2020 NFL Draft Discussion

[dmac_bolt]

Sure. I'll give you Ryan Leaf and James Mouton for Charlie Joiner and Kevin Greene.

We get your point that there are mistakes in every round but the odds are not the same each round and cherry picked data is a fraud on the community. You’re now elevating the hyperbolic exaggeration and spending valuable forum pages to convince us that all rounds are the same, there are equally great players at every picks, and effectively all picks are basically the same?

we all know that defies any basic inspection or common sense. No point continuing this silliness.

[wu-dai clan]

True. The guys drafted in the past 3-4 drafts should now be in position to earn starting jobs.
This is a deeper than normal class as well.

I see the value in drafting OT @#6. If Simmons & Young are off the board Thomas & Becton are next in my cluster ahead of Brown, Okuda, & Kinlaw.

Damn. Look at all those blue chippers.

Trade down !!

[like54ninjas]

Damn. Look at all those blue chippers.

Trade down !!

Also a good idea.

[Formula 21]

Damn. Look at all those blue chippers.

Trade down !!

If someone will swap #1s this year and give us next year’s #1, I’d jump on it. Then we could trade up next year for a better qb with 3 #1s as bait. Its possible, there will be a lot of difference makers at 6 that teams will covet.

[like54ninjas]

If someone will swap #1s this year and give us next year’s #1, I’d jump on it. Then we could trade up next year for a better qb with 3 #1s as bait. Its possible, there will be a lot of difference makers at 6 that teams will covet.

If we are looking at QB with #6 and the prospect(s) we covet are gone then makes a ton of sense.
Trade down into the teens and get an extra 2020 - 3rd & 5th plus a 2021 1st.
We can draft a top prospect at a PON, OL, CB, LB, DT, in the teens.

[alex8080]

i would eally like to know their plans for adderley. if its s or cb. if s, then cb early. not sure about paying davis $3mm (except that they don't have another to fill>

[sonorajim]

Brown is a top 5 talent that meets a LAC need: dominant DT. I think some may feel a reluctance due to having a young Tillery & Jones but Brown can start over them day 1.
We've all seen teams ride a great DL front 4 to a SB win. Take a shot if he's there for us.

[sonorajim]

i would eally like to know their plans for adderley. if its s or cb. if s, then cb early. not sure about paying davis $3mm (except that they don't have another to fill>

I suspect that Lynn wants Adderley to earn a spot. Milo has developed some good-great DBs.
IMO the intention is to challenge Nasir and see if he win a starting role at FS or CB.
I wouldn't pass on Okudah because we have NA but I believe he lessens the need for drafting CB depth.

[Boltjolt]

Hmm, Bengals like Herbert? Sounds like them.

[like54ninjas]

Brown is a top 5 talent that meets a LAC need: dominant DT. I think some may feel a reluctance due to having a young Tillery & Jones but Brown can start over them day 1.
We've all seen teams ride a great DL front 4 to a SB win. Take a shot if he's there for us.

Derrick is a beast without question.
Kinlaw is not far behind and more position flexibility.

[Boltnut]

I do not disagree with you. I just think if Simmons or Young fall to us then a must. I think QB will be the pick but if we draft Thomas or Becton then I’m good.

Chase Young is probably the best player in the draft. If he's at #6, then I'd take him. But he won't be there. I'm not as high on Simmons. Behind Young, he's the most freakish athlete in the draft. But I also look at a players impact. He'd most likely play WILL for us (upgrade Kyzir White). Could he line up in the slot? Yes. Could line up at MIKE in nickle/dime? Yes. Could he line up at safety? Yes. But would he impact a game the way a QB, DE, or OT could? IMO, no.

The best recent comparison I see for Simmons is Roquan Smith. He went #8 in 2018 draft. He's not quite as big/fast as Simmons, but his instincts and recognition are better (which make up the 0.1 speed difference). He plays on an absolutely stacked defense! The Bears did improve their record from 5-11 to 12-4 after his drafting. But then fell to 8-8 last year. So where was the problem? The defense went from 9th (2017) to 1st (2018) to 4th (2019) in points against. But 1st to 4th doesn't explain the 12-4 to 8-8 drop in record. The offensive side of the ball better explains the fluctuation in record. In 2017, the Bears were 29th in points scored. In 2018, they were 9th. In 2019...? Back down to 29th.

Did they lose players through FA? Not really. Jordan Howard moved on to Philly, but was replaced by David Montgomery. Taylor Gabriel got dinged up. But Anthony Miller and Cordelle Patterson were there to pick up the slack (although Patterson mainly utilized as PR/KR). The only real changes that occurred along the offense were injuries to Trey Burton and Kyle Long.

Could a TE and an OG cause such a drop in record...? In the Bears' offense... I'd say yes. Rely on the run to set up the pass (which is what AL says he'd like to do). Even though the Bears lost 2 receivers to injury (Burton/Gabriel) they continued to throw with greater frequency in 2019 (434 ---> 516). Why not run the ball more often? IMO, the loss of Kyle Long affected their ability to run the ball effectively. Bobby Massie also lost 6 games due to injury.

These analytics seem to disqualify my posit... "OT's are a position that affect a team's record/effectiveness more than the WILL position". Unless you look at the 2 different ways teams build OL's. The Bears build their OL from the inside out. Daniels, Whitehair, and Long are relatively high pick IOL (2nd/2nd/1st) while their OT's (Massie/Leno) are later round (4th/7th). Why not draft OG in 2nd round...? If we could count on Pouncey to return to 2018 form, I'd consider this option. But the better way to build this OL, IMO, is to build it from the outside in. We now have a bonafide RT in Bulaga. We need 1 draft piece (OT) as opposed to 2 draft pieces (LG/OC). And (the biggest reason)... I'd much rather attack divisional foes (Den/KC/LV) in the run game at the edges... their IDL's are very strong, while their edges are soft. Not to mention, we have RB's better suited to attack the edges.

Sorry for the long post...

[Bolt4Knob]

Derrick is a beast without question.
Kinlaw is not far behind and more position flexibility.

I like Kinlaw a lot. Big body, grew up homeless, bounced around a bit with high school, JCs and College - he might have untapped potential still. Maybe not at 6 but a trade back target for sure.