Justin Herbert - Bolts Franchise QB Official Discussion

[sonorajim]

Herbert is a squeaky clean character, high IQ, hard working, big, athletic QB with a rocket launcher arm who runs well.
I'll give him a chance.

[Silversurfer]

Herbert is a squeaky clean character, high IQ, hard working, big, athletic QB with a rocket launcher arm who runs well.
I'll give him a chance.

He did score higher than a 13 on the wonderlic. #Justsaying

[powderblueboy]

For those who are Oregon fans or those who have looked at Herbert a lot, can you please comment on his accuracy down field, and anticipation? I don't pay as much attention to the Pac-12, so I haven't seen any of his games. His measurables and intelligence are great positives, but the only thing I know may be an issue is the most important factor to me is accuracy. If his receivers ran loose routes, that might be a mitigation.

I haven't seen him a lot: but here's my two cents.

A few games he is very accurate down field (i posted one of them): just precision bullet passes to covered receivers;
others not so much and more than a few balls sail on him.
To me, he throws a very heavy ball on bombs, not giving it a lot of trajectory.

He'll look to run the football when pressured (and he'll miss people for that reason), but so does Burrow.

His foot work is fine: i don't think the tendency towards missing has to do with that;
It's his throwing motion: he claims its a matter of dropping his shoulders and needing to correct that.

At Oregon, he's the type to actually go to class and study. In the NFL he'll have full time to devote to
correcting certain matters. Part of the problem with his lack of anticipation is the number of OCs he's had, and
the lack of time to prepare for new systems due to actually attending classes, unlike certain SEC quarterbacks.

This is what i'm hoping.

[Scoregon]

Just watch the tape here buddy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jA5g4v9hjMQ

It's all in there. He misses throws because he doesn't see guys. He overthrows guys wide open by 10 yards because he gets too amped up.

Rivers makes mistakes for entirely different reasons. He literally doesn't care if he makes a mistake. Guys like Trubisky and Alex Smith make mistakes because they're trying so hard not to make mistakes.

You can cut up a tape like that for every prospect. It's all a matter of what you choose to highlight. I mean the idea that he infers from one 3rd and 16 choice to run, rather than wait for a 20 yard crosser to break from his own end of the field against an outstanding defensive line with a lead, somehow justifies his coaches' conservative playcalling throughout the rest of the game, seems specious to me. I watched and listened to Arroyo and Cristobal for three full seasons and that is what they did with leads. They try to sit on them and shorten the game.

So then he carries on his inferential awesomeness, saying that he gets why they didn't have confidence in him by showing Herbert's five worst throws of the season. Even a couple of the ten or so he shows aren't nearly as bad as he makes them out to be, like the one to the back in the flat or the low completion to the outside or the throw to the tight end that he says he should have waited on (slow, backup tight end, who was a poor reciever) was probably the correct timing with Jacob Breeland, their injured starting tight end.

Finally, what really made me sure the guy was cherry picking plays to prove his point was the comment that "many of his highlight throws were jump balls" and he shows the ONLY true jump ball touchdown (and maybe completion) that Herbert had all year. I mean it never happened. There may have been a fade or two, but actual jump ball completions were almost completely non-existent for the Ducks. I'd love to see all these awesome jump ball catches that never happened.

Anyway, I obviously think that analysis was shaped to back up a particular point of view that I disagree with. Doesn't mean it's not possible he's right, but plenty of other knowledgeable football people came to more positive conclusions on Herbert, so pointing to that video like it proves your anti-Herbert stance is the correct one, doesn't really prove anything. Particularly since, as I note above, some of his comments are simply not accurate at all.

[powderblueboy]

No not so much hero ball. You're more likely to see him tuck & run under pressure. He is totally opposite Rivers with regards to psychological makeup. Herbert just won't see the field. Like Alex Smith or Josh Allen or Trubisky. Those are all athletic 1 read QBs. They have all the physical tools but under pressure they just don't see the field, they feel phantom pressure, and adrenaline really affects their accuracy. Adrenaline does not really affect QBs like Rivers, Manning, Mahomes, Brady, etc. They're like psychopaths in that sense. You will see guys like Trubisky and Allen scramble out of the pocket and overthrow a wide open guy by 15 yards on a pass they would complete 100 out of 100 in practice. That sorta thing.

Basically I'd just assume you have Josh Allen at QB. Big arm, physical scrambler, inconsistent vision, inconsistent accuracy.

Alex Smith doesn't have a gun, so he'll shy from making certain passes; Josh Allen is young, but never showed me spasms of pinpoint accuracy; and Trubinsky just flat out stinks
It was a huge mystery to me why he was taken above Mahomes on that draft day.

[chargeroo]

For those who are Oregon fans or those who have looked at Herbert a lot, can you please comment on his accuracy down field, and anticipation? I don't pay as much attention to the Pac-12, so I haven't seen any of his games. His measurables and intelligence are great positives, but the only thing I know may be an issue is the most important factor to me is accuracy. If his receivers ran loose routes, that might be a mitigation.

Duck fan here and I've seen most of his games.. I saw all of them in his Senior season. I think he's good on the long throws, both the timing and accuracy. His intermediate passes need work. I think that's a timing problem. He'll need to work on his release, as in anticipating. He'll have way better receivers now than he had in Eugene. He kind of reminds me of Stan Humphries in that he's more accurate on the longer throw than the shorter throws. My guess is that he'll be better than most of our fellow posters think. I just hope they give him the year to learn and don't throw him out on the field before he's ready.

[Heatmiser]

1. Herbert had multiple coaches during his time at Oregon.
2. Herbert did not have the kind of talent around him that Burrow and Tua did. A lot of Tua's throws, in particular are spectacular adjustments/catches by his elite WR. Also Tua had an elite OL. If Herberts WRs did not lead the NCAA in drops in 2018, they were darn close.
3. Herbert is quiet and humble. If you want Baker Mayfield, you are not getting him. If you want Philip Rivers, you are not getting him. But he is not Joe Flacco or Eli, either who always acted like they didnt care or even understand.
4. Herbert is smart, comes from a good family, does not do dumb stuff off the field, is not a prima dona. So he wont provide that kind of excitement.
5. Herbert may be the most physically gifted QB the Chargers have ever had. but he needs to work on mechanics and lining up under center.

TG

[powderblueboy]

Just watch the tape here buddy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jA5g4v9hjMQ

It's all in there. He misses throws because he doesn't see guys. He overthrows guys wide open by 10 yards because he gets too amped up.

Rivers makes mistakes for entirely different reasons. He literally doesn't care if he makes a mistake. Guys like Trubisky and Alex Smith make mistakes because they're trying so hard not to make mistakes.

Tom Brady makes mistakes. You make it seem like Herbert didn't complete a pass last season, other than the dump off variety.
Chargers looked at his good tape and figure they can make certain corrections.

He takes to coaching well and can always scramble his way out of some difficulties his first few years - just like Steve McNair.
Telesco says he holds toughness and leadership as essential values for qb play. I imagine he was satisfied with Herbert in that category.

Every young qb can flop put in a bad situation.

[rikardo]

Alex Smith doesn't have a gun, so he'll shy from making certain passes; Josh Allen is young, but never showed me spasms of pinpoint accuracy; and Trubinsky just flat out stinks
It was a huge mystery to me why he was taken above Mahomes on that draft day.

Agree
Mitchell Trubisky only started 13 of 34 games in college.

[Kingcrimson]

I was so disappointed when this pick came in. But I’m coming around to the reality that he’s now our QB. I think he’ll be fine.

[Parcells]

As someone who was extremely disappointed by the pick, I will first say that I'm a lifelong Chargers fan and will stay loyal. I don't want to see them fail, which is why I'm disappointed with the pick. His floor is a full-on bust, not a quality starter as some have suggested. I agree that his ceiling is in the Josh Allen range. I don't want Josh Allen as my QB. If we end up with Josh Allen 2.0, I will be disappointed, because I don't think Josh Allen is gonna have real success in the NFL. Said another way, I don't see the Bills as being a legit contender as long as Josh Allen is under center. I'm hoping and praying I'm wrong about this selection and that he is an all-time great. I'll happily eat crow anyway it can be served.

[Parcells]

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2017/4/28/15467916/2017-nfl-draft-grades-for-chiefs-and-patrick-mahomes-are-all-over-the-place

My attempt to put on a happy face about Herbert.