2019 Other NFL and Super Bowl Discussion

[Guest]

Bosa was a great pick for us at #3.

Burrow won’t fall to us but is a legit #1. If the argument you’re making is that Montana was a 3rd round pick because of “perceived limitations” so Burrow would be overvalued at #1, Montana’s career beats it like a drum. In a do over draft he would be #1 by a mile. They all got it wrong.

Drafts are not conducted in hindsight.

Ignoring player weaknessess because a player might be able to avoid the impact of those weaknesses and work out for a team is a recipe for disaster even if a team gets away with it from time to time. It is a bad appraoch to drafting.

People on this forum have been talking about how there have been QBs with lesser arms that have done well in the NFL. I do not dispute that. I hope that they also would not dispute that there have been many QBs with lesser arms that did not work out and that between having a lesser arm and a stronger arm, having a stronger arm would be the preferred trait.

What people seem to want to ignore is that those lesser armed QBs that worked out were in many instances not drafted until later in the draft because they were perceived to carry increased risk and lowering players on the draft board is how a team properly deals with an increased risk of a player not panning out.

I have no issues with where those other QBs were drafted. There is no way that I would draft Burrow at #1 or #6 overall.

[Guest]

I understood, but Montana should have been a first round pick No? He would today.

So the concerns were invalid and Burrows arm is also just fine like that same concern for Montana's arm.
It's called them being wrong,...as they have been with many others.
Sorry, but just don't agree at all with your assessment.

The concerns about Montana were valid. Just because a possible bad result does not come to pass does not mean that a legitimate concern beforehand that that result might happen was not a valid concern at that time.

Montana should have been drafted where he was when he was just as the other lesser armed QBs should have been drafted where they were.

You do not ignore the weaknesses and hope the player works out. For every lesser armed Joe Montana, there are many lesser armed Joe Blows that did not work out.

Joe Burrow could have a great career, but I think it is foolish to ignore his weaknesses and just assume that he will because he did well in his final year of college. Burrow should be drafted, just not first overall and I will be delighted when the Bengals make the mistake of taking him in round 1.

Also, Burrow is already 23 (he's older than Lamar Jackson), which is a little bit old for a player coming out of school, so the team drafting him is going to get a year or two less out of him than they would for other players. I am not suggesting that he is like Chris Weinke, but that is another factor to consider in valuing a player. Trevor Lawrence will be about two years younger when he gets drafted next year. Herbert is a year and change younger than Burrow as well. Murray and Haskins are younger than Burrow too.

[Boltjolt]

The concerns about Montana were valid. Just because a possible bad result does not come to pass does not mean that a legitimate concern beforehand that that result might happen was not a valid concern at that time.

Montana should have been drafted where he was when he was just as the other lesser armed QBs should have been drafted where they were.

You do not ignore the weaknesses and hope the player works out. For every lesser armed Joe Montana, there are many lesser armed Joe Blows that did not work out.

Joe Burrow could have a great career, but I think it is foolish to ignore his weaknesses and just assume that he will because he did well in his final year of college. Burrow should be drafted, just not first overall and I will be delighted when the Bengals make the mistake of taking him in round 1.

Also, Burrow is already 23 (he's older than Lamar Jackson), which is a little bit old for a player coming out of school, so the team drafting him is going to get a year or two less out of him than they would for other players. I am not suggesting that he is like Chris Weinke, but that is another factor to consider in valuing a player. Trevor Lawrence will be about two years younger when he gets drafted next year. Herbert is a year and change younger than Burrow as well. Murray and Haskins are younger than Burrow too.

And Rivers was 24. Who cares about that! As long as they aren't 29 like the guy the Browns drafted. Herbert could be 18 coming out and I'd pass in the first round. Irrelevant!

Bret Farve was a 3rd round pick. Great arm.

Many strong armed QBs that were busts. So yes the league loves a strong arm but are still stupid evaluating a guys talent.

Kyle Boller was a shit QB but threw a ball at the combine from the 50 to the EZ. The Ravens were sold. They Stupid!

Ryan Leaf sucked,Jason Campbell sucked, Josh Freeman sucked, Flacco sux even though he won a SB with the #1 defense, Jeff George sucked, Andy Dalton sux......we can play this all day.

So YOU prefer a strong arm QB. Who cares? Burrow WILL #1 or even top 5 if Cinci passes regardless of what you think of his arm. Seems your problem is with us drafting him, not the rest of the league.

QB play is a lot more than a rifle for an arm. Rivers don't have a rifle but is great at knowing his WRs routes and throwing timing routes before the WR breaks or looks.

Lamar Jackson don't have that yet and why his out routes got knocked away against Tenn, not because of his arm strength.
Lamar still has a ways to go as a passer. He isn't a finished product.

[Guest]

And Rivers was 24. Who cares about that! As long as they aren't 29 like the guy the Browns drafted. Herbert could be 18 coming out and I'd pass in the first round. Irrelevant!

Bret Farve was a 3rd round pick. Great arm.

Many strong armed QBs that were busts. So yes the league loves a strong arm but are still stupid evaluating a guys talent.

Kyle Boller was a shit QB but threw a ball at the combine from the 50 to the EZ. The Ravens were sold. They Stupid!

Ryan Leaf sucked,Jason Campbell sucked, Josh Freeman sucked, Flacco sux even though he won a SB with the #1 defense, Jeff George sucked, Andy Dalton sux......we can play this all day.

So YOU prefer a strong arm QB. Who cares? Burrow WILL #1 or even top 5 if Cinci passes regardless of what you think of his arm. Seems your problem is with us drafting him, not the rest of the league.

QB play is a lot more than a rifle for an arm. Rivers don't have a rifle but is great at knowing his WRs routes and throwing timing routes before the WR breaks or looks.

Lamar Jackson don't have that yet and why his out routes got knocked away against Tenn, not because of his arm strength.
Lamar still has a ways to go as a passer. He isn't a finished product.

I prefer a QB that has does not have a clealy lesser arm all other things being equal.

Rivers was 22 when he was drafted.

Jackson does not have a great arm and his anticipation on passes is poor.

As I have stated, I will be happy when the Bengals idiot proof us against drafting Burrow by selecting him at #1 overall. Let him be their problem. We need to re-sign Rivers and fix the OL among other team needs.

[richpjr]

Drafts are not conducted in hindsight.

Ignoring player weaknessess because a player might be able to avoid the impact of those weaknesses and work out for a team is a recipe for disaster even if a team gets away with it from time to time. It is a bad appraoch to drafting.

People on this forum have been talking about how there have been QBs with lesser arms that have done well in the NFL. I do not dispute that. I hope that they also would not dispute that there have been many QBs with lesser arms that did not work out and that between having a lesser arm and a stronger arm, having a stronger arm would be the preferred trait.

What people seem to want to ignore is that those lesser armed QBs that worked out were in many instances not drafted until later in the draft because they were perceived to carry increased risk and lowering players on the draft board is how a team properly deals with an increased risk of a player not panning out.

I have no issues with where those other QBs were drafted. There is no way that I would draft Burrow at #1 or #6 overall.

Sigh. His arm is not a weakness. You make it sound like he can throw like an 8 year old girl. His arm is more than good enough to make every single throw an NFL QB has to make. Every one. Are there QBs with stronger arms? Yes. Is his arm above average? Yes. Will his arm strength hold him back? No.

[richpjr]

I prefer a QB that has does not have a clealy lesser arm all other things being equal.

There is no other QB in this draft class who has all things equal with him. Not even close.

[powderblueboy]

Sigh. His arm is not a weakness. You make it sound like he can throw like an 8 year old girl. His arm is more than good enough to make every single throw an NFL QB has to make. Every one. Are there QBs with stronger arms? Yes. Is his arm above average? Yes. Will his arm strength hold him back? No.

Maybe. If his feet are set and he steps into the pass, than yeah! You don't often get that opportunity in the pros.... you do at L.S.U. Personally, i think his arm strength and release speed are average by NFL standards. His strength will be reading defenses and making quick decisions. Being a 5th year senior has helped him in that capacity, no doubt: he's superior to all college qbs in that respect.

[powderblueboy]

There is no other QB in this draft class who has all things equal with him. Not even close.

As a college quarterback, i agree.

[21&500]

I get the feeling the Chargers will be losing a lot of fans when they move on from Rivers
and those fans will naturally gravitate towards the Burrow-led begnals
where they can continue making excuses for why a perfect prospect never wins anything because the organization is so horrible
no offense meant, just seeing a pattern develop

[jamrock]

The concerns about Montana were valid. Just because a possible bad result does not come to pass does not mean that a legitimate concern beforehand that that result might happen was not a valid concern at that time.

Montana should have been drafted where he was when he was just as the other lesser armed QBs should have been drafted where they were.

You do not ignore the weaknesses and hope the player works out. For every lesser armed Joe Montana, there are many lesser armed Joe Blows that did not work out.

Joe Burrow could have a great career, but I think it is foolish to ignore his weaknesses and just assume that he will because he did well in his final year of college. Burrow should be drafted, just not first overall and I will be delighted when the Bengals make the mistake of taking him in round 1.

Also, Burrow is already 23 (he's older than Lamar Jackson), which is a little bit old for a player coming out of school, so the team drafting him is going to get a year or two less out of him than they would for other players. I am not suggesting that he is like Chris Weinke, but that is another factor to consider in valuing a player. Trevor Lawrence will be about two years younger when he gets drafted next year. Herbert is a year and change younger than Burrow as well. Murray and Haskins are younger than Burrow too.

The concerns about Montana were proven invalid beyond a shadow of a doubt.

Burrow is 23 so they’ll get a year less out of him? Now your posts are just laughable.

[Guest]

Sigh. His arm is not a weakness. You make it sound like he can throw like an 8 year old girl. His arm is more than good enough to make every single throw an NFL QB has to make. Every one. Are there QBs with stronger arms? Yes. Is his arm above average? Yes. Will his arm strength hold him back? No.

His arm is a below average to low average arm for an NFL starting QB. I do not think I have stated anything different than that. I do not doubt that he can perform every throw. The question is just how well he performs every throw. Lofted deep out balls are going to invite INTs at the NFL level.

You and I will have to agree to disagree if you think Burrow has an above average arm. No way in hell is that true. Herbert has an above average arm for a starting NFL QB. None of the QB prospects have an elite arm. Josh Allen is an example of an elite arm.

Also, his release time seems average at best.

In the NFL, he is not likely to face defenses that rush only 3 guys for chunks of the game and yet still manage to leave 5 receivers wide open play after play like Oklahoma did. For the stats racked up, that had to be the most unimpressive performance that meant nothing that I have ever seen.

[Guest]

The concerns about Montana were proven invalid beyond a shadow of a doubt.

Burrow is 23 so they’ll get a year less out of him? Now your posts are just laughable.

I will try this one more time. Drafts are prospective, not retrospective in nature.

Those conducting drafts do not get the benefit of hindsight. The have to decide where to draft players based upon their observations of those players before the draft.

It is poor reasoning to say that just because one player with particular traits outperformed his draft position, all players with similar traits will outperform a similar draft position.

What is sound reasoning is to examine the traits and perform an evaluation of where a player with that particular set of traits should be drafted. When it came to drafting Montana, those involved in the draft analysis correctly identified legitimate concerns about him. A concern can be legitimate even if it does not ever manifest itself during the player's career. That is why they waited until the third round to draft him. That is precisely what they should have done based upon their knowledge before the draft.

And that is precisely the type of analysis that should be taking place with Burrow, but the Bengals may feel desperate and decide to overdraft him.

It amazes me that people want to compare Burrow with other lesser armed QBs that have done well, but they want to ignore where those lesser armed QBs were rightfully drafted. It is a complete logical disconnect. And they also want to ignore that for every Joe Montana, there are 10 Joe Blows with similar athletic traits that did not fare so well.

Lastly, if the average player enters the draft at 22 and Burrow is 23, then, yes, they will get a year less out of him than they would out of the average draftee all other things being equal. I am pretty sure I got that one right too. I have often wondered why that issue is not taken into greater consideration when it comes to early first round picks that the team hopes to have around for a long time. This was another factor that favored Dexter Lawrence over Jerry Tillery last year (though we never got the chance to draft Lawrence).

For some players, it is closer to a two year difference as it will be with Trevor Lawrence next year who is actually just short of three years younger than Burrow.