Introducing Our Next Head Coach

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Also with regards to ST this season:

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Popper answers some fan questions with his thoughts. This was after the Saints game, and before the Jags game.
Q1: How intriguing would Eric Bieniemy be to you if you were Dean Spanos? He runs a dynamic offense, it would weaken a division foe & he's a former Charger. What would the Chargers record have to be for Dean to make a change?

Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy will be the top head-coaching candidate available this offseason. He should have been hired as a head coach last offseason after he helped lead Kansas City to a Super Bowl title, but he was passed over for Mike McCarthy and Joe Judge, among others. How and why that happened is a conversation for another day.

Quite frankly, Bieniemy should be intriguing for any owner without an established winner as a head coach. He is widely regarded as a great leader and probably has not received the credit he deserves for his role in building the Chiefs’ juggernaut offense. If I were Chargers owner Dean Spanos, I would at least have to consider the option, even though I still believe Anthony Lynn is an above-average NFL head coach.

But that is a very different question than asking how intrigued Spanos actually is, and will be, this offseason. The reality is the entire organization strongly believes in Lynn, from the top down. A majority of the battle in the NFL is finding a head coach who can get consistent effort from his players. Lynn does that as well as anyone in the league. And at the end of the day, teams can live with some occasional game mismanagement if the players are playing hard for their head coach every Sunday.

This season would have to crash and burn in dramatic fashion for the Chargers to even consider a head-coaching change. We are talking 1-15 or 2-14. And I just don’t see that happening. The Chargers have proven they can play with anybody in the league. If they get healthier and Herbert continues to develop, the Chargers will win enough games to keep Lynn safe. Remember, they signed Lynn to a contract extension in February.

But let me put my ownership cap back on, because this is a fun hypothetical. The only way I would consider moving on from Lynn is if I was 100 percent sure I could hire Bieniemy. Right now, there are two NFL head-coaching vacancies: Houston and Atlanta. The Chargers have a better roster and more flexible cap sheet than both of those teams, so they could present an enticing pitch to Bieniemy.

The Texans don’t have much outside of Deshaun Watson, and Bill O’Brien systematically destroyed any hope of building a promising team around Watson for the foreseeable future. The Falcons, meanwhile, currently are slated to be $25.25 million over the cap for 2021, largely because of massive contracts doled out to quarterback Matt Ryan, wide receiver Julio Jones, left tackle Jake Matthews and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett. They are not in position to get out of any of those contracts any time soon, and that detracts significantly from the attractiveness of the job. The Chargers have plenty of financial flexibility and, most importantly, have a rising star in Herbert on a rookie deal for at least the next three seasons.

But if I were Bieniemy, would I really take a head-coaching job in Patrick Mahomes’ division? Would I really want to play that offense twice every year when I have options to coach elsewhere? Personally, I would try to get as far away from the Chiefs as possible, even if those organizations offer less money than the Chargers.

Because of that factor, the Chargers would be taking an enormous risk in moving on from Lynn. If Bieniemy opts to coach elsewhere, the Chargers could very well end up with a worse head coach than Lynn.

The grass always looks greener on the other side. Sometimes the more prudent choice is sticking with the known quantity. I pin a lot of the Chargers’ struggles over the past two years on injuries. I truly believe Lynn can win in this league if he can get through a season in which the Chargers aren’t among the most injured teams in football.

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Q2. Tom Telesco nailing the Herbert pick has got to make his stay with the Chargers a lifetime appointment?

The short answer to this question is that NFL decision-makers do not have lifetime appointments unless they own the team — Jerry Jones — or are named Bill Belichick.

But you’re all here for the long answer.

Chargers general manager Tom Telesco should be praised for pulling the trigger on Herbert with the sixth overall pick. There were plenty of doubts about Herbert, but Telesco and the rest of the Chargers’ personnel department did their homework, as they do every year with quarterbacks, and determined he was a future franchise quarterback. So far, that assessment is looking accurate.

The pick may have bought Telesco additional time. At some point, though, he has to start producing results. Consider this: Of the 11 GMs hired in 2013 or earlier, Telesco, who took over as Chargers GM in January 2013, is the only one not to appear in a conference championship game. This does not count Jones and Bengals owner Mike Brown, each of whom heads his team’s personnel department.

Telesco has largely drafted well. He has established a commendable culture. He has hit on a number of key free-agent signings. He has kept the Chargers’ cap sheet more or less healthy. He is a quality talent evaluator. He is smart and adept at finding advantages, however small or large, over his opponents. And for these reasons, he is an above-average general manager.

To put it very simply, though: GMs very rarely get the kind of leash Telesco already has been afforded.

We can come up with myriad excuses — injuries, coaching, etc. But, to use a cliche, the NFL is a bottom-line business, and Telesco’s bottom line is two playoff wins in seven seasons. And it will likely become two in eight seasons when 2020 wraps up.

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Q3. There was obviously a lot of talk yesterday about some possible play calling changes to avoid the blown leads, but nothing specific was mentioned. What, if anything, do you think changes from here on out?

Let’s start with the offense. It is clear, up to this point, that the Chargers have been reluctant to turn Herbert loose. They are still relying heavily on the running game on early downs.

There are a number for reasons for this.

1. The pass protection has been faulty because of all the injuries up front, and passing would put Herbert in more dangerous situations.

2. Herbert is still very early in his career, so it is understandable that Lynn and the offensive coaches do not want to put too much on his plate too soon.

3. Lynn, at his core, wants to run the football. He was a running back as a player. He coached running backs for most of his career. He wants a balanced offense and wants to run the ball effectively to control the clock and the tempo of games.

With all that being said, though, I expect the Chargers to put the ball in Herbert’s hands more often moving forward, especially on early downs. They will get some offensive line pieces back, perhaps as soon as this week. Right tackle Bryan Bulaga has returned to practice, so the protection should improve. Herbert, meanwhile, has answered every challenge and proven capable of winning games with his arm if the coaching staff gives him the chance.

And I am not talking about drastic changes. It means passing on a down here and a down there to become a little less dependent on the run in those situations.

This chart from The Athletic contributor Ben Baldwin is a great visualization of the point I am trying to make. Baldwin, who is an awesome Twitter follow and is consistently on the cutting edge of NFL analytics, calculated an expected pass rate on early downs for each team based on down, distance, field position, time, score differential and win probability. He then measured how far below that expected rate each team is.



The Chargers are passing at the lowest rate below expected of any team in football. That can and should change in the coming weeks because they have no reason to continue doing what they are doing. The Chargers have been one of the least efficient teams in the league on early downs. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Chargers have the lowest success rate on first down of any team in football at 38 percent. (Sharp defines a play as successful “when it gains at least 40 percent of yards-to-go on first down, 60 percent of yards-to-go on second down and 100 percent of yards-to-go on third or fourth down.”) Further, the Chargers are 27th in the league in success rate on first and second downs combined. Something has to change.

Defensively, things are a little more complicated.

The Chargers entered this season looking to be more multiple on defense. They wanted to play less Cover 3 zone, the staple of coordinator Gus Bradley’s scheme, and be more aggressive in their pass rush by blitzing more and diversifying their alignments up front, namely lining their ends up wider.

Those tweaks made sense in theory, but the defense has been decimated by injuries, forcing young players onto the field. In general, the more you ask young players to do, the slower they play. That is the primary reason why Bradley prioritizes being precise at fewer concepts instead of showing a slew of exotic looks.

Because of the injuries, I think we will see the Chargers simplify things defensively over the remainder of the season. That means more Cover 3 and switching up their coverages less often. We have seen more man coverage and two-deep safety looks through the first five games. But the execution overall just hasn’t been where it needs to be. A simpler defense could lead to better execution because the young players — like safety Nasir Adderley — can play with more confidence.

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Q4.Do you agree with Lynn that this team only needs tweaks to get where they need to be? Or do you see more of an overhaul as needed?

This will sound simple, but the Chargers really just need to get healthier. Ultimately, talent wins games in the NFL. And the Chargers have been playing without a lot of their top talent this season. Getting Melvin Ingram and Justin Jones back will be huge. Having a healthy Joey Bosa out there will be huge. Returning Bulaga to the starting offensive line will be huge.

They need to make some tweaks, as I highlighted above. Those, coupled with improved health, should lead to some wins.

Ingram and Jones both were designated to return off IR on Monday, starting a 21-day window during which the Chargers can activate them. Both Jones and Ingram were practicing this week. I doubt they will be active Sunday, but I think both guys will return on some sort of snap count in Week 8 at the Broncos.

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I think popper understates how attractive the HC job would be here if Lynn was fired
Herbert alone makes it by far the most attractive job.
let alone the fact that he’s on a rookie deal and you have Bosa in his prime.

If Lynn is to stay because they “play hard for him” I say that’s a pretty low bar
You need much more than that, that’s hardly “the majority of the battle”
and I don’t see what popper is basing all this confidence in. I think the Spanos are absolutely looking at their options.
If they’re sure Lynn is an above average HC and it’s just injuries setting us back, as popper says, then we should expect a big extension for Lynn soon, and just hope we stay healthy one of these seasons, right?
that one year extension last year didn’t look like it came from an Owner that is sold on Lynn

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The pick may have bought Telesco additional time. At some point, though, he has to start producing results. Consider this: Of the 11 GMs hired in 2013 or earlier, Telesco, who took over as Chargers GM in January 2013, is the only one not to appear in a conference championship game. This does not count Jones and Bengals owner Mike Brown, each of whom heads his team’s personnel department.

If we only had built an OL. Just my opinion of course.

[AK47]

I think popper understates how attractive the HC job would be here if Lynn was fired
Herbert alone makes it by far the most attractive job.
let alone the fact that he’s on a rookie deal and you have Bosa in his prime.

If Lynn is to stay because they “play hard for him” I say that’s a pretty low bar
You need much more than that, that’s hardly “the majority of the battle”
and I don’t see what popper is basing all this confidence in. I think the Spanos are absolutely looking at their options.
If they’re sure Lynn is an above average HC and it’s just injuries setting us back, as popper says, then we should expect a big extension for Lynn soon, and just hope we stay healthy one of these seasons, right?
that one year extension last year didn’t look like it came from an Owner that is sold on Lynn

Imagine if Belicheat scans the NFL for warmer pastures. He see's the Chargers in LA. He sees more Subway commercials. Perhps a commercial for H&R Block or something like that. He see's a young level headed kid with mucho talent at QB. All he has to do is shore up the defense, brush up on current 4k spy cam tech, and tell folks to "Do Their Damn Job".

Imagine Belicheat smiling. No wait impossible.

Imagine a real life Emperor Palpatine grinning once he found his young Luke Skywalker apprentice. "Now" imagine Belicheat laughing.

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Random thoughts:
1) Find a way to keep Campen. He's doing as much as he can with a Covid shortened offseason and not the best talent on the team. I think there's signs of encouragement. Sucks that our RG and RT can't stay healthy especially our RG Turner.
2) Regardless of any FO or coaching change, Spanos and Co. need to create a legitimate analytics and sports science department this offseason.

The Spanos are cheap. They won't pay for such resources, especially something that could help to keep the players healthy. Players like Tomlinson, Rivers, Gates, and others had to pay for their own health advisors to keep them in good health or condition.

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How many years does Sean Peyton have on his contract?
JH is football gold and everyone knows it
if the Spanos don’t leverage that to acquire a proven winner at HC then their even bigger fools that even we thought.
with Lynn, we will still be depending a lot on luck
we need a legit boss who understands what Herbert is capable of to come in here and not leave until the Spanos hands over the job
we can no doubt lure guys like Lincoln Riley or perhaps even Saban
you telling me these guys consider the majority of the battle to be just getting guys to play hard?

if the Spanos aren’t motivated, it better be Herbert himself one day telling the Spanos to hire an elite HC or refuse to resign when his contract is up.

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The Spanos are cheap. They won't pay for such resources, especially something that could help to keep the players healthy. Players like Tomlinson, Rivers, Gates, and others had to pay for their own health advisors to keep them in good health or condition.

The Spanos in SD were cheaper outside of the salary cap. But they’ve shown more willingness to spend since they left for LA. Who knows what Covid will do to everyone’s bottom line but there are past things to give a small glimmer of hope:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbs...r-answers/amp/

https://www.chargers.com/news/bolts-...-center-152321

And to be fair a lot of players outside of the Chargers take the extra step on their own:

https://www.espn.com/blog/pittsburgh-steelers/post/_/id/24375/hydrations-massages-ivs-yoga-what-nfl-players-spend-upwards-of-300000-on-to-stay-young

[Bolt4Knob]

Unless we have a viable replacement, he won't be fired until after the season is over.

He should have been fired two years ago. But Fassell was let go by the Rams and signed with the Cowboys. Chargers missed the boat.

Popper again says they miss guys like Zub, Phillips Watt -- ST weren't that great with those guys either.

Its been a consistent crap show. Stewart needs to be fired