Chargers at Raiders Pre Game Thread (Wk 13)

[Velo]

Chargers have 312 completions, 2nd best.

Herbert has 6 completions of 40yd plus, 4th best.

When you consider that Herbert has been without WR 1-2-4 and TE 2 most of the season, and he himself has been battling a rib injury since Week 2, this is remarkable.

They have a philosophy to use the short pass as extension of run game. By doing this it waters down the air distance yards. So looking at that metric and seeing a low yards per attempt is not surprising.

I wish more fans/pundits would understand this.

[chargeroo]

Great post. Though I'd like to point out that MANY of our short passes are not just to save ribs and set up longer passes later. No, many of these are last-second checkdowns because the original option (maybe options) weren't open (or Herbert didn't see).

I'd just love to see receivers get more space either through talent or design. Cause Herbert can sure hit 'em!

I should add that I think we do run it too much on first down (or it sure feels that way). If we had more success, fine. But we usually run it up the gut for nada, setting up 2nd and long.

I don't need to see haymakers over and over. But, hell, let's see some like we saw his rookie year, when he had a FAR worse OL.

I'm not sure we did have a worse OL then. With this year's OL we can't run the ball and Herbert is often under duress. Is that better? Zion looked real good for the early games but he's gone downhill of late. Meantime we lost a pro-bowl LT and our RT is playing on a bad knee and our Center has been in and out of the lineup. We don't have a decent running game and everyone we play knows it.

[jamrock]

The line has moved to -1.5 Chargers.

Linsley in concussion protocol. Pipkins hurt. Could be down to 2 of the original 5 OL.

[Topcat]

The raiders didn’t pick up his 5th year option. He is on a mission to lead the NFL in rushing and cash in

Yep...just like Tillery...

[gzubeck]

Linsley in concussion protocol. Pipkins hurt. Could be down to 2 of the original 5 OL.

We cannot draft enough oline people outside of the first round. Keep drafting 3 oline until we're stocked to the brim and sending good players to the practice squad. I'd rather just pay for good defensive linemen than try drafting them. Boom or bust too many times there.

[FoutsFan]

I'm not sure we did have a worse OL then. With this year's OL we can't run the ball and Herbert is often under duress. Is that better? Zion looked real good for the early games but he's gone downhill of late. Meantime we lost a pro-bowl LT and our RT is playing on a bad knee and our Center has been in and out of the lineup. We don't have a decent running game and everyone we play knows it.

It becomes real noticeable with Johnson when Lindley is not in next to him to help him out either physically or strategy wise.

[SK21209]

Chargers have 465 pass attempts which is 3rd highest in NFL.

Chargers have 250 rushing attempts which is 4th lowest in NFL.

Chargers have 312 completions, 2nd best.
Chargers have passed 215 more times than they have run it. 2nd biggest difference in NFL.
Only Tampa has passed it at a higher rate with 224 more passes than runs.
Herbert has 6 completions of 40yd plus, 4th best.
The league leaders have 9.
Tua has 6 like Justin.

Herbert has 35 completions of 20 plus yards, 6th best in the league. Tua with his high flying offense has 38. Only 3 more. And his WR have been healthy. Mahomes is head and shoulders above all other QBs here with 52.

One would think Tua would have much more 20plus and 40plus completions. Yet he doesn't. He is nearly identical to Herbert numbers for the big chunk gains.

Chargers are one of the most pass heavy teams in all the NFL and the numbers show that to be true. Literally top 3 in pass attempts and bottom 4 in run attempts.

They have a philosophy to use the short pass as extension of run game. By doing this it waters down the air distance yards. So looking at that metric and seeing a low yards per attempt is not surprising.

Anyway. Chargers are literally one of the most pass happy teams in all NFL and yet fans seem to thing we run it too much.

Bombs away needs super speedy flankers. And even then you would only toss a few a game because the defense is likely giving you the underneath stuff. Deep throws mean pass blocking has to hold up a second longer. Is it good enough to do that. It's a low percentage high risk play to go bombs away all day. Sacks and turnovers are just as likely as completing it.
Herbert will be getting hit more to play the game this way.

You want to set up your deep shots. It's a fight on GameDay. Jab, jab, body shot, jab, jab....then throw a well timed haymaker.
Short pass is the jab. Run is the body shot.
Chargers have been peppering opponents with the jab all year.

I know you want Lombo to tell Herbert to be like Rocky and just toss haymakers over and over while his face and ribs get destroyed but that not a good game plan to have a long successful career or to win the fight each GameDay.

:bertstare:

Really good post. In the NBA teams run set plays and rely on their freelance principles to just get through the grind of the regular season, then postseason basketball becomes all about finding and exploiting matchups with your best players. Lombardi isn't stupid, he knows he has a QB with arguably the best physical tools in the league that could easily run an air raid type offense. Like you said, we don't have the personnel to run that type of system. The style of offense Lombardi is running right now is our regular season NBA offense, his attempt to slog through a 17-game season with significant injuries to our receivers and offensive line. There are still valid criticisms of Lombardi, even in this style of offense I think he could/should be more aggressive with first down throws, but I've come to grips with the theory behind the offense.

[Critty]

Great post. Though I'd like to point out that MANY of our short passes are not just to save ribs and set up longer passes later. No, many of these are last-second checkdowns because the original option (maybe options) weren't open (or Herbert didn't see).

I'd just love to see receivers get more space either through talent or design. Cause Herbert can sure hit 'em!

I should add that I think we do run it too much on first down (or it sure feels that way). If we had more success, fine. But we usually run it up the gut for nada, setting up 2nd and long.

I don't need to see haymakers over and over. But, hell, let's see some like we saw his rookie year, when he had a FAR worse OL.

Chargers don't have that extra pop on the field offensively and that is a roster issue. They absolutely need to address that next off season. Bills, Bengals, Dolphins, Chiefs
These are the teams to beat. They all have faster starting WRs to defend. Chargers need to add a #1WR with speed and some depth with speed. I think they can and should go get DJ Moore from Carolina in the off season.

DJ.Moore-WR (Trade '23 2nd Rd Pick, Vato & Feiler)
M.Williams-WR
K.Allen-WR/Slot

Start these 3 WRs.

Half of K.Allen catches are when he motion into slot anyway. So he plays that spot great. Palmer is solid depth next year and then K.Allen replacement the following year in '24 when Chargers should be looking to trade/cut an aging Allen in final year of contract.
At least one of the two starting outside WRs need to be dynamic like Diggs or Chase. That's why Moore is a good trade to do. Your not going to find a more impactful and game ready player with a 2nd Rd pick rookie to help Herbert and offense get some pop into it.

[Xenos]

Agreed. Pass to set up the run. Forget the idea of being balance. Why waste downs running the ball. I get there are times you run the ball - short yardage or to burn clock. But I think a pass first offense is the way to go

Pass first also means more opportunities for Crosby to take down Herbert. So it won’t be that easy just passing.

[Riverwalk]

You should research your material first. Daniel Snyder's decision to fire Marty after one season is considered one of the stupidest owner decisions in the history of the league, and is one of the reasons Snyder is regarded as a complete joke.

Marty was 8-8 in his one year as the Washington's head coach. Daniel Snyder became enamored with with Steve Spurrier when Spurrier suddenly resigned from Florida and fired Marty in order to hire Spurrier. Spurrier was a complete and total disaster, going 12-20 in two seasons before getting fired.

Marty took over the Chargers and went 47-33 in five seasons. Snyder has since admitted that firing Marty was one of the biggest mistakes he's made as an owner.

Snyder is an even worse owner than Spanos so Im not going to defend him but I lived in DC when Marty was coach so I know the WHOLE story when he was coach. He lost the locker room at one point.

[dmac_bolt]

Except those passes (this year) tend to be about the same results as our "runs".

When you throw a pass from the 1 yard line, you’re not going to help the vaunted avg stat. I’m ok with the 1 yard gain personally.

btw they avg 6.5 yards per pass attempt, 3.8 per rush attempt. Either they do not tend to be the same or they are throwing the ball downfield a lot more than the “every pass is a short pass” crowd claims. take your pick.

I think last game Lombo had more short passes than usual because Herbert was getting ruthlessly harassed with great speed in the backfield. Most plays a longer developing pass would have became a sack. What Lombo need to do better is get better screens and misdirections going when teams are overloading the pass rush like AZ was with 5 and 6 rushers.

It would help if the blockers he did have out there leading the receiver actually blocked the one fucking defender that could stop the play as well. Different topic unrelated to play calling. Not sure how many times I saw one lone defender elude two or more useless blockers to stop the receiver around the LOS. It was many times and just pick up that one dude and instead of a -3 to +3 play, its a 7-10 yard gain.

Gain 7-10 yards every dump pass and I may never run the ball again.

[Riverwalk]

Pass first also means more opportunities for Crosby to take down Herbert. So it won’t be that easy just passing.

Per TruMedia, Herbert has been pressured in 2.5 seconds or less on 28% of his drop backs. That’s the leagues HIGHEST rate!!

Our OL continues to suck at pass and run blocking. Why can’t Telesco build even an average OL? (Ditto for DL)