Welcome Josh Palmer, WR, Tennessee (Pick #77)

[blueman]

Agree with the 1st point. And if either Williams or Allen goes down, then there is the depth thing.

As far as having another speed guy in the O, that will probably happen at some point. However, it is not just speed guys who can get deep. Mike Williams doesn't have a great 40 time, but he is a deep threat. A lot of long-legged, deep strider types have been. For us, Floyd, VJ and Williams are all good examples, but I know I am forgetting some. Allen is also more of a route runner type, but he has gotten a pretty fair share of big plays over the top, and I wouldn't consider him one of the long-legged types either. Point is, while speed is great to have, it is not the only way to spread a defense out, which is the real goal.

In time, like next season, I wouldn't be surprised if JG, even if he has a big season moves on. Mostly, that is because we are $13 mill over next season's cap. While I am not suggesting that we can't get under the cap and find enough money to sign our rookies, with the money we have tied up in Allen and Williams, and Palmer being a fairly high pick, JG might have to move on if he needs a really big check, opening up a roster spot for a speed guy.

The biggest problem is that with Hill being so popular among fans and coaches, I think it is going to be tough to find a decent speed guy. THere are a lot of those speed guys who can't play worth a damn, and I think teams are reaching for WR with any amount of speed. I'm not against going for one, but you have to be careful and not leave roster holes reaching for guys.

You’re assuming Guyton has a good year.

[dmac_bolt]

I 100% disagree. The above is just bad analysis in my view. Guyton's NFL experience was the functional equivalent of nil entering 2020. If you would like to compare Guyton's 2020 season to Palmer's 2021 season, go ahead, but Palmer lovers are not going to like the result (511 yards and 18.3 yards per reception for Guyton in 2020).

KGB’s analysis is flawless. Your analytical methodology, however, is don’t count Guyton’s rookie season at all because he didnt earn any playing time but count every stat you can find in Palmer’s rookie season that you think indicates he’s not going to be a good player. You literally threw out 33% of his career to solidify your argument.

you’re hilarious. Lets just wait and see them both play and end this silliness

[powderblueboy]

KGB’s analysis is flawless. Your analytical methodology, however, is don’t count Guyton’s rookie season at all because he didnt earn any playing time but count every stat you can find in Palmer’s rookie season that you think indicates he’s not going to be a good player. You literally threw out 33% of his career to solidify your argument.

you’re hilarious. Lets just wait and see them both play and end this silliness

There is still wiggle room for Chaincrusher here.....that is why this thread rules.

Guyton's first team was Dallas who signed him as a rookie free agent in 2019.

On that Dallas squad was:

1. Amari Cooper
2. Randall Cobb
3. Michael Gallup
4. Devin Smith
5. Cedrick Wilson
6. Tavon Austin

That's a stacked group...what earthly mortal could make that squad? You can only fault Guyton for being stupid and signing with Dallas.

So he came to the Chargers mid season and had no opportunity to get on the football field that year. What is there to use for comparison's sake?
He carefully honed his skills on the Charger practice squad and had his break out year in 2020.

[Guest]

KGB’s analysis is flawless. Your analytical methodology, however, is don’t count Guyton’s rookie season at all because he didnt earn any playing time but count every stat you can find in Palmer’s rookie season that you think indicates he’s not going to be a good player. You literally threw out 33% of his career to solidify your argument.

you’re hilarious. Lets just wait and see them both play and end this silliness

I disagree. Nobody is saying that Herbert is way better than Mahomes because his rookie season was way better than Mahomes' rookie season. Everyone understands that when a player does not play, he does get the benefit of actual in game experience and cannot build stats no matter how good the player is. While I believe Herbert is better than Mahomes, I do not base that on Herbert playing in his rookie season and Mahomes not playing in his rookie season. That argument is weak.

When both players first started getting a chance to play significant snaps, Guyton (in 2020) outplayed Palmer (in 2021) and Guyton did so last year too, though only marginally because Lombardi misused Guyton as I noted from fairly early on last season before the national sports media figured it out and made a national sports issue out of Lombardi's failure to use the deep passing game as the CIN game that featured the first designed deep pass to Guyton all season long was the 12th game of the season.

Sadly, "letting them play" will probably not end/resolve anything. Guyton is the better WR3 fit whether the team is smart enough to realize it or not. We are talking about coaches that did not keep the reserve WR that produced the highest passer rating in the NFL when targeted and instead chose to keep K.J. Hill, and then misused Guyton for most of last season, so the precedent of the team not figuring out how to get the most out of the reserve WR position is already well established to the point that I fully expect them to be stupid about it.

Thus, I have already stated before any of this recent discussion began that I fully expect the team to make the mistake of playing 11 personnel with Palmer as the third WR most of the time. It will be a mistake when they do so because while the offense will still be good, it will not be as good as it otherwise would have been with Guyton getting the majority of the snaps as the third WR in 11 personnel formations. And I expect people to say "I told you so" about Palmer to me without even having had the faintest clue of how much better the offense could have and should have been had Guyton been used more than Palmer.

[blueman]

So Guyton’s “breakout year” in 2020 amounted to Palmer’s rookie season? And he did that when Palmer wasn’t here…hmmm. Not really “elite,” but 4th WRs generally aren’t, lol.

[Guest]

I really did. You see what you see. The stat is only based on passes thrown to him. All the times he doesn’t get off the line, he’s not thrown at and those plays (which are the overwhelming majority of his plays) are not in the stat). Defenders don’t worry about his out routes or crossing routes because he has sub-par moves and they can recover faster on him. Thats what I see watching him.

you know the most mind-numbingly stupid post of the off season? Your recommendation we sign a QB2 that is the polar opposite of QB1.

The average cushion for Guyton was 7 yards. Cushion is based on all snaps, not targeted snaps. FFS, was the turf monster preventing him getting off the line of scrimmage? Did a sudden hurricane prevent him from his free release? Do you now see the problem with this "can't get off the line of scrimmage" nonsense that has been suggested? It is a bunch of BS. The larger average cushion is inconsistent with the notion that the WR cannot get off of the line of scrimmage. Psst. There is no defender immediately in front of Guyton. SMH....

Equally absurd is the notion that defenders are not concerned with Guyton on underneath routes. Of course, they are concerned about Guyton catching the ball on underneath routes, but they are forced to play off of him because most of them cannot run with him and will get beat deep if they play too close to the line of scrimmage, so they make the wise choice of giving him a larger cushion.

Finally, I am really not sure what you are missing about Huntley. Unlike Stick, he has a legit NFL arm. His ability also to run with the ball is a strength, not a weakness that defenses may not be ready to account for if he enters in the middle of a game. I mean, under your thinking, I guess Bill Walsh and the 49ers were really stupid to sign Steve Young to backup Joe Montana. After all, he was a left handed QB that could run, very different than Montana. And the fact that the offense would operate a little differently under Young in terms of play distribution in your world must have meant that having Young was a disastrous decision, right? Do you see how weak your position is? SMH....

[Maniaque 6]

Young already belonged to the 49ers !

[Guest]

So Guyton’s “breakout year” in 2020 amounted to Palmer’s rookie season? And he did that when Palmer wasn’t here…hmmm. Not really “elite,” but 4th WRs generally aren’t, lol.

Nobody has suggested that Guyton is elite.

Regarding Guyton, I have stated:

1. Guyton has one elite trait (speed) and one plus trait (contact balance).
2. Guyton's strengths are a better fit with the games of Allen and Williams than Palmer's are because Guyton's strengths add something to the mix that is not otherwise present with Allen and Williams. Palmer's game does not add something different or complementary to Allen and Williams. I further submit that this point is beyond completely obvious and that any Chargers fan would have to be deliberately obtuse not to see it.

Because of point 2 above, my view is that the majority of 11 personnel WR3 snaps this season should go to Guyton and not to Palmer.

[Guest]

Young already belonged to the 49ers !

Not when Montana was drafted. What are you suggesting? The 49ers traded for Young in 1987. Montana was drafted by the 49ers in 1979. Montana was the one that was already there.

[powderblueboy]

Nobody has suggested that Guyton is elite.

Regarding Guyton, I have stated:

1. Guyton has one elite trait (speed) and one plus trait (contact balance).
2. Guyton's strengths are a better fit with the games of Allen and Williams than Palmer's are because Guyton's strengths add something to the mix that is not otherwise present with Allen and Williams. Palmer's game does not add something different or complementary to Allen and Williams. I further submit that this point is beyond completely obvious and that any Chargers fan would have to be deliberately obtuse not to see it.

Because of point 2 above, my view is that the majority of 11 personnel WR3 snaps this season should go to Guyton and not to Palmer.

Guyton's 40 time, when adjusted to combine times (his being measured at a pro day), does not put him in the elite category......
its somewhere in the low 4.4s: below the elite category. There are maybe 100 players in the NFL who could beat him in a 40 race.

His contact balance shows up nowhere: not shedding press coverage, not breaking tackles, not fighting through traffic to grab a pass.

Personally, i think Palmer is much closer to having elite traits than Guyton: body control in air, catch radius, hands.
I'll upload a gif of Palmer in 2019 that will knock your socks off demonstrating all those traits in one play, when i can download it.

[powderblueboy]

The average cushion for Guyton was 7 yards. Cushion is based on all snaps, not targeted snaps. FFS, was the turf monster preventing him getting off the line of scrimmage? Did a sudden hurricane prevent him from his free release? Do you now see the problem with this "can't get off the line of scrimmage" nonsense that has been suggested? It is a bunch of BS. The larger average cushion is inconsistent with the notion that the WR cannot get off of the line of scrimmage. Psst. There is no defender immediately in front of Guyton. SMH....

Equally absurd is the notion that defenders are not concerned with Guyton on underneath routes. Of course, they are concerned about Guyton catching the ball on underneath routes, but they are forced to play off of him because most of them cannot run with him and will get beat deep if they play too close to the line of scrimmage, so they make the wise choice of giving him a larger cushion.

Finally, I am really not sure what you are missing about Huntley. Unlike Stick, he has a legit NFL arm. His ability also to run with the ball is a strength, not a weakness that defenses may not be ready to account for if he enters in the middle of a game. I mean, under your thinking, I guess Bill Walsh and the 49ers were really stupid to sign Steve Young to backup Joe Montana. After all, he was a left handed QB that could run, very different than Montana. And the fact that the offense would operate a little differently under Young in terms of play distribution in your world must have meant that having Young was a disastrous decision, right? Do you see how weak your position is? SMH....

Defenses were not concerned with Guyton: that's what that means. Bothering to get up and jam Guyton takes bodies away from Allen/Williams.

Mecole Hardman & Byron Pringle had the same huge cushion and separation rating....well superior to Tyreek Hill.

Do you think teams were more afraid of Byron Pringle?

[Guest]

Guyton's 40 time, when adjusted to combine times (his being measured at a pro day), does not put him in the elite category......
its somewhere in the low 4.4s: below the elite category. There are maybe 100 players in the NFL who could beat him in a 40 race.

His contact balance shows up nowhere: not shedding press coverage, not breaking tackles, not fighting through traffic to grab a pass.

Personally, i think Palmer is much closer to having elite traits than Guyton: body control in air, catch radius, hands.
I'll upload a gif of Palmer in 2019 that will knock your socks off demonstrating all those traits in one play, when i can download it.

Guyton's speed (mid 4.3s) is clearly legit and does not warrant any adjustment. But I applaud your effort to make up some numbers when the real numbers do not support your position. Nobody has caught from behind on a ball that he did not have to wait for adjust to to catch.

Regarding contact balance, look at his games against DEN in 2020 and CIN in 2021. It is pretty obvious to see when you know where to look. I am not suggesting he is Javonte Williams or even Austin Ekeler, but he just might have the second best contact balance on our roster. I do not think it is an elite trait for him, but it is a plus trait when compared to most NFL WRs.

Palmer has zero elite traits. His catch radius is less than Guyton's and Guyton's is not elite or even plus. Palmer's body control is average at best for an NFL WR. It does not stand out at all. His hands are solid, but nothing special. Like I said, zero elite traits. And every time someone raises this subject, I will be sure to ask, "How does he win?" Such a simple question and yet no meaningful answer has been provided by anyone. Could that be because he does not have a clearly recognizable elite trait?

BTW, Keenan Allen wins because he has great moves and can set up defenders and get off/open almost immediately. Mike Williams wins because he has a big body and he is truly great on contested and clutch catches. Tyrell Williams won because of his speed (4.43 40), quickness (1.51 10 yard split) and superior catch radius (6'4" tall, 33.5" arms and a 39.5" vertical leap). Again, how does Palmer win?