2022 Official Bolts Draft Superthread

[gzubeck]

Dude is a special teams captain IMHO! He's not just a wasted player out on the field after he kicks it. Monster QB meet Monster kicker! LOL!

[TexanBeerlover]

After reading the analysis for the Chargers, I think saying Telesco was the worst of the West was a little misleading to say the least.

Sometimes the truth hurts, sometimes the pundits are just wrong.

Imagine for a moment Aboushi didn’t go down and right side of like held up better.

Imagine Telesco addressed RT in the third round (Spencer Brown).

Really close but no cigar, protecting the franchise, the absolutely most important hole to fill unfilled.

Have every confidence Raimann can become a dominant RT with coaching. Wood right, won’t be out of the blocks, yet fastest off the blocks, foot quickness, ability to set the reset elite. Only 33” arm length, where have we heard that before? You draft traits, you draft the future you draft to protect your franchise.

[dmac_bolt]

Don't draft a fucking punter in the 3rd. There's like 5 good or better punters coming out this year. Get one in the 7th.

Araiza is the best punter to ever kick a pig. (But i agree, upgrading practice squad DBs and DLs, oh and LBs … is a more important mission)

[dmac_bolt]

Remember that net punt includes the poor punt coverage. I'm not saying Long is that great, but his gross average is middle of the pack or better in each of his seasons.

He kicks low and he takes way too long to kick it. He’s gotta go. he’s not good enough period.

[dmac_bolt]

Sometimes the truth hurts, sometimes the pundits are just wrong.

Imagine for a moment Aboushi didn’t go down and right side of like held up better.

Imagine Telesco addressed RT in the third round (Spencer Brown).

Really close but no cigar, protecting the franchise, the absolutely most important hole to fill unfilled.

Have every confidence Raimann can become a dominant RT with coaching. Wood right, won’t be out of the blocks, yet fastest off the blocks, foot quickness, ability to set the reset elite. Only 33” arm length, where have we heard that before? You draft traits, you draft the future you draft to protect your franchise.

Not addressing RT and betting the Beluga Beached Whale was criminal. Most of us said it before the season, I was hardly alone.

[sonorajim]

Dude is a special teams captain IMHO! He's not just a wasted player out on the field after he kicks it. Monster QB meet Monster kicker! LOL!

Who needs a great punter?
Araiza is easily this years best punter, one of history's best. No one else is close. His ability to flip the field will help produce Ws in close games vs a killer D.

[Leslie Grossman]

Question does playing next to Joey Bosa change the dynamics of Jordan Davis' game and make both players more effective, meaning the sum is greater than the part in regard to the Dline???

Looking forward to the combine. Vita Vea and Haloti Ngata were 12th overall picks. Ngata was certainly worth it and so far Vea as well.
Haven't watched much tape on him yet but apparently it is at least close to ass good as theirs. We know Davis sat out a lot of plays. Don't know if Vea did at Washington?
If his combine numbers are close I could get on board with Davis at 17.

[Fouts2herbert]

We had cap space, I wouldn't have given him any additional cash above his guarantee.

I have a question about this and I’m not being a jackass I honestly don’t know. Had the Chargers cut their losses with Bulaga last spring and someone else claimed him would the guaranteed money on his deal have come from the Chargers or the other team? I know that would be an unlikely scenario because of what he was due. I guess my question was would their have been a chance of erasing that guaranteed money from the charger books assuming someone else had interest?

I was not a fan of the signing due to his health record but after the 2020 season ended I thought it was reckless to keep him because of other reasons. Primarily because I felt keeping him created the illusion that we didn’t have a huge hole at RT which we clearly did. And he also cost another player a roster spot before final cuts. Maybe someone like T-billy or Cortez Broughton. Many (including me) thought Bulaga could not be counted on and it predictably became a reality. You didn’t need a crystal ball to see that one coming.

After the 2021 draft 3 experienced OTs hit the streets, two from the bears (leno&massie and boy did the bears regret that decision) and one from the WFT (moses). At that point none was due to make more than 7mil in 2021 season, I believe we could’ve claimed Moses for 4.6mil for 2021. Nobody grabbed those guys off waivers and none of them signed for more than 4.5 mil last year. Leno and Moses started the entire year Leno for WFT and Moses for the jets, all three of those men would’ve been a LOT better than what we had all year. The chargers can’t even claim that those guys would’ve ruined the compensatory pick formula because they were post draft cuts. Look at the beatings that herbert took in the games where norton struggled. There’s no way it wouldn’t have been worth it to spend 4-6mil more from last years cap in order to do as much as possible to protect the kid. The chargers are lucky he didn’t get “2020 joe burrowed” out there.

the problem with having a bad FA signing like Bulaga is compounded when the organization doubles down on dumb and doesn’t cut it’s losses and moves on from a guy like that after year 1. Even if they still had to pay him the 7mil guaranteed for 2021 season, at least cutting him at least opens up a roster spot for someone else that might make a contribution.

[Steve]

Looking forward to the combine. Vita Vea and Haloti Ngata were 12th overall picks. Ngata was certainly worth it and so far Vea as well.
Haven't watched much tape on him yet but apparently it is at least close to ass good as theirs. We know Davis sat out a lot of plays. Don't know if Vea did at Washington?
If his combine numbers are close I could get on board with Davis at 17.

Ngata was certainly worth it, but he was a much, much better player, and has the stats to prove it . He also never played NT, he was a DE for the Ravens, sliding to DT over the OG in their 4 man line. He was a good interior penetration player, who could get upfield and attack the QB and get penetration vs the run game (Ngata totaled 107 tackles, 17.5 tackles for a loss, and 6.5 sacks in 2 seasons at Oregon). He played that way in college. There is no resemblance between how Ngata and Davis ACTUALLY play. The only comparisons are superficial, based on how they look on paper. And it is worth repeating, he was NEVER a NT for the Ravens. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haloti_Ngata

Vitea Vea played almost every down in the games I saw him play in Washington. He played a lot of downs for such a big guy. He was also somewhat productive as a pass rusher in college, although he was pretty lazy about it. He did the usual thing where he let the OL block him, see what the QB does, then shed the block and run him down. That works well for a lot of college pass rushers because so many college QB hold the ball too long and college OL are not nearly as good as NFL OL are. But when they go up against NFL OL, EVERY guy is the best OL from his college team (or an all-star if there were multiple NFL players on the same college roster), they can sustain their blocks a lot longer, and the QB don't hold the ball nearly as long as college players do. Even though he provides some pass rush and penetration ability, he only plays about 50% of the snaps for TB.

Some more comps

Danny Shelton (12th pick for Cleveland in . He was another one of the big impossible to block guys who is out there. He was starting to turn into a great player for the Browns, but he has gotten sloppy, he gets no penetration, add no pass rush, and basically just takes up space along the line. It is true he doesn't get pushed around that much, but that just means teams can run at the hole he is defending. He doesn't get double teamed that much, and is mostly a wasted space when the offense throws the ball on early downs. In 7 seasons in the NFL, he is on his 4th team, and that includes a year where he was turning into one of the better run stuffers in the NFL. Now he just takes up space, which is what it looks like Davis would do.

Dontari Poe. He ran a sub 5.0 40 at 340+ pounds. Was a decent pass rusher, but was never more than average as run defender despite his size. He basically just stood up and leaned on the OL, especially after he left KC. Is out of the NFL right now, after being cut by a Cowboys team that desperately needs help at DT. 4 teams in 8 seasons after being drafted 11th overall by KC in 2012.

Terrance Cody. He was 6'4" 345, but was really just too fat to play. He was another leaner who just stood up and leaned on the OL on every snap. He was in hot water with the Ravens about his lazy style of play even before his legal problems led them to terminate his contract. No one gave him a 2nd chance after his jail time. Even though he was a borderline dominant player in college, he got his ass kicked pretty well by almost every OL in the NFL.

John Jenkin. He was considered the top NT in the 2012 NFL draft. Was selected in the 3rd round by NO, but has never done much. His listed weight was 354lb in college, but he admits he was in the low 370's for his senior season, and last 40 lbs prior to the draft (he was 348 at the combine). He has been decent at keeping the weight off, and is still an NFL player, but has only been a regular starter 1 season after the guy in front of him got hurt, and is season to season now. He has played for 6 teams in 9 seasons, and was with the Bears 2x (in 2017 and 2020). He is still a sloppy, ineffective player, even though he is huge (plays at around 335lbs).

I can save you some of the suspense in the combine. Davis is going to run a very, very good 40 time for a guy as big as he is. I would probably put money down on him beating Poe's 4.98 40, although they can both move. I have never seen a big guy run as well as he does in a straight-line, and that includes the previous champ, Poe. He is not going to do quite so well in the lateral agility and quickness drills, but the big guys never do. I expect he will do well in the drills, you can see on tape that he is an amazing athlete, no suprise there.

But again, the story isn't about the his measurables in the underwear olympics. Go watch his play. He is slow off the ball which really hurts his chances of being getting a good pass rush. He spends a lot of time leaning on people, instead of throwing them around. That's fine in college, he is a better athlete than most of the guys listed above, and much, much better than the guys he is playing against. But he is just not very productive. Everyone who is gushing about how great he is all about what a great athlete he is. How does he play? And those are college OL. People think he is going to suddenly transform into this dominant player against NFL competition?

The big difference between Ngata and the list above is that Ngata had good technique and played hard. Most of the ones above had poor technique and always got away with being the best athlete on the DL. They can get by being lazy and big when they are in college, but when they go up against NFL OL who all have some semblance of technique you have to play well.

Someone is going to fall in love with Davis and he is going to get drafted pretty early. Fine. If someone thinks you can take him and turn him into a good player, more power to them. But his success in the NFL is going to have little to do with his size and raw athletic ability, but how hard he is willing to work at developing NFL level of technique. Look at the list of all the guys who were amazing and so dominant stuff, because all of the players on this list were the same way. MOST of them are going to be failures.

On top of that, we need MUTIPLE players to fix our run D. Adding a big NT in the middle of our run D, even if he turns out to be the next Jamal Williams (as smaller guy who grew into a 350 lb NT), we still need a DE to pair with them, and some LB and DB to fill the other gaps along the DL. This draft stupidity about plugging big sloppy players is just so fucking stupid, and we hear it year after year after year, and there is NO EVIDINCE that is fucking works.

If you want a big imposing DL to clog the middle, get a biggish guy, put him on the right kind of diet, throw him into a good weight program and grow him yourself. Take a guy who has some technique like Jamal Williams, Ted Washington, Terrance Knighton (he was 320lbs, but played a lot of his career at 350), Keith Traylor (he was a 250 lb LB when he was a rookie). You don't draft big effective NT, they develop into them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtiC...Jo%C3%A3oBasso - this is Davis best game from 2020, but the rest are all games as a senior. His best game as a pass rusher
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBdq...nnel=CristianF

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8a4Nlk9IRtI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6C2z...=DoABarrowRoll

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=icHYX857TXM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h_Gq...=DoABarrowRoll

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A2nBXSPFRE4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tw4HsPpvhk

[Steve]

I have a question about this and I’m not being a jackass I honestly don’t know. Had the Chargers cut their losses with Bulaga last spring and someone else claimed him would the guaranteed money on his deal have come from the Chargers or the other team? I know that would be an unlikely scenario because of what he was due. I guess my question was would their have been a chance of erasing that guaranteed money from the charger books assuming someone else had interest?

I was not a fan of the signing due to his health record but after the 2020 season ended I thought it was reckless to keep him because of other reasons. Primarily because I felt keeping him created the illusion that we didn’t have a huge hole at RT which we clearly did. And he also cost another player a roster spot before final cuts. Maybe someone like T-billy or Cortez Broughton. Many (including me) thought Bulaga could not be counted on and it predictably became a reality. You didn’t need a crystal ball to see that one coming.

After the 2021 draft 3 experienced OTs hit the streets, two from the bears (leno&massie and boy did the bears regret that decision) and one from the WFT (moses). At that point none was due to make more than 7mil in 2021 season, I believe we could’ve claimed Moses for 4.6mil for 2021. Nobody grabbed those guys off waivers and none of them signed for more than 4.5 mil last year. Leno and Moses started the entire year Leno for WFT and Moses for the jets, all three of those men would’ve been a LOT better than what we had all year. The chargers can’t even claim that those guys would’ve ruined the compensatory pick formula because they were post draft cuts. Look at the beatings that herbert took in the games where norton struggled. There’s no way it wouldn’t have been worth it to spend 4-6mil more from last years cap in order to do as much as possible to protect the kid. The chargers are lucky he didn’t get “2020 joe burrowed” out there.

the problem with having a bad FA signing like Bulaga is compounded when the organization doubles down on dumb and doesn’t cut it’s losses and moves on from a guy like that after year 1. Even if they still had to pay him the 7mil guaranteed for 2021 season, at least cutting him at least opens up a roster spot for someone else that might make a contribution.

Bulaga's contract (https://overthecap.com/player/bryan-bulaga/1092/)
Total was 3 year, $30 million, with $19.25 guaranteed at signing. $10 mill was a signing bonus.

2020 - $1.5 mill base salary (fully guaranteed), $3,333,333 protated bonus - total cap # was $4.833 million
2021 - $7,750,000 base salary (fully gauranteed), $3,333,333 protated bonus - total cap # was $11.083 mill
2022 - $8,250,000 base salary, $3,333,333 protated bonus, and a roster bonus of $2.5 mill on the 3rd day of the league year.

So, if we had cut Bulaga last season, we would have still had to pay him his full salary, and saved nothing last year. We would also have had $3 1/3 million in pro-rated portion for the 2 years of his salary. If it was pre-June 1st, then all of it would have counted against the cap. So last year, if we had cut him, at best, we would have broken even if he was cut after June 1st, or cost the Chargers $3,333,333 off of last season's cap if we got rid of him prior to June 1st. There was no way to save any money by cutting Bulaga last year.

The only way to get Bulaga off the books is to trade him. We would have saved $1,083,334 off of the salary cap if we could have gotten anything in trade. We would still have had his pro rated bonus accelerated.

But if a team had claimed signed him, you might have gotten some offset money, but when teams have offset language in the contract a team claiming him knows that and only pays them league minimum, so we would get caught paying the remainder. For Bulaga, that is was $1,075,000, so we would still have owed him the remainder of his salary ($6,675,000). It actually would have been less than that, since no team would have claimed him right away, so it would only be a pro-rated amount for how many games he would have been on the roster.

I know that there was the cut Bulaga crowd, but it would not have done much to help the situation. You would have freed up a roster spot, but that was it.

The flip side is that if you don't guarantee the money, you don't sign the FA. Which is partly why I think signing FA is a bad idea. The bigger part is they just aren't that good once you sign them. Better to sign guys who get cut as cap casualties or trade for them. Those guys generally play at a much higher level, since they have something to play for.

As far as the street FA, Morgan Moses would have been an upgrade over Norton. Storm was not that good, but his grade is only slightly worse than Massie if you factor in his 3 dreadful games (2xCrosby and Parsons), which is more a function of Massie not facing any really good pass rushers during his season (he left the Dallas game with an ankle injury).

[dmac_bolt]

Who needs a great punter?
Araiza is easily this years best punter, one of history's best. No one else is close. His ability to flip the field will help produce Ws in close games vs a killer D.

If you watched every Aztec game, then you know he personally individually all by himself won the Aztecs several games (ok, with the defense) last year and covered for the gross failure of their horrid offense for a really long time.

Punter worth a Rd3 - not hardly. I keep having him there for me to pick in my draft sims in Rd6 btw.

[Fouts2herbert]

Bulaga's contract (https://overthecap.com/player/bryan-bulaga/1092/)
Total was 3 year, $30 million, with $19.25 guaranteed at signing. $10 mill was a signing bonus.

2020 - $1.5 mill base salary (fully guaranteed), $3,333,333 protated bonus - total cap # was $4.833 million
2021 - $7,750,000 base salary (fully gauranteed), $3,333,333 protated bonus - total cap # was $11.083 mill
2022 - $8,250,000 base salary, $3,333,333 protated bonus, and a roster bonus of $2.5 mill on the 3rd day of the league year.

So, if we had cut Bulaga last season, we would have still had to pay him his full salary, and saved nothing last year. We would also have had $3 1/3 million in pro-rated portion for the 2 years of his salary. If it was pre-June 1st, then all of it would have counted against the cap. So last year, if we had cut him, at best, we would have broken even if he was cut after June 1st, or cost the Chargers $3,333,333 off of last season's cap if we got rid of him prior to June 1st. There was no way to save any money by cutting Bulaga last year.

The only way to get Bulaga off the books is to trade him. We would have saved $1,083,334 off of the salary cap if we could have gotten anything in trade. We would still have had his pro rated bonus accelerated.

But if a team had claimed signed him, you might have gotten some offset money, but when teams have offset language in the contract a team claiming him knows that and only pays them league minimum, so we would get caught paying the remainder. For Bulaga, that is was $1,075,000, so we would still have owed him the remainder of his salary ($6,675,000). It actually would have been less than that, since no team would have claimed him right away, so it would only be a pro-rated amount for how many games he would have been on the roster.

I know that there was the cut Bulaga crowd, but it would not have done much to help the situation. You would have freed up a roster spot, but that was it.

The flip side is that if you don't guarantee the money, you don't sign the FA. Which is partly why I think signing FA is a bad idea. The bigger part is they just aren't that good once you sign them. Better to sign guys who get cut as cap casualties or trade for them. Those guys generally play at a much higher level, since they have something to play for.

As far as the street FA, Morgan Moses would have been an upgrade over Norton. Storm was not that good, but his grade is only slightly worse than Massie if you factor in his 3 dreadful games (2xCrosby and Parsons), which is more a function of Massie not facing any really good pass rushers during his season (he left the Dallas game with an ankle injury).

I thought the team claiming him would automatically inherit the whole contract guarantees and all. But that’s why I asked because I didn’t know for sure. I still think he hurt the team by being a place holder for a position he wasn’t going to fill anyways. With bulaga cut not only a roster spot clears up but also the chargers go after another RT to fill the need last offseason, massie, leno, or moses would’ve been much better than norton and would not have broken the bank either.

you see NFL teams hedge their bets all the time in case another player has injury concerns. Believing that Bulaga would pull thru was putting way too much faith on pipkins and norton to fill in in case he couldn’t and I don’t have that kind of faith. But clearly the chargers did we saw the results and Herbert felt them too.