AFC West Updates

[RTPbolt]

Carr will get a few chances to go deep. They may have to max protect but i think without big plays their O wont score enough. Yes 3 seconds or less may be a plan to throw by but i think we will be looking for those throws.

[AK47]

This is a real possibility given their weakened oline of the Raiders. Carr will have to get rid of the ball in three seconds or less or scramble for yardage. Could be ugly for them if we continue to get to their QB quite frequently!

Carr is probably going back to dink and dunk mode if the line does not hold. We need to contain the run and Derwin needs to lock down Waller. We do those 2 things we can get to Carr.

https://www.raidersbeat.com/advanced-stats-show-raiders-offense-exploding-as-derek-carr-standing-longer-in-the-pocket/

[Heatmiser]

The premise of the Charger defense is to 'put a lid' on the field and FORCE dink and dunk and running plays. So the McDaniels offense, which is designed and schemed to play that way will go against the Staley defense, designed and schemed to force offenses to play that way. Execution is going to really matter and McDaniels, even though I strongly dislike him, is very strong on perfect execution at least he was as the NE OC. The wild card is Carr, who may not be happy dinking all the time.

TG

[richpjr]

The biggest worry for each team in the AFCW, according to this article from the Athletic:

Denver Broncos

The worry: Losing Vic Fangio as an elite defensive schemer and Mike Munchak as an elite offensive line coach hurts the Broncos more than anyone is talking about with so much focus on the new quarterback.

“Everybody is overlooking this, but they were doing it with smoke and mirrors on defense, and that was with Vic Fangio, one of the best defensive coaches and teachers in the league. Can they overcome losing Vic? There’s going to be a major drop-off. On top of that, you lose Mike Munchak, one of the best line coaches, just as you’re adding a quarterback (Russell Wilson) who holds the ball and puts a ton of pressure on his protection and maybe can’t escape like he once could.”

Las Vegas Raiders

The worry: There’s too much pressure on the offense to win shootouts because the defense does not improve sufficiently.

“I think cornerback is a concern for them in that division. What saves you is, you feel like you can impact the other team’s quarterback with what they have up front. But you are also banking on an aging Chandler Jones who is coming off a down season by his standards. I just think defense as a whole is a concern. This offense might be forced to win shootouts, and then there is a lot unknown about the offensive front. You are going to be protecting your offensive front through scheme, through system.”

Kansas City Chiefs

The worry: Trading Tyreek Hill for draft choices that helped restock the defense hurts the offense more than it helps the defense, especially in the short term.

“How good will they be on defense? And then two, wideout, how do they make up for missing Tyreek? I mean, they’ll still be good, but Tyreek just gave you another element. Your goal always is to have high-quality players and keep as many of them as you can. I think they made a mistake with Tyreek. He, more than any other receiver, is a difference maker. He dramatically changes the way people play against them, and I think they are going to drop off this year because he is not there.”


Los Angeles Chargers

The worry: The Chargers’ defense and running game won’t be as good as needed come playoff time.

“The defense looks a lot better on paper. Kyle Van Noy was a nice add in terms of the ability to get creative with the type of pressure you bring. But J.C. Jackson is already not healthy, and Khalil Mack is older, has missed games. I also wonder about their ability to be balanced when they want to be on offense because (Austin) Ekeler has had some durability issues too. Herbert can overcome that better than most, but can you overcome it in the postseason as easily? That would be a limiting factor for them.”

I think the KC and Denver worries are legit.

For the Raiders, their D does suck but I'm pretty skeptical that their O line isn't as big of, or even bigger issue than their defense and will hold up to a lot of shootouts.

For the Chargers, I would have expected RT to be a bigger issue. I feel a whole lot better about the RBs after adding Michel. The D seems kind of odd to focus on, but given how bad they were last year I guess I can understand it a little.

[Steve]

The premise of the Charger defense is to 'put a lid' on the field and FORCE dink and dunk and running plays. So the McDaniels offense, which is designed and schemed to play that way will go against the Staley defense, designed and schemed to force offenses to play that way. Execution is going to really matter and McDaniels, even though I strongly dislike him, is very strong on perfect execution at least he was as the NE OC. The wild card is Carr, who may not be happy dinking all the time.

TG

Carr makes as many big plays as any QB in football. But he makes a lot of mistakes trying to make those big plays, and a lot of those mistakes are not being patient and making poor decisions. Asking him to dink and dunk is going to be tough, it gives the D more chances to make the big plays. Plus the plays that get Carr in rhythm are mostly the big plays he gets off of shots downfield (or a lot are), which they don't want him to take/force. It just seems like there will eventually be a lot of friction coming. Which I am fine with, but I don't think everyone in love with the raiders sees it coming.

Wilson is very similar, although his Achillies heel is taking sacks more than anything else. Wilson loves to extend plays, but he leaves a lot of plays on the field with all the unnecessary sack yardage he takes. And there are just not many WC offenses that really click without a TE to really attack the middle of the D, and Denver may really miss Noah Fant. I think they have good prospects, but all are very raw, and better all around players than receivers (at least at this point).

[Steve]

The biggest worry for each team in the AFCW, according to this article from the Athletic:

************************************************** **********************************************
Denver Broncos

The worry: Losing Vic Fangio as an elite defensive schemer and Mike Munchak as an elite offensive line coach hurts the Broncos more than anyone is talking about with so much focus on the new quarterback.

“Everybody is overlooking this, but they were doing it with smoke and mirrors on defense, and that was with Vic Fangio, one of the best defensive coaches and teachers in the league. Can they overcome losing Vic? There’s going to be a major drop-off. On top of that, you lose Mike Munchak, one of the best line coaches, just as you’re adding a quarterback (Russell Wilson) who holds the ball and puts a ton of pressure on his protection and maybe can’t escape like he once could.”

Las Vegas Raiders

The worry: There’s too much pressure on the offense to win shootouts because the defense does not improve sufficiently.

“I think cornerback is a concern for them in that division. What saves you is, you feel like you can impact the other team’s quarterback with what they have up front. But you are also banking on an aging Chandler Jones who is coming off a down season by his standards. I just think defense as a whole is a concern. This offense might be forced to win shootouts, and then there is a lot unknown about the offensive front. You are going to be protecting your offensive front through scheme, through system.”

Kansas City Chiefs

The worry: Trading Tyreek Hill for draft choices that helped restock the defense hurts the offense more than it helps the defense, especially in the short term.

“How good will they be on defense? And then two, wideout, how do they make up for missing Tyreek? I mean, they’ll still be good, but Tyreek just gave you another element. Your goal always is to have high-quality players and keep as many of them as you can. I think they made a mistake with Tyreek. He, more than any other receiver, is a difference maker. He dramatically changes the way people play against them, and I think they are going to drop off this year because he is not there.”


Los Angeles Chargers

The worry: The Chargers’ defense and running game won’t be as good as needed come playoff time.

“The defense looks a lot better on paper. Kyle Van Noy was a nice add in terms of the ability to get creative with the type of pressure you bring. But J.C. Jackson is already not healthy, and Khalil Mack is older, has missed games. I also wonder about their ability to be balanced when they want to be on offense because (Austin) Ekeler has had some durability issues too. Herbert can overcome that better than most, but can you overcome it in the postseason as easily? That would be a limiting factor for them.”
************************************************** **************************************

I think the KC and Denver worries are legit.

For the Raiders, their D does suck but I'm pretty skeptical that their O line isn't as big of, or even bigger issue than their defense and will hold up to a lot of shootouts.

For the Chargers, I would have expected RT to be a bigger issue. I feel a whole lot better about the RBs after adding Michel. The D seems kind of odd to focus on, but given how bad they were last year I guess I can understand it a little.

The Atlantic worries:
Den: Fangio might not have been a great HC, but drafting Chubb has been a disaster, and they never gave him a QB. The front office let him down, and their D was still pretty good despite missing some key people due to injuries.

KC: I think KC felt like the key to their success is getting more weapons to help Mahomes, but Hardman has never been anything more than a distant 3rd WR, and that is better than Scantling has been. Again, both have great speed, but neither has ever produced better than a 3rd receiver type of production on teams that had a lot of other guys to focus on. JuJu SS looked like he was going to be an elite player in his 2nd year, and then really dropped off.

Could one of them blossom into a superstar? Sure. Will they, ... it seems unlikely. If they don't, then it is hard to see how KC is going to get teams out of dropping back 7 guys into coverage and keeping Mahomes in the pocket, which is what hurt their O last year.

Oakland: Too many places to start. Mostly I just think Oakland really responded to Bisaccia, and I don't think McHoodie is as good a HC. They still have a lot of holes on their roster and a lot of their better players are fairly one-dimensional.

The running game and D thing could certainly be problems, but there are plenty of teams that were not the best this or best that and still won SB. You can be a passing team and win a SB. You do need those other areas to help out, but the Rams didn't have a running game in the playoffs/SB last year and OBJ went down and they still won the SB against a pretty good D.

My worries

Denver is that they will be patient and run the ball, hitting a lot of plays off of boots and waggles, plus some straight drop back type of play action for big gains, so their lack of depth at WR and TE are not that big an issue (their 3rd WR was lost for the season). Then Gregory and Chubb will both finally be amazing, consistent pass rushers everyone thought they would be, so they can sit back and protect a lead.

KC is that Mahommes finds ways to spread the ball around to his WR and make enough plays to draw the coverage away from Kelce. On D that they only need to protect their offenses' big leads, so they don't have to play run D.

Oakland is that Carr will finally stop making so many stupid mistakes, take what offenses give him. Then they can keep mixing in run and pass, taking a huge amount of pressure off their OL, moving the ball and scoring consistently, so their D can let Jones and Croby pin their ear back and rush the QB.

For us, I just think overconfidence is going to be a problem. Even if we start strong, some good teams have screwed themselves out of the playoffs by buying into their own press clippings.

[richpjr]

For us, I just think overconfidence is going to be a problem. Even if we start strong, some good teams have screwed themselves out of the playoffs by buying into their own press clippings.

Considering how little success we have had as a team, I sure hope overconfidence doesn't kick in. I think having some hungry vets and some SB winners should help keep things a bit more even keeled.

[jamrock]

Considering how little success we have had as a team, I sure hope overconfidence doesn't kick in. I think having some hungry vets and some SB winners should help keep things a bit more even keeled.

If they saw the Bills game tonight they won’t be overconfident

[21&500]

If they saw the Bills game tonight they won’t be overconfident

I saw the Bills and saw something to realistically aspire to, even better.
Herbert can literally make all those throws and already is showing to have a higher football IB than the reckless Allen.
The Bills might have better overall talent but we're close, and real theoretically compete with them at our respective bests.

[Fouts2herbert]

I saw the Bills and saw something to realistically aspire to, even better.
Herbert can literally make all those throws and already is showing to have a higher football IB than the reckless Allen.
The Bills might have better overall talent but we're close, and real theoretically compete with them at our respective bests.

Allen is a beast! He’s got the Herbert skill set in terms of running, size, and arm but is more powerful and maybe a lot tougher too, he plays QB with a linebacker mentality and it’s impossible for me to root against the kid, I love watching him play with his crazy ass reckless style…Josh Allen is special he could theoretically play TE and maybe Edge at a high level, the guy is just a super gifted athlete…

Having said that, as a pure QB, I take Herbert over Allen without reservation…I say that because what Allen does is unsustainable long term, he’s already bucked the odds for over 4 seasons and it’s only a matter of time before it catches up to him with a big injury…What Herbert does is sustainable long term, he may not be as hot blooded, strong, or tough as Allen but he’s WAY more cerebral and smartly uses his physicality sparingly and selectively…

Herbert is what you’d get if you somehow combined Josh Allen and Tom Brady to make a more well rounded QB…

[Eurobolt]

Allen is a beast! He’s got the Herbert skill set in terms of running, size, and arm but is more powerful and maybe a lot tougher too, he plays QB with a linebacker mentality and it’s impossible for me to root against the kid, I love watching him play with his crazy ass reckless style…Josh Allen is special he could theoretically play TE and maybe Edge at a high level, the guy is just a super gifted athlete…

Having said that, as a pure QB, I take Herbert over Allen without reservation…I say that because what Allen does is unsustainable long term, he’s already bucked the odds for over 4 seasons and it’s only a matter of time before it catches up to him with a big injury…What Herbert does is sustainable long term, he may not be as hot blooded, strong, or tough as Allen but he’s WAY more cerebral and smartly uses his physicality sparingly and selectively…

Herbert is what you’d get if you somehow combined Josh Allen and Tom Brady to make a more well rounded QB…

Wasn't that Josh Allen who run without helmet in colleage game?

Ppl been saying he would get injured since draft, maybe he is super durable.

Buffalo playing like yesterday - extremely hard to beat team.

[Maniaque 6]

Everything the Bills did last night, the Chargers can do it.