2021 Draft Discussion - Bolts Pick 13th

[TexanBeerlover]

The problem with Brown is that he is a franchise RT, not a franchise LT. He speaks of wanting to play LT based upon the legacy of his father, but his raising of this issue for the first time in a contract year suggests the presence of another motivation. He is going to want big time LT money soon despite not being a proven franchise LT. So trading our first round pick for Brown seems like a bad idea.

I am fine not forcing a first round LT selection. While we can never really know what is going to happen until it unfolds on draft day, the way things are shaping up, our franchise LT is not likely to be the BPA or even close to being the BPA at #13 overall. Sewell is almost certain to be off the board. Slater is not an NFL LT and he is unproven at OG. Darrishaw may be a legitimate LT, but he is not good value at #13. I do not favor reaching for him.

I prefer the concept of not passing on the true BPA at #13 and addressing the OT issue in rounds 2 and 3 if we are staying put at #13. I see the total draft haul as being much greater by using that approach.

Doing so looks likely to leave us with an elite faller if we are lucky (Pitts, Parsons) or one of the CBs (Farley, Surtain, Horn). McShay did a mock recently where he had Sewell falling to us at #13, but I just can't see that happening. If the elite faller is there, that is our pick. If not, then we should take one of the CBs as they clearly carry more value than any realistically available true LT in this draft, which excludes Slater.

I think Slater is a potentially valuable OG, but his value is uncertain and, as a secondary factor, with the signing of two free agent OGs, CB is now a position of greater need. Because of the positional uncertainty with Slater, I value the CBs more than Slater.

So, I see one of the CBs as the straight line, most probable result for pick #13. And, honestly, I would be fine with any of them. Farley has the highest ceiling, but is also the greatest risk. Horn has the second highest ceiling, but likely carries the second greatest risk. Surtain seems the most reliable, but with the lowest ceiling. That dynamic makes for an interesting choice between the three.

2020 season OBJ took 100% of the Left Tackle reps. His first two seasons 2018 & 2019 100% Right Tackle reps. He filled in for Ronnie Stanley who they just extended a rather large sum to play LT, forcing OBJ to play RT, hence he has requested a trade.

[like54ninjas]

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Right there with you brother.

[Guest]

2020 season OBJ took 100% of the Left Tackle reps. His first two seasons 2018 & 2019 100% Right Tackle reps. He filled in for Ronnie Stanley who they just extended a rather large sum to play LT, forcing OBJ to play RT, hence he has requested a trade.

Yes, he took all of the LT snaps and the Ravens viewed him as not worthy of maintaining that position. He allowed 3 sacks with the team attempting the fewest passes in the entire NFL. Had he surrendered the same sack rate playing for us, he would have yielded 5 sacks. That is not the kind of elite player that warrants the surrender of a first round pick. He is not a bad player, but he is not worth a first round pick, much less #13 overall.

Also, Brown has demanded a trade. He wants out of Baltimore since he cannot beat out Stanley. He is, therefore, a known malcontent and that lowers the player's trade value.

He is in the final year of his contract and is sure to want LT money (which is why he is insisting on playing LT in case anyone is missing that point) in 2022, so unless the team is prepared to extend him, re-sign him, or franchise tag him for LT money, you are talking about a one year rental.

Under those circumstances, he might be worth a 4th or 5th round pick under the theory that we might get just about that much back for him as a compensatory pick in 2023 if he actually does get LT money from someone. The one year rental cost of a competent, but not special pass protector versus the two-year delay in getting the 4th or 5th round pick is probably just about a wash, so I could see that as being worth it.

I think we can do better by passing on Brown.

[Formula 21]

Duke Tobin,
Bengals Director of Player Personnel,
says they "won't get greedy"
as far as trading out of the #5
spot in this here draft goes.

I think that's nice...

Is he really that dumb? Id get extra greedy.

[DragonIce]

Lol.....apples and oranges. We aren't the Texans....that team is trash, roster, coaches, and front office....Watson and Watt aside....and Watt is gone, while Watson most definitely isn't getting a "Happy Ending"....don't know how you can compare the two.

Huh?! Texans were 10-6 in 2019.

Houston sunk their ship by dumb GM decisions:
-Prizing running backs over elite wide receivers (old running backs at that!)
-Sabotaging their draft to get targeted prize players

We act like Houston, we will look like Houston.

Should Chargers trade up and spend future picks? Just say no.

[Bolt4Knob]

Is he really that dumb? Id get extra greedy.

My guess Tobin is trying to get people to want to trade up just so they can see what value the Bengals would derive if they did move down. If there is a QB out there - exploit it

[Fleet]

Tevin Jenkins just said he sees himself on the right side. But admits hes been practicing on the left side in preparation for the draft.

[Bolt4Knob]

Tevin Jenkins just said he sees himself on the right side. But admits hes been practicing on the left side in preparation for the draft.

Didn't get the memo that LT make more than RT .... keep walking. Next.

[Boltnut]

Wow, a lot of great posts in the last 6 pages. And shout out to the new guy, nflballers, for a compelling argument to trade up for Sewell.

My favorite post is this one...

Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas

The Chargers are in search of their left tackle of the future and one name who isn’t in consideration as much anymore is Cosmi’s. However, after some his Pro Day, the team might have him high on their draft boards.

Cosmi measured in at just nearly 6-foot-6 and 314 pounds, with 33 inch arms. He then ran a blazing 4.85 40 yard dash; with a ten-yard split at 1.68 seconds, and his 20-yard at 2.75 seconds.

He jumped nearly 10 feet in his broad jump and 30 inches in his vertical jump, then capping his day off with 36 reps on the bench press.

Cosmi’s pass-blocking technique will need to improve and he will need to get stronger, but due to his length, natural balance, athleticism, and movement skills, he has a high ceiling.

Cosmi reminds me of Anthony Castanzo (only more athletic)... a guy Tom Telesco drafted as Colts Director of Player Personnel with the 22nd pick of the 2011 nfl draft.


Also remember that TT believes in the Bill Polian way of building a team. You build through the draft and you look for players that fit your scheme. IMO, Cosmi fits that scheme (even better than Darrisaw). I'm not so sure TT will be willing to trade this year's 1st round pick and next year's 1st round pick to get Sewell.

Having those 2nd-4th round picks will allow TT/Staley an opportunity to get 4 defensive players that fit his scheme (maybe even 4 starters. I think Staley could find just the right prospects rounds 2-4 and a lot of you have brought up names that fit really well: Asante Samuel, Jevon Holland, Melifonwu, Molden, Stokes, Campbell, Adebo, Sterns, Elerson, Robinson... (along with all of the other great prospects you guys have un-earthed)

Having now seen this amazing list of 2nd-4th round prospects... I just can't picture us taking a 2nd/3rd round OT with that kind of talent on the board. The OT's left certainly wouldn't be BPA. This list also illustrates the type of talent you bypass if you give up picks to trade up, also.

[Bolt Dude]

Pretty interesting that McShay has neither Slater nor Darrisaw in his top 20.

Sounds like he’s been talking with WuDai.

[Bolt4Knob]

Wow, a lot of great posts in the last 6 pages. And shout out to the new guy, nflballers, for a compelling argument to trade up for Sewell.

My favorite post is this one...



Cosmi reminds me of Anthony Castanzo (only more athletic)... a guy Tom Telesco drafted as Colts Director of Player Personnel with the 22nd pick of the 2011 nfl draft.


Also remember that TT believes in the Bill Polian way of building a team. You build through the draft and you look for players that fit your scheme. IMO, Cosmi fits that scheme (even better than Darrisaw). I'm not so sure TT will be willing to trade this year's 1st round pick and next year's 1st round pick to get Sewell.

Having those 2nd-4th round picks will allow TT/Staley an opportunity to get 4 defensive players that fit his scheme (maybe even 4 starters. I think Staley could find just the right prospects rounds 2-4 and a lot of you have brought up names that fit really well: Asante Samuel, Jevon Holland, Melifonwu, Molden, Stokes, Campbell, Adebo, Sterns, Elerson, Robinson... (along with all of the other great prospects you guys have un-earthed)

Having now seen this amazing list of 2nd-4th round prospects... I just can't picture us taking a 2nd/3rd round OT with that kind of talent on the board. The OT's left certainly wouldn't be BPA. This list also illustrates the type of talent you bypass if you give up picks to trade up, also.

Castanzo is my comp for what I am hoping for with the 13th pick (even though AC was picked 22nd by Indy). But just an above average Left Tackle Maybe the bar is low but if you get that type of player in R1 - really allows the flexibility the rest of the draft - though CB should be R2 pick.

[Fleet]

Pretty interesting that McShay has neither Slater nor Darrisaw in his top 20.

Sounds like he’s been talking with WuDai.

These look to be done in a similar fashion to fantasy football. They are literally taking 11 offensive and defensive players each to field a team.

1. Lawrence
2. Pitts
3. Chase
4. Smith
5. Sewell
6. Waddle
7. Parsons
8. Slater
9. Surtain
10. AVT


And so on.