Justin Herbert - Bolts Franchise QB Official Discussion

[Heatmiser]

Popper posted something in his game article that I had a hard time believing so had to look it up: Herbert has 12 game winning drives in his career. Patrick Mahomes, who has been in the league 3 years longer than Herbert, also has 12 game winning drives.

Would have have believed that?

https://www.pro-football-reference.c...gwd_career.htm

I bet 9 of the 12 are against the Chargers!

I think our only hope is to send Andy Reid as much unhealthy food as we can.

TG

[jubei]

And in the 1st year and 2nd year of their rebuild, respectively after sweeping the front office and coaching staff. Both have a bucket of stink at the QB1 position.

I like carr...how he curls up into a fetal position when Bosa and Mack come callin.

[cmplxgal]

[Maniaque 6]

And they are 6-5 !

[cmplxgal]

[Formula 21]

QB Tiers revisited: Jalen Hurts’ jump, Russell Wilson’s fall and everyone in between

Mike Sando
Dec 15, 2022

115


Geno Smith, Colt McCoy, Baker Mayfield and Brock Purdy are the starting quarterbacks for NFC West teams in NFL Week 15.

Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff and the since-injured Jimmy Garoppolo rank among the NFL’s top five in expected points added (EPA) per pass play.

Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan and Russell Wilsonrank outside the top 20.

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So, yeah, you could say some things have changed since 50 NFL coaches and evaluators stacked all the veteran starters for my 2022 Quarterback Tiers survey heading into the season. I checked in with some of the voters in recent weeks to get updated perspectives on some of the more interesting QBs.

Below you’ll find tier-by-tier discussion, with quarterbacks listed in the same tiers and order they were voted into before the season. Some would surely be higher or lower if voters were collected again, but in other cases, unexpected results on the field haven’t changed what coaches and evaluators thought entering the season. Their comments here are granted anonymity for competitive reasons and for their candor. Tier 1


A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure passing situations. He has no real holes in his game.

2022 Tier 1 QBs (Voted Before Season)

1	Aaron Rodgers	50 | 00 | 00 | 00 | 00	1.00
2	Patrick Mahomes	49 | 01 | 00 | 00 | 00	1.02
3	Tom Brady	42 | 08 | 00 | 00 | 00	1.16
4	Josh Allen	39 | 11 | 00 | 00 | 00	1.22
5	Justin Herbert	36 | 14 | 00 | 00 | 00	1.28
6	Joe Burrow	33 | 17 | 00 | 00 | 00	1.34

Rodgers, Brady and Justin Herbert aren’t producing like Tier 1 quarterbacks. Voters are largely blaming factors beyond the quarterbacks themselves.

Rodgers’ 13-game statistical totals this season are the worst of his 15-year starting career for yards per attempt and EPA per pass play.

“There is something going on there,” a defensive coordinator said. “Everything just looks different. Obviously, without Davante (Adams), it looks different. Even some of his throws look different and the picks he had this year, those are all things that were not happening in years past. He still is Tier 1. It’s just weird.”

It’s been so bad, the Packers’ expectation for scoring has, on average, diminished with every Rodgers pass play.

“I have to put Aaron Rodgers in Tier 1,” another voter said, “because he is not only calling let’s say 60 percent of the plays himself, but the first read, he is identifying as not there maybe another 25 percent of the time, and it’s not schemed up, and he is looking at the second and third progression and he’s then going to the third progression and he is making the play that never would have been there if anybody else was in his position, and it still looks bad.”

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Rodgers’ diminished weaponry has been blamed for the Packers’ offensive decline. That could be obscuring another factor.

“I think a lot of it has to do with, in years past, they had (Nathaniel) Hackett and (Luke) Getsy staying until 11 p.m. to come up with ideas, and working with Aaron to help him scheme it up,” an offensive coach said. “They have had brain drain there, and go look at the roster. Their offensive coordinator is the offensive line coach. There are fewer people to help (Matt) LaFleur do all this stuff. That is why their offense looks like s—.”

For Brady, there are parallels between this season and his 2019 struggles with New England after Rob Gronkowski retired and the Patriots’ weaponry flatlined.

Tampa Bay has played without as many as four of its offensive linemen from last season. Gronkowski retired again. The coaching staff is different. Brady went through a divorce and was sued for promoting cryptocurrency. His “big-time throw” rate, as charted by Pro Football Reference, stands at 4.7 percent. That is down from last season and well down from his career-best 7.1 percent rate in 2020, but still tied with Patrick Mahomes for sixth-best this season, and much higher than it was in his final season with New England (3.3 percent).

In other words, Brady can still make the throws. He just isn’t going to overcome his current predicament, same as Rodgers in Green Bay. Does that make him Tier 2?

“He looks good, but he is the most emotional player ever — we have all seen him cry a thousand times — and it feels like going through the divorce was weighing on him, and he probably knew the FTX (cryptocurrency) lawsuit was coming,” a voter who competed against Brady in the AFC East said. “He has 37,000 other things going on, and he’s also designing an offense and trying to execute an offense without the linemen he had before.”

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This voter said he thought Brady would be reborn next season, on a different team.

As for Herbert, we can point to injuries that claimed his left tackle and, at various points, his center and two starting receivers. There was also a rib injury. That’s not all. Multiple voters said they thought the Chargers had regressed from a scheme standpoint.

“Herbert looked way different to me this year, and I felt like it was a scheme thing,” a defensive coach said. “He wasn’t able to cut it loose and get downfield and do some of the things and use his arm talent. There was a lot of checkdown, there was a lot of getting skittish. Even when Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were there, I felt they were not calling it or not letting him progress to that part of the read. Not what I would have expected in Year 3.”

The other Tier 1 quarterbacks are more straightforward to analyze. Voters who thought Allen risked the football too much for inclusion in Tier 1 can point to his seven interceptions since Week 8. Voters who had him in Tier 1 can point to everything else.

[WindsorUK]

Interesting F21 that even an NFL defensive coach is calling out the Chargers offensive scheme.
I guess all those here complaing about Lombardi are spot on.

[WindsorUK]

What's the latest on Justin's rib injury?
I can't imagine it's 100% healthy but has he mentioned how it feels recently?

[Heatmiser]

Interesting F21 that even an NFL defensive coach is calling out the Chargers offensive scheme.
I guess all those here complaing about Lombardi are spot on.

Yeah except that the things he listed as excuses all lead to what he said he is seeing. And when he says “even with Allen and WIlliams on the field” he is talking about 26 snaps. 26. That was all for those two simultaneously until the Dolphins game. No Lombardi apologist here, but I wonder sometimes if the anonymous quoted experts are actually watching the games or just reading and looking at box scores. If this defensive coach works for a team that does not play the Botls this season I really doubt he has dug into the team much. They just don’t have the time to do it.

TG

[richpjr]

What's the latest on Justin's rib injury?
I can't imagine it's 100% healthy but has he mentioned how it feels recently?

The last I had heard was 2 or 3 weeks ago when he said it felt better but still moved if he pressed it. I'm sure it's going to take the offseason for it to fully heal but he sure looks a lot more fluid and it appears as if he isn't quite as nervous about getting hit - which is good because of how much pressure he has been under the past couple of weeks.

[cmplxgal]

https://www.ocregister.com/2022/12/16/chargers-justin-herbert-leading-with-arm-legs-as-well-as-his-heart/

Chargers’ Justin Herbert leading with arm, legs as well as his heart

A couple of emotional celebrations during and after Sunday night’s victory over the Dolphins showed a new side of the normally reserved quarterback

By Elliott Teaford | eteaford@scng.com | Orange County Register
PUBLISHED: December 16, 2022 at 3:33 p.m. | UPDATED: December 16, 2022 at 3:45 p.m.

COSTA MESA — Justin Herbert pierced the calm, cool and collected veil that always seemed to shield him no matter the down and distance, no matter the score, no matter the pressure from defenders eager to throw him off his game, no matter the many questions fired at him from reporters.

Herbert scrambled for a 10-yard gain during a pivotal, late-game drive during the Chargers’ victory over the Miami Dolphins on Sunday night at SoFi Stadium. He popped up after sliding safely past the first-down marker, after converting a third-and-8 play, and pointed toward the end zone.

First down.

When it was done, and the Chargers had taken a 23-17 victory from the Dolphins that enhanced their playoff chances, Herbert entered the victorious locker room and, to the cheers of his teammates and coaches, he spiked the souvenir football given to him by the “Sunday Night Football” crew.

Bedlam ensued.

“There was just a lot of excitement in the locker room and everyone was kind of looking at me to do something, so I felt like that was the right move,” Herbert said Friday. “In hindsight, I probably wouldn’t have spiked it, but it was a good move. It was a lot of fun. The guys enjoyed it.”

Why wouldn’t you do it in hindsight?

“I didn’t want to disrespect the football,” he said, smiling. “It had the logo on it.”

It was a rare show of emotion and celebration for Herbert, who often plays things so close to the vest that it’s difficult to know his true feelings. He is unfailingly polite and friendly with reporters, for instance, but only rarely reveals much about what he’s thinking about subjects great and small.

So, it was unusual to see him let down his guard on Sunday.

“One of the main focuses I’ve had is to just have fun,” he said. “On that third-down conversion, that’s a big moment for us. To be able to celebrate it and go back with your teammates, that’s what I should have done. Those are big moments and you have to take advantage of those.”

Herbert said center Corey Linsley laughed when they got back to the sideline after the drive stalled and Cameron Dicker kicked what proved to be the clinching 28-yard-field goal with 2:40 remaining. Herbert said Linsley “was excited for that moment” of emotion from his teammate.

“It’s a long season and for us to be able to stay with it and stay focused and stay dialed in, it takes a lot of effort,” Herbert said. “For us to play together and be motivated, you have to have fun. I think that part of it is huge. To have the guys celebrate together … I think we’re at our best when we’re able to do that.”

It also could be an indication of Herbert’s rapid growth in only his third NFL season after a standout career at the University of Oregon. It could be a sign of his willingness to lead the Chargers – not just by his ability to make plays with his arm and his legs, but also with his heart.

Herbert is the NFL’s second-leading passer with 3,706 yards this season, but there’s more to leadership than statistics. Celebrations such as the ones Herbert displayed during and after the Chargers’ victory over the Dolphins, certainly can fire up a team chasing a playoff berth.

It can’t be all business all the time.

Or it shouldn’t be, anyway.

“Speaking for myself, there’s a big impact when your best player is having fun out there,” Chargers coach Brandon Staley said. “You want your players to have fun playing the game. There’s so much at stake each and every game, especially when you play a prime-time game when the whole world is watching.

“When you play like that, you should be able to celebrate because you’ve worked so hard to earn it. So, I want all of our players to play like that, to compete like that. For him to do that, speaking for myself, it makes me all that more confident. If that’s how Justin is feeling, I want him to feel that.

“He’s a competitor 99.9 percent of the time. That .1 percent, where that war daddy comes out, that’s special. That’s competition.”

INJURY REPORT

Safety Derwin James Jr. was listed as doubtful to play Sunday against the Tennessee Titans because of a quadriceps injury that also prevented him from playing last week against the Dolphins. … Cornerback Bryce Callahan (groin), defensive lineman Sebastian Joseph-Day (knee/back) and right tackle Trey Pipkins III (knee) were each listed as questionable to play.

[WindsorUK]

The last I had heard was 2 or 3 weeks ago when he said it felt better but still moved if he pressed it. I'm sure it's going to take the offseason for it to fully heal but he sure looks a lot more fluid and it appears as if he isn't quite as nervous about getting hit - which is good because of how much pressure he has been under the past couple of weeks.

Cheers Rich