talk about cornerback? I thought all along it was a big interest of the Chargers. Everyone is always interested in beef - myself included.

[Formula 21]

2019 NFL Draft: These 24 prospects are first-round locks, plus a look at the next guys up

Irv Smith Jr. is among three tight ends that make the list, but it's light on defensive backs and wide receivers

• 
• by Jason La Canfora
• @JasonLaCanfora

Generally, there are about 20-24 players in a draft who seem a safe bet to go in the first round. It can certainly vary by the year, but you can usually identify three quarters of the players who will eventually comprise the top 32 picks.
Trades and surprises are always a factor, and you allow for that wiggle room by leaving space for 8-10 players in this process. But there tends to be a consensus of sorts by about a week before the draft as to a few dozen players who seem destined for the first round, barring a last-minute injury, arrest, legal problem, or video or social media posts emerging of the player saying or doing things that could cause his stock to plummet.
This year there are 24 individuals I feel like are targeted for the first round. You may notice this list is light on defensive backs and receivers. I fully expect more of them to go in the first round than what I have listed here, but there is so much difference in opinion as to their value and merits that it's very hard to pinpoint specific players in a specific spot once we get into the 20s and 30s. There will definitely be additional offensive linemen selected who are not listed here, as well, and there is often a run on them late in the first round.

Here are the 24 prospects I see as first-round locks, or close to it:

Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
The entire league believes he is the first-overall pick. 'Nuff said.

Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State
He is being mocked second overall to the 49ers in most spots for good reason.

Josh Allen, LB, Kentucky
The pass rusher is going in the top five, probably either right before or right after the next guy on this list ...

Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama
A stud defensive tackle like this doesn't wait long to hear his name called.

Ed Oliver, DT, Houston
Neither does a stud DT like this.

Devin White, LB, LSU
He is either the top linebacker in this draft, or, depending on whom you talk to, this guy is ...

Devin Bush, LB, Michigan
It's only a matter of time for him, as well. Impossible to envision a scenario that does not include him going in the first round.

Andre Dillard, OL, Washington State
The top tackle in the draft is going within the top dozen picks, just a matter of which team at which point.

Jonah Williams, OL, Alabama
Whether or not he remains a tackle or kicks inside, it doesn't really matter at this point. He is a definite first-round pick.

Jawaan Taylor, OL, Florida
A lot of people have him pegged to the Jags in the top 10, and for good reason. This trio of offensive linemen will be off the board in fairly rapid succession, I suspect.

Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson
Another wave of a run on pass rushers will begin outside of the top five, and it may well start with him. Ditto for some of his Clemson teammates from that side of the ball like ...

Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson
After Williams and Oliver, he is the next most coveted defensive tackle. Too much power, speed and dexterity to ignore.

Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson
He rounds out the Clemson crew and his massive frame has been NFL-ready for years.

Brian Burns, DE, Florida State
The pass rusher from Florida State is generating a lot of buzz based on his upside and ability to close on the QB.

Montez Sweat, DE, Mississippi State
Hearing he may not go quite as high as some project, but it's hard to imagine him getting outside the top half of the first round.

Rashan Gary, DL, Michigan
He is not everyone's cup of tea and I am far from convinced he goes in the top dozen picks, but if he does slide it won't be beyond the 20s.

Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State
Haskins may slip a bit, but the kid had boundless pocket potential and threw for over 50 TDs in a top conference. He isn't getting past the 15th or 16th pick.

Noah Fant, TE, Iowa
Coming into focus as the top tight end in the draft and this is an elite group. If he comes off the board in the top eight picks or so, then the run on these other guys may start faster than at this point in the middle of the round.

T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa
Maybe he gets out of the teens before he's picked, but maybe not. Seen as a safe, clean pick no matter where he goes.

Irv Smith Jr., TE, Alabama
Some people are not convinced all three of these tight ends go in the first round, but I am. I have a very hard time seeing teams like Green Bay and New England, with such an obvious need in a win-now draft passing him by and letting him get to Day Two.

Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma
I believe the Oklahoma speedster, even coming off injury, is the safest bet of this confounding wide receiver class to go on Thursday. Maybe it is after D.K. Metcalf, but I felt most comfortable putting one WR in this group of 24 players, and that's Brown.

Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama
Teams will be content to wait until Day Two, by and large, to grab a RB. But I can't see Jacobs getting past the Eagles, Ravens and Raiders later in the first round.

Jeffery Simmons, DT, Mississippi State
Can't fathom Simmons isn't selected in this round, even if it is slightly after that run on the top three defensive tackles.

Garrett Bradbury, C, North Carolina State
Centers are getting much more money and attention now in free agency, and it's hardly taboo to take them in the first round. If I had to select an OL outside of the big thee (Williams, Taylor and Dillard) to be the safest bet to go in the top 32, I'm leaning to Bradbury. Maybe someone like Cody Ford, Kaleb McGary or Dalton Risner even go before him, but with things so murky at the back end of this round I'm making Bradbury the fourth OL of my 24 players here

Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
There are going to be at least three QBs selected in the first round, and I can't imagine he isn't one of them. Maybe four go and he falls behind Daniel Jones. That wouldn't be a shock to me. But ultimately, I can't see him getting past the teens and he could go top 10 to Denver.

So that's the 24. If you made me expand this list, Metcalf and corners Greedy Williams and Byron Murphy would likely be my next guys up. Basically, this exercise serves to kind of cluster players together and mimic the ebbs and flows I believe the first round might take. And as I play it out, these were the 24 players I had the hardest time leaving out of a top 32.

[powderblueboy]

2019 NFL Draft: These 24 prospects are first-round locks, plus a look at the next guys up

Irv Smith Jr. is among three tight ends that make the list, but it's light on defensive backs and wide receivers

• 
• by Jason La Canfora
• @JasonLaCanfora

Generally, there are about 20-24 players in a draft who seem a safe bet to go in the first round. It can certainly vary by the year, but you can usually identify three quarters of the players who will eventually comprise the top 32 picks.
Trades and surprises are always a factor, and you allow for that wiggle room by leaving space for 8-10 players in this process. But there tends to be a consensus of sorts by about a week before the draft as to a few dozen players who seem destined for the first round, barring a last-minute injury, arrest, legal problem, or video or social media posts emerging of the player saying or doing things that could cause his stock to plummet.
This year there are 24 individuals I feel like are targeted for the first round. You may notice this list is light on defensive backs and receivers. I fully expect more of them to go in the first round than what I have listed here, but there is so much difference in opinion as to their value and merits that it's very hard to pinpoint specific players in a specific spot once we get into the 20s and 30s. There will definitely be additional offensive linemen selected who are not listed here, as well, and there is often a run on them late in the first round.

Here are the 24 prospects I see as first-round locks, or close to it:

Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
The entire league believes he is the first-overall pick. 'Nuff said.

Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State
He is being mocked second overall to the 49ers in most spots for good reason.


[




So that's the 24. If you made me expand this list, Metcalf and corners Greedy Williams and Byron Murphy would likely be my next guys up. Basically, this exercise serves to kind of cluster players together and mimic the ebbs and flows I believe the first round might take. And as I play it out, these were the 24 players I had the hardest time leaving out of a top 32.

There you go! Greedy Williams & Byron Murphy are at 25 - 27 on the list. Murphy might be there at #28. Any opinions?

[Formula 21]

There you go! Greedy Williams & Byron Murphy are at 25 - 27 on the list. Murphy might be there at #28. Any opinions?

Here we go. BPA versus BPA at a position of need. Is the #27 prospect worth more than Tillery or Risner at about #30. Same with DK Metcalf. He's a top 15 player that could be there at 28. Do you take him if he's BPA?

That's what drives me crazy about people saying take BPA. These guys are all so close in talent you don't know who will be best after the 1st year.

So I'd prefer a lineman not a cb or wr. And I'm leaning towards Bradbury as best lineman available since we were getting killed up the middle last year. Or maybe even Tillery since he has potential as a pass rusher. This would be a hell of a DL if he produces pressures.

[Lone Bolt]

Here we go. BPA versus BPA at a position of need. Is the #27 prospect worth more than Tillery or Risner at about #30. Same with DK Metcalf. He's a top 15 player that could be there at 28. Do you take him if he's BPA?

That's what drives me crazy about people saying take BPA. These guys are all so close in talent you don't know who will be best after the 1st year.

So I'd prefer a lineman not a cb or wr. And I'm leaning towards Bradbury as best lineman available since we were getting killed up the middle last year. Or maybe even Tillery since he has potential as a pass rusher. This would be a hell of a DL if he produces pressures.

I've already stated my case why I don't think Bolts draft an olineman high....but that doesn't mean I don't like some guys there. I would be all over Bradbury!!

Some might think CB is not a need, but we don't know 100% what we have in Mike Davis. Trevor Williams is either gonna bounce back just in time to become a FA, and leave in search of a paycheck we don't want to cover, or he is gonna regress again, and we need to upgrade him. So in my view, if you get a high rated corner sitting there, with all our dime and nickel packages, it's probably a smart move to get the guy...so I am not gonna be shocked if we go that direction.

[beachcomber]

Here we go. BPA versus BPA at a position of need. Is the #27 prospect worth more than Tillery or Risner at about #30. Same with DK Metcalf. He's a top 15 player that could be there at 28. Do you take him if he's BPA?

That's what drives me crazy about people saying take BPA. These guys are all so close in talent you don't know who will be best after the 1st year.

So I'd prefer a lineman not a cb or wr. And I'm leaning towards Bradbury as best lineman available since we were getting killed up the middle last year. Or maybe even Tillery since he has potential as a pass rusher. This would be a hell of a DL if he produces pressures.

think you can easily take both Byron Murphy and Andraez off your board if so inclined, as despite Murphy's fit w/our scheme, he is not far from Verrett re: his build and susceptibility to injury, and doubtful whether the likelihood or not, not sure we want to leave ourselves vulnerable in that same aspect again, and.... Greedy has more than enough detractors/mixed reviews to raise the caution flag, 'specially in comparison to what may be viewed as safer/better gambits @other positions ??

and despite Jeremiah's considerations (he had us taking another DB, Adderley in his last installment.... does he know something we don't ?), there is the consideration that our board last year included the likes of Vita Vea, DaRon Payne and Taven Bryan.

am guessing this year could well be more of the same w/Wilkins, Dex and even Oliver, and wouldn't be surprised if Khalen Saunders is attached to our wish list at some slotting ??

if we look at monies and draft picks invested, there is def the consideration that they might well sit pat on the Oline for a bit, unless someone real good unexpectedly lands in their laps ?? personally do think that the all of Kaleb, Dalton and Erik McCoy might well be very solid pickups and wherever they might be selected, and again personally would hold out the possibility that the one or both of Cajuste and/or Isaiah Prince might find their way onto our roster later in the draft.

and ditto @safety as think both Adderley and Deionte make a whole lotta sense for us, and that you could make the case for the both of Gardner and Thornhill for us as well, and....

think DKM would be a grave error in judgment and draft capital, and presents yet another opportunity for the Chargers FO to turn the corner/get over the hump, as they have made the choice in the past to go skill position over beef in the recent past, i.e. TB over Bobby Massie in FA, and MW over Ryan Ramczyk in the draft.

so, based on last year's reputed cluster, apparently we were looking to go beef, and then there was Derwin.

and it's not like we weren't interested in beefing up the lines before either, i.e. Fluker, Watt, Carrethers, Bosa, Tuerk, Lamp, Feeney and Justin Jones....it's just that our win/hit percentage hasn't been above the Mason Dixon line.... face it, we're due.

and ditto for FA, as we have dipped and oft w/the lines, i.e. Dunlap, Orlando, Barksdale, Slauson, Mebane, Okung and Pouncey.

part of it is how the draft has fallen, and that in the grand scheme of things, team Tommy John are still more greenhorns than not, and.... hopefully they are climbing.

from my vantage point, they missed badly out of the gate by passing on Star Lotulelei, but didn't blow it w/Bosa.... otherwise think they're still treading water w/what we've got atm.

in the past have seen some smugness from a younger John Spanos, and caught a tinge of that from Tommy T. this offseason referring to his/our 12-4 record.

think we just have to hope and trust that our FO is still trending upward, as we all know how wrong we have been in this game we love 'n cherish called the NFL Draft.

speaking for myself, and however oft I might raise the flag for Ramczyk and others, that I was equally on board w/Malik McDowell and others (Jason Spriggs for one).

it all comes out in the wash, and.... hoping we turn the corner/get further over the hump in this edition/go 'round.

[beachcomber]

I've already stated my case why I don't think Bolts draft an olineman high....but that doesn't mean I don't like some guys there. I would be all over Bradbury!!

Some might think CB is not a need, but we don't know 100% what we have in Mike Davis. Trevor Williams is either gonna bounce back just in time to become a FA, and leave in search of a paycheck we don't want to cover, or he is gonna regress again, and we need to upgrade him. So in my view, if you get a high rated corner sitting there, with all our dime and nickel packages, it's probably a smart move to get the guy...so I am not gonna be shocked if we go that direction.

obviously you like Thornhill for us early, and think you can put the likes of CGJ, Nasir and Deionte in that bunch, albeit however overdrafted @28 some might claim/postulate.

@corner think the aforementioned Byron Murphy has to be in your cluster, and then personally would volunteer the likes of Oruwariye and Julian Love as additional candidates as Charger CBs, albeit again there is the consideration of draft value/slotting ??

for myself, the first consideration is not to bust, and think you've got to include quite a few of the above of having that possibility, i.e. Byron, Amani, Nasir and Deionte.

next up is your draft philosophy, which eye hope includes a focus/priority on the lines, save for of course a franchise QB

so do you go skill position, ie. DB, WR, RB early or do you buckle down and take you medicine w/linemen, and even tho you've got quite a few on the hotplate atm.... JJ, Lamp, Feeney, Q, Tevi, and even Joey B.

[beachcomber]

Look at the gusD fits.
Michael Davis.
Brandon Facyson.
Jeff Richards.
Even Trevor Williams.

I don't get it,
except for talent upgrade.

I smell a trade up for Wilkins.
Oh hell, I don't know wut I am smellin' ...something funky.

eye like the fact that he mentioned Facyson in the article.... think he has the talent, albeit is a question of can he stay healthy ??

and reading between the lines seems he is happy w/the likes of Hayward, Denzel and Derwin, and can work w/the likes of Rayshawn/Jaylen, and his rooks, and....

sounds like we have some job openings on the defensive side of the ball.... sit pat/let the draft come to us.... Christian or not.... we'll be fine.

[beachcomber]

Too many great D prospects to go O in the first. We gotta slow down teams like the Rams, Chiefs, NE to advance.

tend to agree, save for my Stidham afflction....

defense still wins championships....

[beachcomber]

Here's a nightmare.


29


Jerry Tillery - DT



School: Notre Dame | Year: Senior
Switching to a 4-3 means more opportunity for interior pressure to be game-changing. The impact of Notre Dame interior rusher Tillery, especially next to Chris Jones, will help offset the loss of Dee Ford, who himself was responsible for 10 turnovers last season

personal opinion is that the only nightmare would be if we drafted him, albeit do surmise he will be the better player than D. Ford.

[beachcomber]

Very interesting read F21.

Jeremiah's ideas are valuable.

As our broadcast color guy,
he has great perspective.

he was spot on w/Derwin.... would be nice if Wilkins became a Charger.

Tillery's up and down performance worries me a fair bit, along w/some questionable decisions in his past, and neither him or Dre'Mont is gonna help our run D.... 'specially for the if and when Denzel step's off (the field).

and hoping the "not our style" commentary re: Dex and a disruptor/penetrator, is similar to other conjecture in the past re: our FO's draft tendencies.... pls don't separate/isolate the parts from the sum as 'tis the sum of the parts and how the D deals on the whole that matters.... a NT would be (very/extremely) helpful.

and wonder if @corner/DB we can't pull off a Seattle eval, i.e. a Richard Sherman compare/Isaiah Johnson in the middle rounds ??

[beachcomber]

While the rest of the league moves away from massive DTs like Lawrence, the

Patriots

see the value in a dominant run defender who can push the pocket on passing downs.

also surprised that DJ pinpoints the CB play as one of our downfalls against the Pats, as was under the impression that White (Derwin ?) and Edelman (Desmond ?) were the chief troublemakers there ??

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001026563/article/daniel-jeremiah-2019-nfl-mock-draft-30-drew-lock-to-packers