AFC West Updates

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Fuck Denver

Aside from the HC and QB, I find other weaknesses on Denver. Their run game isn't that great. Their best WRs are injury prone. Some parts of their O-line is suspect. They are going to miss Noah Fant. On Defense they have many good talent. But there's parts of their roster on defense that are questionable.

[Formula 21]

AFC West Projections: Chiefs favored, but Chargers, Broncos, Raiders in the mix





By Austin MockAug 18, 2022






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The AFC West is this year’s “Division of Death”. Yes, the Chiefs are still the favorite after winning the division for the past six years, but the rest of the division is right there.
The Chargers and Broncos are right on the Chiefs’ heels, in fact. Both the Chargers and Broncos made major offseason acquisitions to bolster their rosters, which included Denver acquiring Russell Wilson. And the Raiders, they’re not too far back either. They’re fresh off a playoff berth in 2021 and acquired the best wide receiver in football, Davante Adams, this offseason. This division is going to be brutal to win but is every NFL fan’s dream.
I’ll be using my NFL projection model and simulating the NFL season 100,000 times to take a deep dive into the AFC West and how likely each team is to win the division as well as make the playoffs in the 2022 season.
Kansas City Chiefs

• Mock’s odds to win the AFC West: 44.1%
• BetMGM’s odds to win the AFC West: +160 (38.5%)
• Mock’s odds to make the playoffs: 77.3%
• BetMGM’s odds to make the playoffs: -225 (69.2%)

If Things Go Right:
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs figure out a more efficient play style while not being blitzed and earn their second ring in four seasons. Mahomes was blitzed on just 14.8% of dropbacks in 2021, per Pro Football Focus, and it seems the league has found his weakness. Mahomes averaged just 7.0 yards per attempt while not being blitzed, which is a rather pedestrian. I’m sure head coach Andy Reid and Mahomes have been looking for new ways to exploit teams that aren’t blitzing, and I have no reason to believe two of the best in the game won’t be able to figure that out.
Frank Clark turns back the clock and becomes a productive pass rusher, and George Karlaftis proves to be one of the best rookie pass rushers. Chris Jones is fantastic and Danny Shelton is an intriguing addition, but pressure from Clark and Karlaftis would go a long way for the Chiefs defense. In 2021, per Pro Football Reference, the Chiefs had the fifth-highest pressure rate on defense (26.4%) while finishing third-to-last in sack percentage (4.8%). Clark and Karlaftis should help improve that sack percentage.
If Things Go Wrong:
The issue with the Chiefs in the Mahomes era has been the defense. They haven’t been able to field a defense good enough to carry the offense when the offense can’t get things going. In 2018, they gave up 31 points in regulation, at home, to see their season end. The 2020 season was no different, as they gave up 31 points in a blowout Super Bowl loss, and 2021 saw them give up 36 points to the Bills, at home, in a playoff win. Per TruMedia, the defense has ranked 31st, 18th, 19th and 23rd in defensive EPA/Play during Mahomes’ career as a starter. If they don’t move toward the league average, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to make it through a tough AFC.
The loss of Tyreek Hill and his big-play ability isn’t made up by the additions of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore as the Chiefs lose another home playoff game and experience another disappointing end in the playoffs. If the Chiefs defense isn’t able to play at a league-average clip, the Hill-less offense could stall just enough for the Chiefs season to come to an early end.
Chiefs Super Bowl Projection:
My model gives the Kansas City Chiefs a 6.5% chance to win the Super Bowl, which is fifth-best in the NFL.
Los Angeles Chargers

• Mock’s odds to win the AFC West: 27.1%
• BetMGM’s odds to win the AFC West: 250 (28.6%)
• Mock’s odds to make the playoffs: 63.8%
• BetMGM’s odds to make the playoffs: -160 (61.5%)

If Things Go Right:
A rebuilt defensive front makes the Chargers defense go from 27th in EPA/Play, per TruMedia, to a league-average unit or better on their way to the first Super Bowl win in franchise history. Khalil Mack and Sebastian Joseph-Day will complement Joey Bosa and spark a big improvement in one of the worst defensive lines in the NFL last season.
Justin Herbert takes the next step and joins elite company at the quarterback position. Honestly, he was already there last year. Herbert ranked fourth in EPA/Play per dropack according to TruMedia, placing him right above Tom Brady. Any improvement by Herbert and this Chargers offense will make it one of the best, if not the best, in the NFL. My model projects the Chargers offense as the fifth-best in the league.
If Things Go Wrong:
The Chargers become Chiefs-lite and the defense doesn’t improve enough and the offense gets tripped up because of it. This results in an early playoff exit or even missing the playoffs because of the competitiveness of the division.
Variance. Brandon Staley is one of the most aggressive coaches in the league, and though his methods are backed by data to improve his team’s chances of winning, variance can uproot all problems. A couple plays don’t go your way and things can swing heavily against. Though this works both ways, this will only be a talking point if things go poorly for the Chargers.
Chargers Super Bowl Projection:
My model gives the Los Angeles Chargers a 4.4% chance to win the Super Bowl, which is 10th-best in the NFL.
Denver Broncos

• Mock’s odds to win the AFC West: 19.9%
• BetMGM’s odds to win the AFC West: +260 (27.8%)
• Mock’s odds to make the playoffs: 54.8%
• BetMGM’s odds to make the playoffs: -140 (58.3%)

If Things Go Right:
Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler stay healthy and have a coming-out party with new quarterback Russell Wilson. Jeudy and Hamler have a ton of potential and plenty of skill, so they should flourish with a quarterback of Wilson’s caliber throwing their way. Pair those two receivers with Courtland Sutton and you have a quality WR room that could help the Broncos take home the AFC title.
The addition of Randy Gregory allows the Broncos pass rush to be well above average after posting average- to below-average metrics last season. It’s imperative that you can get after the quarterback in this division. Gregory and Bradley Chubb are able to live in opposing backfields as the Broncos have a top-10 defense in EPA/Play for the first time since 2017, per TruMedia. Also, don’t sleep on Baron Browning in his new role as a pass rusher.
If Things Go Wrong:
Patrick Surtain II regresses after a stellar rookie season and the Broncos secondary is a liability, causing them to miss the playoffs. The point totals in some of these AFC West games could get a little crazy with the offensive firepower throughout the division. If Surtain takes a step back, you’re probably going to see average corners across the board for the Broncos. Kareem Jackson was not very effective in 2021, and although Justin Simmons is quite good, will he be good enough to keep this secondary afloat without an above-average corner?
The Broncos don’t take any major strides, and Wilson proves to not be the missing piece to the puzzle. Because of how stacked this division is, the Broncos could be an above-average team and not make the playoffs. My model ranks the Broncos at 10th-best in the NFL but projects them to make the playoffs just 55% of the time. There will be no room for letdown games this season.
Broncos Super Bowl Projection:
My model gives the Denver Broncos a 3.5% chance to win the Super Bowl, which ranks 15th-best in the NFL.
Las Vegas Raiders

• Mock’s odds to win the AFC West: 8.9%
• BetMGM’s odds to win the AFC West: +650 (13.3%)
• Mock’s odds to make the playoffs: 32.8%
• BetMGM’s odds to make the playoffs: +180 (35.7%)

If Things Go Right:
Derek Carr thrives with Davante Adams to become one of the league’s most lethal combos as the Raiders contend for a deep run in the AFC playoffs. Carr has been impressive over the past few years, but there are questions about whether he can take a team to the next level. Adams just might be what he’s needed. Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow already were assets in the passing game, but adding Adams allows Carr to have plenty of options to throw to on every down. Carr hasn’t had a true WR1 in years, maybe even in his entire career, so he’s able to take a jump into the next tier of quarterbacks.
If Things Go Wrong:
The defense doesn’t make any improvement from a unit that ranked 26th in EPA/Dropback (rbsdm.com), and the Raiders don’t even sniff the playoffs. Sure, they made the playoffs last season with the defense playing that poorly, but the AFC and the division have improved. The Raiders won’t be able to survive a horrid pass defense playing two games apiece against Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson.
The offensive line doesn’t hold up and leaves Carr out to dry too often. The Raiders offensive line was poor last year, and the biggest disappointment was first-round pick Alex Leatherwood. Leatherwood was rated as a bottom-three offensive tackle by Pro Football Focus and that’s just not going to cut it. As fantastic as Kolton Miller is, Leatherwood playing to that level will certainly sink this offensive line with the pass rushers in the division. Leatherwood did post three of his best five PFF game grades in his final four games, so maybe something started to click late in the season. If not, things could get ugly.
Raiders Super Bowl Projection:
My model gives the Las Vegas Raiders a 1.7% chance to win the Super Bowl, which ranks 21st in the NFL.

We are so close yet so far away. We need more help like the LAR did last year. We need to trade for more talent. Getting an ORT and an ILB would provide positive returns. Don't stop now TT, go for the golden ring. Do not accept losing the AFCW again this year. Just don't.

[Bolt-O]

Raiders trade QB Nick Mullens to the Vikings for a conditional 7th. Likely backup now Jarrett Stidham, who used to be in NE with McDaniels.

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Most teams who won their division 6 consecutive years haven't exceeded that. The only teams who have are the Patriots from 2009-2019 and Rams from 1973-1979.

I think the end of KC's reign on the AFC West is coming.

[Velo]

In 2013 in the 2nd to last game that Carr and Adams played together at Fresno State, they lost to San Jose State (my alma mater) 62-52. Carr got panicky late in the game and started pressing it to Adams. An SJSU LB picked off Carr trying to hit Adams over the middle and that sealed the game. It was devastating for Fresno State. The loss knocked them out of BCS rankings and bowl contention. That is my memory of Carr and Adams together in college. And I think Carr has been a panicky QB in his NFL career. Remember what Bosa said about him after the first game victory last season - Carr "gets shook" if he starts feeling pressure. When the Raiders needed Carr to throw a TD pass in the closing moments of the playoff game in Cincy last season, Carr threw an INT. (Contrast that to how big Herbert came up in the 4th Q of the Week 18 game. Herbert absolutely, positively had to throw 2 TD passes and convert a two-pointer in order to keep the Chargers in the game - and he did just that.)

The Raiders made some off-season splashes by acquiring Adams and signing Chandler Jones. But McDaniels neglected the OL. They are depending on OT Alex Leatherwood, the Raiders' 2021 first round pick (the next OT off the board after Slater :shifty to play a major role on their OL this season. Leatherwood sucked as a rookie and he's sucking in the preseason. As Chargers fans, we are very aware of the pitfall of loading up with talent at the skill positions while neglecting the OL. If you can't protect the QB or open holes for the RB, it doesn't matter how good you are at QB/WR/RB/TE - the offense is going to struggle against defenses that dominate in the trenches. So I am not buying into the Raider hype, and I fully expect the Chargers' front four - with its new additions - to make life hell for Carr and the Raiders' offense Week 1.

What do you think?

[sonorajim]

In 2013 in the 2nd to last game that Carr and Adams played together at Fresno State, they lost to San Jose State (my alma mater) 62-52. Carr got panicky late in the game and started pressing it to Adams. An SJSU LB picked off Carr trying to hit Adams over the middle and that sealed the game. It was devastating for Fresno State. The loss knocked them out of BCS rankings and bowl contention. That is my memory of Carr and Adams together in college. And I think Carr has been a panicky QB in his NFL career. Remember what Bosa said about him after the first game victory last season - Carr "gets shook" if he starts feeling pressure. When the Raiders needed Carr to throw a TD pass in the closing moments of the playoff game in Cincy last season, Carr threw an INT. (Contrast that to how big Herbert came up in the 4th Q of the Week 18 game. Herbert absolutely, positively had to throw 2 TD passes and convert a two-pointer in order to keep the Chargers in the game - and he did just that.)

The Raiders made some off-season splashes by acquiring Adams and signing Chandler Jones. But McDaniels neglected the OL. They are depending on OT Alex Leatherwood, the Raiders' 2021 first round pick (the next OT off the board after Slater :shifty to play a major role on their OL this season. Leatherwood sucked as a rookie and he's sucking in the preseason. As Chargers fans, we are very aware of the pitfall of loading up with talent at the skill positions while neglecting the OL. If you can't protect the QB or open holes for the RB, it doesn't matter how good you are at QB/WR/RB/TE - the offense is going to struggle against defenses that dominate in the trenches. So I am not buying into the Raider hype, and I fully expect the Chargers' front four - with its new additions - to make life hell for Carr and the Raiders' offense Week 1.

What do you think?

1. F**** the 'Turds.

2. Our D will control this game.

[richpjr]

In 2013 in the 2nd to last game that Carr and Adams played together at Fresno State, they lost to San Jose State (my alma mater) 62-52. Carr got panicky late in the game and started pressing it to Adams. An SJSU LB picked off Carr trying to hit Adams over the middle and that sealed the game. It was devastating for Fresno State. The loss knocked them out of BCS rankings and bowl contention. That is my memory of Carr and Adams together in college. And I think Carr has been a panicky QB in his NFL career. Remember what Bosa said about him after the first game victory last season - Carr "gets shook" if he starts feeling pressure. When the Raiders needed Carr to throw a TD pass in the closing moments of the playoff game in Cincy last season, Carr threw an INT. (Contrast that to how big Herbert came up in the 4th Q of the Week 18 game. Herbert absolutely, positively had to throw 2 TD passes and convert a two-pointer in order to keep the Chargers in the game - and he did just that.)

The Raiders made some off-season splashes by acquiring Adams and signing Chandler Jones. But McDaniels neglected the OL. They are depending on OT Alex Leatherwood, the Raiders' 2021 first round pick (the next OT off the board after Slater :shifty to play a major role on their OL this season. Leatherwood sucked as a rookie and he's sucking in the preseason. As Chargers fans, we are very aware of the pitfall of loading up with talent at the skill positions while neglecting the OL. If you can't protect the QB or open holes for the RB, it doesn't matter how good you are at QB/WR/RB/TE - the offense is going to struggle against defenses that dominate in the trenches. So I am not buying into the Raider hype, and I fully expect the Chargers' front four - with its new additions - to make life hell for Carr and the Raiders' offense Week 1.

What do you think?

Carr is what he is - a guy who can put up some good numbers, but isn't a QB that can carry a team. Smack him around a bit and he falls apart - remember him crying on the field? Adding Adams obviously helps any QB, but it was a steep price for a WR who turns 30 this year. He does have the weapons on O, so there is no excuse for him.

The new coaching staff is a big wildcard. Has McDaniels learned anything from his Bronco flameout? How long will it take them to get up to speed on new schemes?

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I messed up on my previous post. But I edited and it's fixed now.

There are worse QBs than Carr who won the SB. But they had the supporting cast around them to get it done. The Raiders made moves of their own to improve, but they are still bad in certain areas. Their secondary is still suspect.

[Velo]

1. F**** the 'Turds.

2. Our D will control this game.

:cheers: I sincerely hope we aren't just drinking the :koolaid: though.

[jamrock]

:cheers: I sincerely hope we aren't just drinking the :koolaid: though.

Possible.

I'm not over confident against the Raiders after what they did to us in thew final game. They've got a lot of weapons and a a guy we couldn't block

[richpjr]

Possible.

I'm not over confident against the Raiders after what they did to us in thew final game. They've got a lot of weapons and a a guy we couldn't block

Do they have anyone that can block Mack and Bosa? Let's see if Carr can elevate his game like Herbert did under an unrelenting rush. I'm guessing not.

[Shock&Awe]

KC are the favorites to win the division until we prove we can go out and take it from them. And I do like our chances.