POLL: Should The Bolts Trade Up For Tua?

[dmac_bolt]

Herbert is going to be a lot better than this board thinks. I’d take him at 6.

[Steve]

Steve Interesting... I'm not for trading up to get him.. but I'd be happy if he's still there at 6, I think he's going to be more sought after than you think...

Everyone is going to set their own value on Hebert and where they would pick him.

To me, a guy with as many mechanical flaws, timing issues and generally poor accuracy (not completion percentage but actual accuracy) is not a top 10 pick, IMHO. He is not that productive, and he is going to take a big step up in terms of what he is being asked to do mentally, what defenses are doing (mentally) and to think he is just going to be able to step up and be the guy is a little optimistic. He has the tools to develop into a top 5 type of player, but he isn't there yet.

I agree, that it is likely that some other QB needy team is likely to jump up and go after him. There are a lot of things to like about him. He has the potential to be that guy.

The other thing to remember is that there were only 2 QB at this point last year that anyone was talking about. Tua and some people mentioned to keep an eye on Hebert. The rest of have basically come from nowhere. There will be other QB next season, so I don't see the need to overpay and reach for Hebert (or any other QB) too early just because people say we need a QB. There will be QB in FA and the draft next season (assuming there is a this season).

[ChargingBolts]

TT hasn't even interviewed Tua (or Simmons or Odukah or top OT's)

https://walterfootball.com/ProspectMeetings/ByTeam

[like54ninjas]

TT hasn't even interviewed Tua (or Simmons or Odukah or top OT's)

walterfootball.com/ProspectMeetings/ByTeam

Teams rarely meet with all the prospects they select.
Their scouting department has.

[ChargingBolts]

Teams rarely meet with all the prospects they select.
Their scouting department has.

Wouldn't the scouting department be part of the team?

[Boltjolt]

Everyone is going to set their own value on Hebert and where they would pick him.

To me, a guy with as many mechanical flaws, timing issues and generally poor accuracy (not completion percentage but actual accuracy) is not a top 10 pick, IMHO. He is not that productive, and he is going to take a big step up in terms of what he is being asked to do mentally, what defenses are doing (mentally) and to think he is just going to be able to step up and be the guy is a little optimistic. He has the tools to develop into a top 5 type of player, but he isn't there yet.

I agree, that it is likely that some other QB needy team is likely to jump up and go after him. There are a lot of things to like about him. He has the potential to be that guy.

The other thing to remember is that there were only 2 QB at this point last year that anyone was talking about. Tua and some people mentioned to keep an eye on Hebert. The rest of have basically come from nowhere. There will be other QB next season, so I don't see the need to overpay and reach for Hebert (or any other QB) too early just because people say we need a QB. There will be QB in FA and the draft next season (assuming there is a this season).

Ha, I mentioned Herbert's accuracy and flaws in footwork and some just wanted to point to his completion %. Gotta see him play.
He isn't as accurate as his completion % claims. But he does have good upside. Just gotta get that out of him and he needs work.

I prefer him at 37 but no way a GM lets him last that long. Will be gone by 9 to 15 if we trade down.

[Steve]

Teams meet with players as PART of the selection process.

They don't decide on who they might pick, and then meet with them. It is possible that what a player says could sell a team either way. Some of those guys are probably off our draft board, or will be at some point.

[like54ninjas]

Wouldn't the scouting department be part of the team?

These pundits don’t/can’t track all the in-season stuff.....practices, post game, etc.

[Steve]

Ha, I mentioned Herbert's accuracy and flaws in footwork and some just wanted to point to his completion %. Gotta see him play.
He isn't as accurate as his completion % claims. But he does have good upside. Just gotta get that out of him and he needs work.

I prefer him at 37 but no way a GM lets him last that long. Will be gone by 9 to 15 if we trade down.

I have noticed a lot analytics people use completion percentage as a proxy for accuracy, but when you watch film, you can often see receivers being forced to adjust to poorly thrown passes and then leaving a lot of yards on the field for any given play.

If we are going to trade up for Hebert, I would almost rather trade back up into the 1st (from 37), instead of trading down from 6. We can use the extra picks, but trading up gets us a top talent level guy as well. Obviously, it depends on the nuts and bolts of any deal.

[richpjr]

I have noticed a lot analytics people use completion percentage as a proxy for accuracy, but when you watch film, you can often see receivers being forced to adjust to poorly thrown passes and then leaving a lot of yards on the field for any given play.

If we are going to trade up for Hebert, I would almost rather trade back up into the 1st (from 37), instead of trading down from 6. We can use the extra picks, but trading up gets us a top talent level guy as well. Obviously, it depends on the nuts and bolts of any deal.

I think there is no chance Herbert makes it out of the top 10 so if we really want him, I don't think we could trade back. I'm not even convinced he'll still be there at 6.

[richpjr]

The guys on PFF were discussing what it would take to move from 6 to 3 to draft Tua and their idea was the #6, #37 this year, a 3rd round next year and Desmond King.

Now way I'd do that.

[Steve]

Again, I wouldn't draft Tua in the 1st round at all. Simply too much injury risk. At some point, later on, his risk vs reward thing will peak out, but unlike some other positions, we cannot carry 2 starting caliber QB on the roster, so Tua would have to prove at some point he can stay healthy, which he cannot behind a much more dominant line, and weaker pass rushers.

If someone wants to draft Hebert in the top 10, let them. I wouldn't, but that may just be me.

There are 3 things that factor into a players value, their injury risk, potential as a player and their production.

Hebert is a top 5 pick in terms of potential and injury risk (basically none that I am aware of). He has all the tools and if you can develop his technique, he could be one of the all time greats.

He is not a 1st round pick in terms of his production. He has some mechanical things that need cleaning up that really hurt his accuracy. His background in the offense has hurt his development, IMHO. He has many of the same issues that Marriotta had, in terms of timing and reads.