Poppers breakdown of Herbert on money downs
When the NFL media at large was projecting how Justin Herbert would fare in his sophomore season, a big point of emphasis was third-down efficiency. Generally, quarterback performance on third down is not a very consistent statistic from season to season. The numbers are volatile and fluctuate pretty significantly.
Herbert led the league in third-down dropbacks in 2020 as a rookie. Despite that high volume — largely the result of one of the lowest first-down success rates in the NFL — Herbert ranked seventh among starting quarterbacks in expected points added per dropback, according to TruMedia.
In the offseason, the word “regression” was thrown around because many believed — or at least posed the possibility — that this level of third-down production was not sustainable.
Through five games, Herbert is answering those doubts. He has actually been better on third down this season than he was as a rookie. He is averaging 0.36 EPA/dropback in 2021 compared to 0.18 in 2020. And his relative volume has not changed. Herbert is tied for third in the league with 60 third-down dropbacks, putting him on the same pace he was on last season with he had 180 third-down dropbacks in 15 starts. (Ideally, this rate would drop as the season progresses, but the Chargers, right now, are a middling early-down offense.)
Five games is a relatively small sample. So I am not going to proclaim that Herbert has proven his third-down efficiency to be sustainable. But on tape, Herbert has shown a special ability to create within and outside the structure of the offense on third downs. And this also extends to fourth downs. Herbert is averaging 0.60 EPA/dropback on third and fourth downs this season. Only the Rams’ Matthew Stafford has been better.
Herbert is an elite player on what the league refers to as “money downs” — third and fourth — and that is a primary reason why he has cemented himself as an early MVP candidate. It is also a primary reason why the Chargers put up 47 points on the Browns on Sunday, including 26 in the fourth quarter, as the offense spearheaded a shootout win at SoFi Stadium.
Herbert had a monster game. He set a career high in passing yards with 398. He threw four touchdowns and did not turn the ball over. He also scrambled for a crucial touchdown in the third quarter. The splash plays, particularly the two long touchdowns to Mike Williams (the first of which came on third down), got most of the attention. To me, though, a series of third- and fourth-down conversions in the second half were equally important to the Chargers’ 14-point comeback, and they help underscore just how great Herbert has been on money downs.
Let’s start midway through the third quarter. The Chargers trailed the Browns 27-13. This was the drive that flipped the game. Earlier, the Chargers had gone for it on fourth-and-2 from their own 24-yard line. Austin Ekeler converted on a shotgun handoff. Right guard Michael Schofield, playing in place of the injured Oday Aboushi, had spurred the run with an excellent pull block. The Chargers had driven into Browns territory and faced a fourth-and-7 from the Cleveland 22-yard line. A gotta-have-it play.
The Chargers lined up in shotgun in a condensed formation. Keenan Allen was in the left slot. The play design had him running an out route.
Herbert took the snap, and as he hit the bottom of his drop, Allen set Browns cornerback Troy Hill up with a stutter-step break.
As Allen got free to the outside, Browns defensive tackle Malik Jackson got past Schofield and created pressure on Herbert.
Herbert stood in the pocket and delivered a pinpoint throw to the sideline, avoiding the trailing Hill.
Herbert scored on his scramble two plays later. This was a good example of Herbert operating in structure. And it is also a good example of just how much the weapons around Herbert are allowing him to flourish. Allen is so reliable in these situations because of his precise and shifty route running. He leads the league this season in first-down conversion receptions on third and fourth down with 12.
Two drives later, with the Chargers trailing 27-21, Herbert kept the possession alive with an out-of-structure third-down conversion.
The Chargers faced a third-and-5 from their own 44-yard line, and they, again, set up in shotgun. They had three receivers, or trips, to the right of formation with Joshua Palmer, Allen and Jalen Guyton. Tight end Jared Cook was isolated to the left of the formation.
Herbert took the snap, but before he could even hit the bottom of his drop, Myles Garrett won off the left edge against tackle Rashawn Slater.
Herbert sensed and saw the pressure and escaped through the open gap to his left.
As he extended the play, Herbert kept his eyes downfield. No receivers were open, but Guyton did a nice job of moving with his quarterback in an attempt to create a passing lane.
Herbert got to the numbers and pivoted into a throwing position.
The end zone view really displays the difficulty of this throw. Guyton is not really open. And Jackson is jumping right in Herbert’s eye line.
Herbert hesitated for just a millisecond to give himself a window over Jackson’s outstretched hands.
And he threw Guyton open with his ball placement.
Herbert hit Williams for a go-ahead 42-yard touchdown on the very next play.
The final throw I want to highlight came late in the fourth quarter. This, too, was an out-of-structure play.
The Browns had just driven 75 yards on five plays. They only attempted one pass on the drive, and it was a screen. The Chargers run defense was a mess. And it was clear at this point of the game that Herbert was going to have to win it.
The Chargers faced a third-and-5 from their own 30-yard line with less than four minutes remaining in regulation. They trailed 42-35.
Herbert, again, set up in shotgun. Guyton and Cook were aligned to the left, and Allen and Williams were aligned to the right. Allen was in the slot.
Herbert had a clean pocket initially when he hit the bottom of his drop.
But then the pocket started to collapse when Takkarist McKinley bull-rushed through right tackle Storm Norton.
Herbert escaped, stiff-arming McKinley to make it to the edge.
As Herbert broke free, his receivers were all covered.
Allen, in the scramble drill, extended his route downfield and toward the sideline. Hill was still in great position.
Herbert threw on the run.
His arm talent overcame Hill’s positioning.
The Chargers scored another go-ahead touchdown three plays later on a well-blocked red zone screen to Ekeler.
“You see him make the plays like that, it’s just this huge confidence builder for us,” center Corey Linsley said of Herbert’s off-script prowess. “It’s part of who he is.”
Is Herbert’s money-down performance sustainable? Perhaps not. We will have to answer that question later this season, when the sample is larger.
But the alternative is this: Justin Herbert is just that good when it matters the most.
When the NFL media at large was projecting how Justin Herbert would fare in his sophomore season, a big point of emphasis was third-down efficiency. Generally, quarterback performance on third down is not a very consistent statistic from season to season. The numbers are volatile and fluctuate pretty significantly.
Herbert led the league in third-down dropbacks in 2020 as a rookie. Despite that high volume — largely the result of one of the lowest first-down success rates in the NFL — Herbert ranked seventh among starting quarterbacks in expected points added per dropback, according to TruMedia.
In the offseason, the word “regression” was thrown around because many believed — or at least posed the possibility — that this level of third-down production was not sustainable.
Through five games, Herbert is answering those doubts. He has actually been better on third down this season than he was as a rookie. He is averaging 0.36 EPA/dropback in 2021 compared to 0.18 in 2020. And his relative volume has not changed. Herbert is tied for third in the league with 60 third-down dropbacks, putting him on the same pace he was on last season with he had 180 third-down dropbacks in 15 starts. (Ideally, this rate would drop as the season progresses, but the Chargers, right now, are a middling early-down offense.)
Five games is a relatively small sample. So I am not going to proclaim that Herbert has proven his third-down efficiency to be sustainable. But on tape, Herbert has shown a special ability to create within and outside the structure of the offense on third downs. And this also extends to fourth downs. Herbert is averaging 0.60 EPA/dropback on third and fourth downs this season. Only the Rams’ Matthew Stafford has been better.
Herbert is an elite player on what the league refers to as “money downs” — third and fourth — and that is a primary reason why he has cemented himself as an early MVP candidate. It is also a primary reason why the Chargers put up 47 points on the Browns on Sunday, including 26 in the fourth quarter, as the offense spearheaded a shootout win at SoFi Stadium.
Herbert had a monster game. He set a career high in passing yards with 398. He threw four touchdowns and did not turn the ball over. He also scrambled for a crucial touchdown in the third quarter. The splash plays, particularly the two long touchdowns to Mike Williams (the first of which came on third down), got most of the attention. To me, though, a series of third- and fourth-down conversions in the second half were equally important to the Chargers’ 14-point comeback, and they help underscore just how great Herbert has been on money downs.
Let’s start midway through the third quarter. The Chargers trailed the Browns 27-13. This was the drive that flipped the game. Earlier, the Chargers had gone for it on fourth-and-2 from their own 24-yard line. Austin Ekeler converted on a shotgun handoff. Right guard Michael Schofield, playing in place of the injured Oday Aboushi, had spurred the run with an excellent pull block. The Chargers had driven into Browns territory and faced a fourth-and-7 from the Cleveland 22-yard line. A gotta-have-it play.
The Chargers lined up in shotgun in a condensed formation. Keenan Allen was in the left slot. The play design had him running an out route.
Herbert took the snap, and as he hit the bottom of his drop, Allen set Browns cornerback Troy Hill up with a stutter-step break.
As Allen got free to the outside, Browns defensive tackle Malik Jackson got past Schofield and created pressure on Herbert.
Herbert stood in the pocket and delivered a pinpoint throw to the sideline, avoiding the trailing Hill.
Herbert scored on his scramble two plays later. This was a good example of Herbert operating in structure. And it is also a good example of just how much the weapons around Herbert are allowing him to flourish. Allen is so reliable in these situations because of his precise and shifty route running. He leads the league this season in first-down conversion receptions on third and fourth down with 12.
Two drives later, with the Chargers trailing 27-21, Herbert kept the possession alive with an out-of-structure third-down conversion.
The Chargers faced a third-and-5 from their own 44-yard line, and they, again, set up in shotgun. They had three receivers, or trips, to the right of formation with Joshua Palmer, Allen and Jalen Guyton. Tight end Jared Cook was isolated to the left of the formation.
Herbert took the snap, but before he could even hit the bottom of his drop, Myles Garrett won off the left edge against tackle Rashawn Slater.
Herbert sensed and saw the pressure and escaped through the open gap to his left.
As he extended the play, Herbert kept his eyes downfield. No receivers were open, but Guyton did a nice job of moving with his quarterback in an attempt to create a passing lane.
Herbert got to the numbers and pivoted into a throwing position.
The end zone view really displays the difficulty of this throw. Guyton is not really open. And Jackson is jumping right in Herbert’s eye line.
Herbert hesitated for just a millisecond to give himself a window over Jackson’s outstretched hands.
And he threw Guyton open with his ball placement.
Herbert hit Williams for a go-ahead 42-yard touchdown on the very next play.
The final throw I want to highlight came late in the fourth quarter. This, too, was an out-of-structure play.
The Browns had just driven 75 yards on five plays. They only attempted one pass on the drive, and it was a screen. The Chargers run defense was a mess. And it was clear at this point of the game that Herbert was going to have to win it.
The Chargers faced a third-and-5 from their own 30-yard line with less than four minutes remaining in regulation. They trailed 42-35.
Herbert, again, set up in shotgun. Guyton and Cook were aligned to the left, and Allen and Williams were aligned to the right. Allen was in the slot.
Herbert had a clean pocket initially when he hit the bottom of his drop.
But then the pocket started to collapse when Takkarist McKinley bull-rushed through right tackle Storm Norton.
Herbert escaped, stiff-arming McKinley to make it to the edge.
As Herbert broke free, his receivers were all covered.
Allen, in the scramble drill, extended his route downfield and toward the sideline. Hill was still in great position.
Herbert threw on the run.
His arm talent overcame Hill’s positioning.
The Chargers scored another go-ahead touchdown three plays later on a well-blocked red zone screen to Ekeler.
“You see him make the plays like that, it’s just this huge confidence builder for us,” center Corey Linsley said of Herbert’s off-script prowess. “It’s part of who he is.”
Is Herbert’s money-down performance sustainable? Perhaps not. We will have to answer that question later this season, when the sample is larger.
But the alternative is this: Justin Herbert is just that good when it matters the most.
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