2022 Official Chargers Season Discussion

[Caslon]

TT…pay da men. Don’t exploit Herbert. He likes being a Charger. Don’t ruin that. Keep it going. Don’t play it stupid fancy. Keep costly good continuity going. Don’t jumble things up. Don’t make us all feel sorry acquiring the likes of a Justin Herbert with what you do with him and surrounding talent. Just don’t.

[Bolt4Knob]

TT…pay da men. Don’t exploit Herbert. He likes being a Charger. Don’t ruin that. Keep it going. Don’t play it stupid fancy. Keep costly good continuity going. Don’t jumble things up. Don’t make us all feel sorry acquiring the likes of a Justin Herbert with what you do with him and surrounding talent. Just don’t.

My hope is a strategic plan to win the AFCWest and at worst a top 3 seed in the AFC in 2022. Just getting to the playoffs is not enough after this season. Thats setting the bar too low

Second, have a vision for roster construction. Truly try to get difference making talent like the Bengals did with Hendrickson, Ogunjobi and the DBs. Those players were all on their second contract in that 27-28 year old range. I get why they signed Harris, Bulaga and Joseph - they were cheaper veterans who filled three positions of need. Thats not going to be good enough - get players in their prime

I would rather see two players signed like that - than three older players signed. You can always find veteran depth after the draft or before the season when players want a job.

And lastly, this might have to be the year that in a battle of BPA or filling need - unless its totally skewed with a players talent, have to fill the needs: IDL, Edge, CB, RB are your top priorities (that is if you sign Jones, Nwosu, White and Williams, plus Hopkins, Aboushi, et, al). Granted, they filled a need with Tillery so you still have to have the talent meet the draft position.

See if Telesco has it in him to get it done

[gzubeck]

My hope is a strategic plan to win the AFCWest and at worst a top 3 seed in the AFC in 2022. Just getting to the playoffs is not enough after this season. Thats setting the bar too low

Second, have a vision for roster construction. Truly try to get difference making talent like the Bengals did with Hendrickson, Ogunjobi and the DBs. Those players were all on their second contract in that 27-28 year old range. I get why they signed Harris, Bulaga and Joseph - they were cheaper veterans who filled three positions of need. Thats not going to be good enough - get players in their prime

I would rather see two players signed like that - than three older players signed. You can always find veteran depth after the draft or before the season when players want a job.

And lastly, this might have to be the year that in a battle of BPA or filling need - unless its totally skewed with a players talent, have to fill the needs: IDL, Edge, CB, RB are your top priorities (that is if you sign Jones, Nwosu, White and Williams, plus Hopkins, Aboushi, et, al). Granted, they filled a need with Tillery so you still have to have the talent meet the draft position.

See if Telesco has it in him to get it done

He certainly threw mud at the wall on the defensive side of the team last season to see what sticks to the wall sort of thing. Way too many question marks there and Staley could do very little with that group.

:shifty:

[Caslon]

I’d like to see the Jerry Jones approach where you keep your top notch players. Whatever the cap space. Go over it. Continuity. Keep and spend.

[Velo]

I just watched a JH highlight video on you tube and all but two of the big, long passes were to M Williams. Somehow, he keeps getting deep. Everyone keeps saying replace him with some speed merchants but he's the best we have at catching the deep passes.

One more point - how many Very fast WR's will be available to us and can they catch?

The other thing about Mike Williams is that his after-the-catch speed is not the same as his timed speed. On several plays this season, after Mike caught the ball, he was suddenly the fastest man on the field. DBs couldn't catch him. Some players are like that. They have an extra gear in high-adrenaline situations that they are not able to access just running the 40 yd dash for timers. Jerry Rice, for example, ran a 4.59 40 (according to Bill Walsh) coming out of college. But we know, Chargers fans as well as anybody, that in game situations, especially with the ball in his hands, Rice was much faster.

[Caslon]

Freaking pay the man, already. So what if it makes news how much. Quit thinking Herbert and… Insert receiver here. Took four years, he’s at his prime. Be Jerry Jones, Spani. Come’on damnit!:troll:lol

[Steve]

I’d like to see the Jerry Jones approach where you keep your top notch players. Whatever the cap space. Go over it. Continuity. Keep and spend.

It depends on whether or not you like to let the inmates run the assylum. A lot of teams don't want to deal with the backlash from their fans, but it ends up getting them in trouble and it remains to be seen how well their fans deal with a year or two of squalor as the teams have to trash their rosters to get under the cap.

Right now the Saints are $75 million over the cap, Packers are $50 million over, and Cowboys are $21 million over. And at least the Packers and Saints can point to how much they have been forced to spend on QB lately. Those numbers are just to get under the cap at the start of the FA period, it does not include any money to resign any of their players they might want, or enough cap space to sign their draft picks. Fortunately those teams all did reasonably well, so that only amounts to an additional $6-8 million each.

The Cowboys have only had a year-ish of paying Dak Prescott (even his 2021 salary cap number was not that high). The Cowboys had Prescott on his rookie deal from 2016 to 2019. They had to pay the franchise salary in 2020. But they had a few years where they could front-load deals and get ahead and they didn't.

They have been paying with a credit card, and now they are so far behind the bill they can't catch up. They may be able to put things off a bit longer, but it is rapidly coming due. The Cowboys had to go through this before, prior to the last CBA. The Raiders got gutted too and it took a couple of years to get out from under all the bad deals. The Saints got through last year mostly because of Brees retiring, but this year they don't have nearly the choices to get under the cap. And some of their players have contracts where they don't gain any cap space if they release them, so if they do, it is just to get the space for the future.

You just have to ask yourself if you can live with gutting your roster for a couple of years every decade or if you want to exert some self-discipline and let some players walk that you might want to keep.

[Bolt4Knob]

It depends on whether or not you like to let the inmates run the assylum. A lot of teams don't want to deal with the backlash from their fans, but it ends up getting them in trouble and it remains to be seen how well their fans deal with a year or two of squalor as the teams have to trash their rosters to get under the cap.

Right now the Saints are $75 million over the cap, Packers are $50 million over, and Cowboys are $21 million over. And at least the Packers and Saints can point to how much they have been forced to spend on QB lately. Those numbers are just to get under the cap at the start of the FA period, it does not include any money to resign any of their players they might want, or enough cap space to sign their draft picks. Fortunately those teams all did reasonably well, so that only amounts to an additional $6-8 million each.

The Cowboys have only had a year-ish of paying Dak Prescott (even his 2021 salary cap number was not that high). The Cowboys had Prescott on his rookie deal from 2016 to 2019. They had to pay the franchise salary in 2020. But they had a few years where they could front-load deals and get ahead and they didn't.

They have been paying with a credit card, and now they are so far behind the bill they can't catch up. They may be able to put things off a bit longer, but it is rapidly coming due. The Cowboys had to go through this before, prior to the last CBA. The Raiders got gutted too and it took a couple of years to get out from under all the bad deals. The Saints got through last year mostly because of Brees retiring, but this year they don't have nearly the choices to get under the cap. And some of their players have contracts where they don't gain any cap space if they release them, so if they do, it is just to get the space for the future.

You just have to ask yourself if you can live with gutting your roster for a couple of years every decade or if you want to exert some self-discipline and let some players walk that you might want to keep.

I have no idea how the Chargers run their cap but if its true that Dean has cash flow issues - that can affect how a team works the salary cap. I bring up Mike Williams - its cheaper for Dean to franchise him for one year at 19m than sign him to a long term deal, lower his cap number and sign other players

You bring up the Packers and Saints - good examples. But look at the teams - they have been consistently competitive

The Chargers haven't been competitive. I don't think the Chargers need to be like the Saints and Packers but I do think, with a good spreadsheet and accountant, can manipulate the cap for the next three seasons - before Herbert really hits it big - to maximize cap space.

To me it starts with Mike Williams - either sign him or let him walk.

[Critty]

Joshua Palmer Pick No. 77: 33 rec 353 yds 10.7 y/r 4 TD

Amon-Ra St. Brown Pick No. 112 by Detroit: 90 rec 912 yds 10.1 y/r 5 TD

St. Brown quickly emerged as the Lions' best WR and led the team in all categories. Is he that much better than Palmer or was his production due to being pressed into service out of necessity? The Lions' other two main WRs are not even worth mentioning, they don't come close to comparing to Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. When you're a rookie behind a duo like that you're not going to get as many opportunities. Palmer did have his best game when KA was out, catching 5 of 7 for 66 yds and 1 TD.

Larry Rountree Pick No. 198: 36 carries 87 yds 2.1 ypc 1 TD

Kahlil Herbert Pick No. 217 by Chicago: 103 carries 433 yds 4.2 ypc 2 TD

Telesco can't seem to get backup RB right. Two misses in consecutive drafts. Maybe Rountree bounces back next season but I didn't see much from him as a rookie to be honest. Kelley is a bust; I don't know if either belong in the NFL; you can find better RBs among the undrafteds. WFT's UDFA RB Jaret Patterson had 68 carries 266 yds 3.9 ypc 2 TD

Also worth noting is that Elijah Mitchell came off the board four picks before Rountree. He's going to start for the 49ers in the NFC Championship game on Sunday. He had 207 carries for 963 yds 4.7 ypc 5 TD in just 11 games. He is leading the playoff field in rushing with 149 yds, though that only comes out 3.4 ypc. He's scored 1 TD. Maybe we just missed out there.

Over the years at RB. Telesco best RB Ekeler was a udfa. His trade up for Gordon got a solid back but not a great one. Kelley has no burst, Roundtree is okay. Justin Jackson has the burst and wiggle, just is an injury concern.

There are guys in this mid to late rds in this draft that I think would be good additions to the RB depth Chart. And they can cut Kelley who isn't worth a roster spot.
Jerome Ford. 3rd-4th
CJ Verdell. 4th-5th
Mateo Durant. 6th-7th

[Steve]

The point with the Saints and Cowboys is that they are both competitive teams now, and they will be gutted now. That is the, which is the price they have paid to stay competitive for the last few years.

The advantage of signing Williams to a long-term deal is that you would get to structure it the way you want. It could be an issue with all of the players we sign, but it is more a timing thing than anything. It is hard to lose money in a sport that has a TV contract like the NFL. Some teams don't have the offseason cash flow to pay out big bonuses, but with the TV contract, they have a pretty good amount of guaranteed cash flow. And with a new stadium, even with the deal we have, it is really hard to lose money. Granted, if anyone can, I could see the Spanos clan doing it.

You can get around not having a lot of cash on hand by giving guaranteed salary in the future instead of cash bonuses. That is more about having a lot of cash on hand, than cash flow per say. My gut impression is that you have to give a player more money if you are not giving a huge bonus, but any guaranteed money is worth more than salary, and that is what players and agents crave. I don't think it is that big an issue unless the reports that the Chargers are really losing a lot of money are true.

What we really want to do this season is to try and get ahead on the salary cap because of Herbert. We have a huge advantage having a QB getting less than $10 million per season for the next 2 years. If we are smart, we can front load some of the contracts in the short term, and then have more caps space for later on, when Herbert is going to cost $35 - $45 million per season (or more since that is the current going rate).

[21&500]

10 years, 10% cap for number 10

[Steve]

There are a couple of things with Williams

He is a big, physical receiver who is a bit of a longer strider who can get deep and win a lot of jump/contested passes. The downside of his game are that he is constantly playing through nagging injuries, and he is not very good in the short game which limits how many passes and the impact he can have. He did improve in that area towards the end of the season.

Williams is already considered one of the best FA prospects.

Pluses
1). He has had decent production in the past, and he is a youngish player in his prime.
2). As pointed out, he is a player who can get deep and gets yards in chunks.
3). He wins a lot of contested passes.
4). PFF looked at comparable receivers who were FA in the past, and WR similar to Williams in the past tend to keep their value fairly well. The ones whose production falls off (also a fair #) don't fall off that much.

Bad
1). A lot has been made of our lack of speed on O. Willaims can get deep, but his speed doesn't scare anyone (4.5 40 time). That is not to minimize things, just that a player with elite speed scares defenses in a way that guys like Williams or Allen do not.
2). If you believe in comps, Williams has probably peaked. If you are expecting Williams production to improve, there is no historical analog that suggest that he will (according to PFF). Of course there is a first time for everything.
3). He may not miss a lot of games, but he seems like he is playing through injuries. His slip in production this season was after he hurt his knee (https://chargerswire.usatoday.com/20...williams-knee/).

I don't think anyone is saying that Willaims should not be re-signed. The issue is how much cap space should be spent on him, vs upgrading other positions, given that we have Palmer coming on and Guyton has the kind of speed that adds another dimension to an O. The downside of that is that Palmer and Guyton are not the players that Williams are, even if they have that potential.