Welcome Josh Palmer, WR, Tennessee (Pick #77)

[richpjr]

You are kidding, right? Palmer has done absolutely nothing that Johnson could not have done for us without the loss of a third round pick. In fact, Palmer has hugely underperformed based upon all of his preseason hype. Moreover, our offense has been missing the big plays that were present last year--plays that are much more likely with players like Johnson than players like Palmer. I said the loss of Johnson would hurt our deep passing attack and it has.

We could have drafted Spencer Brown (a guy I hoped we would draft in round 3) or a safety (as Webb is very limited) instead of Palmer and kept Johnson. It did not take a whole lot of thought to foresee that Bulaga would be injured at some point this season, that Norton was a marginal replacement and that Pipkins would be worthless.

I would say I was pretty much right on the money so far as 2020 Johnson is outpacing 2021 Palmer so far and would not have cost us a third round draft pick which could have been used to fill other team needs.

Not sure you are getting my point. I was talking more about Johnson doing nothing rather than Palmer lighting it up. You were very vocal in your criticism of the Palmer pick and touted Johnson very hard. Johnson has been active for all 4 games and has 1 catch for 6 yards, so his deep threat ability isn't exactly panning out for the Jags. There was a lot of talk how teams would concentrate on taking away the deep pass away from us this year and force Herbert to be patient underneath with the shorter stuff and that is exactly what has been happening - and Herbert is excelling at it. We get how much you hate the pick but it's absurd to write off Palmer at this point. Unless Allen or MW get hurt, nobody else on the roster is going to get many looks.

[like54ninjas]

You are kidding, right? Palmer has done absolutely nothing that Johnson could not have done for us without the loss of a third round pick. In fact, Palmer has hugely underperformed based upon all of his preseason hype. Moreover, our offense has been missing the big plays that were present last year--plays that are much more likely with players like Johnson than players like Palmer. I said the loss of Johnson would hurt our deep passing attack and it has.

We could have drafted Spencer Brown (a guy I hoped we would draft in round 3) or a safety (as Webb is very limited) instead of Palmer and kept Johnson. It did not take a whole lot of thought to foresee that Bulaga would be injured at some point this season, that Norton was a marginal replacement and that Pipkins would be worthless.

I would say I was pretty much right on the money so far as 2020 Johnson is outpacing 2021 Palmer so far and would not have cost us a third round draft pick which could have been used to fill other team needs.

Bit of an over exaggeration.
T-Billy - 2020 - games 1-3 = 0 receptions/0 yards/0 TD, games 4-9 = 3 reception/157 yards/1 TD.

Let’s see how both players compare after their first year on the 53.

[Guest]

Not sure you are getting my point. I was talking more about Johnson doing nothing rather than Palmer lighting it up. You were very vocal in your criticism of the Palmer pick and touted Johnson very hard. Johnson has been active for all 4 games and has 1 catch for 6 yards, so his deep threat ability isn't exactly panning out for the Jags. There was a lot of talk how teams would concentrate on taking away the deep pass away from us this year and force Herbert to be patient underneath with the shorter stuff and that is exactly what has been happening - and Herbert is excelling at it. We get how much you hate the pick but it's absurd to write off Palmer at this point. Unless Allen or MW get hurt, nobody else on the roster is going to get many looks.

As I stated months ago, Johnson's performance for another team has nothing to do with what he can do with Herbert throwing him the ball, which he proved last year. Last year, he had a high rate of receptions versus targets, a high yards per reception average and produced multiple huge plays for us. That is who he was for us.

Also, I am not writing Palmer off. I have recognized what he was from Day 1, though. I accept him as a reserve WR. The only problem is that we did not need one of those as we already had Guyton and Johnson. It seemed like about half of this forum justified the draft pick by stating that he would be the replacement for Mike Williams. I insisted that that was crazy then and so far it looks like I am right about that.

And if Palmer is not the replacement for Williams, then we are most definitely back to the question of why he was drafted in the first place when we already had Guyton and Johnson and had other team needs.

In addition, it is not writing him off to note that his ceiling is not close to that of Mike Williams (as some on this forum contended) any more than it is for me to note that Rountree's ceiling is not as high as Ekeler's. I see those two comparisons as very similar where the rookie is nowhere near as good as the starter. The talent of the rookies simply is not there in those two cases when compared to the high end starter. Palmer and Rountree are reserve players period. Ekeler and Mike Williams are high end starters. There is a huge difference.

WR was our deepest position heading into the draft. Palmer lacks the value of where he was drafted and was a wasted pick when we could have simply kept Johnson, who has proven so far to be better for us than Palmer. But even if they were only equal or Palmer was a small improvement over Johnson, the pick was just a bad choice given our other team needs.

Even if we all were to pretend that Bulaga was not a really obvious injury risk, Bulaga is an older player in decline worthy of salary cap casualty consideration, which means that we we should be ready to replace him anyway. As I stated previously, Spencer Brown was there to be taken. At a minimum, we could have moved on from Pipkins, an obviously weak holder of a roster spot. And this is just one example of a useful alternate pick. I am sure there were others too.

Finally, if other teams were so concerned about our potent deep passing game to try to take that away, we certainly played right into their hands by doing that to ourselves by drafting Palmer and cutting Johnson. I mean if other teams felt so concerned about our deep passing game, that should tell you that the players we had that were responsible for producing that deep passing game were important players that we should have kept since they stood to be responsible for opponents altering their defenses.

[Guest]

Bit of an over exaggeration.
T-Billy - 2020 - games 1-3 = 0 receptions/0 yards/0 TD, games 4-9 = 3 reception/157 yards/1 TD.

Let’s see how both players compare after their first year on the 53.

The fact that Johnson did not play early in the season means that he accomplished what he did in even fewer games and had an even higher rate of production, which only further illustrates my point about Johnson being the more productive of the two players.

[equivocation]

Half of Johnson's targets this year have been intercepted.

And remember, according to chain Lawrence is obviously better than Herbert so can't blame the QB.

[like54ninjas]

The fact that Johnson did not play early in the season means that he accomplished what he did in even fewer games and had an even higher rate of production, which only further illustrates my point about Johnson being the more productive of the two players.

3 catches in his first 4 games, he wasn’t active until game 4, further illustrates what point? That he caught 3 passes in 4 games?
TJ had a very productive final 4 games in # of receptions. 14 of his season total of 20.
Did you ever wonder why he got so many more targets?
13 missed the last 2+ games (left game 14 injured) & 81 missed game 14.
So in recap his monster production of 6 receptions in 7 games then only increased because of players far ahead of him on the depth chart missed time produced 14 receptions in 4 games (3.5 per game) and 3 total TD (over 12 games which is good).

[like54ninjas]

Half of Johnson's targets this year have been intercepted.

And remember, according to chain Lawrence is obviously better than Herbert so can't blame the QB.

That will be Urban’s fault for play design.

[Guest]

Half of Johnson's targets this year have been intercepted.

And remember, according to chain Lawrence is obviously better than Herbert so can't blame the QB.

I said that Lawrence has a higher ceiling than Herbert. I never stated that it was guaranteed that Lawrence would reach his ceiling. Lawrence is stuck on a weak roster, which does not help him when compared to Herbert.

And as I have stated on multiple occasions, it is irrelevant what Johnson does for Jacksonville. What natters is what he proved he could do for us. Not sure why that very obvious point is so difficult to comprehend.

[equivocation]

I said that Lawrence has a higher ceiling than Herbert. I never stated that it was guaranteed that Lawrence would reach his ceiling. Lawrence is stuck on a weak roster, which does not help him when compared to Herbert.

And as I have stated on multiple occasions, it is irrelevant what Johnson does for Jacksonville. What natters is what he proved he could do for us. Not sure why that very obvious point is so difficult to comprehend.

How can they have a weak roster if they have Johnson?

:shrug:

[like54ninjas]

How can they have a weak roster if they have Johnson?

:shrug:

Who is buried deep on that weak roster. A whopping 29 total offensive snaps in 4 games.

[powderblueboy]

3 catches in his first 4 games, he wasn’t active until game 4, further illustrates what point? That he caught 3 passes in 4 games?
TJ had a very productive final 4 games in # of receptions. 14 of his season total of 20.
Did you ever wonder why he got so many more targets?
13 missed the last 2+ games (left game 14 injured) & 81 missed game 14.
So in recap his monster production of 6 receptions in 7 games then only increased because of players far ahead of him on the depth chart missed time produced 14 receptions in 4 games (3.5 per game) and 3 total TD (over 12 games which is good).

That's a final nail in the coffin type response.

[21&500]

I said that Lawrence has a higher ceiling than Herbert. I never stated that it was guaranteed that Lawrence would reach his ceiling. Lawrence is stuck on a weak roster, which does not help him when compared to Herbert.

And as I have stated on multiple occasions, it is irrelevant what Johnson does for Jacksonville. What natters is what he proved he could do for us. Not sure why that very obvious point is so difficult to comprehend.

I'll raise you a more obvious point...

it's difficult to comprehend because you're dismissing obvious evidence by calling it irrelevant, it's perfectly relevant and you know that, especially as a professional lawyer
if Johnson was balling out in Jax, you would be using that as evidence for what he could have potentially provided us, and you'd be right to do so.
In this case, his lack of production provides evidence for justification for getting cut.
does it prove anything? No. But certainly you can appreciate evidence even if it hurts your argument, right?