POLL: Should The Bolts Trade Up For Tua?

[Boltjolt]

After the Rose bowl against Penn State, Darnold was a God; Rosen & Allen weren't far behind. Mahomes was a nobody.

Yeah, just like Love is hyped up. Leaf was hyped up, Gabbart was hyped up , Leinart, etc, etc.
Happens every year.

I didn't like Gabbart, JaMarcus, Boller, ......wait, did you say Mahomes was a nobody?

You must not pay a lot of attention to the draft.,..though some were calling him a second rounder. If he was a second rounder, Love is a 7th.

Rosen was up there with Darnald but Allen? He was overhyped. Love is also overhyped....because they have strong arms.

[powderblueboy]

This class is better than last years class imo. Last years was very weak. This years top end QBs have more question marks that it didnt have before the season but then you have better prospects in the second and third rounds than last years.

Even the three you posted above werent sure fire prospects. Allen was inaccurate, Darnold wasnt all that imo and Rosen had his critics, but they were considered top QB prospects.
Burrow was better than all three last season. Some want to call it the system, but a smart OC where ever he lands will install what works for him. Someone like Gruden wont. He has his complicated system and you are going to run it, come hell or high water.

After the Rose bowl against Penn State, Darnold was a God; Rosen & Allen weren't far behind. Mahomes was a nobody.

[like54ninjas]

Again, you are confusing two separate issues--1) my view of Lawrence and 2) my view of Burrow, Tua, Herbert and Simmons.

Right now, in order not to confuse the issue, I will limit my statement to just the second issue, which is actually pretty simple.

The #6 overall pick is an early pick that should produce a virtually guaranteed blue chip star player (like Rivers, Tomlinson, or Bosa).

I do not consider any of this year's QBs to be such a player.

Burrow lacks a track record of multiple years of success and could only succeed in just the right system with a team far superior to its opponents, somethiing not likely to be repeated at the NFL level. He also could not beat out Haskins (who has struggled so far in the NFL) at Ohio State and lacks arm strength. Going into this season, draft pundits had Burrow rated as a 4th or 5th round QB. This simply is not the profile of a top 6 NFL draft pick. It just isn't regardless of how much hype he is getting.

Tua is small and injury prone and our OL has been below average to terrible for a dozen seasons in a row. Nothing terrible could ever happen with that combination. Seriously, Tua, even though he does have some arm talent, is a hard pass at #6, much less with respect to a potential trade up scenario.

I actualy like Herbert, who you are suggesting we will be taking at #6 overall. I even like him as a first round player, but there are probably a good 15-20 players that I would take before taking him. I think Herbert has the potential to be a great NFL QB, but he also carries way more risk than a player like Simmons, who is very likely to succeed at the NFL level.

I could not disagree more with your assertion that drafting Burrow is no different than drafting Simmons. Simmons is a virtual lock to succeed at the NFL level. Burrow is not.

I concur.

Reminds me of the people who said wait for next years incredible qb crop: Rosen/Arnold/Allen.

Next years qb crop is always more appealing.

Actually, that is not where I am at all. It is really very simple. For the past two seasons, I have been of the view that Lawrence is a once in a generation type prospect. Last year, this year, next year--it makes no difference. Once in a generation type prospects are viewed as head and shoulders above other QB prospects across many seasons. That is what Lawrence is.

The thing that I think some are missing in the discussion is that my view of Lawrence has nothing to do with my view of the QBs in this year's draft. I would be the first to admit that most pundits have Burrow and Tua as top 6 prospects. I disagree with them. In fact, I do not even have either QB as the top QB in this year's draft class. I like Herbert's potential over theirs and like Herbert as a prospect--just not at #6 overall. I think Herbert is a second half of the first round player.

I prefer to get value for draft picks, so I do not favor reaching for players at any position, even QB. Taking a QB at #6 this year would be a reach, so I do not favor that or trading up, which makes the reach even more costly.

[Boltjolt]

Again, you are confusing two separate issues--1) my view of Lawrence and 2) my view of Burrow, Tua, Herbert and Simmons.

Right now, in order not to confuse the issue, I will limit my statement to just the second issue, which is actually pretty simple.

The #6 overall pick is an early pick that should produce a virtually guaranteed blue chip star player (like Rivers, Tomlinson, or Bosa).

I do not consider any of this year's QBs to be such a player.

Burrow lacks a track record of multiple years of success and could only succeed in just the right system with a team far superior to its opponents, somethiing not likely to be repeated at the NFL level. He also could not beat out Haskins (who has struggled so far in the NFL) at Ohio State and lacks arm strength. Going into this season, draft pundits had Burrow rated as a 4th or 5th round QB. This simply is not the profile of a top 6 NFL draft pick. It just isn't regardless of how much hype he is getting.

Tua is small and injury prone and our OL has been below average to terrible for a dozen seasons in a row. Nothing terrible could ever happen with that combination. Seriously, Tua, even though he does have some arm talent, is a hard pass at #6, much less with respect to a potential trade up scenario.

I actualy like Herbert, who you are suggesting we will be taking at #6 overall. I even like him as a first round player, but there are probably a good 15-20 players that I would take before taking him. I think Herbert has the potential to be a great NFL QB, but he also carries way more risk than a player like Simmons, who is very likely to succeed at the NFL level.

I could not disagree more with your assertion that drafting Burrow is no different than drafting Simmons. Simmons is a virtual lock to succeed at the NFL level. Burrow is not.

We that's the thing. Nobody is a guarantee. You think you have a pretty good idea and draft them. If they work out like you thought, then great. If they don't you have to wonder what went wrong. Choosing either of Burrow or Simmons comes with no guarantee....Lawrence will come with no guarantee. We have seen "can't miss" prospects,.... Miss.

Simmons is not a lock and even sounds crazy to say that. Even if he succeeds, he my not be what most thought. He very well could be an All Pro which is exactly what many think he will be but we seen too many that were "locks" just never reach their potential and even flat out bust. Ever heard of Tony Mandarich?

Before Rivers senior season, and even during it, he was rated a 4th rounder. He crept up and very late he was rated a first, so that means nothing.
Aaron Rodgers had one good season.
You keep repeating the same things over and over.

The Haskins thing means nothing. Brady shared time with Drew Henson...who was a bust.

Mark Brunell shared time with Joe Hobert...who was a bust.

There are plenty that think Burrow will be a very good NFL QB. I think the kid has the head to be but we shall see and I'd take the gamble on him.


That was my point.

It's not my idea to take Herbert at #6. It's what I think Telesco will do and why I have him there in my mock.
The rest is an idea of what I'd like to see happen.

[dmac_bolt]

Again, you are confusing two separate issues--1) my view of Lawrence and 2) my view of Burrow, Tua, Herbert and Simmons.

Right now, in order not to confuse the issue, I will limit my statement to just the second issue, which is actually pretty simple.

The #6 overall pick is an early pick that should produce a virtually guaranteed blue chip star player (like Rivers, Tomlinson, or Bosa).

I do not consider any of this year's QBs to be such a player.

Burrow lacks a track record of multiple years of success and could only succeed in just the right system with a team far superior to its opponents, somethiing not likely to be repeated at the NFL level. He also could not beat out Haskins (who has struggled so far in the NFL) at Ohio State and lacks arm strength. Going into this season, draft pundits had Burrow rated as a 4th or 5th round QB. This simply is not the profile of a top 6 NFL draft pick. It just isn't regardless of how much hype he is getting.

Tua is small and injury prone and our OL has been below average to terrible for a dozen seasons in a row. Nothing terrible could ever happen with that combination. Seriously, Tua, even though he does have some arm talent, is a hard pass at #6, much less with respect to a potential trade up scenario.

I actualy like Herbert, who you are suggesting we will be taking at #6 overall. I even like him as a first round player, but there are probably a good 15-20 players that I would take before taking him. I think Herbert has the potential to be a great NFL QB, but he also carries way more risk than a player like Simmons, who is very likely to succeed at the NFL level.

I could not disagree more with your assertion that drafting Burrow is no different than drafting Simmons. Simmons is a virtual lock to succeed at the NFL level. Burrow is not.

If you land a great QB, he’s worth 2 to 3 great LBs. Thats why QBs are over-drafted, its why they are paid 2x the next highest paid players, its why they are the face of the franchise and usually MVP of the SB. If Burrow and Simmons are both on the board when I pick ... I take Burrow without blinking. I don’t agree he’s not any good. His last year is good enough for me to take that chance. I’d also take Herbert over Simmons,

This response is getting old. Same repeated jibberish.
Drafting Burrow at 6 is no different than drafting Simmons at 6. Both are potentual.

Your point is you only love Lawrence and we should tank or give up our whole draft for him, we know that. Thanks.

Again, you are confusing two separate issues--1) my view of Lawrence and 2) my view of Burrow, Tua, Herbert and Simmons.

Right now, in order not to confuse the issue, I will limit my statement to just the second issue, which is actually pretty simple.

The #6 overall pick is an early pick that should produce a virtually guaranteed blue chip star player (like Rivers, Tomlinson, or Bosa).

I do not consider any of this year's QBs to be such a player.

Burrow lacks a track record of multiple years of success and could only succeed in just the right system with a team far superior to its opponents, somethiing not likely to be repeated at the NFL level. He also could not beat out Haskins (who has struggled so far in the NFL) at Ohio State and lacks arm strength. Going into this season, draft pundits had Burrow rated as a 4th or 5th round QB. This simply is not the profile of a top 6 NFL draft pick. It just isn't regardless of how much hype he is getting.

Tua is small and injury prone and our OL has been below average to terrible for a dozen seasons in a row. Nothing terrible could ever happen with that combination. Seriously, Tua, even though he does have some arm talent, is a hard pass at #6, much less with respect to a potential trade up scenario.

I actualy like Herbert, who you are suggesting we will be taking at #6 overall. I even like him as a first round player, but there are probably a good 15-20 players that I would take before taking him. I think Herbert has the potential to be a great NFL QB, but he also carries way more risk than a player like Simmons, who is very likely to succeed at the NFL level.

I could not disagree more with your assertion that drafting Burrow is no different than drafting Simmons. Simmons is a virtual lock to succeed at the NFL level. Burrow is not.

[Boltjolt]

Reminds me of the people who said wait for next years incredible qb crop: Rosen/Arnold/Allen.

Next years qb crop is always more appealing.

This class is better than last years class imo. Last years was very weak. This years top end QBs have more question marks that it didnt have before the season but then you have better prospects in the second and third rounds than last years.

Even the three you posted above werent sure fire prospects. Allen was inaccurate, Darnold wasnt all that imo and Rosen had his critics, but they were considered top QB prospects.
Burrow was better than all three last season. Some want to call it the system, but a smart OC where ever he lands will install what works for him. Someone like Gruden wont. He has his complicated system and you are going to run it, come hell or high water.

[Maniaque 6]

Burrow at 6 is impossible
Simmons at 6 ? I have hope.

[powderblueboy]

This response is getting old. Same repeated jibberish.
Drafting Burrow at 6 is no different than drafting Simmons at 6. Both are potentual.

Your point is you only love Lawrence and we should tank or give up our whole draft for him, we know that. Thanks.

Reminds me of the people who said wait for next years incredible qb crop: Rosen/Arnold/Allen.

Next years qb crop is always more appealing.

[powderblueboy]

This. This is something we both agree on. We’ve seen time and time again that hype + draft position does not translate to success in the NFL. You can say someone has good vision, arm strength, IQ, athleticism, decision making, but it still and always will be a crapshoot. If it wasn’t, then people like Russel Wilson and Tom Brady would have went in the 1st round and people like Trubisky and Josh Rosen would have went in the later rounds.

I went back and watched Brady's final game at Michigan on youtube. He was fantastic: accurate, good arm, got rid of the ball quickly, knew where to go with the football. Basically what you saw his 2nd year with the Pats. Even with the Patriots, it required Bledsoe's injury to get him on the field. Sometimes evaluators get into their head what the ideal quarterback should be & ignore what their eyes tell them. They tend to over analyze little things: why was Brady splitting time until his senior year, etc.? Akili Smith & Donavon McNabb went high in the first, the year before Brady was drafted; even back then, speed mattered, and Brady was slower than molasses.

The flavor of today is highly mobile qbs: guys who can place stress on defenses with their ability to scramble. The qb who places stress on defenses with their ability to get rid of the ball quickly, or make any throw is undervalued today. Defenses will be focused on stopping the former and the latter style qb will make hay.

[Boltjolt]

When you mention names like Gabbart and Boller (and there are so many more), you are proving my point. Just because other teams made foolish use of their early first round draft picks does not mean that we need to join them.

In some years, there just are not any elite franchise QBs available. It does not matter if we have the #6 overall pick if there is no QB there worth taking.

It is important to grade and not overgrade the player and let the board come to us. Wasting an early first round pick on a non-franchise QB does not help anything. Taylor is an efficient QB that serves nicely as a place holder until the right QB comes along, whether that is Lawrence or some other QB.

This year's QBs are overhyped beyond belief. I am absolutely not buying Burrow given that he could not beat out Haskins at Ohio State; he needed a loaded team in just the right system at LSU to put up one season only of elite stats, and he has some noteworthy physical limitations. He may end up being a good NFL player, but the risk factors do not profile well as a top 6 pick. Honestly, in my view, he has game manager type QB written all over him and we have an okay game manager at QB right now in Taylor.

Tua, with his size and injury history, is a straight pass--not even a first round player for me. I would be tempted not to pull the trigger on him at #37, but he does have some arm talent, so I admit that I would have mixed feelings about that.

Herbert has all of the physical ability/durability traits, but he is a bit raw/rough around the edges. Sometimes those players develop. Sometimes they do not even with all of their physical ability. I kind of like him, but not at #6 overall when at least one of Young, Simmons, Okudah, Brown and Becton (assuming Burrow gets taken in the first 6 picks) should be on the board. Those players seem comparatively safer and seem like they have a higher ceiling, but I admit that there are no guarantees.

And I think there is a good chance that Telesco decides to take Herbert at #6 if he is on the board. I do not agree with that approach, but he gets to make that call and not me. And while I would be disappointed with such a pick (as I was with Williams at #7) and would be sure to post about that, I would also be rooting big time for the player and the team.

This response is getting old. Same repeated jibberish.
Drafting Burrow at 6 is no different than drafting Simmons at 6. Both are potentual.

Your point is you only love Lawrence and we should tank or give up our whole draft for him, we know that. Thanks.